Summary of the Day:
Russian forces launched a major attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight firing 117 total weapons including missiles and drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted most threats, but strikes damaged facilities in Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, and Lviv regions, causing temporary power outages across seven regions. While emergency shutdowns have been lifted, Ukrainian officials are asking citizens to limit energy usage.
Russian forces advanced in three directions – near Borova, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported approximately 600,000 Russian troops are currently operating in Ukraine. However, Ukrainian forces maintain tactical advantages in some areas, with a Russian military blogger noting that their superior drone and artillery capabilities are preventing Russian tanks from operating within 3-6 kilometers of certain front-line positions.
Ukraine and Russia conducted their first prisoner exchange of 2025, with each side exchanging 25 prisoners in a UAE-mediated swap. The returned Ukrainians included seriously injured and ill prisoners, as well as one civilian. Both countries have agreed to conduct regular exchanges throughout 2025.
Tensions continue to rise in the region as Russia announced plans to provide gas as “humanitarian aid” to Transnistria, a breakaway state within Moldova, while explicitly excluding the rest of Moldova from receiving aid. Meanwhile, Armenia is strengthening ties with Western allies, launching a new US-Armenia Strategic Partnership focusing on economic, security, defense, and governance cooperation, despite Russian criticism.
Picture of the Day:
A view of the outside through broken window in a residential building in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, after a Russian missile strike. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russia has announced plans to resume gas supplies as “humanitarian aid” to Transnistria, its Moscow-controlled breakaway state within Moldova, while maintaining the cutoff to the rest of Moldova, following meetings between Russian officials and Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky in Moscow where he confirmed the gas would be used for power generation, industry, and civilian use in Transnistria only. This selective resumption follows Gazprom’s January 1 suspension of gas to Moldova over disputed debt claims, which caused severe power outages in Transnistria, which remains dependent on Russian gas unlike Moldova proper, which has shifted to European energy sources. Russia’s targeted aid to the separatist region, where it has maintained troops since the 1990s, could potentially increase tensions between Moldova and Russia, further destabilizing regional peace in Eastern Europe.
Armenia is strengthening ties with Western allies while distancing itself from Russia, as demonstrated by the launch of a new US-Armenia Strategic Partnership. The partnership, formalized by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, focuses on economic, security, defense, and governance cooperation. Russia has responded negatively to both this development and Armenia’s recent approval of an EU accession bill, with Russian officials claiming these moves could destabilize the region and conflict with Armenia’s membership in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. This situation reflects growing tensions between Russia and its neighboring states, potentially increasing regional instability and mirroring patterns seen in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine where Russian influence has been challenged.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that Australia would take the “strongest action possible” if reports are confirmed that Russian forces executed Oscar Jenkins, a 32-year-old Australian teacher captured while fighting for Ukraine. Jenkins was reportedly captured in December near Kramatorsk, with Ukrainian sources telling 7News his body has been found. The incident would mark the first execution of an Australian volunteer by Russian forces in this war and represents a potential violation of the Geneva Conventions, which protect prisoners of war. Australia has summoned Russia’s ambassador for urgent clarification, highlighting growing international tensions over Russia’s treatment of foreign volunteers in the conflict.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk revealed that Russia has been planning terrorist attacks against international airlines, citing intelligence about plots to plant incendiary devices on cargo planes. This follows a New York Times report about U.S. warnings to Vladimir Putin regarding Russian intelligence operations targeting U.S.-bound flights. The threat was evidenced by suspicious fires in German and UK warehouses in July 2024. This revelation, shared during a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw, highlights an alarming escalation in Russia’s global threats beyond its war in Ukraine, potentially endangering international aviation security and civilian lives worldwide.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland called for increased NATO defense spending during a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw. Tusk argued that if all European NATO members matched Poland’s defense spending, their combined budget would be ten times Russia’s. This aligns with incoming U.S. President Trump’s push for higher NATO spending, potentially up to 5% of GDP from the current 2% target. Currently, 24 of 32 NATO members meet the minimum spending requirement, with Tusk emphasizing that increased European defense contributions would strengthen U.S.-European relations and enhance collective security.
