Summary of the Day:
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi inspected the damaged Kyivska Electrical Substation in Kyiv Oblast warning that Russian strikes on this facility could trigger a nuclear accident. The substation, which connects to the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant and provides power to Kyiv and parts of central and northern Ukraine, is part of critical infrastructure under threat from Russian attacks.
Russian State Duma Defense Committee officials claimed Russia does not need another involuntary reserve call-up, despite evidence suggesting recruitment challenges. The Russian Ministry of Defense has proposed reclassifying various health conditions to make it harder for potential recruits to claim medical exemptions. Near Kupyansk, Russian forces have made recent advances, while operations near Siversk are reportedly hampered by commanders filing false progress reports.
Kharkiv Oblast occupation governor Vitaly Ganchev stated Russian forces intend to seize all of Kharkiv Oblast, claiming it necessary to create a “sanitary zone” protecting neighboring regions. While Russia currently occupies parts of northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, President Putin did not include it in his June 2024 territorial demands to Ukraine.
Multiple Russian naval vessels have departed Syria’s Port of Tartus amid ongoing base access negotiations. Ukrainian naval drone strikes have forced Russia to reroute vessels through the Baltic Sea and Atlantic Ocean rather than the Black Sea, significantly extending travel times between Russia and Syria. Additionally, Russian cargo ships have been observed conducting surveillance of NATO vessels in the Baltic Sea, coinciding with NATO exercises in the region.
Picture of the Day:
A woman cleans debris around a heavily damaged building near the site of a missile attack in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. A Russian missile attack killed five people and wounded over 50 more, officials said. (Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Multiple Russian naval vessels, including cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II, and several warships, have departed Syria’s Port of Tartus amid ongoing negotiations between Russia and Syria over Russia’s continued access to its naval bases. Satellite imagery showed these vessels off Tunisia’s coast, suggesting they are heading back to Russia rather than to Libya. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian ships began evacuating weapons from Tartus on January 27. This significant withdrawal of vessels suggests the Kremlin may be pessimistic about maintaining its strategic naval presence in Syria, which could affect Russia’s military influence in the Mediterranean region and Middle East.
Russian military cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II, operated by the Defense Ministry’s Oboronlogistika company, were tasked with monitoring Latvian patrol vessels off Latvia’s western coast in April 2023, according to Ukrainian intelligence findings. This surveillance coincided with NATO’s Aurora 23 exercise near Sweden, suggesting Russia uses its cargo fleet for military intelligence gathering in the Baltic Sea region, potentially escalating tensions between NATO and Russia.
U.S. President Trump’s plan to lower global oil prices by increasing production to pressure Russia is facing resistance from both American oil producers and Saudi Arabia. Despite Trump’s claims that undercutting Russia’s oil revenue would force an end to the Ukraine war, U.S. shale producers and Saudi Arabia have indicated they won’t expand production. The stance could impact global peace efforts, as oil revenue continues to fund Russia’s war machine.
The European Commission has signed a €250 million energy independence strategy with Moldova to help the country reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies. The two-year plan includes €60 million in conditional aid for Transnistria, a Russian-occupied region facing energy shortages after Gazprom cut off gas supplies in January. The initiative aims to integrate Moldova fully into the EU energy market by 2026, with €100 million to be disbursed by mid-April. This support is crucial for Moldova’s energy security and EU integration efforts, as the country currently relies on a Transnistrian power plant dependent on Russian gas. The strategy represents a significant step in reducing Russia’s energy leverage in the region, potentially contributing to regional stability.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed willingness to engage in direct peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite viewing him as an enemy, stating that ending the war and saving Ukrainian lives takes precedence over personal feelings. While Zelensky proposes a four-party negotiation format including Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., and EU, and maintains that Ukraine won’t concede occupied territories, Putin has rejected direct talks, claiming Zelensky is “illegitimate.” With Ukraine facing military challenges and insufficient international support to reclaim lost territory, concerns about peace negotiations have grown, particularly regarding Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House and his special envoy Keith Kellogg’s involvement.
