Summary of the Day:
Tensions have escalated as Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast has led to a significant increase in Russian military presence, with troop numbers reportedly tripling. Amid these developments, Ukraine and Russia conducted their third prisoner exchange since the incursion began, suggesting a shift that might encourage further swaps.
Criticism is mounting against Russian military tactics, with allegations that they are degrading operational effectiveness by misusing specialized personnel in frontal assaults. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is intensifying global information operations aimed at election interference, while Georgia’s ruling party echoes Kremlin narratives to justify ongoing occupations.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces made progress in Glushkovsky Raion. Russian forces reclaimed areas near Korenevo and Sudzha and advanced near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.
Picture of the Day:
A woman stands in front of a destroyed house, in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The Kremlin is intensifying efforts to influence Western decisions on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons for strikes within Russia. This campaign follows Putin’s September 11 remarks framing the lifting of restrictions as a severe escalation. Russian officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and US Ambassador Anatoly Antonov, have issued warnings about potential deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory, with Antonov suggesting possible nuclear conflict implications. These statements are part of Russia’s strategy to pressure Western policy decisions, employing nuclear threats as a coercive tactic. This escalation in rhetoric contributes to heightened global tensions and complicates diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.
In response to ongoing Russian influence operations, the U.S. State Department has imposed new sanctions on individuals and entities linked to Russia Today (RT). These sanctions target RT’s involvement in information operations, efforts to influence political outcomes in various regions including Europe, Africa, and the Americas, covert influence activities, military procurement, and election interference. RT has reportedly developed a cyber operations wing aiding Russian intelligence and is involved in crowdfunding for Russian military equipment, attempting to evade scrutiny by placing small orders, including from China.
The State Department also highlighted RT’s efforts to manipulate the upcoming October 2024 presidential election in Moldova and to incite unrest in the region, with Russian state-owned bank Promsvyazbank allegedly funding pensions in Moldova’s Gagauzia region to sway votes toward pro-Kremlin candidates. These sanctions underscore the strategic use of media for Russian state objectives, further straining US-Russia relations and potentially escalating information warfare on a global scale.
Concurrently, political developments in Georgia are raising concerns about Russian influence in the region. During an election rally in Gori, adjacent to Russian-occupied South Ossetia, Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party and former Prime Minister, made controversial statements. He attributed the 2008 Russo-Georgian war and the ongoing occupation of Georgian territories to “external actors” and the previous pro-Western ruling party, the United National Movement (UNM), notably omitting any mention of Russian aggression. Ivanishvili proposed reconciliation with South Ossetia and positioned Georgian Dream as a peace-promoting party in contrast to the UNM, which he characterized as fostering instability. This stance mirrors broader Kremlin narratives that seek to justify Russian actions in former Soviet territories by blaming local pro-Western elements. Such rhetoric potentially weakens Georgia’s position against Russian influence and could lead to increased regional instability.
Adding to the complex geopolitical landscape, the Belarusian military has established a new rocket artillery unit, the 79th Rocket Artillery Battalion, as part of the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade in Osipovichi. According to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, this battalion will be equipped with four to six V-300BM “Polonez-M” multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). This military expansion in Belarus, a close Russian ally, could further shift the balance of power in Eastern Europe and increase tensions with neighboring NATO countries.
These developments collectively paint a picture of Russia’s multifaceted approach to exerting influence on the global stage. From direct military threats and nuclear rhetoric to sophisticated information warfare and political maneuvering in former Soviet states, Russia continues to challenge the existing international order. The combination of these strategies contributes to an increasingly tense global environment, complicating diplomatic efforts and potentially setting the stage for further confrontations between Russia and the West.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to disclose details of a July phone call with former U.S. President Donald Trump in an interview with CNN scheduled for September 15. According to Zelensky, Trump expressed strong support for Ukraine during their conversation, which took place amid the ongoing conflict in the country.
The revelation comes as Trump’s public statements have focused on swiftly ending the war, with suggestions of potential concessions to Russia. Trump has also been critical of U.S. financial assistance to Ukraine. Despite Trump’s claims that he could end the war within 24 hours, Zelensky remains doubtful, characterizing such statements as typical campaign rhetoric.
In a related development, Senator J.D. Vance, who is running alongside Trump, has proposed a peace plan that includes the establishment of a demilitarized zone.
As the U.S. presidential election draws near, Zelensky plans to present what he calls a “victory plan” to both President Biden and Vice President Harris. The Ukrainian leader emphasized his intention to maintain cooperation with any future U.S. administration.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
In a recent meeting in Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer decided to postpone a decision on whether Ukraine can use long-range missiles, such as the UK’s Storm Shadow, to target deeper inside Russia. This decision comes amid heightened threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning of direct conflict with NATO. The U.S. reaffirmed that its policy on not enabling Ukraine to launch attacks into Russia remains unchanged.