The Path to Peace
Sources revealed that Russia plans to demand Ukraine sever NATO ties and become a neutral state with limited military capabilities in potential peace talks with U.S. President-elect Trump. While Russia may accept bilateral weapons agreements between Ukraine and NATO members, it insists these weapons cannot be used to reclaim territory. Moscow aims to maintain control of nearly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, though it may consider some territorial exchanges. Currently, Ukraine and Russia only communicate regarding prisoner exchanges, deported children’s return, and nuclear facility protection protocols in Qatar. Though Trump’s peace envoy Keith Kellogg emphasizes protecting Ukrainian sovereignty, an earlier proposed peace plan involving frozen front lines and delayed NATO membership was already rejected by Russia.
A new poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations reveals divided Ukrainian views on potential peace terms with Russia. Ukrainian expectations of outright victory have dropped significantly from 58% in May 2024 to 34% in November 2024, with 47% now expecting a compromise settlement. The survey, covering 24 countries globally, shows mixed reactions to President-elect Trump’s potential impact on peace prospects, with 39% of Ukrainians believing he’ll make peace more likely, while 35% think the opposite. While developing nations like India, China, and Brazil view Trump’s presidency optimistically, U.S. allies in Europe and Asia are more skeptical about his ability to secure peace in Ukraine.
Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys announced that his country would consider sending troops to Ukraine if requested. The proposal for international peacekeeping forces has gained support, particularly as French President Emmanuel Macron champions European military involvement in Ukraine. The initiative has been discussed in recent meetings between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, with plans for further discussions as they prepare for potential changes in U.S. support under incoming President Donald Trump.
The Biden administration is reportedly proposing to European allies that $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets be transferred to a special account as leverage in peace negotiations. The plan, which would only allow Russia to access these funds through negotiations with Ukraine, has support from incoming Trump administration officials including Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. However, European governments remain hesitant, citing legal concerns, though they have agreed to use the assets’ annual income of $3.2 billion to partially fund Ukraine assistance programs.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s military situation shows growing challenges as President Zelensky revealed that 880,000 Ukrainian soldiers face 600,000 Russian troops. Speaking in Warsaw, he noted that while Russian forces are concentrated in specific areas, giving them local advantages, Ukrainian forces must defend the entire country.
A Russian military blogger reported that Ukrainian drones and artillery are giving Ukrainian tanks an advantage in certain areas of the front line. According to the source, Russian forces cannot safely deploy tanks within 3-6 kilometers of areas where Ukraine has concentrated its drone and artillery units due to their accuracy and effectiveness. The blogger noted that Russian forces lack sufficient drones and artillery to counter this advantage, and while Russia does have advanced drone models, they are only available in priority areas. This situation may impact Russia’s ability to replace tank losses, as current production rates cannot keep up with battlefield losses.
Ukrainian partisan group “Atesh” reported that Russian forces placed military equipment at the Yevpatoria-Tovarna freight station in occupied Crimea. The group noted that while Russia added the station to its military logistics network, they lack sufficient resources to properly secure it.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast but failed to make advances. While fighting continues around several settlements near Sudzha, including Kruglenkoye, Nikolaevka, Nikolayevo-Darino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Pogrebki, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and Makhnovka, claims of Russian forces capturing Makhnovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye remain unconfirmed.
North Korea has instructed its soldiers in the Kursk region to commit suicide rather than be captured by Ukrainian forces, according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. By early January, around 300 North Korean troops had been killed and 2,700 wounded, largely due to their inexperience with modern warfare tactics, particularly drone combat. Ukraine first reported North Korean troops in Kursk in October 2024. While one captured North Korean soldier died from injuries in December, two more were recently captured – one by Special Operations Forces and another by paratroopers. One captive carried a Russian military ID from the Republic of Tuva and revealed they received only one week of training with Russian forces.
An oil depot in Russia’s Voronezh region, about 465 kilometers south of Moscow, caught fire after multiple drone strikes.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe northeast of Kharkiv City without making advances, while the Ukrainian National Guard’s Khartiya brigade drone operators conducted successful operations in the Kharkiv sector, eliminating 20 Russian soldiers, destroying Russian positions and a fuel truck, and notably destroying a T-80 tank valued at $2-4 million, which is distinguished by its gas turbine engine that requires complex maintenance and high fuel consumption. Though Russian forces continue to attempt assaults near Vovchansk, Lozova, Zapadne, and Dvorichna, their attacks in the Kharkiv sector have generally decreased as they shift focus to other areas.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk but failed to advance. Fighting occurred in three areas: northeast of Kupyansk near Topoli, east near Petropavlivka, and southeast near Tabaivka.
