Summary of the Day:
Russia’s first official delegation since Assad’s fall arrived in Syria, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Presidential Special Representative Alexander Lavrentyev, to negotiate continued access to military bases at Hmeimim and Port of Tartus. Concurrent satellite imagery shows Russian forces actively evacuating military equipment via cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II from Tartus, suggesting uncertain negotiations.
The Russian military has established a new Unmanned Systems Regiment under the Central Military District, with 1,342 personnel organized into strike and reconnaissance battalions. This is part of a larger initiative to create formal Unmanned Systems Forces by Q3 2025, signaling a significant modernization of Russia’s drone warfare capabilities.
NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai revealed an escalating Russian sabotage campaign against European NATO members, including train derailments, arson, attacks on politicians’ property, and assassination plots against defense industry leaders. This marks a concerning shift toward hybrid warfare against NATO states.
Ukrainian forces have made advances near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, while Russian forces gained ground in multiple sectors including Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Kremlin continues its societal militarization through the “Time of Heroes” program, systematically appointing Ukraine war veterans to federal government positions.
Picture of the Day:
Fire brigades start work in the area following Russian drone and missile attack in Odesa, Ukraine. A Russian attack on Odesa left four people injured, Odesa Regional State Administration reported. (Odesa Regional Military Administration / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Following Assad’s fall in December 2024, Russia has begun evacuating military equipment from Syria while simultaneously engaging in diplomatic negotiations to maintain access to its strategic bases at Hmeimim Air Base and Port of Tartus. Satellite imagery from January 18-27 documented two Russian cargo ships, the Sparta and Sparta II, loading military equipment at Tartus, with Sparta II having already departed. The Russian diplomatic mission, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Presidential Special Representative Alexander Lavrentyev, is reportedly facing difficulties in talks with Syria’s new government.
Despite holding a 49-year lease on the port, Russia has initiated a withdrawal strategy primarily utilizing air transport from Khmeimim airport for smaller equipment, while employing sea transport for larger or more expensive assets. This developing situation could significantly impact Russia’s military presence in the Mediterranean region and reshape regional power dynamics, particularly as Russia continues to focus its resources on the conflict in Ukraine.
NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai disclosed at the European Parliament that Russia is conducting an unprecedented sabotage campaign against European NATO members, which includes train derailments, arson, attacks on politicians’ property, and assassination plots against defense industry leaders, particularly targeting Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, whose assassination plot was uncovered by U.S. and German intelligence in July 2024, leading to enhanced security measures. The campaign, which has reached a “record high” and includes attempted attacks on DHL flights, is viewed as part of Russia’s strategy to undermine NATO countries’ support for Ukraine, with Rheinmetall’s role in supporting Ukraine with weapons and plans to build ammunition factories there being of particular concern. NATO plans to develop a new strategy to address these hybrid threats before its June summit in The Hague, as these escalating covert operations pose a serious threat to European security and stability, potentially increasing the risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia while threatening international peace.
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko approved draft changes to the 1998 Belarus-Russia citizenship treaty that would allow citizens of either country to vote and run in local elections while living in the other country. This move represents another step toward merging the two countries’ political systems, potentially strengthening Russia’s influence in the region and affecting regional stability.
A 45-year-old man attempted to drive a car through the gates of Russia’s Embassy in Stockholm resulting in his immediate arrest by Swedish police. While Russian officials claim the suspect is Ukrainian and had previously attempted to break into Russian facilities in Stockholm in 2015 and 2018, his nationality remains unconfirmed. The incident, being investigated as “gross trespassing,” follows earlier incidents including a paint-dropping drone attack on the Embassy in late 2024 and vandalism at Sweden’s Embassy in Moscow. These events reflect the ongoing tensions between Western nations and Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, potentially further straining diplomatic relations in an already tense geopolitical climate.
China has called on the United States and Russia to reduce their nuclear arsenals before it will consider joining trilateral disarmament talks proposed by President Trump at the World Economic Forum. While Russia has expressed willingness to resume bilateral negotiations with the U.S., China maintains its position that the two largest nuclear powers, which together possess nearly 90% of global nuclear weapons (U.S. with 3,708 warheads and Russia with 4,380), must make substantial reductions first. China, which has increased its arsenal to 500 warheads, insists its nuclear forces are maintained only at minimum levels needed for national security. This standoff between the world’s major nuclear powers poses significant challenges for global nuclear disarmament efforts and international security stability.
