Summary of the Day:
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar, while simultaneously facing strategic challenges across multiple theaters. Reports indicate the Russian military continues to lose critical officer corps personnel, representing a difficult-to-replace resource amid mounting casualties.
Uncertainty surrounds Russia’s naval presence in Syria, with no confirmed evacuation of their Tartus naval base despite swift rebel advances across regime-held territory. Additionally, Russia appears to be redeploying some air defense assets from its Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, though the purpose remains unclear.
The Kremlin continues advancing its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework, expanding Russian military presence in the country. Belarusian President Lukashenko is attempting to preserve sovereignty by seeking control over deployed Russian weapons, including Oreshnik missiles, though analysts note this deployment doesn’t significantly increase immediate risks of IRBM strikes against Ukraine or NATO states.
In Kursk Oblast, the Kremlin replaced Governor Alexei Smirnov, apparently scapegoating him for inadequate responses to Ukraine’s incursion into the region. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov conducted an American media interview, pushing Kremlin talking points aimed at achieving a US-Russia reset on Moscow’s terms.
Western sanctions continue to degrade Russian military capabilities, particularly affecting drone quality through forced reliance on inferior Chinese components. Reports indicate Russia is struggling to procure basic supplies, including cold-weather tank lubricants and necessary manufacturing tools, suggesting long-term sustainability challenges for their defense industrial base.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of the Russian strike against the regional center of Zaporizhzhia in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration / Telegram)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The fluctuating Russian naval presence at Syria’s Tartus port raises concerns about regional stability and global peace. The strategic movement of major warships, including submarines and frigates capable of launching hypersonic and cruise missiles, signals potential shifts in Mediterranean naval power dynamics. While Russia claims these movements are for military exercises, the timing coincides with Syrian rebel advances, adding uncertainty to an already volatile region. This naval repositioning could affect the delicate balance of power in the Middle East and Mediterranean, potentially impacting international maritime security and peace efforts in Syria’s ongoing conflict. The situation bears watching as changes in military positioning often precede shifts in regional power dynamics.
Russia may be shifting its stance on Syria’s conflict in a significant way. Bloomberg reported that a Kremlin source indicated Russia has no plan to rescue President Assad as his forces lose ground. Adding to this development, the Russian Embassy in Syria has advised Russian citizens to leave the country due to the “difficult military and political situation.” This potential Russian withdrawal from supporting Assad could mark a major turning point in Syria’s civil war and impact regional stability. The situation suggests possible changes in Middle Eastern power dynamics that could either lead to renewed peace efforts or create a dangerous power vacuum in the region.
Russian forces are moving significant air defense systems in western Syria, potentially signaling a major shift in regional military presence. Footage from December 6 shows the transport of S-300 or S-400 and Tor-M1 systems near Baniyas along the Lakatia-Tartus highway. These systems, originally protecting Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base, are being moved following Syrian rebels’ capture of Hama City. Whether this represents a strategic repositioning or the beginning of a Russian withdrawal from Syria remains unclear. This military repositioning could significantly impact regional stability and the balance of power in Syria, potentially creating new security dynamics that could either escalate tensions or create opportunities for diplomatic solutions in this long-running conflict.
A significant shift in European security dynamics occurred on December 6 as Russia and Belarus deepened their military alliance. Presidents Putin and Lukashenko signed a new Union State security treaty in Minsk, with Belarus requesting Russian Oreshnik ballistic missiles, which Putin agreed to deploy by mid-2025. This merger of Russian and Belarusian military capabilities, allowing use of “all available forces and means” for mutual defense, effectively expands Russia’s military presence westward. This development raises concerns about regional stability, particularly given Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and could increase tensions between NATO and Russia’s expanding sphere of influence, potentially threatening European peace and security balance.
The Russia-Belarus treaty marks a critical escalation in nuclear security concerns. The agreement not only requires joint border defense but explicitly includes the potential use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus. This aligns with Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine from November 19, which formally extended Russia’s nuclear protection to Belarus. With plans to deploy Oreshnik ballistic missiles by 2025, this treaty represents a significant expansion of Russia’s nuclear reach into Eastern Europe. This development effectively diminishes Belarusian sovereignty and creates a new nuclear frontier closer to NATO borders, raising serious concerns for global peace and increasing the risk of nuclear tensions in Europe.
