Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces conducted a significant series of drone strikes against Russian targets hitting several key industrial facilities. The attacks targeted Rosneft’s Lisinskaya Oil Refinery in Voronezh Oblast, causing fires at fuel tanks, struck the Smolensk Aviation Plant where Su-25 aircraft are produced, and hit Lukoil’s Saratovorgsintez Chemical Plant in Saratov City. Ukrainian forces also struck the command post of Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army in occupied Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast.
On the ground, Russian forces made advances near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, though Ukrainian forces successfully regained some lost positions near Pokrovsk. Russian ultranationalist military bloggers have renewed their criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense for failing to hold military command accountable for battlefield failures.
In diplomatic developments, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call discussing increased cooperation between their countries in foreign policy, energy, and economic matters. Meanwhile, Russia continues to face internal challenges, with residents from several districts in Kursk Oblast protesting inadequate support for those displaced by Ukrainian military actions, despite recent leadership changes in the region.
Picture of the Day:
A bus passes over a new bridge built alongside one that was destroyed during the Russian occupation in Izyum, Ukraine. (Carl Court / Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held discussions via video call and phone about strengthening bilateral cooperation, covering foreign policy, energy, and economic matters, with trade between their nations reaching $220 billion – a 7% increase. China has become Russia’s primary trading partner and largest buyer of Russian energy resources, particularly oil and natural gas, while also emerging as Moscow’s main supplier of dual-use goods for its defense industry since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though Beijing denies supporting Russia’s military efforts. According to a Russian presidential aide, they discussed Russia’s war in Ukraine and relations with the United States, though these topics were not mentioned in the official Kremlin statement. While China positions itself as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO has labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war, and this deepening alliance between China and Russia, two major world powers, has significant implications for global peace, security, and geopolitical balance, particularly as it challenges the Western-led international order.
China is shifting away from Russian coal imports despite its growing domestic demand, instead increasing purchases from Australia and Mongolia. In 2024, while China’s coal demand grew by 14%, Russian exports to China fell by 7%, with Mongolia and Australia seeing increases of 18% and 60% respectively. This trend represents another setback for Russia’s struggling coal industry, which is already facing significant financial losses due to Western sanctions, inadequate transport infrastructure, and Chinese tariffs. Despite the broader economic partnership between Moscow and Beijing, Western sanctions are increasingly hampering Russian-Chinese trade relations.
Belarus has begun early voting from January 21-25 for its January 26 presidential election, with incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994, seeking another term. Human rights activists warn that the early voting process, which typically involves up to 40% of voters, is a mechanism for vote manipulation and coercing citizens into voting early, raising concerns about democratic integrity. The previous 2020 election, widely considered fraudulent, sparked massive protests and was rejected by Western governments, with opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, now in exile, claiming she actually won that election with 60% of the vote. Lukashenko’s close alliance with Russia and support of its invasion of Ukraine, including allowing Belarus to be used as a staging ground for Russian forces, has significant implications for regional stability and peace in Eastern Europe.
Belarusian President Lukashenko announced plans to discuss the construction of a second Russian nuclear power plant in Belarus with President Putin. This expansion of nuclear cooperation between the two countries could further strengthen Belarus’ energy dependence on Russia and deepen the alliance between these nations.
Syria’s port of Tartus has terminated its 49-year investment agreement with Russian construction company Stroytransgaz. The 2019 contract, which required Moscow to invest $500 million in port modernization, was cancelled following the collapse of Russian-backed dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime when opposition forces captured Damascus on December 8. Port revenues will now go to the Syrian state and local authorities will manage operations. The new Syrian government has also blocked Russian vessels from evacuating military equipment from the Tartus naval base, marking a significant reduction in Russia’s influence in Syria. Recent diplomatic talks between Ukraine’s Foreign Minister and the new Syrian leadership suggest alignment on addressing Russia’s military presence in the region.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos which gathered 3,000 participants including 60 world leaders, expressed his determination to end Russia’s war in 2025 with a fair and lasting peace that would allow Ukrainians to safely return home, emphasizing that at least 200,000 European peacekeepers would be needed on Ukraine’s eastern front to enforce any peace deal. Zelensky highlighted the military imbalance between Russia’s 1.5 million troops and Ukraine’s 800,000, rejected Moscow’s demands to reduce Ukraine’s military size and abandon NATO membership, and called for European unity against Russian aggression, noting that battles involving North Korean soldiers are now closer to Davos than to Pyongyang. While U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to quickly resolve the conflict through negotiations with Putin, with his team indicating both sides would need to make concessions while preserving Ukraine’s independence, Zelensky emphasized the importance of European support and called for accurate information to be provided to Trump. The forum focused on European defense and Ukraine’s “Peace through Strength” strategy, with French President Macron leading initiatives for a potential peacekeeping mission and UK Prime Minister Starmer pledging British support for maintaining peace in Ukraine.