Borova
Russian forces made advances northeast and southeast of Borova confirmed by footage showing their progress near Vyshneve and west of Makiivka. Combat continued in several areas around Borova, including Nova Kruhlyanivka, Bohuslavka, Kopanky, Makiivka, Hrekivka, Novoserhiivka, and Tverdokhlibove.
Lyman
Russian forces attacked near Lyman but made no advances, with fighting occurring near Terny, Kolodyazi, and Zarichne. A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that their drones and artillery are highly effective in the area, claiming to destroy up to 90% of Russian equipment. Ukrainian forces reportedly maintain drone superiority in the region.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks around Siversk targeting areas near Bilohorivka (northeast), Verkhnokamyanske (east), and near Vyimka and Ivano-Darivka (southeast).
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made progress near Chasiv Yar capturing territory within the city’s central Refractory Plant. They continued attacks in and around Chasiv Yar, including the nearby settlements of Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Oleksandro-Shultyne.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in northern and northwestern Toretsk as confirmed by video evidence. While Russian military bloggers claim advances near Shcherbynivka west of Toretsk, these claims remain unverified. Fighting continued in and around Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
Ukraine’s National Guard reported that the Azov Brigade captured 23 Russian soldiers near Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast. Some Russians surrendered voluntarily while others were found hiding in basements. The prisoners will be transferred to authorities with hopes of future exchanges.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued attacks near Pokrovsk, though no confirmed advances were made. While Russian sources claimed gains near multiple settlements including Udachne, Yasenove, Novoyeliyzavetivka, Novoserhiivka, Uspenivka, Zvirove, and Kotlyne, these remain unverified. Fighting occurred across numerous locations around Pokrovsk, including Nova Poltavka, Tarasivka, Baranivka, Novotoretske, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, and Chunyshyne. Ukrainian officials report increased Russian guided bomb strikes and drone operations in the area due to favorable weather conditions, though they note Russian forces lack experienced pilots for advanced fiber-optic drones.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kurakhove, though no advances were confirmed. While Russian sources claimed advances west of Petropavlivka and southeast of Dachne, these remain unverified. Fighting continued around several settlements including Petropavlivka, Dachne, Andriivka, and Kostiantynopil.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction but did not make any confirmed advances. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced to Vremivka (immediately west of Velyka Novosilka). Russian forces continued attacking near Velyka Novosilka itself, Vremivka, and Neskuchne (southwest of Velyka Novosilka).
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Limited combat occurred in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne. No changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in the Dnipro direction but failed to make any confirmed territorial gains.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, firing approximately 117 weapons including over 40 rockets and 70 drones, with missiles launched from 13 strategic bombers, specifically targeting energy facilities and two major gas storage facilities in western Ukraine – the Oparske facility in Drohobych and another in Striy. While Ukrainian forces intercepted most threats including about 30 missiles, the strikes damaged energy facilities in Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, and Lviv regions, as well as residential areas in Kirovohrad, causing temporary power outages across seven regions: Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad. The attack, which came in apparent retaliation for Ukraine’s recent massive strike on Russian military facilities up to 1,100 kilometers inside Russian territory, led to emergency blackouts in the affected regions, though these shutdowns have since been lifted with Ukrainian officials asking citizens to limit energy usage, and Naftogaz reporting their gas facilities continue operating normally despite the attacks.
Ukraine and Russia conducted their first prisoner exchange of 2025, with each side exchanging 25 prisoners in a deal mediated by the United Arab Emirates, where the returned Ukrainian group, aged 24 to 60, included military personnel who defended Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Mariupol (including Azovstal), and Kherson regions, as well as one civilian from the Kyiv region, with many of the returned prisoners being seriously injured or ill, including wounded servicemen from the Kursk region who suffered various injuries due to poor captivity conditions. Both countries have agreed to conduct regular prisoner exchanges throughout 2025, with Ukraine focusing on returning its most vulnerable prisoners first.
