Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces achieved limited advances during mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast, particularly along the Sudzha-Oboyan highway and near Fanaseyevka, though Russian sources claim to have temporarily halted further progress. Meanwhile, Russian forces reported gains near Borova and Toretsk. Russian defense forces in the Sudzha area.
Ukrainian military officials highlighted their growing drone capabilities, with First Deputy Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Ivan Havrylyuk reporting that Ukraine now leads Russia in FPV drone production. While drone warfare has proven highly effective, with Ukrainian forces achieving a reported seven-to-one casualty ratio in some areas, military officials acknowledge that personnel shortages continue to hamper their ability to fully stop Russian advances.
In Moscow, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met with President Putin to discuss the economy, claiming 4.1% GDP growth in 2024 despite sanctions. However, independent studies suggest Russia’s inflation rate is closer to 20%, rather than the officially reported 9.9%, and the National Welfare Fund could be depleted by Fall 2025.
Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has appointed two new Deputy Defense Ministers: Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk, who will oversee mobilization and military training, and Captain Valeriy Churkin, who will lead defense innovation and technological development initiatives.
Picture of the Day:
A man prepares to board up windows of a residential building damaged by shelling in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast. (Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Syria’s Interim Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra indicated openness to Russia maintaining its military bases in Syria in exchange for economic benefits. This potential cooperation with Russia could jeopardize European Union plans to lift sanctions on Syria, as the EU’s conditions require Syria to pursue peace without Russian or Iranian involvement. Meanwhile, Russia continues to remove military assets from the Port of Tartus while negotiations remain stalled. This situation could impact regional stability and complicate Syria’s path to economic recovery.
Azerbaijan is preparing legal action against Russia over the December 25, 2024, downing of an Azerbaijani Airlines passenger plane near Aktau, Kazakhstan, which Azerbaijan believes was shot down by Russian air defense. While Russian President Putin previously apologized for the crash occurring in Russian airspace, he has not accepted responsibility or taken action against those responsible, leading to deteriorating relations between the two countries. In response, Azerbaijan has closed the local branch of Rossotrudnichestvo, a Russian cultural diplomacy agency, citing national security concerns. This incident has heightened tensions between the two nations and could impact regional stability, particularly given Russia’s current involvement in other conflicts. The dispute adds to growing international concerns about aviation safety and Russia’s military conduct in its sphere of influence.
The Belarusian monitoring group Belarusian Hajun, which tracked Russian military movements since 2022, has suspended operations following a security breach that exposed user data and led to at least one detention by authorities. The group, previously labeled as an “extremist organization” by Belarus, played a crucial role in monitoring Russian troop activities related to the Ukraine war. This shutdown represents a significant loss of independent monitoring capability in the region, potentially impacting transparency around military movements near the Ukraine border.
The Path to Peace
President Trump announced that he expects to meet with President Zelensky next week in Washington and plans to speak with Russian President Putin. During a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, Trump expressed his intention to end the war quickly by bringing both sides to negotiations. The meetings will focus on Ukraine’s mineral resources, particularly rare earth elements, as part of a potential aid agreement. Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg confirmed that a U.S. plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war will be presented soon, though no specific timeline was given. While the Kremlin welcomed Trump’s interest in meeting Putin, they noted no preparations are currently in progress.
U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg will visit Ukraine on February 20, following the Munich Security Conference, according to Ukrainian President Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. The visit aims to brief the new U.S. administration on battlefield conditions, mobilization efforts, and weapons supply needs. Kellogg, who claims Trump has a “reliable plan” to end the war, has proposed freezing the front line, postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership, and partially lifting Russian sanctions. Yermak emphasized Ukraine’s need to negotiate from a position of strength and secure guarantees against future Russian invasion.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made small advances during mechanized attacks in Kursk Oblast, particularly along the Sudzha-Oboyan highway and near Fanaseyevka. While Russian sources claim to have halted Ukrainian progress southeast of Sudzha, they acknowledge that Ukrainian forces maintain positions near several settlements including Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseyevka, and Ulanok. Fighting continues near Makhnovka, though there are conflicting reports about the status of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, with some claiming Ukrainian capture and others reporting Russian control.