Beyond military integration, the December 6 Russia-Belarus Union State agreement includes significant civilian and economic mergers through ten additional documents. These agreements span consumer protection, anti-smuggling measures, energy market integration, and telecommunications, alongside military and nuclear commitments previously established. While appearing routine, these comprehensive civilian integrations, combined with the military aspects, suggest a deeper strategic merger of the two nations. This level of integration, masked partly by everyday administrative agreements, effectively extends Russia’s influence westward through economic and social ties, potentially creating a new power dynamic that could affect European stability and regional peace.
Belarusian President Lukashenko’s request for control over Russian-deployed Oreshnik missiles appears to be a futile attempt to maintain some sovereignty against increasing Russian dominance. Despite claims by Belarusian Security Council that Lukashenko controls Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, the reality shows otherwise – Russian military personnel will operate the Oreshnik systems, indicating Moscow’s true control. This dynamic reveals the increasing power imbalance between Russia and Belarus, with Lukashenko’s historical failures to maintain control over Russian military assets in Belarus continuing. This erosion of Belarusian independence and growing Russian military presence creates a concerning shift in European security dynamics, potentially destabilizing regional peace by placing more military assets under direct Moscow control closer to NATO borders.
Despite Russia’s recent agreement to deploy Oreshnik missiles to Belarus by mid-2025, military experts suggest this doesn’t significantly increase the threat to Ukraine or NATO members. While Russian leaders, including Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, emphasize these deployments and reference the November 21 Oreshnik strike on Dnipro City, this appears to be more about psychological impact than new military capabilities. Russia already regularly uses nuclear-capable weapons against Ukraine from existing locations, including Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and Kh-101 cruise missiles. The potential placement of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus represents more of a political statement than a meaningful change in military threat, as Russia already has similar strike capabilities from both mainland Russia and its Kaliningrad exclave.
Protests in Georgia have intensified as police crackdown on pro-EU demonstrators in Tbilisi, detaining opposition leaders Tsotne Koberidze and Nika Gvaramia. The nine-day demonstrations turned violent when protesters threw stones at parliament, prompting police to respond with water cannons and tear gas. The unrest follows Prime Minister Kobakhidze’s announcement to suspend Georgia’s EU accession until 2028, amid concerns that the ruling Georgian Dream party is shifting the country away from Western democracy and toward Russian influence. The party’s contested October election victory has further fueled tensions.
Romania’s Constitutional Court has nullified the first round of presidential elections after discovering evidence of foreign manipulation favoring pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu, who had secured 23% of the vote. Declassified documents revealed a coordinated social media campaign that artificially boosted Georgescu’s popularity from 1% to 22% through thousands of TikTok accounts. The annulment blocks a potential runoff between Georgescu and pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi. Georgescu’s rise raised concerns about NATO unity, as he promised to halt Ukrainian grain exports and military aid if elected. His potential victory would have aligned Romania with other Ukraine-skeptical NATO leaders like Hungary’s Orban and Slovakia’s Fico, potentially weakening Western support for Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a December 5 interview with American media, pushed for “normal” US-Russia relations while blaming the US and NATO for deteriorating relations. This aligns with President Putin’s November 7 statements seeking a reset in relations on Russia’s terms. Lavrov claimed Russia wants to end the Ukraine war based on UN Charter principles, despite Russia’s ongoing violation of these principles through its invasion of Ukraine. The interview appears to be part of a broader Kremlin strategy to influence US foreign policy without making any meaningful concessions or adjusting Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine. This continued hardline stance and refusal to consider withdrawal from occupied territories poses significant challenges for global peace efforts and stability in Eastern Europe, particularly as Russia seeks to normalize its actions while maintaining its aggressive posture.
The Path to Peace
China has called for international support to facilitate direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian. While China presents itself as a mediator and has proposed a six-point peace plan with Brazil, it maintains close ties with Russia during the ongoing war in Ukraine. The plan focuses on avoiding escalation, organizing peace conferences, increasing humanitarian aid, preventing nuclear risks, and protecting global supply chains, but notably omits addressing Ukraine’s territorial integrity or Russian troop withdrawal. Despite its mediation efforts, China has criticized Western military support to Ukraine while denying accusations of aiding Russia’s war efforts.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Western sanctions are impacting the quality of Russian military drones, according to a December 5 Washington Post report. Due to sanctions, Russia has been forced to buy lower-quality steering motors from China for its Shahed drones, leading to increased failure rates and maneuverability problems. Soldiers report the drones sometimes spin out of control after sharp turns, with Ukrainian officials noting more cases of Russian drones becoming “locally lost” during nightly strikes against Ukraine. This suggests that targeted sanctions are successfully degrading Russia’s defense industrial capabilities.
