Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces conducted successful strikes on two Russian oil facilities. The targets were the KalugaNeftProduct oil depot near Lyudinovo in Kaluga Oblast and the state-owned “March 8” oil depot near Didilovo in Tula Oblast. In addition, Ukrainian forces targeted key Russian air defense infrastructure in occupied territories, striking a “Nebo-SVU” radar detection system in Kherson Oblast and both a Buk-M3 air defense system and S-300 radar station in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have assembled a significant strike group south of Pokrovsk. The group is conducting offensive operations between Dachenske and Novotroitske, having cut the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezheva Highway. Russian forces are pushing attacks near Udachne, Kotlyne, Zvirove, and along the Solone River, while making small advances in the Dachenske-Chyushchyne and Zelene-Chyushchyne areas south of Pokrovsk.
Russian command has also shifted forces to intensify operations east of Pokrovsk, moving Russian forces from Kurakhove. Russian forces are attacking multiple locations including Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tarasivka, aiming to create a salient for a potential northeast encirclement of Pokrovsk. While Russian forces continue to make gains in their attempts to encircle Pokrovsk, their advances remain slow due to limited mechanized maneuver capabilities.
In diplomatic developments, NATO and Georgia are preparing for joint military exercises in March 2025, with Azerbaijan participating and Armenia observing, representing ongoing efforts to strengthen military cooperation in the Caucasus region.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian soldiers of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade ‘Kholodnyi Yar’ participate in tactical training exercises in a rural area in Ukraine. (Piotr Sobik / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
NATO and Georgia are preparing for a joint military exercise in March 2025, with Azerbaijan participating and Armenia observing. The exercise, discussed during a meeting between NATO-Georgia Joint Training and Evaluation Center Commander Colonel David Gagua and NATO Joint Forces Training Center Commander Major General Bogdan Rycerski, continues a series of training exercises aimed at certifying NATO ally and partner countries’ military units. This collaboration represents ongoing efforts to strengthen military cooperation between NATO and partners in the Caucasus region, potentially affecting regional security dynamics.
President-elect Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are taking steps to improve US-China relations, with Trump considering a visit to China early in his presidency. During their recent phone call on January 17, they discussed critical issues including trade, fentanyl, TikTok, and Taiwan, with Xi emphasizing Taiwan’s importance to China’s sovereignty. While Xi declined to attend Trump’s inauguration, he is sending Vice President Han Zheng, suggesting openness to dialogue. This potential diplomatic reset comes at a crucial time as both nations navigate complex challenges, including China’s indirect support of Russia in the Ukraine war. The outcome of these discussions could significantly impact global stability, particularly regarding trade relations, Taiwan’s status, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has freed 23 political prisoners convicted of “extremist crimes,” bringing the total pardoned since July to over 200. While this appears to be a political move ahead of Belarus’s 2025 presidential election, human rights organization Viasna reports that nearly 1,300 political prisoners remain imprisoned, with 120 new prisoners added in November and December alone. This ongoing political repression under Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994 and seeks a seventh term, continues to destabilize the region and raise concerns about democratic freedoms in Belarus.
The Path to Peace
Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius expressed openness to deploying German troops to Ukraine to secure a potential demilitarized zone following any ceasefire agreement with Russia and advocated for increasing German defense spending to around 3% of GDP, contrasting with US President-elect Trump’s call for NATO members to spend 5%, which Chancellor Scholz has already rejected. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have both discussed deploying troops with President Zelensky, though Ukraine would only accept peacekeepers with a clear path to NATO membership, while German opposition leader Friedrich Merz supports joining such a mission but stipulates it would require Russian consent.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
In December 2024, Russian forces deployed chemical weapons 434 times in Ukraine, bringing the total to 5,389 recorded cases since February 2023, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. The attacks used prohibited K-51 and RG-VO anti-riot munitions, along with unspecified chemical agents. Over 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been hospitalized for chemical poisoning, with three fatalities reported. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons confirmed the use of CS riot control agent in Ukraine. In response, Ukraine’s Security Service eliminated Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia’s chemical defense forces, who had been charged with using banned chemical weapons.
