Summary of the Day:
President Zelensky reaffirmed Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate while maintaining sovereignty, explaining that wartime elections are constitutionally prohibited. He reported significant Russian casualties since February 2022, with 300,000-350,000 killed and 600,000-700,000 wounded.
Russian forces made advances near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian forces advanced near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces also conducted a successful strike on an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai as part of their ongoing campaign against Russian defense industrial targets.
The UAE mediated a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia, with each side exchanging 150 prisoners of war. Meanwhile, Russia announced major military restructuring, removing naval and air force units from military district control, and implemented strict new migration controls despite ongoing labor shortages.
Picture of the Day:
A comrade mourns next to the coffin containing the body of Anton Spitsyn, Ukrainian servicemen and co-founder of special purpose unit of “Gostri Kartuzy” (Peaky Blinders), who was killed fighting Russian troops, during funeral ceremony in Kharkiv. (Ivan Samoilov / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to formalize a security agreement with Belarus, submitting a draft bill to the Russian State Duma to ratify the pact he signed with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in December 2024. This strengthening of military ties between Russia and Belarus could further increase tensions in Eastern Europe and potentially impact regional stability.
The Path to Peace
President Zelensky has expressed openness to direct negotiations with Russian President Putin while emphasizing Ukraine won’t compromise its sovereignty and needs “real, lasting and guaranteed peace.” He indicated some occupied territories might be recovered through diplomacy, though Ukraine currently lacks sufficient military support to fully push back Russian forces from the approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory occupied since 2014 and 2022. Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast for six months, tying down about 60,000 Russian troops and successfully striking important targets using long-range weapons, which Zelensky believes could influence future peace talks.
Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg will present a Ukraine peace plan at the Munich Security Conference (Feb 14-16, 2025), aiming to end the conflict within 100 days of Trump’s inauguration. The plan may include freezing the conflict while offering Ukraine security guarantees, with Kellogg supporting resumed Ukrainian elections during wartime and proposing to use frozen Russian assets to purchase American weapons for Ukraine. Divisions exist within Trump’s administration, with Kellogg and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz advocating using U.S. leverage to pressure Putin, while others favor withdrawing military support to force Ukraine’s capitulation.
The Kremlin has dismissed Zelensky’s openness to direct talks as “empty words,” citing Ukraine’s 2022 decree banning negotiations, and questions Zelensky’s legitimacy due to Ukraine’s martial law preventing elections – though Ukrainian experts note their constitution prohibits elections under martial law. Russia and the US have increased diplomatic contacts recently, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, though no specifics were provided. While Trump called these talks “very constructive,” Putin recently approved updates to Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy outlining conditions for potential nuclear strikes and dismissed Zelensky’s suggestion that Ukraine needs alternative security guarantees, potentially including nuclear weapons, if NATO membership remains unavailable.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, speaking in Kyiv, stated Russia shows no serious interest in peace negotiations and rejected Putin’s June ultimatum demanding Ukraine withdraw from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts – regions Moscow illegally claimed to annex in 2022. The UK has demonstrated continued support by pledging 3 billion pounds in aid for 2025 and signing a 100-year strategic partnership agreement with Ukraine. Zelensky maintains that any peace negotiations must include the US, Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, and Ukraine must negotiate from a position of strength.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Putin signed a decree reorganizing Russia’s military command structure by removing naval and air force units from military district control. The decree revokes the districts’ “interservice status,” returning control of these forces to their respective service commanders. Military districts will now focus primarily on ground forces and assist with mobilization efforts. This change follows a Russian Defense Ministry proposal from June 2024 to optimize command structures.
Russia’s military restructuring appears aimed at streamlining peacetime administration by separating ground forces from naval and air force command. While military districts will now focus primarily on ground forces, joint operations will continue during wartime under unified commanders. This change may help Russia reduce administrative bottlenecks and speed up force mobilization in future conflicts, though it’s unlikely to immediately impact operations in Ukraine where forces already operate under joint command structures.
Russian military personnel and their families are protesting poor conditions and leadership misconduct. Over 160 people, mostly relatives of soldiers from the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade, petitioned Defense Minister Andrei Belousov demanding an investigation into unauthorized personnel transfers and requesting the brigade commander’s removal. This follows the brigade’s leadership replacement in November 2024 after submitting false reports about advances near Siversk. Additionally, soldiers from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade reported lacking basic supplies and claimed their commanders threatened drone strikes against them, while a soldier from the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment alleged physical abuse by his commander for refusing to move to the Zaporizhia front under artillery fire.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced plans to expand its military robotics capabilities by introducing unmanned ground systems and dedicated robotics units into combat brigades. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that these systems, tested since summer 2024, will perform multiple battlefield functions including offensive and defensive operations, casualty evacuation, logistics support, and mine-related activities. The initiative aims to create a technologically advanced army while protecting soldiers’ lives by using robotic systems for the most dangerous tasks.