Russia faces broader supply chain challenges beyond drones, including difficulty obtaining basic necessities like cold-weather tank lubricants and computerized tools needed for manufacturing drones and missiles. China has become a critical supplier, providing about 60% of foreign components in Russian weapons used against Ukraine. While Russia is focused on increasing production quantity, analysts suggest this strategy isn’t sustainable long-term as sanctions continue to limit access to key military and dual-use components, potentially affecting their overall military capability.
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched naval drone attacks against occupied Crimea overnight, with local sources reporting explosions near the Zalyv shipyard and Kerch Strait Bridge; Russia claims its Black Sea Fleet aircraft destroyed six Ukrainian naval drones and used helicopters, ships, and electronic warfare to repel the attack, while also stating its air defense systems intercepted one additional Ukrainian drone over Crimea and its fleet destroyed two Ukrainian uncrewed boats. The 19-kilometer Kerch Strait Bridge, which was temporarily closed following these reports of Ukrainian drone activity, connects occupied Crimea to mainland Russia and has served as a key military supply route since Russia’s 2022 invasion, having previously sustained major damage from Ukrainian strikes in October 2022 and July 2023. The bridge remains a point of contention, with Ukraine arguing at the Permanent Court of Arbitration that it’s an unlawful structure impeding international shipping in the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Intense fighting continued between Ukrainian and Russian forces in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast with no confirmed changes to the front line. While Russian forces claimed to have reached the Psel River and entered Plekhovo, with operations in Martynovka, these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks near Novoivanovka and Darino, with one Special Operations unit reporting a successful ambush of Russian naval infantry. Ukrainian forces also captured 11 Russian prisoners, reportedly poorly trained former inmates.
A Ukrainian drone strike reportedly hit Russian military targets in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast on December 5. According to Russian sources, three drones targeted the headquarters of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, with two striking the main building and one hitting troop barracks.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks in the Kharkiv region without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed progress in Vovchansk, this remains unverified. Russian operations concentrated along several areas: near the international border towards Kozacha Lopan, Vysoka Yaruha, and Veterynarne; around Lyptsi north of Kharkiv City; and near Vovchansk and Tykhe. Reports indicate difficult terrain conditions near Lyptsi, limiting both sides to using only ATVs and motorcycles. Chechen special forces continue operations near Strilecha.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed progress near Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Pershotravneve, and reported crossing the Oskil River, these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian forces reportedly stopped a Russian river crossing near Novomlynsk and regained previously lost positions there. Fighting continued across multiple settlements including Synkivka, Zahryzove, Kolisnykivka, and the Serebryanske forest area. A Ukrainian commander reported successful counterattacks near Kupyansk, claiming to have destroyed most of a Russian mechanized assault force. Russian forces are reportedly using small vehicles like electric scooters and ATVs to navigate minefields and rarely deploy heavy equipment except for troop transport.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Artillery units from Russia’s “Nevsky” Volunteer Brigade continue operations near Vasyukivka, southwest of Siversk, though no active fighting was reported in the Siversk area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar targeting the central Refractory Plant and southern areas near Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora, but made no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claim control of 40% of Chasiv Yar, evidence suggests they hold only about 28.6% of the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces made small advances in southern Toretsk progressing along Shakhtariv and Haydara streets in the Zabalka Microraion area. While Russian sources claim additional advances in central Toretsk, Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful counterattack near Nelipivka. Fighting continues around Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made advances near Pokrovsk capturing Novopustynka and reaching the southern edge of Shevchenko. Russian forces are reportedly targeting Novotroitske and attempting to bypass Shevchenko using small units along the railway. Fighting continues across multiple locations including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zhovte, Chumatske, Dachenske, Pushkine, and Novotroitske. Russian military claims to have taken Petrivka and Pustynka, while footage suggests Ukrainian forces may be preparing to withdraw from Myrnohrad.
