Summary of the Day:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to avoid genuine peace negotiations with Ukraine by demanding the repeal of Ukraine’s 2022 decree that banned talks with him. The decree was enacted after Putin illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions and demanded Ukraine’s complete capitulation during earlier negotiations. While Ukrainian President Zelensky remains open to conditional peace talks, Putin is attempting to bypass Ukraine by suggesting direct negotiations with Trump.
Meanwhile, Ukraine launched extensive drone strikes against Russian military infrastructure overnight, targeting the Ryazan Oil Refinery and the “Kremniy El” microelectronics plant in Bryansk City, which produces critical components for Russian weapons systems. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted 121 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions.
On the battlefield, Russian forces advanced near several settlements including Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, though Ukrainian forces managed to recapture some positions near Toretsk. In other developments, Putin expressed concern about Trump’s proposal to lower oil prices to weaken Russia’s war capabilities, while Russia announced plans for a new security agreement with Belarus in 2025, suggesting further steps toward annexation.
Picture of the Day:
A view of destruction aftermath of Russian drone attack, which resulted in the deaths of three people and caused significant damage in Kyiv Oblast. In the town of Brovary, debris damaged 11 apartments in a high-rise building. In Fastiv district, debris struck a 10-story residential building, igniting a fire that damaged the 6th and 7th floors. Emergency services evacuated 150 residents, rescuing two people, while a 36-year-old man’s body was found among the wreckage. (Kyiv Regional Military Administration / Handout / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia and Belarus will implement a new Union State Security Concept in 2025, replacing the 1999 agreement. This “completely new strategic planning document” builds on both countries’ constitutions and security strategies. The timing of this announcement, just before Belarus’s January 26 presidential election, suggests Russia is further advancing its efforts to effectively annex Belarus through the Union State framework. This development could increase regional tensions and potentially destabilize peace in Eastern Europe as Russia expands its influence over Belarus, a development that mirrors previous territorial expansions that led to conflict.
Former President Trump claims Russia stole U.S. hypersonic missile designs during the Obama administration, though he provided no evidence. Russia, which denies these claims, has deployed its Zircon hypersonic missile against Ukraine since February 2024. The Zircon, reportedly the fastest among hypersonic missiles developed by the U.S., China, India, and Russia, can travel at Mach 9 with a range of 600-1,500 kilometers.
Mass protests erupted across 20+ Slovak cities against Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government, with organizers claiming 60,000 demonstrators in Bratislava alone. Protesters opposed Fico’s pro-Russian stance and criticism of Western support for Ukraine. The demonstrations, organized by “Peace to Ukraine” initiative and opposition parties, came after Fico accused opposition leader Michal Simecka of plotting a coup following Simecka’s supportive visit to Kyiv. This political tension in Slovakia reflects broader European divisions over Ukraine support, potentially impacting regional stability and NATO unity.
The Path to Peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed readiness to negotiate on Ukraine while demanding Ukraine first repeal its 2022 decree prohibiting negotiations with him. The decree was enacted after Putin illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts – and following failed peace talks where Russia demanded Ukraine’s complete military weakening.
While Ukrainian President Zelensky has shown willingness to negotiate and proposed peace initiatives, Putin continues to avoid meaningful dialogue. Instead, he suggests bypassing Ukraine entirely, proposing direct negotiations with the U.S. and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy. Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief Andriy Yermak noted that Putin aims to negotiate “the fate of Europe without Europe” and “Ukraine without Ukraine.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized on January 23 that NATO allies must increase military aid to Ukraine so it can negotiate with Russia from a stronger position and deter future Russian aggression. He noted that European NATO members should take on more financial responsibility for Ukraine’s defense due to their geographic proximity, including funding U.S. military assistance.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated that blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership is crucial for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Speaking on Russian state TV, he called for guarantees preventing Ukraine’s NATO entry and demanded the alliance reverse its 2008 Bucharest Summit decision that Ukraine would eventually join NATO. While Ukraine submitted its NATO application in 2022, several members including the U.S., Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia currently oppose its membership. President Zelensky believes Trump could potentially influence NATO members on this issue, though Trump has previously criticized Biden’s support for Ukraine’s NATO aspirations.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry forcefully rejected Russia’s demand to reverse NATO’s 2008 membership promise. Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi dismissed Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko’s criticism, stating “Moscow has no say here” and emphasizing that European security is based on protection from Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu claimed Western military aid to Ukraine has failed to impact the war despite significant financial costs. However, this claim contradicts battlefield evidence. Western assistance has enabled key Ukrainian victories, including the liberation of Kherson Oblast’s west bank using US-provided HIMARS in late 2022, and the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive using Western armored vehicles. Additionally, US-provided ATACMS and UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles have limited Russia’s ability to launch operations from its territory against northern Ukraine, while various Western weapons have helped Ukraine maintain its defense and develop its own defense industrial capabilities.