The discussion on this matter is set to continue at the UN General Assembly later this month, involving other NATO allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to urge Western support, likening the situation to Western assistance to Israel in missile defense. He is preparing to present a comprehensive plan to end the war at an upcoming meeting with Biden.
Despite expectations and prior media reports hinting at a potential easing of restrictions, the White House confirmed there was no change in policy regarding Ukraine’s use of such capabilities. Ukraine has sought approval to employ two specific missiles, the U.S.-supplied ATACMS and the U.K.-France-supplied Storm Shadow, for striking vital military targets within Russia to counter increasing aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities. Currently, these missiles are restricted to targeting only within Ukraine or Russian-occupied areas.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated on September 14 that allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike targets deep inside Russia is under “intense consultations” among allies. Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv, he emphasized that no decision has been made yet. President Zelensky, who will present a “victory plan” to Biden, has criticized the current restrictions on ATACMS, calling them ineffective due to limited quantity and usage constraints.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Germany will not permit Ukraine to use German weapons for attacks deep inside Russian territory, even if other countries change their stance. While there are signs that the U.S. and U.K. may reconsider their policies, Scholz remains firm in his position. Meanwhile, discussions continue within Germany about providing Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles, with some political support.
In other developments, Russian military tactics have come under scrutiny as some field commanders prioritize traditional infantry assaults over specialized roles, leading to detrimental outcomes for their forces. On September 13, two drone operators from the 87th Motorized Rifle Regiment were killed near Pokrovsk after being reassigned to frontline duties as punishment for criticizing their superiors. This incident highlights a broader issue within the 51st Combined Arms Army where specialists such as electronic warfare experts and snipers are reportedly often pushed into direct combat roles as a form of discipline.
The practice of deploying Russian military specialists in frontline assaults has been criticized for eroding the quality and effectiveness of the forces. This tactic has blurred the roles between elite units like Airborne and Naval Infantry and regular troops, diminishing overall combat capability. Contrarily, Ukrainian forces have shown a consistent ability to employ tactical and technical innovation, highlighting a stark difference in command strategy and execution between the two militaries.
Ukrainian strikes are reportedly impacting Russian naval operations, leading to strategic adjustments. According to military observer Kostyanyn Mashovets, the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) now restricts the launch of Kalibr cruise missiles to submarines, with launch capabilities set up near Myskhako, just southwest of Novorossiysk. This measure is likely taken to reduce the risk of Ukrainian naval drone strikes. Additionally, recent satellite imagery shared online shows the Russian Navy evacuating vessels from the Novorossiysk port, possibly relocating them to Gelendzhik, about 30 kilometers southeast.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
In a significant escalation of the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian and Russian forces have intensified their military operations in Kursk Oblast. The Russian military presence in the region has seen a dramatic increase since early August 2024, with initial forces of 11,000 personnel now estimated to be between 30,000 and 45,000. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested this number could potentially rise to 60,000-70,000 troops.
The surge in Russian military presence comes in response to recent Ukrainian advances in the region. Ukrainian forces have made progress in several areas including Glushkovsky, Korenevsky, Sudzhansky, Rylsky, Lgovsky, Kurchatovsky, and Kursky regions. This build-up is seen as part of a Russian strategy to strengthen their position in the oblast and possibly launch a counteroffensive to regain lost territories.
On September 14, Ukrainian forces continued their offensive in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast. They captured the settlement of Veseloye and made advances near Medvezhye and Tetkino along the border with Sumy Oblast. Geolocated footage from September 13 confirmed Ukrainian military activity south of Glushkovo. Russian military bloggers reported ongoing Ukrainian assaults in nearby locations, including Obukhovka and Novy Put.
The Ukrainian offensive expanded on September 14, with forces making progress north of Sudzha and capturing the settlement of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Simultaneously, they continued their attacks in areas surrounding Korenevo, engaging near Apanasovka to the southwest, Lyubimovka and Obukhovka to the southeast, and Maryevka to the east. Ukrainian troops also increased their operations southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka.
However, Russian forces have also made notable territorial gains within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage from September 13 showed a mechanized company of Russian troops entering western Lyubimovka and advancing to its southwestern outskirts, with further movements observed in fields northwest of nearby Darino. Additional footage from September 14 confirmed the presence of Russian forces in central Borki, southeast of Sudzha. Reports suggest that while Russian forces have taken control of parts of Borki, Ukrainian forces still maintain a presence in some areas of the settlement.
