Summary of the Day:
Russian forces suffered their second-highest monthly casualties in January 2025 while capturing 498 square kilometers of territory. Recent Russian advances were reported near Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and in the Dnipro direction, while Ukrainian forces made gains near Borova. Russia lost approximately 48,240 troops during the month, averaging about 96 casualties per square kilometer gained.
Ukrainian forces demonstrated their technological capabilities by conducting strategic drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, targeting the Lukoil Oil Refinery in Volgograd City and the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant. The attacks damaged key processing units and caused fires at both facilities. Meanwhile, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission reported a sharp increase in Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war, documenting 79 executions in 24 separate incidents since August 2024.
In Moscow, unidentified attackers assassinated Armen Sargsyan, founder of the “Arbat” Special Purpose Battalion and a key figure in Russia’s operations in Ukraine since 2014, using an explosive device at his apartment. On the military front, Ukraine announced organizational reforms to transition its armed forces into a corps structure to improve command and control capabilities.
Picture of the Day:
A boy plays on a swing set on a playground near a damaged apartment building in Poltava. A Russian missile recently struck the building, killing 14 people, including three children. (Oksana Ivanova/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC “UA:PBC”/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
In a disputed election widely considered neither free nor fair, Belarus’ Central Election Commission claims President Alexander Lukashenko won with 5.13 million votes and 86.82% voter turnout in the January 26 presidential election. This result further entrenches authoritarian control in Belarus, a key Russian ally, potentially impacting regional stability and democratic aspirations in Eastern Europe.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban avoided directly labeling Russia as an aggressor in a recent interview with Swiss media Neue Zurcher Zeitung, suggesting that such judgments should be left to historians. As the EU’s most Russia-friendly leader, Orban dismissed potential Russian threats to Hungary despite Putin’s past demands for NATO to return to its 1997 borders. His stance continues to strain Hungary’s relationship with the EU, which has already withheld 1.04 billion euros in aid due to rule of law violations. This situation impacts European unity in supporting Ukraine and potentially weakens the collective Western response to Russian aggression.
Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu attempted to backtrack from his controversial statements calling Ukraine a “fictional state” and suggesting Romania could claim some of its territories. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry dismissed his comments as Russian propaganda, noting their alignment with Moscow’s rhetoric.
The Path to Peace
A potential meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump may take place in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, according to Reuters sources. This development comes as Trump claims progress in Ukraine-Russia discussions, though Russian officials deny direct contact about preparations. While Trump believes Putin is “destroying Russia” by refusing peace with Ukraine, Moscow has already rejected key elements of a proposed peace plan that included freezing front lines and delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership. This situation has global implications for peace as it involves major world powers attempting to negotiate an end to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, though the specific terms and concessions remain contentious.
The White House’s proposal for Ukrainian elections in 2025 has drawn criticism from Dmytro Lytvyn, communications adviser to the Ukrainian president, who called it a “failed” plan without additional steps toward peace. Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg advocates for elections following a potential ceasefire, citing the importance of democratic processes even during wartime. Putin has expressed openness to peace talks but refuses to speak with Zelensky, whom he considers “illegitimate” due to his expired term. While Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections during martial law, Zelensky has indicated willingness to hold elections if fighting stops and Western security guarantees are provided. Reports suggest Trump’s team seeks a new Ukrainian leader to negotiate with Putin.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
In 2024, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), led by Commander Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, demonstrated enhanced drone warfare capabilities with over 220 operations inside Russia in a six-month period, deploying more than 3,500 weapons against Russian targets, including the successful targeting of 15 Russian air defense systems in recent months and a significant reduction in Russian reconnaissance drone operations. Ukrainian bomber drones struck targets up to 50 kilometers inside Russia, and the country developed a new long-range drone capable of traveling 2,000 kilometers while carrying a 250-kilogram bomb. The military leadership has expanded drone capabilities across all service branches to maintain a technological edge over Russia’s numerical advantages, with Ukraine developing new drone technologies using domestic components, working to counter Russian fiber optic cable drones, and significantly expanding production to manufacture over 30,000 bomber drones in 2024 alone.