Uzbekistan Airways has rerouted its European flights to avoid Russian and Belarusian airspace, now flying over Azerbaijan and Turkey instead. While the airline claims this is for route optimization, the change follows a tragic incident in December 2024 when an Azerbaijani airliner crashed in Kazakhstan after reportedly being hit by Russian air defenses during a Ukrainian drone attack near Grozny. The incident, which killed 38 of 67 passengers, has strained Russia-Azerbaijan relations, with President Aliyev demanding Russia acknowledge responsibility despite Moscow’s claims that birds caused the crash. This situation highlights the growing risks to civilian aviation in the region due to the ongoing conflict, potentially impacting international air travel patterns and regional stability.
The Path to Peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is “illegitimate” and cannot sign peace agreements, referencing Ukraine’s occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and Zelensky’s 2022 decree banning negotiations with Russia following their annexation, while suggesting only Ukraine’s parliament speaker can revoke this decree – claims that Ukrainian constitutional lawyers reject. Under Ukraine’s martial law, implemented after Russia’s 2022 invasion, elections are currently suspended, extending Zelensky’s term beyond its original May 2024 end date, and in response to Putin’s statements, Zelensky posted on X that Putin is either continuing large-scale attacks or seeking a pause to prepare for another invasion, calling on world leaders to maintain pressure on Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian security forces reported to state news agency TASS that they eliminated a Ukrainian reconnaissance group near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast, close to the Russian border town of Tetkino. This claim has not been independently verified.
Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade has received M692 155mm area-denial artillery munitions (ADAM), as revealed through social media posts. These artillery shells each carry 36 M67 anti-personnel landmines and can create a 600 square meter minefield at ranges up to 18 kilometers. The mines, which deploy seven tripwires upon landing, self-neutralize within 4-48 hours and become inactive after 14 days. This delivery was part of a $275 million US military aid package announced in November, which also included other mine deployment systems like the Modular Pack Mine System and Volcano system. Pro-Russian social media has confirmed their deployment by posting images of the mines and footage of disposal efforts.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast but made no confirmed advances. While Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its airborne forces captured Nikolayevo-Darino near Sudzha, and Russian military bloggers reported advances near Guyevo, Sverdlikovo, and other settlements, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces reportedly launched attacks near several villages including Viktorovka, Nikolskiy, Novaya Sorochina, Staraya Sorochina, and Kurilovka. Ukrainian forces used drones to repel a Russian mechanized assault in the region.
North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast are reportedly suffering heavy losses and may have temporarily withdrawn from combat, according to Ukrainian officials. The losses are attributed to their inexperience with drone and artillery warfare. Ukrainian military sources report that North Korean troops initially operated in large, easily targeted groups and struggled with communication due to language barriers with Russian forces. While North Korean troops have better small arms and uniforms than Russian forces, they lack armored vehicles. Ukrainian officials expect these forces to return to combat after tending to casualties or receiving reinforcements.
Ukraine reportedly launched multiple drone attacks on Russian oil and power facilities across several western regions including Nizhny Novgorod, Smolensk, Tver, and Bryansk. A significant fire broke out at the Lukoil oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod, though no casualties were reported. Russian officials claim their air defenses intercepted 26 drones in Bryansk region alone and prevented a drone strike on a nuclear facility in Smolensk.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsya northeast of Kharkiv City but made no advances. A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that Russian forces, including both male and female convict recruits, conduct daily attacks on the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in small groups of 3-10 personnel.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces conducted attacks in the Kupyansk area, with conflicting claims about the capture of Dvorichna, located 100 kilometers east of Kharkiv and 17 kilometers north of Kupiansk on the Oskil River’s western bank – while Russia claimed to have taken the village, Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov denied this, stating fighting continues as Russia attempts to establish a bridgehead there to outflank Ukrainian defenses in Kupiansk. Russian forces also attacked near Kutkivka, Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Hlushkivka, but made no confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces reporting they repelled four mechanized assaults since January 22, destroying over 15 Russian armored vehicles and tanks primarily using drones, even as Russian forces have intensified operations in the area since September despite Ukrainian resistance.
Borova
Russian forces attacked in the Borova area but did not advance. While Russian military bloggers claim to have captured Novoyehorivka, they acknowledge they haven’t taken nearby Tverdokhlibove. Russian forces attacked several settlements including Lozova, Bohuslavka, Zelenyi Hai, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Kopanky, Makiivka, and Hrekivka. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russians conduct daily assaults near the Oskil River and Borova in small groups, sometimes using motorcycles, while tanks provide fire support from protected positions.
Lyman
Russian forces attacked in the Lyman direction but made no confirmed advances. They conducted attacks near several settlements including Terny, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Zelene Dolyna, and Zarichne, as well as in the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk at Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Novoselivka but made no confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar targeting the town and surrounding areas including Kalynivka, Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Predtechyne. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances in central Chasiv Yar and near Kalynivka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reported successfully destroying two Russian tanks and damaging three armored vehicles during a Russian attack near Bila Hora using drones.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Toretsk along Darhomyzhskoho Street while Russian forces claimed control of Niu York and Yurivka. Though Russian military bloggers reported advances in and around Toretsk, these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a Russian military column near Shcherbynivka. Fighting continues in Toretsk and nearby settlements including Krymske, Dachne, and Dyliivka.