Maria Zaitseva, a 24-year-old Belarusian volunteer soldier fighting for Ukraine, was killed in action near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. Previously wounded during Belarus’ 2020 anti-government protests in Minsk, where she suffered severe injuries from a flash grenade, Zaitseva later joined Ukraine’s 2nd International Legion Battalion. Belarusian opposition leader Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya called her “an icon of our revolution.” Zaitseva died just one day after her 24th birthday, adding to the more than 60 Belarusian volunteers who have been killed fighting for Ukraine since 2014.
Ukrainian forces targeted and struck key Russian air defense infrastructure in occupied territories. The strikes hit a “Nebo-SVU” radar detection system in Kherson Oblast and both a Buk-M3 air defense system and S-300 radar station in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian military is currently assessing the damage from these strikes.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, specifically moving west of Malaya Loknya near Sudzha. Foggy conditions have limited both sides’ ability to conduct aerial operations in the region. Russian military units are reportedly active near several settlements including Pogrebki, Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, Aleksandriya, and Nikolayevo-Darino.
Ukrainian forces conducted overnight drone strikes on two Russian oil facilities: the KalugaNeftProduct oil depot near Lyudinovo in Kaluga Oblast, owned by a Rosneft subsidiary and located 124 miles from the Ukrainian border serving as a logistics center for Russian military forces, and the state-owned “March 8” oil depot near Didilovo in Uzlovaya, Tula Oblast, where at least 10 strikes were reported resulting in a fire at a fuel storage tank with no casualties reported, with Russian officials acknowledging drone activity in both regions.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces successfully recaptured positions in southern Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kupyansk, though no confirmed advances were made. While Russian sources claimed advances near Topoli, in Petropavlivka, and the capture of Novomlynsk, these claims remain unverified. Russian attacks occurred near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, and Stepova Novoselivka. A Ukrainian servicemember reported that Russian forces are now conducting infantry assaults rather than mechanized attacks due to vehicle losses and have not attempted to cross the Oskil River due to terrain challenges and Ukrainian defenses.
Borova
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction. While Russian sources claimed advances southeast of Zahryzove, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Lozova, Pishchane, Zeleny Hai, Kruhlyakivka, Pershotravneve, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, and Tverdokhlibove.
Lyman
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction, conducting attacks near Terny, Novolyubivka, Novosadove, and Zarichne, but made no advances.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Siversk focusing attacks near Bilohorivka but making no advances. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are using protected “shed tanks” and motorized vehicles to transport assault groups in the area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made advances in Chasiv Yar with video evidence showing Ukrainian forces engaging Russian armored vehicles near Dniprovska Street in the central part of the settlement, while multiple Russian units are attempting to secure northern Chasiv Yar and have established a presence in the Pivnichnyi Microraion area, with fighting continuing within Chasiv Yar and in nearby settlements of Stupochky and Bila Hora; Russian sources claim to have captured the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant, which is confirmed by Ukraine’s military conducting an air strike on Russian forces occupying this facility after Ukrainian troops had withdrawn, causing Russian casualties according to Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets, as the city has seen intensified fighting in recent months with Russia now using armored vehicles in its assault.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued attacking Toretsk with fighting occurring within the town and near the settlements of Krymske and Shcherbynivka. According to Ukrainian officials, while Russian forces have captured a significant portion of Toretsk’s buildings, Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the town. Russian forces are reportedly using platoon-sized units of about 20 personnel and employing “kamikaze camel” tactics, where unarmed soldiers advance to drop supplies for future assault groups.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces have assembled a significant strike group south of Pokrovsk, comprising four brigades and three regiments, conducting offensive operations between Dachenske and Novotroitske. They have succeeded in cutting the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezheva Highway and are pushing attacks near Udachne, Kotlyne, Zvirove, and along the Solone River, while making small advances in the Dachenske-Chyushchyne and Zelene-Chyushchyne areas. A Ukrainian drone unit commander reported that Russian forces are gathering troops west of Pokrovsk in an attempt to encircle the town, focusing on cutting the railway line between Kotlyne and Udachne, while also advancing near Novooleksandrivka, Novoserhiivka, and Sribne, and attempting to cut off the E-50 Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk highway.