Kurakhove
Russian forces made advances near Kurakhove with confirmed progress southeast of the city and the likely capture of Stari Terny. Fighting continues in Kurakhove itself and in surrounding areas including Berestky, Zorya, Sontsivka, Dalne, and Dachne. Russian forces claim advances along the H-15 highway and Subornyi Avenue in Kurakhove, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian sources also suggest they may be close to encircling 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers south of Kurakhove.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced northwest of Vuhledar gaining ground near Uspenivka and reportedly capturing Sukhi Yaly and Kostiantynopolske. Russian sources claim they are working to encircle Ukrainian forces along the Sukhi Yaly River near Uspenivka, leaving Ukrainian troops with a narrow escape route less than two kilometers wide near Veselyi Hai and Hannivka. Fighting continues across the region, including near Rozdolne, Rozlyv, and Makarivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued attacks around Velyka Novosilka though no confirmed advances were made. While Russian sources claim advances west and southeast of Rivnopil and near Velyka Novosilka itself, these remain unconfirmed. Fighting continues across multiple locations including Novyi Komar, Rozdolne, Makarivka, Novodarivka, and Novosilka. Russian sources report that Ukrainian counterattacks near Novyi Komar and Rozdolne were unsuccessful.
Russian forces are reportedly planning to advance across the Sukyi Yaly River to capture Velyka Novosilka, but limited resources are forcing them to attempt a direct seizure rather than a larger encirclement operation. In the Vremivka area, Russian forces are using a mix of civilian vehicles and military equipment for attacks, with assault patterns showing 3-4 days of intense activity followed by a pause to replenish losses with reserve forces.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted to advance near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne, in western Zaporizhia Oblast but made no progress. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched an unsuccessful counterattack near Mala Tokmachka using infantry fighting vehicles.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Dnipro River without making any confirmed advances. Russian military sources report operations in the Dnipro River Delta but note their forces lack adequate boats and vehicles to effectively operate in the area.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched extensive drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, with 53 Shahed drones launched from Oryol Oblast, of which Ukrainian forces shot down 32 over multiple regions including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Poltava, while 16 were disrupted by electronic warfare; during these attacks, at least 10 Russian Shahed drones entered Belarusian airspace heading toward the cities of Homel, Loyew, and Mazyr, though Belarus, a key Russian ally, has not criticized Moscow for these repeated airspace violations, and the Belarusian Air Force did not respond to the incursions, despite having previously confirmed shooting down a drone in September for the first time since Russia’s invasion began. A Russian missile strike killed two civilians in Kryvyi Rih, while additional attacks hit Chernihiv Oblast, damaging civilian infrastructure in Koryukivskyi Raion; drone debris caused damage in Kyiv City, and in Voznesensk, missile debris damaged civilian and energy infrastructure.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 13 INJURIES: 41
Russian forces launched an aerial attack on Zaporizhzhia hitting a service station and surrounding area. Ten people were killed and twenty-four wounded, including two children aged 4 and 11. The attack also damaged nearby houses and shops. President Zelensky condemned the strike on civilian targets on St. Nicholas Day.
Russian forces launched a ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killing three people and injuring 17, including a six-year-old boy. The attack targeted an administrative building, destroying it and damaging nearby residential buildings and vehicles. One victim is believed to still be trapped under the rubble.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s President Zelensky announced on December 6 that the first batch of a new Ukrainian-made missile-drone hybrid weapon called “Peklo” (Hell) has been delivered to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The weapon has a range of 700 kilometers and travels at 700 km/h, with officials reporting it has already been used successfully five times. This development, along with the serial production of another missile-drone hybrid called “Palianytsia,” represents a significant advance in Ukraine’s domestic weapons program, providing alternatives to Western arms that often come with usage restrictions.
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Union failed to approve its 15th sanctions package against Russia due to disagreements over deadlines for European companies to withdraw investments from Russia. The package aimed to target Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers used to circumvent oil sanctions and address exemptions for Czechia to import Russian oil products through Slovakia. While Slovakia sought to extend the exemption that expired December 5, Czechia showed little interest in continuing Russian oil imports. The package discussion will resume later, with potential implementation targeted for February 24, 2025, marking three years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that Russian forces are blocking their staff from accessing key facilities at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, including the spare parts warehouse and diesel fuel storage area. Russian authorities claim they have repaired the diesel storage facility after two years.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov with Alexander Khinshtein, former head of the State Duma Information Policy Committee, amid concerns over Ukraine’s incursion into the region. The Kremlin announced on December 5 that Smirnov resigned “at his own request,” though this appears to be an effort to blame him for Russia’s inadequate response to the situation. In a public meeting the same day, Putin emphasized to Khinshtein the importance of crisis management in Kursk Oblast.