Russian milbloggers are reporting that commanders are forcing wounded soldiers to participate in combat assaults instead of providing medical care. A former Storm-Z instructor shared footage of injured troops from the 20th Combined Arms Army attacking near Serebryanske forest. Similar reports emerged about wounded soldiers from the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade and 109th Rifle Regiment conducting attacks near Toretsk. The practice appears widespread, despite some attempts to deny these reports.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances near Sudzha in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, reaching the northern outskirts of Sverdlikovo and parts of southern Makhnovka. Claims of Russian control over Maryevka and advances near Malaya Loknya, Nikolskiy, Viktorovka, and Kurilovka remain unconfirmed. Russian forces aim to control Ukrainian supply lines in the region, while Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks throughout the Kursk Oblast salient.
Ukraine conducted extensive drone strikes against Russian military-industrial targets. Ukrainian forces hit the Ryazan Oil Refinery and oil pump station, which produce fuel for military equipment. The strikes also damaged the “Kremniy El” microelectronics plant in Bryansk City, which manufactures components for Russian missile systems, air defense systems, and combat aircraft electronics. The plant suspended operations following the attack. Additionally, Ukrainian drones reportedly damaged the 711th Aircraft Repair Plant in Borisoglebsk, Voronezh Oblast.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Kharkiv City targeting Lyptsi and Vovchansk without success. A Ukrainian brigade repelled a major Russian assault involving over 30 armored vehicles, including modernized T-80 tanks. The Russian forces had reportedly spent a month preparing for this operation, choosing to use newer equipment rather than older T-62 tanks.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces launched operations near Kupyansk without confirmed advances, despite claims of progress near Dvorichna, Zapadne, and Topoli. Russian attacks continued along multiple points of the Russia-Ukraine border, including Topoli, Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Hlushkivka. Reports indicate Russian forces used a fiber optic cable drone to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Kupyansk.
Borova
Russian forces launched operations near Borova without confirmed advances, despite claims of progress near Zahryzove and Makiivka. Ground attacks occurred near multiple settlements including Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanky, and Novoyehorivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Zahryzove.
Lyman
Russian forces attacked near Lyman without confirmed advances, despite claims of progress west of Ivanivka. Ground attacks continued near Yampolivka and Torske. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces are conducting small-team infantry attacks of up to four soldiers, resulting in significant Russian casualties in the area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near Siversk targeting Bilohorivka (northeast) and Ivano-Darivka (southeast). Ukrainian forces reported Russian assaults involving armored vehicles at Ivano-Darivka and a separate motorized attack using 40 motorcycles and civilian vehicles in the Siversk area. No Russian advances were confirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made confirmed advances south of Chasiv Yar with geolocated footage verifying the progress. While Russian sources claimed reaching Chasiv Yar’s western outskirts, this remains unverified. Fighting continued at multiple locations: Chasiv Yar itself, Vasyukivka and Novomarkove (northeast), and Bila Hora (south). Ukrainian forces reported repelling a Russian mechanized assault, destroying four armored vehicles. Russian forces are utilizing motorcycles for troop transport.
Toretsk
In the Toretsk direction, both sides made recent advances. Geolocated footage from January 21 showed Ukrainian forces recaptured positions in western Shcherbynivka, while earlier footage (January 8-17) confirmed Russian advances in southern Toretsk. Fighting continued within Toretsk, including near the Toretska Mine, and in surrounding areas: Krymske and Dyliivka (north), and Leonidivka and Shcherbynivka (west). Russian claims of additional advances in southern Toretsk remain unconfirmed.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces captured Kotlyne (west of Pokrovsk) as confirmed by January 23 footage. While Russia claimed to have recently taken Timofiivka (east of Pokrovsk), this was actually captured by January 5. Russian forces launched attacks across multiple areas: near Pokrovsk itself, Vodyane Druhe (northeast), several settlements to the east including Baranivka and Promin, and multiple locations to the south and southwest. Russian forces are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk from north and south, using missiles, long-range weapons, and drones. Multiple Russian claims of additional advances near various settlements remain unconfirmed, and Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Udachne and Kotlyne.