Ukrainian forces destroyed two Russian electronic warfare systems and five Starlink terminals in southern Ukraine, while also successfully striking a Russian Buk air defense system in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with the General Staff confirming damage to the target though not specifying its extent; the Buk, being a sophisticated surface-to-air missile system, can target aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones, with its latest version (Buk-M3) reportedly capable of tracking and engaging up to 36 targets simultaneously.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked several areas in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, focusing on locations near Sudzha, including Sverdlikovo, Malaya Loknya, and Kurilovka. While Russian sources claimed advances near Sverdlikovo and Nikolaevo-Darino, these claims remain unconfirmed.
A Ukrainian drone strike hit the Albashneft LLC oil depot, described as a “mini-refinery,” in Novominskaya, Krasnodar Krai, approximately 250 kilometers from the front line, with the facility supplying gasoline, diesel fuel, and fuel oil to the Russian military; the strike was confirmed by Ukrainian officials and geolocated footage, while Krasnodar’s governor acknowledged that drone debris caused a fire at an oil tank in the area, though claiming it contained only a “residual amount” of petroleum product.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted offensive operations near Kharkiv City, targeting areas along the Russian-Ukrainian border near Kozacha Lopan and near Vovchansk. Despite these efforts, they made no confirmed advances. A Russian military blogger reported that Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack in Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk with confirmed capture of Zapadne, north of Kupyansk. They continued attacks in multiple directions: north toward Kindrashivka and Doroshivka, east near Petropavlivka, and southeast near Pishchane and Novoosynove. While Russian sources claimed additional advances near locations including Novomlynsk, Kalynove, Topoli, Dvorichna, Synkivka, and Petropavlivka, these claims remain unverified. Reports indicate Russia is using convict recruits and minimally trained mobilized personnel in infantry assaults in the area.
Borova
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Borova attacking several locations including Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, and Kopanky. While Russian sources claimed advances west of Serhiivka and near Zelenyi Hai, east of Borova, these advances remain unconfirmed.
Lyman
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman area targeting positions northeast of Lyman near Novolyubivka, Yampolivka, and Kolodyazi, as well as east of Lyman near Torske and Dibrova. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances southeast of Torske, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Bottom of Form
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations toward Siversk, focusing attacks on the city and near Verkhnokamyanske. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances northwest of Verkhnokamyanske, these remain unconfirmed. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian forces are building up troops in the area and conducting day and night assaults, with a particular focus on targeting Ukrainian drone operators.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces intensified their offensive operations around Chasiv Yar with attacks focused on the city center and nearby settlements of Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora. Ukrainian military spokesperson Lt. Col. Dmytro Zaporozhets reported a 97% increase in Russian assaults compared to December, particularly in northern and central Chasiv Yar near the Avanhard Stadium. While Russian sources claim advances in central and southwestern Chasiv Yar’s Shevchenko Microraion, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces are using both military vehicles and civilian transportation, including ATVs and motorcycles, despite challenging muddy conditions.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in the Toretsk area with confirmed progress along Sierova and Hryhoriia Skovorody streets in northern Toretsk. Attacks continued around Toretsk and near the settlement of Shcherbynivka. Ukrainian military spokesperson Lt. Col. Zaporozhets reported a 30% increase in Russian assaults compared to December, noting an increase in frontal attacks on Toretsk. While Russian sources claim additional advances near Torske, these remain unconfirmed.
Pokrovsk
Both Ukrainian and Russian forces made advances amid ongoing combat operations. Russian forces conducted assaults near multiple settlements including Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Udachne, and Uspenivka. Ukrainian forces confirmed an advance east of Nadiivka, while Russian forces captured southern Sribne. Ukrainian forces reported destroying seven Russian vehicles near Novoyeliyzavetivka. While Russian sources claim additional advances near Baranivka and along the railway line from Kotlyne towards Pokrovsk, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Andriivka
Russian forces made minor advances near Kurakhove, with confirmed progress in fields southwest of Dachne. Russian forces conducted operations near multiple settlements including Uspenivka, Andriivka, Dachne, Ulakly, Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, and Zelenivka. Ukrainian officials report intense fighting around Dachne, where Russian forces are using various drone types but losing approximately one platoon of infantry daily while reducing their use of armored vehicles. While Russian sources claim to have captured Dachne and made advances near the T-0515 highway and Andriivka, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka and Novosilka but failed to make any confirmed advances in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast targeting the settlements of Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka, but failed to make any advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed gains northwest of Myrne, this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian Buk air defense system in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast overnight.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
There were no reports of combat activity in the Kherson direction from either Russian or Ukrainian sources.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major overnight attack against Ukraine using 104 Shahed drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Russia’s Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 57 drones across multiple regions and disrupted 42 others through electronic warfare. The attacks hit Kharkiv City’s Saltivskyi and Osnovyanskyi districts, while drone debris damaged a residential area in Kirovohrad Oblast.