Khinshtein’s appointment follows local protests demanding housing assistance and ongoing issues with the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast that started in August 2024. Smirnov’s brief tenure – only 205 days total, with just 80 as elected governor – began with his appointment in May 2024 and formal election in September. Reports suggest the Kremlin delayed replacing Smirnov during the September election to minimize public attention to the Ukrainian incursion’s impact on the region.
Senior Russian officials praised Khinshtein’s appointment while criticizing Smirnov’s failure to address local housing concerns and communicate with residents. Among those backing the change were Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin, and Transport Minister Roman Starovoit. The timing suggests Putin made the change to show commitment to local social issues and quiet protests, while deflecting attention from Russia’s inability to stop Ukraine’s incursion into the region.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya and a close Putin ally, met with Ukrainian prisoners of war in Grozny following a Ukrainian drone strike on a police barracks in the city. During televised meetings, Kadyrov taunted the prisoners, offering one his pistol to commit suicide and suggesting others be used as human shields at construction sites. The drone strike on Grozny was significant as it marked the first conventional attack on the Chechen capital since 2003. This incident occurred just hours after Kadyrov’s Akhmat special police unit’s barracks was damaged and followed an earlier Ukrainian strike on a security facility in Gudermes on October 29. The events were heavily promoted through Russian state media, appearing to demonstrate Kadyrov’s continued control over Chechnya while portraying Ukrainians as inferior.
A 19-year-old Russian conscript, Artem Antonov, was fatally shot by his commander at the Ilyinsky training ground on October 21 after refusing to sign a military contract to fight in Kursk Oblast. Before his death, Antonov reported enduring torture and beatings for his refusal. His family found evidence of abuse when they received his body, which showed multiple bruises in addition to the gunshot wound.
Russia’s largest airline Aeroflot is planning to buy five Boeing 737-800BCF cargo planes solely to cannibalize them for spare parts, as Western sanctions continue to cripple Russia’s aviation industry. Unable to legally obtain aircraft components due to sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion, Russian airlines are resorting to desperate measures. The situation is so dire that about 30 Russian airlines, representing 26% of domestic traffic, face possible bankruptcy by 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of aviation sanctions in pressuring Russia’s economy.
Russia’s war chest is rapidly depleting, with its National Welfare Fund’s liquid assets falling from $140 billion to $53.8 billion since the Ukraine invasion began. The country has started selling its gold reserves, with 50 tons sold since June, leaving 279 tons. Russia faces growing budget deficits through 2027 totaling $61 billion, exceeding remaining reserves. Recent U.S. sanctions against 50 Russian banks have further strained the economy by disrupting financial transactions with China, forcing Russian importers to use intermediaries for payments. This financial pressure indicates the effectiveness of Western economic sanctions in constraining Russia’s war-making capabilities.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Russian forces suffered heavy losses while making territorial gains in Ukraine during fall 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War. While capturing about 2,356 square kilometers of territory across Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, Russia reportedly lost around 125,800 personnel between September and November. November saw record-high Russian casualties, averaging 1,523 per day, with over 2,000 troops lost on November 28 alone. The independent Russian outlet Meduza reports that Russia’s current recruitment rate of 500-600 contract soldiers daily isn’t enough to replace these battlefield losses.
Nearly 25% of the 2022 graduating class of military officers from the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School have been killed in Ukraine, according to Russian opposition outlet iStories. Of the total 294 officers who graduated between 2020 and 2024, approximately 10% have died in combat, highlighting Russia’s continuing loss of military leadership in the conflict.
Troops +1300
741910 |
Tanks
9514 |
Artillery +12
21055 |
Arm. VEH +17
19535 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian outlet Readovka reports that Moscow Oblast’s Sibiryachok drone facility plans to produce an upgraded version of its drone using entirely Russian-made components by March 2025.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com