These developments mark a significant shift in the conflict dynamics in Kursk Oblast, with both sides making territorial gains and losses as the fighting intensifies. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation as both Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to maneuver and engage in the region.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive operations around Kharkiv City on September 14, focusing on areas to the north near Lyptsi and Hlyboke, and to the northeast near Vovchansk and Hatyshche. Despite these ongoing military activities, no confirmed changes to the frontline positions were reported. The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces reported that Russian forces near Hlyboke are facing desertions, which they attribute to insufficient supplies and high casualty rates among the troops.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
The conflict along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line continued on September 14, with no reported changes to the frontline. Russian military bloggers claimed advances near Pishchane and in the Serebryanske forest, though these assertions remain unverified due to lack of visual evidence.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in multiple areas over September 13 and 14. These actions targeted locations including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, Kopanky, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Terny, Zarichne, Yampolivka, Torske, and Serebryanka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the Siversk area on September 14, with no confirmed territorial gains. Russian military bloggers claimed advances in a forest northwest of Bilohorivka, near Siversk, asserting that Ukrainian forces were pushed across the Siverskyi-Donets River. However, these claims lack visual confirmation. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Russian presence on both sides of the river in forested areas near Bilohorivka. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian ground attacks occurred near Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Spirne, located east and southeast of Siversk, on September 13 and 14. The military situation in the region remains active as operations continue.
Chasiv Yar
Footage from September 14 depicts Russian forces making minor advances north of Chasiv Yar, progressing towards the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal south of Hryhorivka. Russian military bloggers have corroborated these claims. Some bloggers also reported that Russian troops crossed the canal near Klishchiivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar, which aligns with current front-line assessments. The Ukrainian General Staff, however, reported successful defense against Russian attacks in and southeast of Chasiv Yar, near Andriivka. The situation around Chasiv Yar continues to evolve as both sides engage in ongoing military operations.
Toretsk
Russian forces carried out offensive operations near Toretsk, Druzhba, and Nelipivka on September 13 and 14. Despite these efforts, no territorial gains were reported in these areas. The military situation in the region remains unchanged as combat operations continue.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued their offensive near Pokrovsk on September 14, making advances southeast of the city. Geolocated footage from September 13 shows Russian troops capturing a Ukrainian trench northwest of Ukrainsk, indicating a push west of the settlement.
The Russian strategy appears to involve encircling Ukrainsk by attacking its northern and southern flanks. Observers suggest they may be waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw before launching a direct assault.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Zhelanne Pershe, southeast of Pokrovsk, but no visual evidence has been provided to confirm this assertion. Russian operations also target bridges near Pokrovsk, likely in an attempt to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
Ukrainian forces reported Russian attacks in areas east and southeast of Pokrovsk, including Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, and Myrolyubivka. The situation remains fluid as both sides continue their military operations in the region.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances west of Donetsk City on September 14, but reports suggest they are preparing for renewed assaults. Russian military bloggers reported ongoing artillery preparations in areas west of Krasnohorivka, including the use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems. These preparations are reportedly aimed at facilitating upcoming offensives towards Heorhiivka, Oleksandropil, and Maksymilyanivka. Russian reconnaissance groups are also said to be active in the area, laying groundwork for further attacks. The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed Russian ground attacks near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka on September 13 and 14. As the situation develops, both sides continue to engage in military operations in the region.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces made advances southwest of Donetsk City in the Vuhledar direction on September 14. Geolocated footage from September 13 shows a mechanized assault by Russian forces on the Pivdennodonbaska No. 3 (Surhai) coal mine west of Vodyane, near Vuhledar. Russian bloggers reported initial tactical success with two platoon-sized attacks, though the entire mine complex has not been captured, with Ukrainian forces still present. Fighting continues near the Pivdennodonbaska No. 1 mine.
A Russian blogger noted significant Russian advancements west of Prechystivka. Reports indicate additional movements of Russian military equipment and personnel toward the Donetsk-Vuhledar region, suggesting an escalation in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed Russian attacks near Vuhledar, including in Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Vodyane, and Zolota Nyva. The military situation in the region remains active as both sides engage in ongoing operations.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
On September 14, both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported no fighting in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian military forces have been observed operating in the vicinity of Verbove, a location east of Robotyne.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
On September 13 and 14, positional engagements persisted on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, specifically within the Dnipro River Delta. Ukrainian military observer Kostyanyn Mashovets highlighted ongoing conflicts on Bilohrudyi, Kazatsky, and Melkyi Islands, all located near Kherson City.