U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would likely impose additional sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate peace with Ukraine. The Trump administration is developing a sanctions strategy with two potential approaches: offering concessions to Russian oil producers if peace seems achievable or expanding sanctions to increase pressure on Moscow. This comes after recent sanctions by the previous Biden administration and the UK targeted Russia’s “shadow fleet” of nearly 200 vessels and key oil companies, which drove up global oil prices. The G7 nations are also considering tightening the existing $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine is working to arrange a meeting with Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war in 2025. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s commitment to ending the conflict fairly, while Trump has claimed he could broker peace but expressed doubts about Moscow’s willingness to negotiate.
David Arakhamia, head of President Zelensky’s parliamentary faction, announced that Ukrainian delegates may meet with U.S. representatives during Ukraine Week in Washington this February. The discussion centers around peace negotiations and diplomatic relations between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia. CNN reported potential plans for communication with Russian President Putin, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested both Kyiv and Moscow would need to make concessions for peace.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian military bloggers have renewed criticism of the Defense Ministry for failing to hold generals accountable for major battlefield failures. These include the costly failed offensive at Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, the unsuccessful defense during Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive, and recent failures to defend Kursk Oblast. Critics also point to inadequate air defense against Ukrainian strikes and the controversial arrest of Major General Ivan Popov, who was detained after criticizing military leadership. Despite previous Kremlin efforts to quiet such criticism, these complaints have notably resurfaced among ultranationalist commentators.
Ukrainian forces struck the command post of Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army in occupied Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system near Novomykolaivka, south of Tokmak, as confirmed by geolocated footage.
Satellite images revealed that Russian forces constructed new protective structures at Belbek Airfield in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, between October and January. These structures appear designed to shield Russian aircraft from Ukrainian long-range attacks.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made recent advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. They reached the western outskirts of Viktorovka and areas around Nikolskiy during a mechanized assault. Ukrainian forces reported destroying three tanks and seven infantry fighting vehicles during the defense. While Russian sources claimed advances toward Guyevo and control of Nikolayevo-Darino, these claims remain unverified. Fighting continues near Kurilovka, though warmer weather and expected precipitation may limit large-scale operations in the region.
Russian opposition outlet “Mobilization News” reported that Russian authorities are searching for three North Korean personnel who allegedly killed five Russian soldiers near Bolshoye Soldatskoye, which is northeast of Sudzha.
Ukrainian forces launched multiple drone strikes against Russian targets, with 55 drones reportedly intercepted across the country, hitting several key industrial facilities including Rosneft’s Lisinskaya Oil Refinery in Voronezh Oblast (causing fires at fuel tanks and previously struck on January 16), Lukoil’s Saratovorgsintez Chemical Plant in Saratov City, and the Smolensk Aviation Plant located 270 kilometers north of Ukraine where Su-25 aircraft are produced and modernized. In Smolensk city, around 10 explosions were reported, with one drone hitting the aircraft factory and causing a fire, while two residential buildings were damaged though no casualties were reported, and the attacks also disrupted operations at airports in Kazan and Ulyanovsk. These strikes are part of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to weaken Russia’s military industrial capacity and disrupt its military capabilities, with Russian authorities claiming they intercepted 10 drones over Smolensk Oblast alone.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but failed to make any advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Dvorichna (north of Kupyansk) and Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk) but made no advances. The Russian Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies is reportedly conducting drone operations in the Kupyansk area.
Borova
Russian forces launched offensive operations in the Borova direction without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Zelenyi Hai and advanced toward Borova-Bohuslavka and west of Makiivka, these claims remain unverified. A Russian military blogger disputed the Russian Ministry of Defense’s claim about capturing Novoyehorivka, warning that this false report could lead to high Russian casualties. Russian forces conducted ground attacks near multiple settlements including Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Kopanky, Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Nevske, and Makiivka. Russian special forces drone operators are reportedly active southwest of Nadiya.
