Summary of the Day:
Russian forces achieved territorial gains across multiple sectors of the front, advancing near Kupyansk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, while also making progress in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces launched successful counterattacks near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, managing to recapture previously lost positions in these areas.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported a significant escalation in Russia’s use of banned chemical weapons, documenting 434 instances in December 2024 alone. This brings the total number of documented chemical weapons attacks to 5,389 since February 2023.
In a notable development regarding Russian force generation efforts, Russian volunteer military detachments are actively working to increase their personnel numbers by recruiting women into their armed forces.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian doctors from the 33rd Brigade care for injured soldiers at a stabilization point near the frontline in the direction of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
U.S. and European intelligence services now believe damage to critical cables in the Baltic Sea was caused by accidents, not intentional Russian sabotage. The conclusion, based on intercepted communications and classified intelligence, eases earlier concerns about deliberate attacks by Russian shadow fleet vessels. While NATO had increased naval patrols in response, investigators found no evidence linking Moscow to the incidents. However, tensions remain high due to ongoing Russian hybrid warfare activities in Europe, including cyberattacks and election interference.
Syria’s new government has banned Russian, Iranian, and Israeli goods from entering the country, with violating items to be seized at borders. This follows Syria’s recent restrictions on Iranian and Israeli passport holders. The dramatic policy shift comes after rebels overthrew Russia-backed Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Ukraine has moved quickly to establish relations with Syria’s new administration, with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha making a landmark visit aimed at increasing trade ties. The ban marks a significant departure from Syria’s previous alliances and could heighten regional tensions, particularly given Russia’s former military presence in Syria used for Middle East and African operations.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has accused opposition leader Michal Simecka of attempting a coup following Simecka’s recent visit to Kyiv. The accusation came after Simecka led opposition MPs to Ukraine to counter Fico’s anti-Ukraine stance. Fico, who openly opposes military aid to Ukraine and its NATO membership, has recently threatened to limit aid to Ukrainian refugees and cut electricity supplies to Ukraine. Tensions have escalated since the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine on January 1. While President Zelensky has invited Fico to Kyiv and potential talks are being discussed, Fico maintains his pro-Russian position, vowing to veto EU financial aid to Ukraine. His December meeting with Putin sparked protests in Bratislava, with thousands demonstrating under the slogan “We are not Russia.” Slovak opposition parties are now seeking a no-confidence vote against Fico’s government. The situation highlights growing divisions within NATO and EU member states over Ukraine support, potentially impacting European unity.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Ukrainian military has launched an investigation into the 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade, following significant shortcomings discovered during recent inspections. Led by Deputy Commander-in-Chief Oleh Apostol, the probe comes after similar issues with the French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade, which faced a mass desertion scandal near Pokrovsk. The military plans to address problems in the 156th Brigade by replacing leadership, appointing combat-experienced commanders, and improving training, particularly for drone pilots and electronic warfare operators. The investigation reflects broader challenges faced by Ukraine’s 14 newly formed brigades, with Ground Forces Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi citing management issues and recruitment mistakes as contributing factors.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced near the town of Kurilovka, south of Sudzha, in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. Russian military units, including airborne and special forces, are operating in several locations including Novoivanovka, Berdin, and areas near Viktorovka and Nikolayeva. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted reconnaissance operations around Malaya Loknya and Viktorovka.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly struck Kazan, Russia, causing a fire in the city’s Aviastroitelny district. The attack appeared to target the Kazan Aviation Plant, which manufactures strategic bombers, and the nearby Borisoglebskoye airfield with fuel storage facilities. Located 900 kilometers from Ukraine’s border in Tatarstan, the incident led to flight suspensions at Kazan International Airport, Begishevo, and Izhevsk airports. While Russian officials claim all drones were intercepted with no damage, this follows recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities in Tula and Kaluga regions on January 18.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian artillery ammunition usage has dropped from 40,000 rounds per day to approximately half that amount, following sustained Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets. Ukraine has been targeting Russian ammunition depots, industrial facilities, and oil refineries to disrupt Russia’s military supply chain.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, but made no advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces advanced along the Russia-Ukraine border northeast of Kupyansk with confirmed advances near Stroivka. They also conducted attacks near Petropavlivka and Pishchane. While Russian sources claimed advances southwest of Stepova Novoselivka, these reports remain unconfirmed.
Borova
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Borova attacking multiple settlements including Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Zeleny Hai, Nadiya, Pershotravneve, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, and Novoserhiivka. While Russian sources claimed advances from Vyshneve to Zelenyi Hai, these remain unconfirmed. Local officials report decreased aerial, and artillery strikes on Borova but increased ground operations in the area.
Lyman
Russian forces advanced northeast of Lyman capturing the settlements of Ivanivka and Terny, with further advances west of Ivanivka and south of Terny. Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Novosadove, Novolyubivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna, Zarichne, and the Serebryanske forest area. Ukrainian forces reported a successful counterattack in an unspecified area of the Lyman direction.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Siversk attacking near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Ivano-Darivka, but made no advances.
Chasiv Yar
Recent fighting in Chasiv Yar has seen both Russian and Ukrainian forces make advances. Ukrainian forces regained positions at the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces advanced along Tolstoho Street in the western part of the city. Russian forces also continued attacks near the settlements of Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. While Russian sources claim additional captures in the Novopivnichnyi and Desyata areas, these claims remain unverified.
