Summary of the Day:
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove while suffering massive casualties, with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief reporting over 434,000 Russian casualties including 150,000 killed in action during 2024. Russian forces prioritized territorial gains despite these high losses, particularly during intense infantry assaults from September to November.
Putin expressed willingness to negotiate with the US about the Ukraine war but maintained his original demands for Ukraine’s surrender. At a Russian Security Council meeting, Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated openness to negotiations with a potential Trump administration while insisting any peace deal must address their claimed concerns about NATO expansion and treatment of ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces launched successful strikes against Russian military infrastructure, including the Gorbunov Aircraft Plant in Kazan, Tatarstan, which produces Tu-160 strategic bombers. Additional strikes hit targets in Kaluga Oblast, including fuel tanks in Lyudinovo and an enterprise near Kaluga City. These strikes have significantly impacted Russian combat capabilities, with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reporting that Russian forces have cut their daily artillery shell usage by half, with field reports confirming decreased Russian artillery activity in some areas.
Picture of the Day:
A mural depicting a Ukrainian tractor pulling a Russian tank is pictured on an apartment block in Kharkiv’s Saltivka district. Ukraine faces a pivotal moment in its war with Russia as its biggest military ally, the United States, inaugurates a new president and with it a new foreign policy. (Carl Court / Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Moldovan and Transnistrian officials are negotiating gas supply arrangements through European markets. Transnistrian President Krasnoselsky agreed to accept gas deliveries through Moldova’s Moldovagaz company, reversing earlier refusals. However, Moldovan President Sandu expressed concerns about the proposal’s structure, particularly regarding which companies would be involved in the purchase and delivery process, emphasizing the need to comply with Moldovan law and international sanctions. Russia’s potential role in financing gas purchases for Transnistria adds complexity to the regional energy situation.
North Korea appears open to strengthening ties with Belarus, as indicated by a statement from Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. As Vice Chair of the Workers’ Party Central Committee, she expressed willingness to develop bilateral relations but requested Belarus to clarify its intentions. This potential alliance between North Korea and Belarus could further destabilize global security, particularly given North Korea’s recent military support to Russia and Belarus’s role as a Russian ally.
Sweden has deployed 550 troops and armored vehicles, including 48 CV90s and 12 tanks, to Latvia as part of a NATO multinational brigade, marking its largest military commitment since joining NATO in March 2024. The forces will be stationed at Camp Valdemar near Adazi, northeast of Riga, for an initial six-month mission. This deployment strengthens NATO’s eastern flank along the Russian and Belarusian borders, coming at a time of heightened regional tensions. The move follows Sweden’s recent warnings to its citizens about possible conflict with Russia and reflects growing concerns about security in the Baltic region. This deployment represents a significant shift in Nordic defense posture and highlights increasing military preparedness along NATO’s eastern border.
The European Commission is developing a plan to eliminate Russian fossil fuels from EU markets, according to spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. While the EU has already cut all Russian coal imports and most oil imports, along with reducing Russian gas by two-thirds, some Russian gas deliveries to Europe continue. Brussels is working on a comprehensive roadmap to completely phase out remaining Russian energy imports, with the strategy expected to be presented within the Commission’s first 100 days. This effort reflects ongoing tensions between Russia and the EU, with energy independence becoming a key factor in European security and stability.