A Ukrainian woman, Svitlana, received a call from a Russian-accented man named Dmitry who offered to improve conditions for her husband, a POW medic, in exchange for acts of sabotage. Following protocol, she reported the contact to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and recorded the conversations. Dmitry demanded she firebomb military facilities and railway equipment, promising contact with her husband in return. When she ultimately refused, he threatened her husband’s life. The SBU reports that nearly half of Ukrainian POW families face similar recruitment attempts, though few cooperate. The story concluded positively when Svitlana’s husband Dima was released in autumn 2024, confirming he hadn’t faced retaliation for her refusal to assist the Russians.
The High Council of Justice in Ukraine sparked controversy by appointing Oleksandra Shulika as a judge in Kirovohrad Oblast’s Onufriivka District Court, despite her having visited Russia and occupied Crimea between 2015 and 2019. Mykhailo Zhernakov, head of the Dejure Foundation watchdog group, criticized the appointment as “absolutely unacceptable,” highlighting ongoing concerns about Russian-linked officials in Ukraine’s judiciary.
President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk following a breakthrough agreement on World War II exhumations related to the Volyn massacre. The agreement, which will begin exhumations in April 2025, marks a significant step in addressing historical tensions between the two nations. This diplomatic progress strengthens Polish-Ukrainian relations at a crucial time as both countries face challenges from Russian aggression.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 16
Russian forces struck a multi-story building in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, injuring eight people, including two children.
A Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast resulted in the death of a 52-year-old man and injured a 74-year-old woman.
Russian forces attacked Kherson city and 36 nearby settlements, resulting in seven injuries.
The scene of a Russian attack on the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk. (Office of the Prosecutor General/Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
During his Senate confirmation hearing, Trump’s Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth faced scrutiny for omitting Russia’s invasion from his opening remarks, though when questioned, he acknowledged Russia as the aggressor while emphasizing ending the war. Meanwhile, Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, who previously voted against a $61 billion Ukraine aid package, stated at his confirmation hearing that both sides must make concessions to end the conflict – proposing that Russia’s concession would be halting further advances while Ukraine would cede currently occupied territories (approximately 20% of the country). Though praising Ukrainian bravery, Rubio presented these compromises as “realistic” despite Ukraine’s consistent refusal to recognize Russian control of its territories, and as incoming Secretary of State, he would be positioned to lead potential peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow after Trump takes office on January 20.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting over 150 entities and individuals involved in Russia’s sanctions evasion schemes, including Russia’s state-run Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant company and its CEO Vladislav Isaev, an entity Moscow created to control Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant (Europe’s largest nuclear facility) which Russian forces have occupied since March 2022. The measures specifically address a Russia-China payment system facilitating trade in sensitive goods, including companies in Russia’s defense and energy sectors, while also targeting Kyrgyzstan’s Keremet Bank for coordinating with sanctioned Russian banks.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1480
814150 |
Tanks +11
9791 |
Artillery +40
22015 |
Arm. Veh. +20
20368 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia’s “Time of Heroes” veteran program is expanding its reach in government, with over 61,000 veterans applying in total. Program director Alexey Komissarov reported that 17,500 veterans have applied during the current application period, and 18 participants have already secured positions in federal and regional government roles.
Russia continues recruiting foreign fighters, with a Central African Republic (CAR) soldier recently killed near Novoivanovka in Kursk Oblast. The soldier, who joined in September 2024, represents the first confirmed CAR casualty in the region. Military sources indicate more CAR citizens are currently fighting in Kursk Oblast.
Russian authorities are reportedly detaining recently released Ukrainian prisoners in an Orenburg Oblast migration center, where military officials are pressuring them to join the Russian military. The authorities are offering freedom, money, and Russian citizenship in exchange for signing military contracts.
A Russian insider revealed that General Yevgeny Burdinsky, Head of the General Staff’s Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate, is being blamed for inadequate training of Russian forces. The source claims Burdinsky’s decision to form new units with inexperienced recruits led to the failure to defend against Ukraine’s 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive, effectively crippling several motorized rifle brigades. Burdinsky reportedly keeps his position due to his relationship with General Valery Gerasimov.
Russia plans to expand production of EW-resistant “Prince Vandal Novgorodsky” fiber-optic drones through multiple assembly plants near the frontline, according to Scientific and Production Center Director Alexey Chadayev.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com