Summary of the Day:
Russian forces made territorial gains along multiple axes today, advancing near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces managed to recapture some lost positions near Toretsk, demonstrating continued defensive capabilities despite Russian pressure.
Russia is attempting to reinforce its military capabilities through multiple channels. The Kremlin is expanding its reserves through Cossack Society organizations while preparing for new North Korean troop deployments to Kursk Oblast by mid-March 2025. However, current North Korean forces have proven ineffective, suffering heavy casualties and poor integration with Russian units, suggesting new deployments may face similar challenges. Russia is also deepening military cooperation with Uzbekistan.
The Kremlin launched an information campaign claiming economic strength despite clear indicators of macroeconomic distress. Russia’s military presence in Syria’s port of Tartus faces uncertainty amid suspended investments, while plans to resume gas deliveries to Transnistria signal continued attempts to maintain regional influence.
Picture of the Day:
Wounded servicemen fighting with the 24th Mechanized Brigade wait for evacuation inside a medical vehicle, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Oleg Petrasiuk / 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian military bloggers are expressing concern over reports that the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government in Syria has suspended Russian investment in the port of Tartus, raising questions about Russia’s future military presence in Syria. While Russian cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II are currently docked at Tartus, likely evacuating military equipment, negotiations between Russia and the HTS-led government regarding Russia’s continued presence at the Tartus and Khmeimim military bases remain unresolved. Syrian Interim Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra confirmed that no final agreement has been reached. This uncertainty about Russia’s military bases in Syria could impact regional stability and Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, particularly as Russia remains heavily engaged in Ukraine.
Russia may resume direct gas deliveries to Transnistria through the TurkStream pipeline, according to Russian media outlet Kommersant. The plan involves using Cyprus-based Obzor Enterprises as an intermediary to deliver 3.1 million cubic meters of gas daily from February 1 to March 1, with possible extension through mid-April, at a cost of $160 million. This contradicts recent discussions about sourcing non-Russian gas for the region. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has emphasized that only Moldovagaz can legally deliver gas to Transnistria, and only through companies that don’t violate sanctions. Ukrainian and Moldovan officials suggest Russia is using this gas crisis to influence Moldovan public opinion ahead of the Summer 2025 parliamentary elections, potentially impacting regional stability and Moldova’s political sovereignty.
Russia and Uzbekistan strengthened military ties with new agreements through 2030, potentially shifting the balance of power in Central Asia. The partnership between Russian Defense Minister Belousov and Uzbekistan’s defense leadership signals growing Russian military influence in the region, which could impact regional stability and international relations.
European Union leaders are warning of a growing Russian military threat within the next 3-5 years. EU diplomat Kaja Kallas highlighted that Russia now allocates over one-third of its national budget to military spending – triple pre-Ukraine invasion levels. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned Russia could be capable of attacking NATO territory by 2029-2030. Russia’s military production now exceeds the EU’s annual output in just months, while the EU expects to produce only two million artillery shells in 2025. To counter this threat, EU leaders are calling for increased defense spending from the current 1.9% of GDP average to match Russia’s 9%, along with deeper military cooperation among member states. The EU is drafting a Preparedness Strategy focusing on integrating 27 national armies without creating a single European force. This growing military imbalance poses a significant risk to European security and global stability, with Ukraine serving as Europe’s front line of defense against potential Russian expansion.
The Path to Peace
President Trump has appointed retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as special envoy to Ukraine with a 100-day deadline to end the conflict, proposing a peace plan that would freeze front lines in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia while offering Russia partial sanctions relief for negotiations; however, Russia has rejected the plan as a “non-starter,” demanding Ukraine permanently abandon NATO membership and accept Russian control of occupied territories, leading analysts to doubt Kellogg’s chances of success given his lack of diplomatic experience and the stark differences between both sides’ positions.
U.S. President Trump called for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, warning of increased sanctions and tariffs if no deal is reached. Trump’s administration is considering two approaches: offering relief to sanctioned Russian oil producers if peace talks advance or expanding sanctions to pressure Moscow. While claiming a good relationship with Putin, Trump emphasized the need to stop further loss of life. His administration plans include meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and consulting with Putin.