Pokrovsk
Ukrainian and Russian forces made advances near Pokrovsk, with Ukrainians gaining ground in southeastern Kotlyne and south of Zvirove, while Russian forces advanced near Udachne along the Donetska Railway. Russian forces reportedly captured Uspenivka and Novoandriivka, though the timing is unclear. Heavy fighting continues across multiple settlements including Vodyane Druhe, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, and others. Russian forces are reportedly using fog cover for small infantry attacks and extensive drone operations, with up to 30 FPV drones targeting single Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian sources indicate that Russian forces are probing for weaknesses near Pokrovsk before concentrating forces at successful breach points.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces captured Slovyanka near Kurakhove and advanced west of Slovyanka and south of Dachne. While Russian sources claimed advances in central Andriivka, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces are employing small team tactics of 1-3 soldiers, using vehicles only to transport infantry. Fighting continues across multiple areas including Andriivka, Shevchenko, Dachne, Ulakly, Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Yantarne, and Zelenivka, with Russian forces reportedly trying to secure positions along the T-0515 Andriivka-Pokrovsk highway.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced northeast of Rozdolne near Velyka Novosilka, though the timing of these gains is uncertain. Russian sources report ongoing clearing operations in Velyka Novosilka itself, with continued attacks near Rozdolne, Novosilka, and Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka and reportedly captured Stepove near Robotyne. Russian forces also made advances northeast of Kopani and south of Maly Shcherbaky, though the timing of these gains remains unclear.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in the Dnipro direction but failed to make any advances.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major drone attack against Ukraine using 100 Shahed drones and decoys from multiple launch sites in Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces intercepted 65 drones across 13 oblasts, while 28 decoy drones were neutralized by electronic warfare. The attacks damaged civilian infrastructure in several regions, notably causing power outages in 72 settlements in Cherkasy Oblast’s Umanskyi Raion. Additional missile and drone strikes damaged infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Ukraine’s 1994 decision to give up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons under the Budapest Memorandum. Despite receiving security guarantees from the US, UK, and Russia, Ukraine faced Russian invasion 20 years later. Zelensky argued Ukraine should have exchanged its nuclear arsenal for NATO membership instead, comparing it to US security guarantees for Israel. While discussing future security, Zelensky noted ongoing resistance to Ukraine’s NATO membership from several countries, including the US and Germany, while Russia demands a permanent ban on Ukraine joining NATO as a condition for peace talks.
Russian forces are targeting families of Ukrainian prisoners of war with psychological manipulation tactics, according to a January 27 report from Ukraine’s POW Treatment Headquarters. Russian operatives contact relatives immediately after capturing Ukrainian soldiers, demanding money and sensitive information in exchange for promises about prisoner treatment and exchanges. In Donetsk Oblast, where heavy fighting continues, Ukrainian authorities are investigating multiple violations of the Geneva Conventions, including the reported execution of over 100 POWs in 2024 and a recent case involving the summary execution of six Ukrainian prisoners.
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) arrested two Russian spies, aged 21 and 22, from Kremenchuk in Poltava Oblast. The suspects were caught photographing an F-16 fighter jet during takeoff near a military airfield. Recruited by a Russian FSB officer, they were tasked with gathering intelligence on Ukrainian aviation facilities across five regions to help Russia target its missile and drone strikes. The agents were intercepted before they could transfer any data and now face life imprisonment for treason. Ukraine received its first F-16 jets in August 2024 through a NATO-led coalition initiative.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry faces multiple controversies as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) opened a criminal investigation into Defense Minister Rustem Umerov for potential abuse of power after he overruled the Defense Procurement Agency’s supervisory board’s vote to extend director Maryna Bezrukova’s contract on January 24, instead appointing Rustem Zhmadilov and dismissing two board members – an action the Anti-Corruption Action Center claims was unlawful since supervisory boards typically have sole authority over leadership appointments. This development coincides with the confirmed dismissal of Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov on January 28 over procurement failures, following earlier tensions with Bezrukova regarding a controversial contract for 500,000 artillery shells where she had raised concerns about the manufacturer’s capacity and faced pressure over contract decisions, leading to a NABU investigation into allegations of price inflation and the Defense Ministry ultimately shifting to importing shells instead.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 24
Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast killed two people and injured two others, while damaging a multi-story building, ten houses, a garage, a warehouse, and farm equipment.
Two people were killed in a Russian attack on the town of Rodynske in Donetsk Oblast, while another person was wounded in a separate attack on Pokrovsk.