The Path to Peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed openness to negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Ukraine, though he maintained his original demands including Ukraine’s surrender, withdrawal from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, staying out of NATO, reducing its military, and removing its current government – the same conditions set before invading in 2022. At a Russian Security Council meeting, Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated willingness to negotiate specifically with a potential Trump administration. While Trump claims he could end the war within 24 hours and wants to meet Putin “very quickly” after inauguration, his proposed Ukraine peace envoy Keith Kellogg has extended this timeline to 100 days, and his team is preparing a settlement plan starting with a phone call. Switzerland and Serbia have offered to host a potential summit, though Ukrainian President Zelensky’s participation remains undecided according to Trump’s national security adviser pick Mike Waltz, who noted that if Russia proves unwilling to negotiate, the US might consider sending Ukraine additional long-range weapons. A recent proposal including freezing front lines and delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership has already been rejected by Russia, while Kellogg emphasized their goal is to “save Ukraine and their sovereignty,” not to make concessions to Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
A Russian military instructor reported that ongoing quality control issues with Russian artillery shells remain unresolved since first being identified in May 2024. The problem stems from inconsistent gunpowder amounts in shells, affecting accuracy in combat. Military leadership has reportedly prohibited soldiers from checking the gunpowder content while failing to address the underlying manufacturing issue.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that highly-trained Air Force specialists will not be transferred to front-line infantry units, despite recent reports of Air Force personnel transfers to Ground Forces. While some military transfers are deemed “a necessary step” to strengthen combat brigades, Syrskyi emphasized that specialists with advanced training, particularly in aircraft maintenance, are protected. He noted that current mobilization efforts are insufficient to meet front-line needs as fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Border Guards spokesperson Andriy Demchenko reported that Ukrainian forces stopped a Russian mechanized attack along the Sumy Oblast-Kursk Oblast border in January 2025. He noted that Russian forces have made several attacks in the Sumy Oblast border region since the start of the year.
Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk reported that Russia has increased attacks on Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts using guided and unguided glide bombs, in an apparent effort to stretch Ukrainian defenses along the border.
Russian forces have converted the former museum submarine base in Balaklava, Crimea, into an active military facility. The Atesh guerrilla movement reported that the underground complex, known as Object 825GTS, is being fortified with marine barriers to protect against drones and sabotage. In a separate operation, Atesh identified Russian military boats and equipment stationed at Cape Tarkhankut near Olenivka, which are reportedly being prepared for deployment to the Kherson sector. The guerrillas have shared this intelligence with Ukrainian Defense Forces and continue to monitor Russian activities in the region.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast focusing on areas around Sudzha. While no confirmed advances were made, Russian forces targeted areas near Nikolskiy, Viktorovka, and Kurilovka. Ukrainian forces reportedly countered with attacks near Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and Makhnovka.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against the Gorbunov Aircraft Plant in Kazan, Tatarstan, which produces Tu-160 strategic bombers. While Tatarstan officials claimed they intercepted all drones with no damage, footage showed a fire at the plant. Additional Ukrainian strikes hit targets in Kaluga Oblast, including fuel tanks in Lyudinovo and an enterprise near Kaluga City, as part of Ukraine’s broader campaign to target Russian military infrastructure.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian strikes on Russian military facilities, including oil refineries and ammunition production sites, have successfully reduced Russian combat capabilities. According to Syrskyi, Russian forces have cut their daily artillery shell usage by half, with field reports confirming decreased Russian artillery activity in some areas.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City but made no advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Kupyansk area without confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances in northern Dvorichna northeast of Kupyansk, this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces attacked several locations around Kupyansk including Stroivka near the border, Kutkivka to the north, Petropavlivka to the east, and Pishchane to the southeast.
Borova
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Borova on January 20. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Novoyehorivka and made advances near Bohuslavka and Zeleny Hai, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Borova including Zahryzove, Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Nadiya, Zeleny Hai, Novoyehorivka, Novoserhiivka, and Makiivka.
Lyman
Russian forces continued attacks in the Lyman area without confirmed advances. Russian military bloggers claimed to have captured heights north of Ivanivka and advanced near Terny, but these claims remain unverified. Russian forces attacked several locations around Lyman including Zelena Dolyna to the north; Novosadove, Kolodyazi, and Terny to the northeast; and Zarichne and the Serebryanske forest area to the east, where Russian special forces drone units are reportedly operating.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Verkhnokamyanske east of Siversk and Ivano-Darivka to the southeast but made no advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks around Chasiv Yar without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed to have captured the Desyatnyi Microraion in northern Chasiv Yar and advanced near the Refractory Plant in the center, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces attacked within Chasiv Yar itself and nearby locations including Stupochky and Bila Hora to the south.