Lyman
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction without confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances near Terny, this remains unverified. Russian forces attacked positions near Terny, Kolodyazi, and Zarichne.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk) and toward Ivano-Darivka (southeast of Siversk) but failed to advance.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces advanced in the Chasiv Yar area with confirmed movement into central Chasiv Yar. Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz forces were observed operating south of the city. While Russian sources claimed to have captured the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar and advanced in the northwest and southwest areas, these claims are unverified. Ukrainian Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets reported that Russian forces are using poor weather visibility to build up forces in northern Chasiv Yar and attack the Refractory Plant.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Toretsk without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed to have captured areas including the Fomikha Mine waste heap and parts of Rizdviana and Mykhaila Hrushevskoho Streets in northern Toretsk, with one source claiming complete control of Toretsk, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces continued attacks within Toretsk and nearby settlements including Krymske, Dyliivka, Ozaryanivka, and Shcherbynivka.
Russian forces continue to use a dangerous resupply tactic near Toretsk in the Donetsk region, where unarmed soldiers nicknamed “camels” carry ammunition and supplies to frontline troops on foot. This method, first used by Wagner forces during the Battle of Bakhmut in 2022-2023, has become even more dangerous due to the widespread use of FPV drones. A recent video shows one such mission ending when a Russian “camel” was shot by a sniper while attempting to move between buildings with supplies.
Pokrovsk
Russian and Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces regained positions in southern Kotlyne, while Russian forces captured Zelene and Novyi Trud south of Pokrovsk. While Russia claimed to have captured Vovkove, evidence suggests this occurred earlier on January 4. Russian forces conducted attacks across multiple settlements including Pokrovsk, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Nadiivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novoandriivka, and Kotlyne.
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov visited a forward command post in the Pokrovsk direction where he received reports from Central Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev and other commanders.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces advanced northwest of Kurakhove with confirmed movement west of Petropavlivka and northeast of Rozdolne. While Russian sources claimed to have cleared areas between Petropavlivka and Shevchenko and advanced toward Kostiantynopil and north of Sukhi Yaly, these claims are unverified. Russian forces reportedly aim to bypass Andriivka from the north to reach the T0515 Andriivka-Pokrovsk highway. Fighting continues across multiple settlements including Shevchenko, Andriivka, Ulakly, Dachne, Kostiantynopil, Yantarne, and Rozlyv, with Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacking near Dachne and Zelenivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka. While Russian military bloggers claimed their forces advanced 1.1 kilometers along Fontanna Street in the eastern part of town, this claim remains unconfirmed. Russian forces also launched operations toward Pryvilne and reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian vehicle near Novyi Komar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Kamyanske, northwest of Robotyne, but made no advances.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Kozatskyi Island, northeast of Kherson City but failed to make any advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major aerial attack against Ukraine, consisting of four Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Voronezh and 131 drones from various Russian regions. Ukrainian forces shot down 72 drones across 16 oblasts, while 59 drones were disabled by electronic warfare. The attacks damaged infrastructure, homes, and buildings in Poltava, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Mykolaiv regions. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian missiles struck residential areas in Synelnykivskyi Raion and two businesses in Dnipro City.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Europe to strengthen its security role amid Russian threats. He highlighted that Russia is outproducing Europe in military equipment despite having a smaller economy. Zelensky also raised concerns about Russia’s growing alliance with Iran and North Korea, comparing Russia to a “North Korea-like state” focused on nuclear weapons and hostility.
Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation arrested Colonel Dmytro Riumshin, former commander of the French-equipped 155th Brigade, on charges of negligence leading to mass desertion. The brigade, trained in France from September to November 2024 at a cost of $955 million, lost over 1,000 soldiers to desertion. The unit is currently deployed in the Pokrovsk sector, where it’s defending against Russian attacks in the Donetsk region. Despite its troubled history, recent reports indicate the brigade is successfully holding its positions, with several soldiers receiving Silver Cross medals for restoring a lost position. In response to these issues, Ukraine’s Army General Staff has established new oversight measures for the formation of future brigades to prevent similar problems.
Ukraine’s Security Service has arrested Oleh Druzh, the Armed Forces’ chief psychiatrist and deputy head of the Central Military Medical Commission, who is accused of illegally acquiring undeclared assets worth over $1 million during the war since Russia’s 2022 invasion, including multiple properties in Kyiv Oblast, Kyiv, and Odesa, four luxury BMWs, and land plots, with authorities finding nearly $200,000 in cash during searches. The arrest, which was approved by Defense Minister Umerov and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, could result in up to 10 years in prison for Druzh if convicted of illegal enrichment and false asset declarations.
