Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces launched a significant offensive in Kursk Oblast advancing up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha and capturing several settlements including Kolmakov and Fanaseyevka. The operation marks six months of Ukrainian presence in the region, with special operations forces revealing they had infiltrated the area as early as June 2024 to prepare for the August incursion.
The ongoing operation has successfully tied down approximately 78,000 Russian troops in Kursk Oblast, including 11,000 North Korean soldiers and elite Russian units. President Putin acknowledged the deployment of several elite formations to the region preventing their use in other critical areas of the front.
In other developments, Ukrainian forces conducted a strategic drone strike on Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk Air Base in Krasnodar Krai, disrupting a facility used for launching Shahed drones against Ukraine. Western support for Ukraine continued with France delivering its first batch of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and the Netherlands providing F-16s.
Military analysts are expressing concern over North Korea’s growing role in the conflict, as North Korean missiles fired by Russian forces since December 2024 have shown dramatically improved accuracy, striking within 50-100 meters of targets compared to previous 1–3-kilometer ranges. This development suggests North Korea is using the conflict to refine its missile technology, with potential implications for global security.
Despite mounting challenges and casualties, a Russian state poll indicates 67 percent public support for the war, though these results likely inflate actual sentiment. Meanwhile, Putin has appointed Dmitry Bakanov to head the state space agency Roscosmos, replacing Yuri Borisov amid reported dissatisfaction with the agency’s military communications development.
Picture of the Day:
Servicemembers of the 3rd Separate Tank Brigade of Ukraine’s Land Forces camouflage a tank in Kharkiv Oblast. (Viacheslav Madiievskyi/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
North Korean missiles fired by Russian forces in Ukraine have demonstrated significant technological advancement, with accuracy improving from previous 1–3-kilometer ranges to striking within 50-100 meters of targets since December 2023. This improvement stems from North Korea’s alliance with Russia and their mutual defense pact signed between Putin and Kim Jong Un in June, under which North Korea has provided Russia with over 5 million artillery shells and at least 100 short-range ballistic missiles. With Russia having launched over 20 North Korean missiles, the collaboration enables North Korea to test and refine its military capabilities in real combat conditions, raising significant concerns for global security, particularly given North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. This military technology transfer could have broader implications as other Russian allies like Iran could potentially improve their own weapons systems using lessons learned from Ukraine, affecting regional stability beyond the current conflict.
In a significant shift affecting European energy dynamics, Slovakia announced it is now receiving Russian gas through Turkey after Ukraine halted transit through its territory in early 2025. Ukraine’s President Zelensky stopped the western gas flow to prevent Russia from generating war revenue. Slovakia’s state gas company SPP confirmed that Gazprom has partially renewed supplies via the TurkStream pipeline, which runs under the Black Sea to Turkey and then through the Balkans to Hungary and Slovakia. This development has political implications, as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, one of the few pro-Kremlin leaders in the EU, faced domestic protests after negotiating directly with Putin for gas supplies. This rerouting of gas highlights the ongoing tension between economic dependencies and efforts to reduce Russian war funding capabilities.
The Path to Peace
U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg has clarified that while President Donald Trump has a plan for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, it will not be presented at the upcoming February 14-16 Munich Security Conference, where Kellogg instead plans to discuss the situation with European leaders and bring their input back to Trump. However, President Zelensky has stated that Trump has no official plan to end the war, despite reports suggesting Trump’s team is considering delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years in exchange for Western arms and European peacekeepers. While Kellogg previously indicated a goal of reaching a resolution within 100 days of inauguration and is expected to visit Ukraine later this month for talks with Ukrainian officials, no concrete timeline has been provided. Zelensky has rejected any deals involving territorial concessions to Russia, which currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine’s territory since its invasions in 2014 and 2022.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian military bloggers reported a significant disruption to Starlink satellite communications along the front lines starting February 4, 2025, claiming approximately 10% of terminals used by Russian forces were blocked. Pro-Kremlin war journalists Roman Saponkov and Tatyana Kruglova both reported the outages, though neither provided evidence or specified which areas were affected. While Starlink exports to Russia are banned, some units have been smuggled into Russian-controlled areas. The Pentagon is reportedly working with SpaceX to prevent Russian forces from accessing the service, which remains crucial for Ukrainian military communications.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces launched a new offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, conducting a significant mechanized assault that advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines near Sudzha. The operation targeted settlements including Fanaseyevka and Ulanok, with Ukrainian forces capturing Kolmakov, Fanaseyevka, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and making advances near Makhnovka along the Sudzha-Oboyan highway. While reports of Ukrainian control over Ulanok remain unconfirmed, the assault involved approximately 500 personnel and 30-50 armored vehicles. Additional attacks were reportedly launched near Kruglenkoye northwest of Sudzha during poor weather that hampered Russian drone operations, with Russian military bloggers expressing concern that these advances could threaten Russian forces attacking Guyevo and affect supply lines within the Ukrainian salient.