Toretsk
Fighting continues near Toretsk with both sides making advances. Ukrainian forces recaptured positions in southern Shcherbynivka, while Russian forces advanced at the Toretska Mine in northern Toretsk and along Stepana Razina Street in western Toretsk. Russian forces also continued attacks near Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka. While Russian sources claim additional advances at the Tsentralna Mine and in Krymske, these claims remain unverified.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Pokrovsk without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claim captures in Kotlyne, Mine No. 2, Uspenivka, Novoandriivka, and parts of Udachne, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces attacked multiple settlements including Zelene Pole, Baranivka, Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Yelyzavetivka, Oleksandropil, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Nadiivka, Novotroitske, Zelene, and Shevchenko. Russian forces are reportedly advancing slowly in small settlements, taking several days to capture areas of just two to three streets.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces made a small advance southwest of Stary Terny, northwest of Kurakhove. Russian forces continued attacks near multiple settlements including Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Kostiantynopil, Andriivka, Dachne, Ulakly, and Yantarne. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Dachne and Zelenivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces made a small advance in eastern Velyka Novosilka. The advance may be linked to a recent Russian mechanized assault from Shakhtarske involving 13 vehicles. Russian forces continue attacking from multiple directions around Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian sources reporting that Russian forces are exploiting poor weather conditions to pressure Ukrainian positions from the north.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched offensive operations near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne, but failed to make any territorial gains.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Dnipro direction but failed to make any advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major drone attack against Ukraine sending 61 Shahed and other drones from Bryansk, Oryol, and Rostov regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 43 drones across multiple regions including Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv. Fifteen drones were disabled by electronic warfare. Additionally, a Russian Iskander-M missile struck Vysokiy near Kharkiv City, damaging buildings and vehicles. Belarusian monitors reported at least 12 Russian drones crossed through Belarusian airspace during the attack.
Ukraine’s new military rights commissioner, Olha Reshetylova, reported receiving nearly 4,000 appeals in her first 20 days. The majority of concerns focus on two main issues: soldiers being denied medical treatment and problems with military unit transfers. Reshetylova highlighted serious cases, including commanders denying treatment for injuries, PTSD, and other urgent medical conditions. In one case, an HIV-positive soldier was threatened with desertion charges for seeking needed surgery. While she is personally intervening in some cases, Reshetylova stressed the need for systematic solutions, particularly regarding both the health of servicemembers and the promised but poorly implemented unit transfer system through the Army+ app. The position of military ombudsman was created in April by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry to handle soldiers’ rights violations and provide legal assistance.
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree imposing sanctions on 18 pro-Russian figures, including prominent politicians Yuriy Boyko, Nestor Shufrych, and Yevhen Muraiev. The sanctions target individuals working as propagandists for Russia or who have sided with the enemy. Notably, Boyko, a former leader of the now-banned Opposition Platform — For Life party, faces losing his Hero of Ukraine title. Shufrych was arrested for financing Russia’s National Guard in occupied Crimea, while Muraiev, who reportedly left Ukraine in 2022, was charged with treason for spreading pro-Russian propaganda through his media outlets.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska visited wounded soldiers in Kyiv. The soldiers were injured fighting in Pokrovsk and Kharkiv Oblast, as well as Russia’s Kursk Oblast. During the visit, they discussed mental health support and accessibility issues facing wounded veterans. The leaders presented military awards and met with medical staff to review initiatives, including combat stress control groups and psychological rehabilitation programs. The First Lady emphasized the need for comprehensive support extending to families and medical staff. The visit also highlighted the Movement Without Barriers project, which is creating wheelchair-accessible routes in 12 Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine has increased its domestic weapons production to cover about 33% of its needs, up from less than 10% before the invasion, with Europe and the U.S. each providing around 30% of Ukraine’s weaponry. Ukraine plans to invest $35 billion in weapons production in 2025, seeking half the funding from allies.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukraine is developing its own air defense systems to counter Russian attacks, particularly the new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. The initiative comes as Ukraine seeks to match U.S. Patriot capabilities and protect its energy infrastructure. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has challenged Western air defense systems, claiming they cannot intercept the Oreshnik missile. Ukraine plans to spend $35 billion on weapons production in 2025, with half expected from allies. The UK has already agreed to help finance air defense systems production in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Allies
Slovenia delivered three specialized Cossack PM-L demining vehicles to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service. The vehicles, funded by Slovenia’s government and coordinated through the UNITED24 platform, will be used for demining operations and transporting explosive materials. State Emergency Service head Andrii Danyk said the vehicles will help reduce risks to sappers’ lives and improve explosive disposal efficiency.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Russian forces suffered their most severe losses of the war in 2024, with 150,000 soldiers killed in combat and total military losses reaching 434,000, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. As of January 19, Russia’s total war losses are estimated at 818,740 troops. While Russia has made territorial gains in eastern Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, they experienced record casualties in late 2024, including their highest single-day loss of 2,030 troops in November. President Zelensky disclosed that Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers since the invasion began. At the current rate, Russian casualties are projected to exceed 1 million within six months.
Troops +1690
820430 |
Tanks +10
9821 |
Artillery +19
22074 |
Arm. Veh. +42
20454 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian military units, including the BARS-Sarmat Detachment, are expanding their recruitment efforts by actively seeking both men and women for combat roles in Ukraine. This initiative was announced by Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Russia’s space agency and current Zaporizhia Oblast occupation senator.
Russia’s Allies
A Russian military blogger reported that Russia and Iran may exchange military equipment following their Strategic Partnership Agreement signed January 17. The potential deal could involve Russia providing fighter jets and air defense systems in exchange for Iranian drones, missiles, and specialized machine guns – with the latter potentially being used against Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com