Russian forces are upgrading their drone capabilities with two types: carbon fiber Shahed drones carrying 50-90kg warheads and lighter “Gerber” foam plastic drones with 3-5kg explosive warheads. According to Ukrainian police official Ihor Chernyak, Russia is using the cheaper Gerber drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, while also modifying Iskander and Kh-59 missiles with cluster warheads.
Ukraine has developed and is actively using laser weapon technology, according to Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces. The system, called Tryzub, can reportedly target aircraft at altitudes over 2 kilometers. This development is part of Ukraine’s broader advances in military technology since 2022, which includes recently deploying a long-range drone capable of traveling 2,000 kilometers while carrying a 250-kilogram bomb.
Ukrainian forces reported the destruction of several Russian military assets in southern Ukraine, including a Buk-M3 air defense system, three electronic warfare systems, and a Starlink terminal.
Ukrainian Air Force Captain Ivan Bolotov, 24, was killed during a combat mission. A member of the 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade, Bolotov had served since Russia’s full-scale invasion began and leaves behind a wife and five-month-old son.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked several settlements in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast targeting the areas around Sverdlikovo, Maryevka, Pogrebki (all northwest of Sudzha), and Lebedevka (southeast of Korenevo). Despite these offensive operations, Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial gains in the region. Russian military bloggers reported advances near Pogrebki and Sverdlikovo, but these claims remain unverified.
Ukrainian forces conducted strategic drone strikes against two major Russian energy facilities, targeting the Lukoil Oil Refinery in Volgograd City, which handles 6% of Russia’s oil processing, and the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant, which processes 12 billion cubic meters of gas condensate annually and reportedly supplies fuel to the Russian military. The Ukrainian Security Service reported that the strikes damaged key processing units at the Volgograd facility and caused a fire at the Astrakhan plant, leading to its operational halt, while Russian officials claimed to have intercepted most drones but acknowledged fires and damage at both facilities. This marks the fifth attack on Russian energy infrastructure in 2025, following recent strikes on facilities in Ryazan, Tambov Oblast, and Bryansk, with the Ryazan Oil Refinery suspending operations after being damaged.
President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that a Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, on January 31 killed numerous Russian and North Korean officers.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks near Vovchansk and Hatyshche, northeast of Kharkiv City, but made no advances. A Russian military blogger reported that Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks in Vovchansk and near Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces made small advances near Kupyansk with confirmed progress west of Pershotravneve. They attacked near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Stepova Novoselivka. While Russian sources claimed advances near Topoli, Zapadne, and Synkivka, these remain unconfirmed. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces are regrouping in the area and using reconnaissance missions to locate Ukrainian positions. A Ukrainian commander reported his forces recently destroyed most Russian armored vehicles during five mechanized assaults.
Anton Spitsyn, a leader of the National Guard’s Omega special forces unit “Peaky Blinders,” died from combat wounds. A Kharkiv Oblast native and business owner turned soldier, Spitsyn served since Russia’s 2022 invasion. His unit was defending Kharkiv Oblast, where Russian forces are currently attempting to cross the Oskil River and have advanced to within 2 kilometers of Kupiansk’s outskirts. According to local officials, Russian troops are trying to establish a position in Dvorichna on the river’s western bank.
Borova
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces made advances near Borova. Ukrainian forces gained ground in central Zahryzove, while Russian forces advanced in eastern Zahryzove and areas near Nadiya, Karmazynivka, and Makiivka. Russian forces attacked near Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, Lozova, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, and Novolyubivka.