Amid these diplomatic tensions, Ukraine faces domestic political challenges as Zelensky’s original term would have ended on May 20, 2024. While Kellogg has called for parliamentary and presidential elections by year’s end, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, has confirmed that elections cannot be held while the war continues. Current martial law, in effect since Russia’s 2022 invasion, prohibits elections, and practical obstacles include damaged infrastructure from Russian attacks, the need for legislative changes, and establishing voting systems for refugees and military personnel. Zelensky has indicated elections could be scheduled once the “hot phase of the war is over.”
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian access to Russia’s “Mosaik” ship tracking system revealed that Russian vessels have dramatically altered their routes between Russia and Syria. While ships like Sparta IV previously traveled through the Black Sea and Turkish straits, Russian vessels now take a much longer route through the Baltic Sea and Atlantic Ocean. This change, implemented in Spring 2024, was likely prompted by successful Ukrainian naval drone strikes in the Black Sea. This rerouting significantly impacts Russia’s military logistics and demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian naval operations, potentially weakening Russia’s military presence in the Mediterranean region.
Russian military officials claimed to have intercepted a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missile over the Sea of Azov but this claim remains unverified.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked several areas in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast without confirmed advances. Fighting occurred near the settlements of Sverdlikovo, Nikolayevka, and Makhnovka around Sudzha. While Russian sources claimed advances near Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, a Kremlin-affiliated source reported that operations near Makhnovka have paused due to Ukrainian drone activity and weather conditions, with Russian forces withdrawing from the area.
South Korea’s intelligence agency reported that North Korean forces stopped combat operations in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast in mid-January due to high casualties. The New York Times cited a US defense official saying new North Korean troops are expected to arrive in Russia by March 2025, potentially contributing to Russia’s current operational pause in the region.
Ukrainian forces conducted a precision strike on a Russian command post near Novoivanovka in Kursk Oblast, causing significant casualties according to Ukraine’s military leadership and General Staff, with the target reportedly being used to coordinate Russian offensive operations in the area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked areas north and northeast of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and Vovchansk without making advances. A Ukrainian military spokesperson reported that Russian forces in northern Vovchansk are conducting continuous strikes on Ukrainian positions using artillery, rockets, guided bombs, and drones.
Kharkiv Oblast occupation governor Vitaly Ganchev stated that Russian forces intend to seize all of Kharkiv Oblast, claiming it is strategically necessary to create a “sanitary zone” protecting Belgorod, Kursk, and occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Ukrainian attacks. Ganchev revealed that occupation authorities had planned to hold an annexation referendum in August 2022, but Ukraine’s September counteroffensive prevented it. While Russia currently occupies parts of northern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, it has not attempted annexation, and President Putin did not include Kharkiv Oblast in his June 2024 territorial demands to Ukraine.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces advanced in central Zapadne, north of Kupyansk, while continuing operations near Petropavlivka and Pishchane. Russian-appointed Kharkiv official Vitaly Ganchev claimed capturing Dvorichna and Zapadne could allow Russian forces to advance toward Kupyansk, Velykyi Burluk, and Vovchansk.
Russian commanders near Kupiansk are reportedly threatening to execute soldiers who refuse to retake abandoned positions. The situation is critical as Russian forces are now just 2 kilometers from Kupiansk, having intensified their assault since September 2024. Russia aims to establish control along the Oskil River’s eastern bank to outflank Ukrainian defenses. In response, Ukraine has appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead the Khortytsia group to counter these advances.
Borova
Russian forces attacked multiple locations northeast and southeast of Borova without advances, including Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Novoyehorivka, and Hrekivka.
Lyman
Russian forces continued attacking positions northeast and east of Lyman near Yampolivka, Novolyubivka, Ivanivka, Terny, and Dibrova without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances around Ivanivka, a Ukrainian brigade reported Russian forces are losing armored vehicles and increasingly using civilian vehicles.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks northeast and east of Siversk near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske without confirmed advances, though Russian sources claimed an unconfirmed advance north of Vyimka. A Russian source reported a drone strike on a Ukrainian railway bridge near Siversk.