President Zelensky reported that Russia has redeployed North Korean troops to Kursk Oblast, with hundreds of Russian and North Korean servicemen reportedly eliminated in recent fighting. While The New York Times previously reported North Korean troops had been pulled from the front, Ukraine’s intelligence chief Budanov indicated their numbers had decreased but hadn’t withdrawn completely. According to Budanov, approximately 8,000 North Korean soldiers are currently fighting in Kursk Oblast, where Russia maintains a force of 60,000 troops. South Korea’s intelligence service reported that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed and 2,700 wounded in the region since August 2024.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Kharkiv focusing on the Vovchansk area and reportedly near Mali Prokhody and Velyki Prokhody, but failed to make any territorial gains. The fighting continues near these settlements north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk, particularly around Petropavlivka, but made no confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed advances near Novomlynsk, Fyholivka, and Dovhenke, though these remain unverified. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are attempting to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichna using small rubber boats and are deploying tanks with infantry transport vehicles to the frontline.
Borova
Russian forces advanced northwest of Zahryzove, near Borova. They also conducted attacks in multiple areas around Borova, including near Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zeleny Hai, Lozova, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Novoserhiivka, and Hrekivka.
Lyman
Russian forces attacked multiple settlements north and northeast of Lyman, including Nove, Katerynivka, Zelena Dolyna, Novolyubivka, Terny, Kolodyazi, and Yampolivka, but did not advance. Russian forces reportedly entered the forest south of Yampolivka, creating a contested area. Ukrainian officials report that Russians are using small infantry teams and prison recruits to probe defenses, with well-trained units following up on attacks. At Terny, Russian forces have suffered over 1,000 casualties but have adapted by using smaller assault groups that are harder to detect by drones.
Bottom of Form
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk targeting areas near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske but made no advances. Ukrainian forces reported destroying a Russian “Zoopark-1” radar system used for detecting Ukrainian artillery positions in this area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar but failed to advance. While Russian sources claimed to have captured the Avanhard Stadium, Hospital No. 3, and three residential areas in western Chasiv Yar, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reported destroying one Russian tank and damaging three armored vehicles during a Russian assault south of the city.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced along Puzanova Street in northern Toretsk, with Russia’s Ministry of Defense claiming to have captured Toretsk and nearby Druzhba. While these broader claims remain unconfirmed, geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces still maintain positions on Toretsk’s outskirts. Russian sources indicate they plan to use any gains in Toretsk to push toward Kostyantynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces conducted widespread attacks near Pokrovsk targeting multiple settlements including Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Novotoretske, Lysivka, Zvirove, Pishchane, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiivka, Kotlyarivka, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, and Uspenivka, but made no advances. Ukrainian sources report that while Russian forces outnumber them significantly, Russian casualties have decreased from earlier peaks of 300-360 per day, though the fighting remains intense.
Andriivka
Russian forces attacked multiple areas around Kurakhove, including near Shevchenko, Kostiantynopil, Andriivka, and Dachne, but failed to advance. Russian artillery units were reported operating near Kurakhove and striking Ukrainian positions in Oleksiivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka targeting Rivnopil, Novyi Komar, and Rozdolne. While Russian sources claimed advances northwest of Velyka Novosilka, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces successfully defended against a Ukrainian mechanized attack near Kamyanske, northwest of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on February 5. While fighting continued in the region, Russian forces made no territorial gains.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting paused in the Kherson direction, with no combat reported by either Russian or Ukrainian sources.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major drone attack against Ukraine deploying 112 Shahed drones and decoys from multiple Russian regions including Kursk, Oryol, Bryansk, Rostov, and Smolensk. Ukrainian forces intercepted 81 drones across 13 oblasts, while strikes hit targets in Sumy, Kyiv, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reported shooting down a guided glide bomb over Zaporizhia Oblast.
A Ramstein-format Ukraine Defense Contact Group summit will be held in London on February 12, taking place in Brussels instead of the usual U.S. Ramstein Air Base location. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said Ukraine expects important decisions regarding air defense and weapons production investments. The group, which includes all 32 NATO members among its 50+ participating countries, has met 25 times since its establishment in April 2022.
Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has appointed two new Deputy Defense Ministers: Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk, who previously served as Special Envoy for International Security Assurances and Defense Forces Development and former Air Assault Forces commander, will oversee mobilization, military training and development, while Captain Valeriy Churkin will focus on defense innovations and military technology development.
Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced that 37 Ukrainian lawmakers have traveled to the United States at their own expense to rebuild relations with the U.S. Congress. This diplomatic initiative comes despite President Zelensky’s recent criticism of lawmakers’ foreign travel. Stefanchuk emphasized that the bipartisan delegation’s visit wouldn’t disrupt the Verkhovna Rada’s operations, noting that parliamentary work extends beyond voting sessions.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) will continue its work investigating Russian war crimes in Ukraine despite new U.S. sanctions, according to Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi. President Trump imposed asset freezes and travel bans on ICC officials and their families in response to investigations involving the U.S. and Israel. Ukraine, which joined the ICC on January 1, 2024, is working with the court to pursue justice for Russian aggression. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for several Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, Maria Lvova-Belova, Sergei Shoigu, and Valery Gerasimov, primarily for the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communication has denied recent media reports, including a Forbes article, about Russia’s alleged failed launch of its new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While Russia has used the Oreshnik once before against Dnipro in response to Ukraine’s ATACMS strikes, U.S. officials believe Russia has only a limited number of these experimental missiles. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that Ukraine currently lacks the air defense capabilities to intercept the Oreshnik.
Ukraine is seeking alternative funding sources after USAID programs were suspended, according to Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna. The government has secured preliminary agreements for critical programs in energy, infrastructure, digital transformation, and justice sectors. The European Commission and G7 countries are expected to announce decisions soon on resuming commissions that appoint members to Ukraine’s judiciary and anti-corruption institutions.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A 32-year-old man died at a military enlistment office in Chernivtsi Oblast while undergoing a medical examination after being wanted for mobilization evasion.
Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Ivan Havrylyuk reported that Ukraine leads Russia in FPV drone production, with over 1,300 new weapon models introduced since 2022, mostly drones. A Ukrainian battalion commander in the Pokrovsk area noted that drone strikes effectively disrupt Russian operations, with Ukrainian forces achieving a seven-to-one casualty ratio despite being outnumbered. However, the commander emphasized that more personnel are needed to fully halt Russian advances, despite the effectiveness of drone warfare.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Zelensky is seeking a strategic partnership with the United States, offering access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for continued military and financial support. He revealed that while Russia occupies about half of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, 80% of the country’s total mineral wealth remains under Ukrainian control. Ukraine possesses Europe’s largest titanium reserves and significant uranium deposits. Zelensky warned that Russian allies like North Korea and Iran could exploit occupied resources. He plans to discuss these matters at the Munich Security Conference (February 14-16) with U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers are creating a major transportation crisis for Russia’s oil exports. The U.S. Treasury recently sanctioned 161 additional tankers, bringing the total to 265 vessels under restrictions. Of the ships that transported Russian crude in 2024, 37% are now under combined U.S., EU, and UK sanctions. These vessels were responsible for 57% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports last year. Shipping costs have risen dramatically, with transport costs to India from the Black Sea now at $10 per barrel, while Baltic routes cost up to $13 per barrel – a 48% increase since January 10. The restrictions have led to shipping delays and forced Russia to seek alternative transport methods for its oil exports, potentially threatening its ability to maintain current export levels.
Keith Kellogg, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, told The New York Post that President Trump plans to intensify sanctions against Russia to end the Ukraine war. Current sanctions, particularly on Russia’s energy sector, are rated “3 on a 10-point scale,” with Kellogg suggesting significant room for expansion. Trump has assembled his national security team, including Vice President J.D. Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, to develop a war-ending strategy. The administration aims for a “near-term resolution” within 100 days of inauguration and is considering a temporary ceasefire before permanent settlement. Kellogg will visit Ukraine for talks with Ukrainian officials and has proposed using frozen Russian assets to fund American arms supplies to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky has indicated diplomacy could be key to ending the war.