Max Nazarov (real name Nazar Diorditsa), a former host of pro-Russian news channels Nash and NewsOne, has been detained in Ukraine for allegedly spreading pro-Kremlin propaganda. Following his January 18 arrest, a court ordered him held for 60 days with an option for bail at Hr 12 million ($285,000). The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claims he used his YouTube channel to justify Russian aggression and war crimes after the 2022 invasion. Both Nash and NewsOne were previously connected to pro-Russian figures: Nash was owned by Yevheniy Muraiev, who fled to China after the invasion, while NewsOne was part of Viktor Medvedchuk’s media network before being banned in 2021. Medvedchuk now lives in Russia following a prisoner exchange in 2022.
The 78th Air Assault Regiment has launched an internal investigation following allegations by soldier Vitalii Holovnia that excessive demands on troops have led to fatal accidents with explosives. Holovnia reported that an unmanned platoon commander’s demands have resulted in exhausted soldiers working around the clock, with some accidents being recorded as battlefield losses. He also claimed the unit lacked proper communications equipment while operating in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The investigation comes as Ukraine faces ongoing challenges with mobilization and personnel shortages. The regiment’s command has urged against hasty conclusions while the investigation proceeds.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Germany’s KNDS Deutschland, a tank manufacturer, has partnered with a Ukrainian defense company to establish a joint venture, announced Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin. The collaboration will focus on repairing Leopard 2 tanks and other military equipment while creating local jobs. Ukrainian specialists have already received training in Germany, and initial systems are in place. This development is part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to increase domestic weapons production, which currently meets about 33% of its needs, up from 10% before the Russian invasion. The country plans to invest $35 billion in weapons production in 2025, with half the funding expected from allies.
Ukraine’s Allies
Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel proposed giving Russian weapons captured in Lebanon to Ukraine during a meeting with Ukrainian Ambassador Yevhen Korniychuk. The weapons were seized during Israel’s September 2024 invasion of southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. The discussion highlighted mutual concerns over Iran-Russia military cooperation, as Iran continues supplying Russia with Shahed drones and missiles used against Ukraine. The initiative follows Iran and Russia’s signing of a strategic agreement on January 17.
Ukraine and Albania signed a 10-year security cooperation agreement at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The agreement includes defense collaboration, intelligence sharing, cyber security, and nuclear safety measures, with Albania pledging continued military and humanitarian support at current levels. Albania will participate in the fighter jet coalition by providing English language training for Ukrainian pilots and technicians. The agreement follows Albania’s recent opening of its first embassy in Kyiv and reaffirms Albania’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The European Union has dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian energy, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Russian gas imports have dropped by 75%, oil imports are down to 3%, and coal imports have been eliminated entirely.
Russia News
Residents from several districts in Russia’s Kursk Oblast protested on January 18 and 21 outside the regional administration building, demanding to meet with newly appointed Acting Governor Alexander Khinshtein. The protests in Sudzhansky, Korenevsky, Bolshesoldatsky, and Glushkovsky districts highlight ongoing issues with housing and support for residents displaced by Ukrainian military actions. Despite Putin appointing Khinshtein in December 2024 to address these problems after removing the previous governor, the situation remains unresolved, with residents citing lack of permanent housing, problems with temporary accommodation, and poor communication from leadership.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1950
823980 |
Tanks +11
9844 |
Artillery +60
22194 |
Arm. Veh. +
20485 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities are increasing financial incentives for military recruitment. The Mari El Republic is raising volunteer recruitment bonuses to 1.8 million rubles ($18,000), while conscripts who sign contracts will receive 1 million rubles ($10,000). The Russian Military’s Africa Corps is offering similar bonuses, with Moscow-area recruits eligible for 1.9 million rubles ($19,000) and St. Petersburg recruits 1.7 million rubles ($17,000).
Russia is expanding its “Time of Heroes” program from federal to regional levels to place veterans in government positions. Irkutsk Oblast’s new “Heroes of Priangarie” program, starting February 2025, aims to integrate veterans into the regional economy. According to sources, the Kremlin has directed all regions to create veteran training programs by July 2025, with requirements to place 20% of participants in government jobs by October 2025 and 80% by 2026.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com