A Russian military blogger with Kremlin ties reports ongoing problems in the Siversk area, where field commanders continue submitting false battle progress reports despite recent leadership changes. While several Russian commanders were replaced following a reporting scandal, issues persist. Russian forces continue dangerous infantry attacks with inadequately trained and equipped soldiers.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar targeting the settlements of Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora, but failed to make confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed progress south of Chasiv Yar, this claim remains unverified.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Toretsk, including the northern outskirts, Krymske to the northeast, and Shcherbynivka to the west, but failed to gain any territory.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks in the Pokrovsk direction targeting numerous settlements including Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Myrolyubivka, Malynivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyarivka, Yelyzavetivka, Udachne, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Sribne, and Kotlyne. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Sribne and made advances near several other locations, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are using light vehicles like buggies and motorcycles rather than armored vehicles, conducting 10-20 small infantry assaults daily, though the overall pace of attacks has decreased.
Andriivka
Russian forces attacked several locations in the Kurakhove direction targeting areas near Dachne, Andriivka, and Kostiantynopil to the west, and Rozlyv, Zelenivka, Yantarne, and Rozdolne to the southwest. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a significant Russian mechanized assault near Bahatyr. While Russian sources claimed advances in Dachne and Andriivka, these claims remain unverified. Reports indicate increased Russian use of fiber-optic drones in the area.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked around Velyka Novosilka targeting the settlement itself and nearby areas including Novyi Komar to the north and Novosilka to the southwest. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a significant mechanized assault, destroying two tanks and two armored personnel carriers. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances of up to two kilometers north and west of Velyka Novosilka, these claims remain unverified.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited attacks near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast targeting Novodanylivka to the north and Shcherbaky to the northwest. While a Russian source claimed advances north of Myrne, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Kherson City targeting the settlements of Antonivka and Prydniprovske but failed to make any advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major aerial attack against Ukraine deploying 65 Shahed drones and decoy drones from Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 37 drones over multiple provinces, while 28 were neutralized by electronic warfare. The attacks damaged civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and several other regions. A Russian ballistic missile strike on Izyum in Kharkiv province hit a city council building.
Eight Ukrainian oblasts have implemented emergency power shutdowns due to increased consumption and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. The affected regions include Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and parts of Dnipropetrovsk and Cherkasy oblasts. While Ukraine has generally managed better than expected this winter, recent Russian strikes have damaged power facilities, and falling temperatures are increasing demand.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi inspected the damaged Kyivska Electrical Substation in Kyiv Oblast, which connects to the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant and provides power to Kyiv and parts of central and northern Ukraine, warning that Russian strikes on this critical infrastructure could trigger a nuclear accident not only through direct attacks on plants but also through power supply disruptions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine is willing to partner with allies on rare earth mining projects. This statement follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about seeking Ukrainian rare earths in exchange for aid. Zelensky emphasized that such partnerships would be fair, particularly with nations providing military support and sanctions against Russia. He expressed concern that without proper partnerships, these resources could fall under Russian control, potentially benefiting countries like Iran and North Korea.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine is finalizing arrangements for the first U.S. delegation visit under Donald Trump’s presidency. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, is expected to lead the delegation. The Ukrainian Presidential Office is coordinating with Trump’s team, including Kellogg and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. Kellogg has indicated a goal of reaching a solution to the war within 100 days of Trump’s inauguration.
The Committee to Protect Journalists has raised concerns over Ukraine’s criminal investigation of independent news website Ukrainska Pravda for allegedly revealing state secrets. The investigation stems from the outlet’s reporting of closed parliament comments by Security Service (SBU) head Kyrylo Budanov about the need for peace talks before summer. The case heightens tensions between the news outlet and the president’s office, which has previously criticized Ukrainska Pravda’s government coverage. CPJ’s Europe coordinator Gulnoza Said urged Ukrainian authorities to respect source confidentiality and press independence.
President Volodymyr Zelensky strongly criticized Tucker Carlson for spreading Russian propaganda, particularly regarding claims about religious freedom and Russian speakers’ rights in Ukraine. Zelensky pointed out that these claims directly echo Putin’s narratives and noted the irony that Russian attacks have predominantly affected Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine. He accused Carlson, who recently interviewed both Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, of effectively working for Putin by spreading misinformation to American audiences. Zelensky bluntly suggested that Carlson should “stop working for Putin” and cease spreading Russian propaganda.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 68
Russian forces launched a ballistic missile strike on the city center of Izyum in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, killing five civilians, including a pregnant woman, and injuring 55 others, with three children among the wounded – a six-year-old boy and two girls aged 14 (in serious condition) and 16. The attack damaged administrative and residential buildings, including a five-story structure, with Governor Oleh Syniehubov emphasizing that no military facilities were present in the targeted area.