This latest action is part of a broader campaign that began in August 2024, when Ukraine initially captured about 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory, though they currently control only 442 square kilometers. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces revealed that small units had infiltrated Kursk Oblast as early as June 2024, two months before the main incursion, conducting reconnaissance and targeted strikes against Russian air defense and ammunition depots. President Zelensky, while awarding honors to personnel involved, stated that the operation prevented a planned Russian offensive against Sumy and Kharkiv cities, provided prisoners for exchange, and successfully diverted elite Russian units from other fronts.
The Ukrainian incursion has tied down approximately 78,000 Russian troops in Kursk Oblast, including 11,000-12,000 North Korean soldiers and Russia’s elite forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged elite Russian units defending the region but continues to prioritize advances in Donetsk Oblast over expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast despite domestic pressure. Over six months of fighting, Ukraine’s General Staff reports Russian forces have suffered nearly 40,000 casualties, including 16,000 killed and 909 captured. North Korean forces have experienced heavy losses as well, with South Korean intelligence reporting 300 killed and 2,700 wounded, including one brigade reportedly destroyed. Recent footage showed an eight-hour battle between Ukrainian Special Operations Forces and North Korean troops, resulting in 21 North Korean soldiers killed and 40 wounded before Ukrainian forces retreated.
The ongoing conflict has led to the displacement of about 150,000 people from the Kursk region. While South Korean sources claim North Korean forces haven’t engaged in combat since mid-January, Ukraine’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov indicates their presence continues, though in reduced numbers. President Zelensky suggests Ukraine’s presence in Kursk Oblast could be an important factor in future peace negotiations.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk Air Base in Krasnodar Krai that caused at least 11 explosions and fires at the facility. The airfield, located 142 miles from the front line, serves as a key storage, training, and maintenance hub for aircraft operating in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and is used by Russia to launch Shahed drones against Ukraine. This attack occurred following increased US military aircraft activity over the western Black Sea, including reconnaissance flights near Crimea, and came a day after a similar strike on a regional oil refinery as part of Ukraine’s escalating campaign to disrupt Russian military logistics and reduce Moscow’s war revenue.
Russia has significantly increased its Shahed drone production, manufacturing over 5,700 units in the first nine months of 2024 at its Yelabuga factory, with drones typically launched from Cape Chauda in Crimea, Yeisk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Kursk Oblast, occasionally violating the airspace of Romania, Latvia, and Poland. While Russian officials claimed their air defenses intercepted 28 drones overnight, including 13 over the Sea of Azov and six over land, Ukrainian sources reported a warehouse fire at the base as both sides continue almost nightly attacks on military and energy infrastructure.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kharkiv City focusing on areas along the international border near Kozacha Lopan and around Vovchansk, though no confirmed advances were made. Fighting was reported in Vovchansk and near Tykhe. Russian forces are reportedly gathering troops near northern Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City, possibly preparing for future attacks. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances south of Hlyboke (northeast of Kharkiv City), this has not been independently confirmed.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk capturing Fyholivka on the west bank of the Oskil River. Russian troops continued attacks near Petropavlivka and are reportedly attempting to establish a bridgehead across the Oskil River near Topoli. There are also reports of Russian forces trying to encircle Dvorichna, though a Ukrainian commander stated that significant Russian advances have been prevented in their area.
Borova
Russian forces continued attacks around Borova targeting multiple settlements including Pishchane, Zahryzove, Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Novoserhiivka, and Hrekivka. While a Russian military blogger claimed the capture of Zahryzove and advances near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reported destroying multiple Russian tanks and armored vehicles near Zahryzove and Kopanky.