Toretsk
Geolocated footage from January 18-20 confirms Russian forces made recent advances in southern and northern Toretsk. While Russian sources claimed to have captured a waste heap northwest of Toretsk and are attempting to bypass the city from the north near Krymske, these claims are unverified. Russian forces continued attacks within Toretsk and nearby locations including Krymske and Dyliivka to the north, Ozaryanivka to the northeast, and Shcherbynivka to the southwest. A Ukrainian officer reported that Russian claims of advances near Krymske and Ozaryanivka are false, noting that Russia is instead using small reconnaissance groups to probe Ukrainian positions around Toretsk.
Pokrovsk
Geolocated footage from January 19 confirms Russian forces advanced at Pokrovske Mine no. 2 north of Kotlyne and in southern Kotlyne. While Russian sources claimed multiple advances around Pokrovsk, including captures of Kotlyne and advances near Myrnohrad, Mykolaivka, and Oleksandropil, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces attacked numerous locations in the Pokrovsk area, including Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Nadiivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novotroitske, and Novoandriivka. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have reduced infantry assaults due to personnel shortages and are attempting to enter Pokrovsk from the west, rarely using armored vehicles and redeploying units from other areas to support the offensive.
The commander of Ukraine’s “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade has been detained for failing to report violations within his unit. The brigade, meant to showcase Ukrainian-French military cooperation, has faced serious organizational problems. Despite receiving French training and equipment including AMX10 vehicles, Caesar howitzers, and German Leopard 2A4 tanks, an investigation by journalist Yurii Butusov revealed widespread desertion with over 1,700 soldiers going AWOL between March and November. Of the 1,924 soldiers trained in France, only 51 had more than a year of military experience. The unit, currently deployed near Pokrovsk, lost 2,500 qualified personnel before training began and has struggled with proper recruitment. The commander faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted.
Kurakhove Region
Geolocated footage from January 19-20 confirms Russian forces advanced south of Petropavlivka and southeast of Kostiantynopil near Kurakhove. While Russian sources claimed additional advances west of Petropavlivka and Slovyanka, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kurakhove, including Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, and Shevchenko to the northwest; Dachne, Andriivka, Kostiantynopil, and Ulakly to the west; and Sukhi Yaly, Zelenivka, Yantarne and Rozlyv to the southwest. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured Shevchenko. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack near Zelenivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued attacks around Velyka Novosilka without confirmed advances. While one Russian military blogger claimed Russian forces captured all of Velyka Novosilka and another reported advances in its northeastern section, other Russian sources disputed these claims. Russian forces continued attacking Velyka Novosilka itself and near Pryvilne to the northwest, with Russian drone units reportedly operating in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near the settlement of Novoandriivka, northwest of Robotyne but failed to make any territorial gains.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Kozatskyi Island, northeast of Kherson City, but made no advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 141 drones, including Shahed models, from multiple regions including Millerovo, Oryol, Bryansk, Kursk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. They also fired an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Kursk Oblast toward Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces intercepted 93 drones across 13 oblasts, while 47 drones were disabled by electronic warfare. Two drones reportedly entered Russian airspace. Later, Russia struck Shostka Hromada in Sumy Oblast, damaging homes and infrastructure.
In the past week, Russia launched a massive aerial campaign against Ukraine, deploying approximately 550 attack drones, 60 missiles, and 660 aerial bombs. Major attacks targeted Lviv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Khmelnytskyi regions, with a missile strike on Kyiv killing three people and wounding three others. Ukrainian forces intercepted 33 missiles and 311 drones, while 136 additional drones failed to reach their targets. President Zelensky called for more international support, particularly Patriot air defense systems, while Ukraine works to develop its own air defense capabilities.