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast left one person dead and nine others injured.
Russian forces attacked several settlements in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in one death in Pokrovsk and two injuries to civilians in the villages of Rubtsi and Bahatyr.
Russian forces struck Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring a 71-year-old woman and damaging an ambulance in separate attacks.
A Russian drone strike on Seredyna-Buda community in Sumy Oblast wounded one civilian.
In Kyiv, falling drone debris damaged an unfinished high-rise and a clinic in the Pechersk district. In Cherkasy Oblast, air defenses downed twelve Russian drones, though three businesses in Cherkasy caught fire. There were no casualties in either attack.
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack against Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. (State Emergency Service/Telegram)
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Vadym Filashkin/Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Union announced that experts from 37 countries have established the legal framework for a Special Tribunal to prosecute Russia for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. The announcement outlines plans for a court specifically focused on Russia’s invasion, distinct from the International Criminal Court’s existing warrant against Putin for child abductions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized this development as a step toward justice, while EU Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath indicated that final technical details are still being completed.
Italy pledged 2 million euros ($2.07 million) through the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) to strengthen Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which has faced consistent Russian attacks since 2022. The project aims to make Ukraine’s power system more resilient by integrating renewable energy and improving efficiency. While recent Russian attacks have targeted energy facilities, warmer weather has helped Ukraine avoid scheduled blackouts. The initiative includes technology transfer and training between Italian and Ukrainian experts to build local expertise and develop sustainable energy policies.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized former U.S. President Trump’s recent proposal to link Ukraine military aid to access to the country’s rare earth resources. Trump suggested Ukraine should “secure what we’re giving them with their rare earths,” while Scholz called this approach “very selfish.” The discussion comes amid uncertainty over U.S. aid to Ukraine, with USAID programs already losing funding under the new administration.
Polish support for Ukraine’s military effort has declined, with those backing continued assistance dropping from 54% to 49% during 2024. The shift reflects a broader trend of weakening support across Western nations as the war approaches its third anniversary. While Poland remains a major supporter of Ukraine, hosting nearly 1 million refugees, public attitudes have grown more negative due to historical tensions and trade disputes. Support for refugee assistance has also decreased from 94% in March 2022 to 40% by late 2024. This declining support in a key ally nation could impact Ukraine’s ability to maintain international backing for its defense efforts.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine has recovered 12 children from Russian-occupied territories, announced Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. Presidential Advisor Daria Herasymchuk reports that Russia has illegally deported at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since 2022.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces pressure from Greenpeace Ukraine to prevent Russia from restarting reactors at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe’s largest nuclear facility under Russian control since March 2022, with Russian officials including Rosatom Director Alexey Likhachev and Putin’s deputy chief of staff Sergey Kiriyenko expressing intentions to restart the reactors to generate power for Russia. While IAEA Director Grossi maintains restart is impossible under wartime conditions and Greenpeace warns that any reactor restart under Russian occupation would be illegal and dangerous, the plant has already experienced multiple disconnections from Ukraine’s power grid due to Russian attacks on infrastructure, posing significant nuclear safety risks across the country where nuclear power accounts for over half of energy production.
Oleksandr Yanukovych, son of Ukraine’s former pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych who fled Ukraine in 2014 and reportedly gained Russian citizenship in 2024, is allegedly exporting coal from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories through Energoresurs, a Rostov-on-Don-based company that exported nearly 500,000 tons of coal in 2023-2024, primarily to Turkey through Energy Union, a British Virgin Islands-registered company, selling it at artificially low prices ($60 per ton) through offshore companies to minimize export duties before reselling at higher prices. While Energoresurs, which reported revenues of $35.1 million between 2021 and 2023, is officially owned by Alexey Ivanov, evidence suggests strong connections to Yanukovych’s business network, including a $7 million loan from a Cyprus company previously linked to Yanukovych’s Mako Holding, with the scheme representing a significant case of profiting from resources in occupied Ukrainian territories and potentially funding Russian occupation efforts in the region, and though the company previously exported to several European countries, it now focuses on Turkey, with Yanukovych remaining under Western sanctions.