Lyman
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman targeting areas near Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Novolyubivka, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, and Torske, though no confirmed advances were made. A Ukrainian battalion officer reported that Russian forces are heavily using drones in the area and receiving weekly reinforcements of 30-40 personnel, possibly indicating preparation for a larger offensive. The most intense fighting is occurring near Terny, Ivanovka, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Bottom of Form
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacking near Siversk and surrounding areas including Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Spirne, but made no advances. Ukrainian forces reported that Russians are using various vehicles including civilian ones and motorcycles to transport troops near Verkhnokamyanske.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces have made recent advances in Chasiv Yar, capturing the central Refractory Plant. Reports indicate Russian troops are concentrating forces in the northern part of the city, particularly in the Pivnichnyi Microraion area. Russian forces are increasingly using lightweight vehicles like four-wheelers after losing several armored vehicles to Ukrainian strikes in January. Fighting continues near Stupochky, with Russian forces reportedly preparing to attack along the T-05-04 highway.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Toretsk, including Toretsk city, Dyliivka to the north, and Shcherbynivka to the southwest. Despite these attacks, they made no advances. Fighting was reported near the waste heap west of the Toretska Mine in northern Toretsk.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Pokrovsk targeting numerous settlements including Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Pishchane, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Nadiivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Sribne, and Zaporizhzhia, with Ukraine reporting 24 recent assaults on the city where Russia is currently concentrating nearly half of its attacks. Despite these widespread attacks, Russian forces made no confirmed advances, and Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled Russian counterattacks near Pishchane and Nadiivka while continuing to hold Pokrovsk. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces suffered heavy casualties in the Pokrovsk direction during January 2025, with 7,000 killed and 15,000 wounded, notably exceeding the 6,000 Russian casualties from the decade-long Second Chechen War (1999-2009).
Andriivka
Both Ukrainian and Russian forces made advances near Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces advanced east of Zelenivka, while Russian forces captured Dachne and surrounding areas. Russian forces continued attacks near multiple settlements including Shevchenko, Andriivka, Kostiantynopil, and Ulakly. Russian attempts to reach the H-15 Kurakhove-Pokrovske highway and Bahatyr have been repelled by Ukrainian forces, though Russians claim to have seized a bridge over the Vovcha River near Andriivka.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka targeting Rozdolne to the northeast and Novopil to the west but made no advances. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted an unsuccessful counterattack near Novyi Komar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
No fighting was reported in the Polohy direction.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast amid ongoing positional fighting in the region. While Russian forces reportedly targeted Ukrainian Starlink terminals in the area, they made no territorial advances.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
No fighting was reported in the Kherson direction, though Russian “Habr” drone operators were reportedly conducting strikes on Ukrainian forces near Antonivka, just east of Kherson City.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major drone attack against Ukraine sending 77 Shahed drones and decoy drones from multiple Russian regions, along with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Rostov Oblast. Ukrainian forces intercepted 56 drones across ten provinces and disrupted 18 decoy drones through electronic warfare. Some drones got through, hitting a market and residential building in Kharkiv City, with additional strikes reported in Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk regions. A Russian missile also struck a residential building in Odesa.
Keith Kellogg, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, firmly rejected Ukraine’s potential return to nuclear power status following President Zelensky’s suggestion that the U.S. should provide alternative security guarantees, including nuclear weapons, if NATO membership remains blocked – a significant shift given Ukraine gave up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., U.K., and Russia. Additionally, Kellogg stated that Ukraine should prepare for elections despite wartime conditions, calling it a “sign of a healthy democracy” and drawing parallels to U.S. wartime elections in 1944, though he acknowledged this cannot happen immediately due to martial law restrictions. Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, countered that elections will only occur after Russia’s war ends, as President Zelensky’s term would have ended May 20, 2024, if not for martial law banning all elections, while Putin has attempted to use these delayed elections to question Zelensky’s legitimacy.
London will host the upcoming Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) summit on February 12, marking the first such meeting under new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and a shift from traditional U.S. leadership and Ramstein Air Base location. The group, comprising over 50 nations including all NATO members, will discuss priorities for supporting Ukraine’s defense efforts, with new U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attending but not leading the agenda as the Trump administration has frozen foreign aid and hasn’t announced new weapons support for Ukraine. A new NATO mission (NSATU) has been established in Wiesbaden, Germany, to coordinate weapons deliveries from participating countries, and this meeting will precede a NATO defense ministers’ gathering in Brussels on February 13.
The UK, currently the third-largest military donor to Ukraine after the US and Germany, recently committed $5.6 billion in military aid for 2025, including air defense systems, drones, and equipment support. According to the Kiel Institute, from January 2022 to October 2024, military aid contributions were: US ($62.3 billion), Germany ($11.4 billion), and UK ($10.4 billion), with the EU leading in humanitarian aid at $44.6 billion.
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Seoul, Dmytro Ponomarenko, announced that Ukraine is open to negotiating with South Korea regarding two captured North Korean soldiers found in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. President Zelensky confirmed the soldiers are receiving medical treatment for combat injuries. While Ukraine must repatriate the captured soldiers under Geneva Conventions if they choose to return home, Kyiv is willing to discuss transfer options to third countries if they refuse repatriation.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 24
Russian attacks in Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast killed one person and injured 18 others.