President Zelensky explained that Ukraine’s Constitution prohibits elections during wartime and under martial law. While confirming Ukraine’s commitment to future elections after the war, he noted current practical challenges, including how to enable voting for service members, citizens in Russian-occupied areas, and refugees abroad. Russia has falsely claimed Zelensky’s presidency is illegitimate because Ukraine didn’t hold elections in 2024, despite this being in accordance with Ukrainian law during martial law.
Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner exchange with each side exchanging 150 prisoners of war, mediated by the United Arab Emirates; the returned Ukrainian prisoners, who included members from various military branches and one police officer, are suffering from serious injuries and illnesses, with some having been held captive for over two years.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that if NATO membership remains distant, Ukraine needs alternative security guarantees – potentially including nuclear weapons. While acknowledging Ukraine’s NATO accession could be delayed “for years or decades,” Zelensky highlighted the contradiction in Russia’s invasion rationale, noting Putin invaded to prevent NATO membership, yet Ukraine still isn’t a member. He referenced Ukraine’s 1994 Budapest Memorandum decision to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., U.K., and Russia – guarantees that failed to prevent Russia’s occupation of Crimea and the current full-scale war. While Ukraine maintains NATO membership as its preferred security solution, resistance continues from countries including the U.S., Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha proposed using Ukraine’s underground facilities to store U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), suggesting this could enhance bilateral cooperation and European energy security. This offer comes as Ukraine seeks to diversify its energy partnerships after ending Russian gas transit through its territory. The proposal aligns with broader discussions of U.S.-Ukraine cooperation, including potential rare earth mineral development. Sybiha emphasized that American investment in Ukraine’s gas infrastructure could help establish Ukraine as a regional energy security hub while strengthening transatlantic relations.
Ukraine has imposed new sanctions targeting two distinct groups involved in Russian activities. President Zelensky approved measures against 57 captains of Russia’s “shadow fleet” – including 56 Russian citizens and one Iranian – who help Russia evade oil trade sanctions through methods like ship-to-ship transfers. This marks the first time individual captains have been held accountable for these activities.
Sanctions were imposed on 55 individuals involved in looting Ukraine’s cultural heritage in occupied Crimea. These include high-ranking officials from Russia’s Ministry of Culture, the Russian Academy of Sciences, and directors of major Russian museums such as the Hermitage and Pushkin State Museum of Fine Arts. Among those sanctioned is Yelena Morozova, who was appointed by Russia as director of the National Preserve of Tauric Chersonesos in occupied Crimea and was involved in the illegal removal of artifacts from museums in southern Kherson.
In 2024, Ukraine faced a significant demographic challenge with deaths outpacing births by nearly three to one. The country recorded 495,090 deaths and 176,679 births, with the highest death toll of 53,268 in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Kyiv and Kharkiv Oblast each reported around 35,000 deaths. Birth rates fell 35.5% compared to 2021, with Kyiv city leading in births (19,706), followed by Lviv Oblast (15,642) and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (14,029). Kherson Oblast, partially occupied and under frequent Russian attacks, recorded only 434 births. The data excludes fully occupied Luhansk Oblast and Crimea, while figures from partially occupied Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are likely incomplete.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 8 INJURIES: 70
A Russian missile strike on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, killed five people and wounded 55 others, including three children. Among the injured were a 6-year-old boy and two teenage girls, with the 14-year-old in serious condition. Two additional people were hurt in separate attacks in the region.
Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast killed two civilians in the cities of Pokrovsk and Druzhkivka, while four others were wounded across the region.
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast killed one person and wounded eight others.
Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia Oblast’s Polohy district wounded a 62-year-old woman.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A deadly explosion occurred near a military enlistment office in Kamianets-Podilskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, killing one person and injuring four others. Police are investigating the incident, with no immediate information available about the cause of the explosion.
President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that approximately 40% of Ukraine’s military equipment is domestically produced, while U.S. support accounts for 30%. While Ukraine has increased its defense production, allocating Hr 55 billion ($1.3 billion) in its 2025 budget, Zelensky emphasized that U.S. military assistance remains crucial for Ukraine’s defense capabilities. The continuation of this support faces uncertainty under the Trump administration, while a $60 billion aid package remains stalled in Congress due to Republican opposition and concerns about weapons tracking.