Lyman
Russian forces advanced northeast of Lyman with confirmed gains north of Kolodyazi and likely advances near Dibrova. They continued attacks near Yampolivka, Terny, and in the Serebryanka area and Serebryanske forest.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks near Siversk targeting Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Zolotarivka, and Ivano-Darivka, but did not achieve any confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made advances near and within Chasiv Yar. They pushed along Dniprovska Street in central Chasiv Yar and reached the southern outskirts of Bila Hora and areas west of Kurdyumivka. The operations involved Russian reconnaissance and airborne units, with artillery support positioned near Stupochky.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk with confirmed movement west of Niu York. They launched attacks around Toretsk itself and near the settlements of Krymske and Shcherbynivka. While Russian military bloggers claimed additional advances in northern Toretsk, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced southeast of Nadiivka near Pokrovsk continuing attacks across multiple settlements in the region. However, Ukrainian military spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov reported that Russian offensive operations have slowed due to insufficient resources to capture Pokrovsk. While Russian sources claimed to have seized Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, and Sribne, these claims remain unverified. Russian tank and motorized rifle units are operating in the area, with both sides reportedly employing skilled drone operators in their operations.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced in eastern Andriivka while continuing attacks near several settlements around Kurakhove, including Shevchenko, Dachne, Oleksiivka, Ulakly, and Kostiantynopil. While Russian sources claimed additional advances along the T-0515 highway north of Andriivka, these claims remain unverified. Russian tank units are conducting drone operations near Dachne.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Velyka Novosilka, attacking near Novosilka and Novyi Komar, but failed to advance. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed seven Russian vehicles during a two-wave mechanized assault and claimed to have killed a Russian battalion commander in a drone strike.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks near several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast, targeting Novodanylivka, Shcherbynivka, and Kamyanske in the Robotyne area. These attacks were unsuccessful, with no territorial gains reported.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces gained ground on Velykyi Potemkin Island in the Dnipro River Delta, as confirmed by recent footage. They also conducted limited attacks near Kherson City, specifically around Antonivka and Prydniprovske.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched 71 drones against Ukraine, targeting multiple regions across the country. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 38 drones and disrupted 25 decoy drones through electronic warfare. The attacks, launched from several Russian regions and occupied Crimea, resulted in damage to Sumy, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy areas.
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported a dramatic increase in Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war, documenting 79 POW executions in 24 separate incidents since August 2024, with many executions occurring during surrender attempts, including wounded and unarmed personnel. According to mission head Danielle Bell and Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine had recorded a total of 177 POW executions by mid-December 2024, with 109 occurring that year, while UN officials noted that Russian leaders have openly called for these war crimes, violating humanitarian law. Additionally, Ukrainian authorities are investigating reports of a beheaded Ukrainian serviceman, whose decapitation was documented in photos circulated by Russian sources, with the National Police investigating the incident while authorities document it as another violation of international humanitarian law.
Ukrainian security forces arrested a 23-year-old man in Sarny who attempted to sabotage railway tracks used for military transport. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said the suspect was working for Russian intelligence and was also tasked with gathering military intelligence in Lviv Oblast. The man, who had previously vandalized Ukrainian soldiers’ graves and expressed pro-Russian views, faces life imprisonment on charges of high treason and sabotage under martial law.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 21
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast killed one person and injured 13 others, including two children.
Russian forces killed one resident in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, and wounded five others in the region.
In Kharkiv Oblast, a drone attack injured two people – a 39-year-old woman and a 53-year-old man – causing first and second-degree burns.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s Synelnykove district, a Russian attack wounded a 70-year-old man, who is in moderate condition.
Aftermath of a Russian strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast that killed one person. (Governor Serhii Lysak / Telegram)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s military chief, announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are expanding their “corps structure” organization, which has operated some corps since 2023, including the 9th, 10th, and 11th Army Corps, with this broader restructuring aiming to improve command and control between brigade-level units and operational groups by adding an intermediate command level. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced this new corps-based organizational structure to modernize the army, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirming the reforms are underway and emphasizing they will focus on appointing experienced combat officers with modern thinking as corps commanders, as Ukrainian forces face challenges including Russian numerical superiority in some areas, mobilization issues, and uncertainty over U.S. military aid.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported three recent violent attacks against military enlistment officers across the country. In Poltava Oblast, a draft officer was fatally shot while escorting conscripts. In Rivne, an explosion seriously injured several service members, and in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, another explosion wounded a military member. Syrskyi called for a full investigation of these incidents, emphasizing that Ukraine’s defense relies on public support for its military, while acknowledging ongoing challenges with troop mobilization.
Ukraine’s Allies
The United Kingdom has pledged to increase its military support to Ukraine in 2025 to unprecedented levels, committing £3 billion ($3.6 billion) in lethal aid. During a Brussels press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized this commitment following his recent visit to Kyiv, where he witnessed the aftermath of Russian attacks on residential buildings and met with injured soldiers and affected families.