Russia News
Raiffeisen Bank International, the largest Western bank still operating in Russia, reported its first quarterly loss in nine years, losing 926 million euros ($955 million) in the fourth quarter of 2024. While the Austrian bank announced plans to scale down its Russian operations in July 2024, court rulings and government restrictions have complicated its withdrawal. The bank has accumulated 4.4 billion euros in trapped capital within Russia, and reports indicate its Russian subsidiary has been cooperating with companies that supply the Russian military. This situation highlights the ongoing challenges Western companies face in attempting to exit the Russian market while potentially indirectly supporting Russia’s military efforts through their continued operations.
President Vladimir Putin has ordered the revival of Intervision, the Soviet-era alternative to Eurovision, to be hosted in Moscow in 2025. This move comes after Russia was banned from Eurovision in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine. Russian officials claim over 25 countries have expressed interest in participating, including BRICS nations and Latin American countries. The original Intervision ran briefly in the 1960s and 1970s as the Soviet Union’s answer to Eurovision. Russia participated in Eurovision from 1994 until its 2022 ban, winning once in 2008, while Ukraine has won three times, most recently in 2022. This cultural initiative appears to be part of Russia’s broader efforts to create alternative international platforms following its isolation from Western institutions.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Russian courts experienced an unprecedented surge in missing persons cases in 2024, with 20,000 claims filed compared to the pre-war annual average of 8,000, primarily initiated by military commanders seeking to declare missing soldiers dead to facilitate recruitment replacements, while Ukraine’s “I Want to Find” project has received over 60,000 total requests from Russian families, including 8,548 in January 2024 alone (a 22% increase from December), with 1,790 Russian soldiers confirmed in Ukrainian captivity and 408 already exchanged. This surge hints at significant Russian losses, with estimates ranging from 600,000 to 840,000 casualties, while Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Tsivilyova revealed 48,000 DNA test applications from families searching for missing relatives, though Moscow withholds official figures, and Ukraine’s Coordination Centre for the Treatment of Prisoners of War suggests the actual numbers of missing Russian personnel could be two to three times higher than reported, as many families have not yet contacted their project.
Troops +1140
844070 |
Tanks +9
9947 |
Artillery +52
22707 |
Arm. Veh. +12
20721 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian State Duma Defense Committee officials claimed that Russia does not need another involuntary reserve call-up, despite evidence suggesting recruitment challenges. Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov cited Russia’s battlefield “advantage,” while member Viktor Sobolev stated that 740,000 people have signed military contracts since 2022. However, reports from late 2024 and January 2025 indicate that Russian monthly recruitment barely matches casualty rates, with some regions failing to meet quotas. In response, the Russian Ministry of Defense proposed to reclassify various health conditions – including syphilis, hypertension, mental disorders, and other ailments – to make it harder for potential recruits to claim medical exemptions.
Russia’s Samara Oblast is offering a record 4 million rubles ($40,000) signing bonus to attract military recruits, but most new contractors are being assigned to high-risk assault units with minimal preparation. According to Verstka’s investigation, recruits from across Russia are flooding to Samara, drawn by payments that are double those offered in Moscow. Many receive just two weeks or even two days of training before deployment to assault groups. One recruiter revealed that dormitories are full of applicants seeking the bonus, which includes 3.6 million rubles from regional funds and 400,000 from the Defense Ministry. The stakes are deadly – one soldier reported that only 2 out of 50 men in his unit survived. Despite the risks, the region continues aggressive recruitment, allocating 97 million rubles for recruiter salaries in 2024.
Russian authorities are expanding military influence in civilian government through the “Time of Heroes” veterans’ program. Recent appointments include veteran Nikolai Sergienko as Novgorod Oblast Deputy Minister of Construction, while veteran Boris Dudko is being considered for a leadership role in the Education Ministry’s Department of State Policy for Youth Education and Recreation.
Russia’s defense industry is developing new military equipment for use in Ukraine. The 88th “Hispaniola” Volunteer Brigade is testing the “Erika” communications system, though troops request modifications to counter Ukrainian electronic warfare. Meanwhile, the “Shadow” Detachment reports receiving the first ATV built from Russian-made Lada car parts.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com