Marco Rubio, newly confirmed as U.S. Secretary of State on January 20, emphasized seeking a “sustainable” end to the Ukraine war that prevents future conflicts. Rubio, a 53-year-old former Florida senator and the first Latino Secretary of State, previously voted against a $61 billion Ukraine aid package in early 2024. While supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, he views negotiation as necessary to end what he calls a “stalemate war.” Reports suggest Trump’s administration may pursue a peace plan involving autonomous regions along demilitarized zones and keeping Ukraine outside NATO, though Ukrainian President Zelensky opposes any ceasefire that would cement Russian territorial gains. As Secretary of State, Rubio will be central to potential peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Ukrainian President Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, called for at least 200,000 European peacekeepers to be deployed in Ukraine post-war to prevent future Russian attacks. Zelensky rejected potential Russian demands to reduce Ukraine’s 800,000-strong army, stating this was Putin’s aim and would not be allowed. He also mentioned plans to meet with the newly elected US President.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Christopher Cavoli stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Russia lacks forces for a major breakthrough in Ukraine, despite recent advances near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk. While Ukraine faces manpower shortages, Russia has had to supplement its forces with 12,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast. Although newly inaugurated U.S. President Trump has suggested reducing military aid to Ukraine, reports indicate he plans to maintain some support while pushing Europe to take greater responsibility for Ukraine’s security.
According to a phone call intercepted by Ukrainian Military Intelligence, a Russian soldier warned fellow troops they would be forced into dangerous “meat” assaults as punishment for attempted desertion. The intercepted conversation included threats of beating and being sent on assault missions. While Russia claims such intercepted calls are fake, Ukrainian intelligence personnel maintain their authenticity.
Ukrainian drone operators released footage showing their FPV drone striking a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system in what appears to be western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast without confirmed advances. They reportedly reached Guyevo’s outskirts and launched attacks near Pogrebki, Makhnovka, and Kurilovka. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Makhnovka and Kruglenkoye. Chechen forces are conducting reconnaissance near the Sumy Oblast border, while Russian airborne units are operating thermobaric artillery in the region.
Ukrainian special forces engaged in an eight-hour battle with North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The 8th Regiment of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces reported killing 21 and wounding 40 North Korean soldiers before retreating due to low ammunition. This confrontation is part of Russia’s effort to push Ukrainian forces out of western Russia, where North Korea has deployed approximately 12,000 troops in Kursk Oblast. According to President Zelensky, North Korean forces have suffered 4,000 casualties since their deployment began. Russia reportedly pays over $2,000 per North Korean soldier, though the distribution between individual soldiers and the North Korean government remains unclear.
Ukraine’s GUR reported their FPV drones successfully struck Russian satellite communications equipment near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast on January 17. The equipment supported Russia’s Yamal-401, 402, and 300K communications satellites.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, without advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces claimed to capture Zapadne near Kupyansk, though this remains unconfirmed. They attacked north of Kupyansk near Dvorichna and Kutkivka, and east near Petropavlivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Vilshana. Russian troops attempted night crossings of the Oskil River near Dvorichna using small boats, while Ukrainian drones targeted these crossings. Russian commanders are reportedly forcing infantry attacks despite poor weather limiting drone and vehicle support. Russian forces used armored vehicles in assaults near Petropavlivka and Lozova, with Russian Rubicon drone operators active in the area.
Borova
Russian forces claimed advances near Lozova (southwest) and Nadiya (west) in the Borova direction, though unconfirmed. They continued attacks northeast of Borova near Lozova, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove; east near Kopanky; and southeast near Novoyehorivka and Novoserhiivka.
Lyman
Russian forces claimed advances near Terny, Ivanivka, and Kolodyazi in the Lyman direction, though unconfirmed. They continued attacks north of Lyman near Zelena Dolyna; northeast near Kuzmyne, Terny, and Kolodyazi; and east near the Serebryanske forest.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Ivano-Darivka, southeast of Siversk, without advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces advanced in Chasiv Yar with confirmed movement along Zaliznychna Street in the northwest and near the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant in the central area. Russian forces also conducted attacks north of Chasiv Yar toward Fedorivka. Russian snipers are operating in the area, targeting Ukrainian positions.