Ukraine’s Allies
The EU is set to receive 2 billion euros in March from profits generated by frozen Russian Central Bank assets, marking the second such payment for Ukraine’s support. This follows an initial payment of 1.55 billion euros made last July through Euroclear, a Belgian clearing house. In 2024, Euroclear earned 6.9 billion euros from these frozen assets, with 1.7 billion euros going to the Belgian budget. Of the more than $300 billion in frozen Russian assets since the 2022 invasion, 191 billion euros are held by Euroclear. The G7 has planned a $50 billion loan to be repaid using profits from these frozen assets.
A coalition of 38 countries reports significant progress toward establishing a special Council of Europe tribunal to prosecute Russian leadership for crimes of aggression against Ukraine. The tribunal will focus on prosecuting top Russian leaders, including President Putin, with the statute expected to be signed in April. This is separate from existing International Criminal Court (ICC) cases, which have already issued arrest warrants for Putin and other Russian officials for war crimes. Unlike other war crime charges, aggression charges specifically target top leadership. Ukrainian authorities have documented numerous Russian war crimes, including attacks on civilians, torture, and forced deportations.
The UK announced a new £55 million ($69 million) humanitarian and economic aid package for Ukraine, part of the recently signed 100-year partnership agreement. During his Kyiv visit, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy also confirmed plans to provide £3 million to supply Ukrainian grain to Syria through the World Food Program. This adds to the UK’s previously committed £3 billion in military aid for 2024. Additionally, the UK will release £1.5 billion of a £2.26 billion loan under the G7 program, to be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha emphasized the timeliness of this assistance for strengthening Ukraine’s resilience.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that while foreign aid will continue, it must serve U.S. interests rather than function as charity. The Trump administration has temporarily halted foreign assistance for 90 days for review, with USAID employees worldwide being placed on administrative leave starting February 7. USAID has provided significant support to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, including $2.6 billion in humanitarian aid, $5 billion in development assistance, and over $30 billion in direct budget support. In response to this pause in U.S. funding, Ukraine has begun consulting with European partners for temporary replacement support.
The next Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein) summit will be held on February 12 under UK leadership instead of U.S. chairmanship. The meeting will take place in Brussels before the Munich Security Conference. While some Ramstein functions have been transferred to NATO, including the new NSATU mission in Wiesbaden for coordinating weapons supply, the UDCG continues to include over 50 countries. The previous meeting on January 9 marked the group’s 25th gathering since 2022 and focused on strengthening Ukraine’s air defense systems.
A new poll by the Wahlen research group shows 67% of Germans support military aid to Ukraine, with 27% favoring increased support and 40% backing current levels. Support is stronger in western Germany (70%) than eastern Germany (53%). Green Party voters show the strongest support for increasing aid (45%), while AfD supporters largely oppose it (79%). Security expert Jana Puglierin notes these results contradict claims of “Ukraine fatigue” among the German public.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has delayed rotating its personnel at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar due to Russia’s failure to provide necessary security guarantees.
Russia News
Viktor Medvedchuk, a Putin ally and former Ukrainian official, published an article claiming Russia must reclaim what he calls its “historical lands.” His accompanying map shows all Ukrainian territory east of Lviv, Ternopil, and Chernivtsi as part of “historical Russia.” He labeled Ukrainians as “modern barbarians” and denied Ukraine’s legitimacy as a state, reflecting Russia’s continued unwillingness to engage in genuine negotiations with Ukraine.
Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs introduced strict new migration controls requiring migrants to register with authorities, share geolocated photos, and get approval for basic activities like driving or banking. The law allows immediate deportation without court hearings for violations. While Russia faces labor shortages, officials like Investigative Committee Head Bastrykin cite an 18% increase in migrant-related court cases in 2024, suggesting the Kremlin is prioritizing domestic stability and appeasing ultra-nationalist concerns over economic needs.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
President Zelensky reported that Russian casualties since February 2022 include 300,000-350,000 killed and 600,000-700,000 wounded, with 50,000-70,000 missing in action. He noted that poor Russian field medicine and evacuation difficulties lead to a high casualty rate. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stated that in 2024 alone, Russian forces suffered 434,000 casualties, including 150,000 killed.
| Troops +1240
845310 |
Tanks +18
9965 |
Artillery +46
22753 |
Arm. Veh. +16
20737 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod released footage showing a T-90 tank that reportedly features a new active protection system designed to defend against FPV drones, RPGs, and anti-tank guided missiles. However, these defensive capabilities have not been independently verified.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com