Ukraine News
On the night of September 13 to 14, Russian forces launched a significant drone attack using 76 Shahed-136/131 drones from Kursk Oblast, Yeysk in Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Cape Chauda in Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Forces successfully intercepted 72 of these drones, while two malfunctioned and did not reach their targets, and two inadvertently returned to Russian airspace. Additionally, a Shahed drone temporarily entered Belarusian airspace from Lviv Oblast before returning to Ukraine. Ukrainian forces downed several drones over Odesa Oblast and others across Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, and Sumy oblasts.
On September 14, Ukraine and Russia conducted their third prisoner of war exchange since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, which began on August 6, 2024. This recent exchange involved 103 prisoners from each side. Ukraine received servicemembers who had defended the Azovstal Steel Plant in Mariupol and other military personnel. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the group included soldiers from various regions, such as Kyiv, Donetsk, and Mariupol, including 23 Azov fighters. Many of the released require serious medical attention after their time in captivity. This exchange is part of ongoing efforts, with 3,672 Ukrainians freed to date. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the individuals returned to Russia were primarily conscripts captured in Kursk Oblast. The increase in exchanges, totaling 267 POWs each since the incursion, contrasts with the fewer exchanges earlier in the year.
During the 20th annual Yalta European Strategy meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, highlighted North Korea’s pivotal role in supporting Russia’s military efforts, notably through substantial ballistic missile supplies, ranking it as the foremost contributor compared to other nations. Budanov also pointed out Russia’s increased production of Iskander missiles and guided aerial bombs. He further mentioned that Russia aims to conclude the conflict by late 2025 or early 2026, anticipating significant economic challenges by summer 2025 that could force further mobilization. U.S. intelligence estimates reveal Russia’s substantial financial burden due to the war, with costs reaching up to $211 billion on military operations and an expected $1.3 trillion in economic losses by 2026.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 19
On September 14, a Russian attack on an agricultural enterprise in the Huliaipole community of Zaporizhzhia Oblast resulted in the deaths of three civilians, all employees of the enterprise.
Russian forces targeted Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight and on September 13, injuring two women aged 54 and 63 and a 60-year-old man.
In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks over the past day killed three people and injured four others.
Kharkiv Oblast also faced assaults that injured five people. In Kupiansk, a 30-year-old woman was injured by a Russian FPV drone, while a 64-year-old man was hurt in a missile strike on a bread factory. Three additional men were injured during shelling across the region.
In Kherson Oblast, one person was killed and seven were injured over the past day. The attacks damaged an educational institution, two high-rise buildings, six houses, a bus, and several cars.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine is now producing its own 155 mm artillery ammunition, according to Oleksandr Kamyshin, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s external adviser for strategic issues. Under Kamyshin’s leadership as Strategic Industries Minister, Ukraine’s defense production has doubled and is expected to triple by the end of the year.
Despite these efforts, Ukraine still largely relies on Western partners for 155 mm shells. European countries and the United States have ramped up production to meet Ukraine’s needs, with the U.S. opening a new factory in May to supply munitions.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated in a September 14 interview that the alliance could have supplied Ukraine with more arms before Russia’s full-scale invasion to potentially prevent the war. Speaking to German newspaper FAS, Stoltenberg noted that NATO’s reluctance to provide weapons earlier, due to fears of escalation, contributed to delays in systems like tanks and fighter jets.
Stepping down next month, Stoltenberg said the invasion marked a turning point in European history and stressed that the war will eventually end through dialogue with Russia, but only based on Ukrainian strength. NATO remains committed to supporting Ukraine, with plans to provide at least €40 billion in aid, new military training, and further air defense support.
The Biden administration has asked Congress to extend the authority to supply weapons to Ukraine under “presidential write-offs” until 2025. This extension would allow the use of $5.8 billion in remaining funds beyond the fiscal year ending on September 30. If not extended, the funds will expire, potentially forcing a large aid package by October 1, which could face logistical challenges.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced over $700 million in new aid during a visit to Kyiv, including $325 million for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and $290 million for humanitarian support.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The Kremlin is reportedly intensifying efforts to militarize youth in occupied Ukraine, focusing on enhancing Russia’s long-term military capabilities. Recent footage released by the Russian Ministry of Defense shows Russian servicemembers conducting classes on safe explosives handling for high school students in occupied Mariupol.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian forces are actively refurbishing captured Soviet-era Ukrainian military equipment to bolster their vehicle reserves. On September 14, Lieutenant General Yevgeny Razumikhin, Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District, reported that approximately 30% of the Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and tanks seized by the Southern Grouping of Forces have been repaired and returned to service. He noted that the equipment being repaired primarily consists of items originally supplied to Ukraine by former Warsaw Pact countries.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com