Russian forces are attempting but failing to encircle Pokrovsk. While Russian forces attack the town with missiles and drones, their attempts to outflank it from north and south have been repelled.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces advanced southeast of Rozlyv (southwest of Kurakhove), confirmed by geolocated footage. Fighting occurred northwest of Kurakhove near Slovyanka; west near Dachne, Kostiantynopil, Ulakly, and Andriivka; and southwest near Zelenivka and Yantarne. Ukrainian forces reported repelling a Russian armored attack near Zelenivka. While Russian sources claimed advances in eastern Andriivka, Dachne, and other areas around Petropavlivka and Shevchenko, these claims remain unverified. Reports indicate intensified Russian assaults near Dachne and Andriivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces made confirmed advances in Velyka Novosilka’s eastern and central sections along Fontanna and Yuriia Haharina streets. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claims to have split the town and surrounded Ukrainian forces in the southern section, using artillery and drones for support. Russian forces are reportedly conducting small-squad assaults (about 10 personnel) within Velyka Novosilka and near Novodarivka. Claims of Russian advances north of Rozdolne and southwest of Novyi Komar remain unverified.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Robotyne, targeting Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka. Ukraine’s military intelligence reported destroying a Russian radar station in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Dnipro River and its delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched 58 Shahed drones and decoys from multiple regions. Ukrainian forces shot down 25 drones across seven oblasts and disrupted 27 decoy drones through electronic warfare. The attacks damaged buildings and killed civilians in Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts. Additional drone strikes hit Kharkiv City and caused damage in Fastivskyi Raion, Brovary, and Pidbirtsi.
A Ukrainian court in Dnipro dismissed desertion charges against 24-year-old soldier Sergiy Hnezdilov, who left his unit in September protesting indefinite service terms. Hnezdilov, who joined in 2019 on a three-year contract, had his service extended indefinitely under martial law like many others. He will return to his former unit.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 5 INJURIES: 0
Three people died in the Kyiv region attacks: a man in Glevakha and two people in Brovary. The strikes damaged residential buildings, causing fires and evacuations in Glevakha’s 10-story building.
In Lviv region, drone debris created a 4-meter crater in Pidbirtsi village, damaging a house and car but causing no casualties.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is reforming its military recruitment system to attract volunteers aged 18-25, who are currently exempt from mandatory service. While U.S. lawmakers push for lowering the draft age, President Zelensky opposes drafting 18-year-olds.
Ukraine’s Allies
Friedrich Merz, leading candidate for German chancellor in the February 23 election, declared Ukraine must win the war against Russia, restore its territorial integrity, and maintain freedom to choose its alliances. While Germany remains Ukraine’s second-largest aid provider, support has become contentious, with far-right and hard-left parties opposing assistance and tensions within the current coalition government. Merz criticized Chancellor Scholz’s government for creating confusion through internal disagreements and pledged more unified leadership. He expressed cautious optimism about the Trump administration’s stance on Russia, citing Trump’s recent threats of new sanctions against Moscow.
The British Ministry of Defense awarded a £61 million ($75 million) contract to BAE Systems and Sheffield Forgemasters to produce artillery barrels in Yorkshire for Ukraine. The contract includes manufacturing barrels for AS 90 155mm self-propelled guns and L119 105mm towed howitzers. This marks Britain’s first howitzer barrel production since the Cold War, driven by heavy artillery use in Ukraine requiring barrel replacements every 1,500-2,000 rounds. Additionally, the UK will supply Ukraine with its Gravehawk air defense system through the International Fund for Ukraine.
Secretary of State Rubio issued an immediate 90-day halt on most foreign aid grants, including military assistance to Ukraine. While the directive exempts military financing for Egypt and Israel and emergency food aid, it affects key allies like Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. This broader interpretation of Trump’s executive order on foreign aid review has surprised State Department officials. The halt could expose the U.S. to contract violation lawsuits and impacts global security, particularly regarding Ukraine’s defense against Russia.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed concern about Trump’s recent call to OPEC to lower oil prices to weaken Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. Putin claimed that both the U.S. and Russia need stable oil prices for their economies and energy investments, attempting to equate Russia’s oil-dependent economy with America’s more diverse economic structure. This response reveals Putin’s worry that lower oil prices could destabilize his regime by reducing federal revenues and his ability to maintain support from energy sector elites in his inner circle.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1650
828470 |
Tanks +7
9859 |
Artillery +14
22309 |
Arm. Veh. +37
20545 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia’s Allies
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is threatening to block EU sanctions renewal on Russia unless Ukraine reopens a gas pipeline to Central Europe. Ukraine let the gas transit agreement with Russia expire on January 1 to reduce Moscow’s war funding. While Hungary wasn’t significantly affected, Orban claims the sanctions cost his country billions and demands EU leaders pressure Ukraine to restore gas flow. The EU needs unanimous approval from its 27 members to extend sanctions.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com