In early February 2025, the Trump administration temporarily paused weapons shipments to Ukraine following his January 20 inauguration while reviewing U.S. foreign policy, with aid resuming days later after internal discussions, though Trump initially froze foreign aid funding for 90 days. While shipments previously approved under Biden have continued, no new aid packages have been announced since Trump took office, with Trump suggesting from the Oval Office linking future military aid to access to Ukraine’s rare earth metals, particularly in regions like Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, where Russia has already seized some deposits, including the town of Shevchenko which was specifically targeted for its lithium production potential. Ukrainian President Zelensky has emphasized the need to protect these resources, which include titanium, nickel, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, and lithium, while continuing to advocate for ongoing weapons support to strengthen Ukraine’s position in potential peace negotiations, with the U.S. having provided $65.9 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities are expanding their youth militarization efforts in occupied Ukraine, with Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reporting that about 1,000 Ukrainian children in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast were recruited into “Yunarmiya” in 2024. This pro-Russian military youth movement has established 23 new cells this year as part of Russia’s long-term occupation strategy.
Russia News
Armen Sargsyan (also spelled Sarkisyan), founder of the Russian-aligned “Arbat” Special Purpose Battalion and a wanted crime boss from Donetsk Oblast, was killed by an explosion at his “Alye Parusa” residential complex apartment in Moscow on February 3, with five others injured including a former member of Yanukovych’s security detail. Sargsyan, who was wanted in Ukraine for his role in suppressing pro-Western protests during the EuroMaidan Revolution in 2014 and was formerly associated with Ukraine’s ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, had established the battalion in 2022 reportedly under Federal Security Service direction, which later contracted with Russia’s Defense Ministry.
Raiffeisen Bank International, the largest Western bank still operating in Russia, has been servicing companies that supply the Russian military despite announcing plans to reduce operations in July 2024. Bloomberg reports that Raiffeisen’s Russian operations processed transactions worth 62 million rubles ($620,000) for Unichim, a chemical company that supplies components for military equipment production. The bank also handled transactions for companies involved in developing rocket systems, aerial bombs, and aviation supplies. A Russian court ruling has complicated Raiffeisen’s exit plans, while the bank has accumulated 4.4 billion euros in Russia and earned over $1 billion from its Russian operations in early 2023.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
In January 2025, Russian forces maintained heavy casualties while their territorial gains slowed in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported 48,240 Russian casualties in January, making it the second-highest monthly loss since the invasion began in 2022. While Russian forces captured about 498 square kilometers of territory in January (down from 593 square kilometers in December 2024), they suffered approximately 96 casualties per square kilometer gained. The slowing advance, particularly around heavily defended areas like Pokrovsk, raises questions about whether Russia will continue to accept such high losses for diminishing territorial gains.
Troops +1270
842930 |
Tanks +18
9938 |
Artillery +66
22655 |
Arm. Veh. +24
20709 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is expanding its “Time of Heroes” program to place military veterans in government positions within occupied Ukrainian territories. Occupation governors Vladimir Saldo and Yevgeny Balitsky announced similar programs in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, respectively, opening positions to both local pro-Russian fighters and Russian veterans as part of efforts to integrate these regions into Russia.
Russia is increasing government control over DOSAAF (Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy), with President Putin ordering multiple ministries to participate in its governance. A new decree lowers the membership age from 18 to 14 years old. DOSAAF, a Soviet-era organization, promotes military service through youth programs and helps assign conscripts with specific skills to military roles.
Russian military bloggers are criticizing severe shortages of competent commanders at all levels. They report that leadership problems began in 2022, with significant losses of junior and mid-level commanders by June of that year. The bloggers note that remaining commanders are overwhelmed with administrative tasks, micromanaging small units instead of focusing on larger operations, which has severely impacted combat effectiveness.
The Kalashnikov Concern, a Russian state-owned defense company, has unveiled its new “Krona-E” air defense system equipped with 9M340 and 9M333 missiles. The system is designed to protect key infrastructure and facilities from drone attacks, particularly medium-range drones, as Russia seeks to defend its rear areas from Ukrainian strikes.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com