Ukrainian President Zelensky released a video showing the interrogation of a North Korean prisoner of war who was one of two captured North Koreans in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and had arrived in Russia on a cargo ferry with over 100 other North Korean troops; conscripted at age 17 into a reconnaissance battalion, the POW claimed he was unaware he would be fighting for Russia or who he would be fighting before his arrival there, and revealed that some North Korean soldiers received training on Russian heavy military equipment. According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, North Korean forces have suffered approximately 300 deaths and 2,700 wounded in Ukraine, while the White House has reported that some North Korean soldiers have been forced to commit suicide to avoid capture, fearing retaliation against their families, though neither Russia nor North Korea has officially acknowledged the troop deployment.
Ukraine’s Allies
Shield AI has deployed its V-BAT MQ-35A drone to Ukraine for combat testing. The drone successfully operated despite Russian electronic warfare interference, notably helping locate and destroy a Russian BUK-M1 missile system using HIMARS. Following successful trials, Shield AI opened a Kyiv office to provide technical support and training to Ukrainian forces. The news comes as reports reveal the US has provided $1.5 billion in support of Ukrainian drone development. Shield AI is currently seeking $200 million in new investment, which would value the company at $5 billion, with potential investors including Palantir, Airbus, and L3 Harris.
French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine is not ending soon, contrary to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims of a quick resolution. Speaking in Cesson-Sévigné, France, Macron emphasized the need to strengthen Ukraine’s position and called for greater European defense responsibility. He announced France’s record 413-billion-euro military budget for 2024-2030 and requested new plans to boost military volunteer recruitment by May, effectively ending his previous universal national service project.
Lithuania delivered a new military aid package to Ukraine, including drones, thermal imagers, and telescopic loaders. Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene emphasized that Ukraine’s security is linked to Lithuania’s own safety. The country plans to focus on air defense, ammunition, and drones in its 2025 aid packages. Lithuania has provided €840 million in aid to Ukraine, making it one of the largest donors relative to GDP at 0.25% annually.
The Danish Defense Ministry refuted Russian claims that a Danish F-16 instructor was killed in a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih on January 17. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen called it Russian disinformation meant to discredit Denmark
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities in Sevastopol have increased recruitment bonuses for military contracts signed after January 1, 2025. The regional payment has risen from 400,000 to 500,000 rubles ($3,950 to $4,950). Combined with federal payments, new recruits in occupied Sevastopol can now receive total bonuses of 900,000 rubles ($8,900). These recruitment efforts in occupied Ukraine violates international law.
Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia Oblast registered their first pro-Russian Cossack society following similar registrations of five Cossack societies in occupied Kherson Oblast in December. These organizations are part of the All-Russian Cossack Society, whose members were enrolled into Russia’s military reserve by Putin’s March 2024 decree. This appears to be part of ongoing efforts to increase military recruitment in occupied Ukraine.
Russia News
Russian authorities have launched an investigation in the Tuva Republic after video surfaced showing military police beating wounded soldiers from the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade. While one servicemember has been detained, an insider source claims such beatings are widespread in the Southern Military District but rarely prosecuted due to lack of video evidence.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Russian forces suffered massive casualties in 2024, with over 434,000 total casualties including 150,000 killed in action, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi. These high losses, particularly from September to November, came as Russia prioritized territorial gains through infantry assaults regardless of the human cost.
Troops +1600
822030 |
Tanks +12
9833 |
Artillery +60
22134 |
Arm. Veh. +23
20477 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia’s Allies
China has become Russia’s largest trading partner, but Chinese imports have not fully replaced Western goods lost to sanctions. While trade between the two countries reached $244.8 billion, Chinese supplies only covered 60% of medical equipment, 40% of plastics, and 25% of electrical equipment previously provided by Europe. Despite record oil exports to China, overall trade growth has slowed significantly, with mutual trade growing just 1.9% in 2024 compared to 26% in 2023.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com