Russian military command has shifted forces to intensify operations east of Pokrovsk, moving units from Kurakhove to join attacks near Zelene Pole, following an earlier redeployment of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade to the Vozdvyzhenka area. Their forces are attacking towards Yelyzavetivka, and around Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tarasivka, aiming to create a salient that could allow them to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast. This redeployment from Kurakhove suggests a shift in Russian priorities following their capture of that town in late December 2024, though the combat readiness of these redeployed units remains unclear. While Russian forces are likely to make some gains in their attempts to encircle Pokrovsk from both northeast and southwest, their advances are expected to remain slow, as their current capabilities don’t suggest they can achieve the rapid mechanized maneuvers needed to quickly break through Ukrainian defenses and successfully encircle significant Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers from the 48th Separate Assault Battalion, recently redeployed to Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, publicly challenged the removal of their commander Lenur Islyamov in a video message to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, arguing that changing leadership during critical combat operations threatens their effectiveness. The soldiers credited Islyamov with leading successful operations and maintaining positions with a battalion of mostly volunteers, while also reporting lacking essential intelligence after their redeployment.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces continued operations near Kurakhove with no confirmed advances. They reportedly hold positions on Dachne’s eastern outskirts and are moving toward Zelenivka from Yantarne. Multiple Russian units are conducting attacks in several directions: northwest of Kurakhove along the Slovyanka-Petropavlivka line, from Shevchenko towards Andriivka, and near Yantarne and Zelenivka. Fighting continues around Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Dachne, Kostiantynopil, Ulakly, and Yantarne, with Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacking in southeastern Dachne.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces have advanced into eastern Velyka Novosilka, reaching a cemetery in the eastern part of the settlement as confirmed by video evidence. Following their capture of nearby Vremivka and recent advances, Russian forces have cut off all Ukrainian ground supply routes into Velyka Novosilka, putting pressure on Ukrainian logistics. While Russian forces are likely to capture Velyka Novosilka in the coming weeks, their advance may be slowed by the settlement’s location near several rivers, which historically have posed challenges for Russian military operations.
Russian forces reportedly advanced in several areas around Velyka Novosilka. Russian sources claim their forces reached Andriya Sheptytskoho Street in western Velyka Novosilka and made progress along Horishnia Street in the east, as well as in the northern outskirts. However, a damaged bridge between Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka may limit Russian equipment movement.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited attacks near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne without making advances.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Dnipro direction but made no advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major aerial attack against Ukraine, using four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 39 Shahed and other drones from multiple locations in Russia. Ukrainian forces intercepted two ballistic missiles over Kyiv Oblast and 24 drones across twelve oblasts, while 14 drones were disabled by electronic warfare. The attacks resulted in three civilian deaths in Kyiv City, where a missile strike damaged the Lukyanivska metro station and a non-residential building. Additional strikes hit infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia City and an industrial facility in Pavlohrad. The Romanian Ministry of Defense reported a possible Russian drone crash near Plauru, Romania during these operations.
Naftogaz’s subsidiary Ukrgasvydobuvannya increased its gas production to 13.9 billion cubic meters in 2024, up from 13.2 billion in 2023. The company, Ukraine’s largest gas producer, drilled 83 new wells in 2024 and expanded its directional drilling operations to access hard-to-reach deposits. Despite Russia’s invasion and the loss of some eastern production facilities, Ukraine’s gas production has remained relatively stable, dropping only 3% compared to pre-war levels. Production has actually increased since the full-scale invasion, helping Ukraine maintain energy security during winter heating seasons amid Russian attacks on infrastructure.