Russian artillery struck Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injuring five men between ages 30-39. The attack damaged an industrial facility, a residential building, solar panels, and electrical infrastructure.
Five people were wounded in Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast – four in the Yunakivka community and one in the Seredyna-Buda community.
A Russian drone strike on Odesa injured four people, damaged residential buildings, and set four vehicles on fire.
Two men and two women were wounded in Russian attacks on the Vasylivka district in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian attacks across Kharkiv Oblast injured three civilians – a 62-year-old woman and 66-year-old man in the Rohan community, and a 61-year-old woman in Kindrashivka village. A separate Russian strike hit a civilian enterprise in southwestern Kharkiv city, causing a major fire but no casualties.
Drone debris sparked a fire at a vintage car museum in Kyiv Oblast, destroying nine cars and damaging 27 others. The attack also damaged two homes, three non-residential buildings, and three additional vehicles in the region. No one was injured.
A Russian attack on Uman in Cherkasy Oblast damaged infrastructure and caused power outages, but no casualties were reported.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. has moved approximately 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from Israel to Poland for delivery to Ukraine, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses against Russian attacks. The transfer, which Israel approved in September 2023, represents the most significant weapons delivery involving Israel to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began. The Patriot system, decommissioned by Israel in April 2023, had been in storage since Israel now uses its own defense systems like Iron Dome. The equipment will be refurbished in the U.S. before being sent to Ukraine, where it will be compatible with existing Patriot batteries. Israeli officials emphasized they were returning the system to the U.S. rather than directly supplying Ukraine with weapons.
The European Union plans to replace its current preferential trade agreement with Ukraine, set to expire June 5, with a new framework based on the 2016 Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. The proposed changes aim to balance support for Ukraine’s economy during the Russian invasion with concerns from EU farmers, particularly in Poland, who say cheaper Ukrainian imports threaten their livelihoods. The new system would include specific export quotas for agricultural products and additional safeguards, building on existing protections for sensitive products like eggs, poultry, and grain. This policy shift could significantly impact both Ukrainian exports and European agricultural markets, while potentially easing tensions between Ukraine and EU member states over trade issues. Technical negotiations between the EU and Ukraine have begun, with formal discussions expected to follow.
Italy’s parliament has approved the extension of military aid to Ukraine through December 31, 2025, with both houses voting in favor despite some opposition. Italy, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s leadership, has already provided ten military aid packages to Ukraine, including advanced SAMP/T air defense systems, and recently announced an additional package. This continued support reinforces Italy’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense efforts against Russian aggression.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian-appointed Crimean leader Sergey Aksyonov announced that new military recruits in occupied Crimea will receive a 500,000 ruble ($5,100) signing bonus for 2025 contracts. This recruitment incentive violates Article 51 of the Geneva Convention, which prohibits occupying powers from pressuring or compelling occupied populations to join their military forces, including through propaganda or incentives for voluntary recruitment.
Russia News
Trade in Russian oil for March delivery to China and India has stalled following new U.S. sanctions imposed on January 10 targeting Russia’s shadow fleet of about 200 vessels and associated companies. The sanctions have caused shipping costs to soar, creating a significant price gap between buyers and sellers. Russian ESPO Blend crude premiums to China have increased to $3-5 per barrel, while India has received no new offers for March deliveries. Additionally, Indian banks have blocked payments for Russian oil imports in response to the sanctions. The disruption significantly impacts both Asian nations, as Russian crude comprised 36% of India’s imports and 20% of China’s last year. President Trump has warned Russia to end the war in Ukraine or face additional economic penalties.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1670
834670 |
Tanks +10
9886 |
Artillery +29
22395 |
Arm. Veh. +24
20597 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is establishing a new military branch focused on unmanned systems (drones), highlighted by the formation of the 7th Separate Unmanned Systems Reconnaissance Strike Regiment under the Central Military District. The regiment, nearly fully staffed with 1,342 service members as of April 2024, includes strike and reconnaissance battalions operating in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense plans to complete the formation of broader Unmanned Systems Forces by the third quarter of 2025, potentially creating similar regiments across other military districts. This reorganization aims to centralize control over previously informal drone units and enhance Russia’s drone warfare capabilities, though success depends on proper implementation and resource availability.
Russian authorities have appointed war veteran Alexander Tikhnonov as Presidential Deputy Plenipotentiary Representative in the Volga Federal District, as part of the Kremlin’s “Time of Heroes” program. This appointment reflects Russia’s ongoing efforts to place Ukraine war veterans in government positions, furthering the militarization of Russian society.
Russian Presidential Aide Nikolai Patrushev announced that the Russian Navy will develop new naval drones incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning technology.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com