Bulgaria expects to earn €500 million from providing military aid to Ukraine, with €174 million already received from Denmark. The country is sending its Soviet-era military equipment to Ukraine, including ammunition, armored vehicles, and air defense missile parts, while using the compensation from NATO allies and the EU to modernize its own military with Western weapons. In 2024, Bulgaria provided 150 armored vehicles and Gvozdika howitzers to Ukraine. While this arrangement benefits Bulgaria’s military modernization and supports its goal of joining the eurozone in 2026, pro-Russian forces in the country, including President Rumen Radev and some political parties, remain opposed to the aid.
Czech President Petr Pavel signed new legislation extending temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until 2025, aligning with EU policy. The law allows refugees to access healthcare, education, and employment in Czechia, while creating a path to long-term residence permits for those living there over two years. The legislation also tightens restrictions on Russian citizenship applicants and criminalizes unauthorized foreign state activities. The changes come as Czechia leads initiatives to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine amid U.S. aid delays.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian-occupied Mariupol schools are requiring children to write thank-you letters to Russian troops ahead of Russia’s “Defender of the Fatherland Day” on February 23. Photos shared by the Mariupol City Council show students creating these letters in classrooms decorated with Russian military symbols and propaganda images. The Council condemned this as a propaganda campaign targeting children, noting the irony that these same “defenders” destroyed Mariupol and killed many of the students’ friends and relatives.
Russia News
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin claimed Russia’s GDP grew 4.1% in 2024, primarily due to manufacturing growth in defense-related industries, and while officials reported inflation at 9.52-9.9%, independent studies suggest it’s closer to 20%. During a meeting with Mishustin, President Vladimir Putin ordered new measures to lower inflation in 2025 and called for “balanced growth” while addressing rising consumer prices. Despite touting a low 2.5% unemployment rate, this figure reflects significant labor shortages, and while Mishustin claimed Russia has successfully adapted to sanctions, he warned of potential economic challenges in 2025. The Central Bank maintains a high interest rate of 21% due to Western sanctions, ruble depreciation, weak harvests, and increased defense spending, forecasting inflation to drop to between 5.2% and 8.6% by the end of 2025, though the report omitted key economic challenges, including the depleting National Welfare Fund, which could run out by Fall 2025.
Russia’s Justice Ministry has labeled the Register of Damage Caused by Russian Aggression against Ukraine as an “undesirable organization.” The register, established by the Council of Europe to document war damage and support victim compensation, joins 186 other organizations that Russia considers threats to its national security.
Russia plans to expand its power to seize frozen assets from companies and investors in countries that have sanctioned Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. This follows Putin’s May 2024 decree allowing seizure of U.S. property as compensation for Western asset freezes. The move comes as Western allies consider using $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, with only $3.2 billion in annual profits currently accessible to help finance a $50 billion G7 loan package for Ukraine.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1210
847860 |
Tanks +6
9981 |
Artillery +35
22820 |
Arm. Veh. +22
20777 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities have appointed Nursultan Mussagaleev, a veteran of the Ukraine war, as acting Deputy Minister in Orenburg Oblast through the “Time of Heroes” program, which places war veterans in government positions and has placed 23 veterans in various government and business roles across Russia. The Security Service of Ukraine previously identified him as being involved in “purge operations” and accused him of participation in civilian executions during the brutal occupation of Bucha in early 2022, where over 1,400 civilians, including 37 children, were killed. Despite his alleged role in these atrocities, Mussagaleev was awarded Russian military honors and has now been given a civilian government position.
Russia faces a significant labor shortage in its defense industry, with hundreds of thousands of worker positions unfilled across its 1,300 defense facilities, according to Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Havrylyuk. Despite increasing weapons production up to six times since 2022, Russia still cannot meet its military needs and relies heavily on North Korean ammunition (60% of shells) and support from Iran, while working to expand its domestic drone production.
Russia’s Allies
Belarus and Russia are strengthening their military partnership, with Belarus’ military industry chief Dmitry Pantus announcing maximum cooperation between the two countries, including joint aircraft production and development of AI-enabled FPV drones.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com