Ukrainian authorities uncovered that a building materials company in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shipped stainless steel profiles to Russia through a Middle Eastern intermediary in 2022. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) says these materials were used in Russian nuclear weapons research facilities. The company’s owner and three employees have been charged with aiding an aggressor state and face up to 12 years in prison if convicted.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested a Kyiv Metro engineer who allegedly led a Russian spy network that helped direct missile strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv. The engineer, recruited by Russia’s FSB in Moscow in 2015, created a network after the 2022 invasion that included a former Ukrainian Railways employee and a truck driver. Two suspects have been detained and charged with treason, facing possible life sentences, while a third suspect remains abroad. The network reportedly tracked Ukrainian troop movements and provided intelligence for Russian aerial attacks.
Ukrainian authorities have charged former lawmaker and billionaire Vadym Novinsky with high treason and inciting religious hatred. As a sponsor of the Moscow-backed church in Ukraine and member of the now-banned pro-Russian Opposition Bloc, Novinsky allegedly promoted Russian propaganda since Moscow’s 2014 invasion. According to investigators, he acted as a “handler” for the Russian Orthodox Church under Patriarch Kirill’s direction. After Russia’s full-scale invasion, Novinsky fled Ukraine but continues to assist Russian information operations. If convicted, he faces up to 15 years in prison.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 9 INJURIES: 38+
Russia’s missile attack on Kyiv’s Shevchenkivskyi district killed three people – a 41-year-old woman and two men aged 25 and 43 – and injured three others when wreckage from downed missiles fell on the city, damaging Ukraine’s first McDonald’s restaurant which opened near Lukyanivska metro station in 1997 (with McDonald’s Ukraine confirming their staff evacuated safely and promising to repair the damage), while also damaging the metro station’s glass entrance causing trains to bypass the station, a water pipeline, residential buildings, an administrative building, a business center, a store, and local infrastructure, setting several cars on fire, with debris also found in the city’s Desnianskyi district.
Russia attacked Zaporizhzhia injuring at least 10 people. The strike partially destroyed an industrial facility and damaged St. Andrew’s Cathedral in the city.
A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killed five people and injured 19 others, including four children. The victims included four women aged 61, 50, 43, and 22, and a 20-year-old man. The attack damaged multiple high-rise buildings, houses, and an educational institution.
A Russian attack on Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast resulted in one person being injured.
Russian forces attacked 31 settlements across Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson killing one person and injuring five others.
A woman walks past a damaged McDonald’s fast-food restaurant following a Russian missile attack on Kyiv. (Tetiana Dzhafarova/AFP via Getty Images)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Starting September 2025, Ukrainian university students must complete mandatory basic military training or face expulsion, Deputy Defense Minister Serhii Melnyk announced. The program includes 90 hours of theoretical study required for all students aged 18-25, and 210 hours of practical training mandatory only for men. Students must pass an exam and take a military oath to continue their studies. This initiative is part of broader educational reforms in response to Russia’s invasion, including updated defense education in schools and drone training programs.
Russia News
Displaced residents from Kursk Oblast’s border regions protested in Kursk City, demanding housing certificates and better financial support from the Russian government. Governor Alexander Khinshtein has agreed to meet with protesters between January 19-25 to address their concerns.
Russia has rejected the newly announced 100-year partnership between Ukraine and the UK, particularly objecting to potential cooperation in the Azov Sea. During British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s January 16 visit to Kyiv, the agreement was established to strengthen military cooperation in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the agreement a “PR campaign” and claimed the Azov Sea as Russian “internal” waters. The Kremlin expressed specific concern about British military presence in the region, which Russia considers its territory due to proximity to Russian borders, occupied Ukrainian areas, and annexed Crimea.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1580
818740 |
Tanks +8
9811 |
Artillery +15
22055 |
Arm. Veh. +18
20412 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com