Toretsk
In Toretsk, Ukrainian forces regained positions in western Shcherbynivka, while Russian forces advanced along Kachalova and Puzanova streets in northern Toretsk. A Ukrainian battalion commander confirmed they are defending limited positions in Toretsk while working to contain Russian forces. Active ground combat continues within Toretsk.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk with confirmed movement northeast of Kotlyne and within the settlement. Russian forces deployed fresh reserves focusing on encircling Pokrovsk from the southwest. Combat operations continue across multiple areas: east of Pokrovsk (near Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, and Myrnohrad), southeast (near Lysivka), south (near Novyi Trud, Zvirove, and Petropavlivka), and southwest (near Novoserhiivka, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, and Sribne). Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking near Udachne, though Russian advances in the region have slowed in recent weeks.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces advanced west of Kurakhove with confirmed movement south of Dachne. While Russian forces claim advances near Slovyanka and Kostiantynopil, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces have struggled to advance toward Andriivka since January 12. Active combat continues northwest of Kurakhove (near Slovyanka and Shevchenko), west (near Dachne, Andriivka, and Kostiantynopil), and southwest (near Ulakly and Yantarne). Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks near Andriivka and Zelenivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced near Velyka Novosilka with confirmed movement west of Rozdolne and along Horizhnia Street in the northeast. Russian forces claim to have partially encircled Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka from three directions (north, east, and south), while combat continues near Vremivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kamyanske, northwest of Robotyne, with no reported advances. Russian drone operators are active in the Zaporizhia area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks in the Dnipro area without advances. A Russian military blogger reported increased Ukrainian drone and HIMARS strikes in occupied Kherson Oblast’s rear areas.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major drone attack on Ukraine deploying 99 Shahed and other drones from multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces shot down 65 drones across ten oblasts, while 30 were disabled by electronic warfare. The strikes damaged buildings in several regions, including residential homes in Mykolaiv and Sumy oblasts, along with industrial and administrative facilities in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s NATO membership hinges primarily on U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance. He identified four key opposing nations: Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the United States, with others like Belgium, Slovenia, and Spain also showing resistance. A Wall Street Journal report indicated Trump’s team was considering a 20-year delay on Ukraine’s NATO membership in exchange for Western arms and European peacekeepers, though Russia has rejected this proposal. Despite Ukraine’s 2022 application and NATO’s 2024 affirmation of Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to membership, no formal invitation has been extended as of 2025.
Ukrainian President Zelensky met with international business leaders to discuss Ukraine’s investment potential. He highlighted Ukraine’s growing defense sector, including drone production, and the country’s significant resources, including $26 trillion in mineral wealth and one-third of Europe’s lithium reserves. Economy Minister Svyrydenko noted that foreign investors seek security guarantees, as Ukraine’s defense industry has grown sixfold in the past year. The country is exploring partnerships with the Trump administration, particularly in rare earth minerals processing and extraction.
President Zelensky revealed at the World Economic Forum in Davos that U.S. and European intelligence agencies have maintained contact with Russia throughout the ongoing war. While official diplomatic relations were largely cut after Russia’s 2022 invasion, intelligence channels remained open.
President Zelensky revealed at the World Economic Forum that during the early days of Russia’s invasion, he received an ultimatum through Ukrainian intermediaries demanding his replacement with pro-Kremlin oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk. The ultimatum included demands for Ukraine to recognize Russian control in Donbas, reduce its military to 50,000 troops, accept neutrality in its constitution, and make Russian an official language. Similar terms appeared in failed 2022 peace talks in Turkey. Medvedchuk, who has close ties to Putin, was later detained by Ukraine and exchanged with Russia. The topic has resurfaced as Trump seeks to initiate new peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
A recent survey by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Razumkov Center found that 21% of Ukrainians would emigrate if travel restrictions were lifted, with higher percentages among men (25%) and young people (33%). Key reasons included lack of development opportunities, safety concerns, and insufficient social support. Currently, 4.2 million Ukrainian refugees live in the EU, primarily in Germany and Poland. The potential exodus could worsen Ukraine’s demographic crisis, with UN projections suggesting the population could decrease from 37.4 million in 2024 to 15.3 million by 2100. The survey polled 1,518 respondents in Ukrainian-controlled territories between November and December 2024.
The SBU arrested a prominent Dnipro lawyer accused of helping Russia coordinate a December 29, 2023, missile strike that killed six people and injured 30. The suspect allegedly provided coordinates for strategic targets and reported strike damage while working with FSB officers and Russian occupation authorities in Crimea. He was caught trying to flee to Poland and faces life imprisonment on treason charges. The attack damaged multiple buildings in Dnipro, including a maternity hospital and shopping center. Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, serves as a crucial logistics and medical hub for the war effort.
Three Ukrainian military officers – General Yurii Halushkin, General Artur Horbenko, and Colonel Illia Lapin – were arrested for allegedly failing to properly defend Kharkiv Oblast during Russia’s May 2024 offensive. The Security Service of Ukraine accused them of inadequate defense planning and misuse of resources, which allowed Russian forces to advance 25 kilometers into the region before being stopped. Halushkin commanded the Kharkiv Operational-Tactical Group, while Horbenko and Lapin led the 125th Territorial Defense Brigade and its 415th Battalion respectively. They face up to 10 years imprisonment for negligence and unauthorized withdrawal. This case highlights ongoing concerns about military mismanagement in Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
The former commander of Ukraine’s 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade has been detained with bail set at Hr 90 million ($2.1 million) following an investigation into leadership failures near Pokrovsk. Despite French support including training and military equipment like AMX-10 vehicles and Caesar howitzers, the 5,800-strong brigade faced severe problems. Over 1,700 soldiers deserted between March and November 2024, with an additional 50 deserting during training in France. The commander, who faces up to 10 years in prison, is accused of failing to address widespread unauthorized absences and unit mismanagement. Most soldiers sent for French training lacked significant military experience, with only 51 out of 1,924 having served more than a year.
DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, announced a 450 million euro ($468 million) investment to expand the Tyligulska Wind Power Plant in Mykolaiv Oblast. The project will add 64 wind turbines from Danish manufacturer Vestas, increasing capacity from 114 MW to 500 MW. Expected completion is late 2026, with potential to power 900,000 homes. Denmark’s EIFO will guarantee 370 million euros in loans, marking the largest private investment in Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The investment comes after DTEK lost nearly 90% of its generation capacity in 2024 due to Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 29
Russian attacks on the Synelnykove district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injured three people and damaged approximately 70 houses.
Russian strikes in Donetsk Oblast killed one civilian and injured another in Pokrovsk, with two additional people injured in Bilytske.
Ten people were injured in Kharkiv Oblast in various Russian attacks. In Kupiansk, a drone attack wounded three police officers and two civilians. Additional Russian strikes injured an 87-year-old woman in Bilyi Kolodiaz village, three women in Kupiansk, and a 62-year-old woman in Borshchivka village.
Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast killed one civilian and injured 11 others, while damaging two high-rise buildings and seven houses.
A Russian drone strike on Mykolaiv injured two people – a 74-year-old woman who is in serious condition and a 59-year-old man – while damaging a six-story residential building.
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Vadym Filashkin/Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Union will provide Ukraine with 35 billion euros in financial support for 2025 through two programs: the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) credit initiative and the Ukraine Facility program.
Russia News
The Kremlin is attempting to portray Russia’s economy as strong despite significant economic challenges. President Putin claimed 2024 was a “strong year” with a 1.7% budget deficit and increased non-oil-and-gas revenue of 25.6 trillion rubles. However, this portrayal ignores major economic problems including unsustainable defense spending, high inflation, and a declining sovereign wealth fund. Russia faces serious issues including labor shortages, demographic challenges, declining savings, and increasing reliance on bailouts. The Kremlin’s positive economic messaging appears to be aimed at reassuring Russian citizens and projecting strength internationally while hiding the true economic impact of its war in Ukraine.
A Russian assault company commander from the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade was arrested in Luhansk Oblast for serious misconduct, including embezzlement and operating a private prison to punish soldiers. This follows another recent incident where a military police officer was arrested for beating a contract soldier. A Russian military blogger noted these abuses are widespread, damaging both troop morale and recruitment efforts, and called for military officials to take decisive action against such commanders.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1340
825320 |
Tanks +6
9850 |
Artillery +62
22256 |
Arm. Veh. +12
20497 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is automating its military recruitment process. Moscow’s Military Recruitment Head Maxim Loktev announced that 17-year-old boys will receive automatic text messages about military service registration for 2025. This follows a 2023 law, implemented in Fall 2024, allowing electronic military summons, making it easier for Russia to track and contact potential recruits.
Russia is investing 11.4 million rubles ($114,880) to train 100 officers in the “Great Don Army” branch of the All-Russian Cossack Society. The funding, split between the Russian Presidential Grant Fund and the “Great Don Army” organization, will provide training in drone operation, tactical skills, medical care, and fire training. The program includes instruction on defense organization and working with political authorities during wartime. This initiative, following a March 2024 law integrating Cossack Society members into military reserves, appears to be Russia’s strategy to build a trained reserve force that could be mobilized for Ukraine or other conflicts while minimizing potential domestic backlash.
North Korea plans to deploy additional military personnel to Russia by mid-March 2025, according to a U.S. senior defense official cited by The New York Times. This deployment comes as current North Korean forces in Russia have suffered heavy casualties – approximately 1,000 killed and 3,000 wounded or missing out of their 11,000-12,000 personnel. At the current casualty rate, the entire North Korean contingent could be incapacitated by mid-April 2025. The new deployment, whether a rotation or reinforcement, appears aimed at maintaining Russia’s operations in Kursk Oblast despite monthly casualties of 30,000-45,000. Previous North Korean forces spent a month training in eastern Russia before deploying to Kursk Oblast in November 2024, suggesting new troops would need similar preparation time to replace forces by mid-April 2025.
New North Korean forces deploying to Russia are unlikely to significantly improve Russian operations due to ongoing challenges. U.S. officials and Ukrainian soldiers report continuing communication problems between Russian and North Korean forces, with at least two friendly-fire incidents. Despite having Russian-speaking translators, North Korean units remain ineffective. They continue to conduct mass infantry assaults with high casualties, as evidenced by a recent eight-hour battle where Ukrainian Special Operations Forces killed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers. Russian forces reportedly attempt to hide North Korean presence by targeting their wounded to prevent capture. These ongoing issues and high casualty rates will likely impact North Korea’s military learning from this conflict.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com