In Donetsk Oblast, four people were wounded in the settlements of Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Roza.
Two men – a 57-year-old volunteer and a 43-year-old resident – were injured during Russian attacks on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian shelling damaged at least 15 residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with no civilian casualties reported.
Photo of a Russian attack that damaged a residential building in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration / Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
France’s Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced the transfer of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine, marking Ukraine’s first acquisition of Mirage aircraft. Additionally, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov reported that the Netherlands has delivered U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. These transfers represent significant support from Western allies in bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.
Life in Ukrainian Occupied Russia
In a significant development, Ukraine has offered to establish a humanitarian corridor from Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have held territory since August 2023. More than 1,500 Russian civilians remain in these Ukrainian-controlled areas, leading to growing public concern in Russia. While Ukraine says it awaits an official Russian request to open the corridor, the Kremlin claims it’s working on the situation but won’t discuss it publicly. The area around Sudzha remains under Ukrainian control, marking the first time since World War II that a foreign army has held Russian territory. Russia reports repelling a new Ukrainian offensive near Sudzha, though these claims cannot be independently verified.
Russia News
A poll by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) indicates that 67 percent of Russians support the war in Ukraine, with 65 percent believing Russia is winning. However, the poll results likely inflate public support and come amid rising Russian casualties, military leadership issues, and economic strain. The survey of 1,600 Russians suggests the public wants a quick, favorable end to the war while being frustrated by setbacks like the Ukrainian Kursk incursion and slow territorial gains.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Deputy Transport Minister Dmitry Bakanov as the new head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos, replacing Yuri Borisov. While the Kremlin described this as routine rotation, Russian military bloggers suggested the change stemmed from dissatisfaction with Borisov’s leadership, particularly his failure to develop a military satellite communications system by 2026. Borisov, who previously served under former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, was one of the last remaining members of Shoigu’s network following widespread arrests at the Defense Ministry in Summer 2024. Bakanov, who previously led Russia’s Gonets satellite program, brings experience with civilian satellite communication systems like Starlink.
Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven have sold their combined 45% stake in Alfa-Bank and 42% share of its insurance division for 240 billion rubles ($2.5 billion) to avoid EU sanctions. The sale to business partner Andrei Kosogov, who isn’t under sanctions, was financed through state-owned Gazprombank. Though EU sanctions against the oligarchs were initially lifted in April 2024, they remained sanctioned for providing substantial revenue to Russia. The sale comes after revelations that Alfa Insurance had provided services to Russian military vehicles in Ukraine and to offices protecting Russian President Putin.
Russian singer-songwriter Vadim Stroykin died after falling from a 10th-floor window, the traditional way the Russian government assassinates their opposition, during a police raid of his St. Petersburg apartment. The raid was investigating his alleged donations to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Stroykin had previously criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Putin on social media. His death follows a pattern of mysterious falls among Putin critics, including ballet dancer Vladimir Shklyarov who died in November 2024. Russia now considers war criticism and donations to Ukrainian charities acts of treason under its criminal code.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1340
846650 |
Tanks +10
9975 |
Artillery +32
22785 |
Arm. Veh. +18
20755 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia plans to create a dedicated unmanned systems force of 210,000 personnel across 277 military units by 2030, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Drones have become increasingly crucial in the conflict, with Ukraine reporting that 66% of Russian equipment destroyed in January was due to drone attacks.
Russia is expanding benefits for its military personnel and their families. Officials proposed making it easier for relatives of Rosgvardia (National Guard) members to get service certificates that prove their family members served in Ukraine, which are needed to receive veteran benefits. The State Duma also advanced a bill to increase benefits for veterans who served in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic militias, including improved pension access for wounded veterans and families of deceased personnel.
Russian military bloggers reported that troops mobilized in Fall 2022 are experiencing low morale. One blogger suggested allowing temporary leave would help, claiming Russia has enough contract soldiers to release these mobilized troops but won’t until the war ends. Another blogger, a former Storm-Z instructor, countered that military commanders are deliberately using these mobilized soldiers in dangerous infantry attacks and pressuring them to sign military contracts to avoid paying injury and death benefits.
Russian opposition media outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that their analysis of military dog tags with the “AB” prefix indicates the Russian Ministry of Defense recruited approximately 30,000 prisoners from 108 penal colonies for “Storm-Z” units between February and August 2023.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com