Summary of the Day:
Russian forces have made advances near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, as well as southwest of Donetsk City. The Russian military continues to recruit Syrian fighters to bolster its forces in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office has opened an investigation into another alleged execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war by Russian forces.
On the diplomatic front, Russian officials held high-level meetings with Iran and North Korea, aiming to strengthen military cooperation with these non-Western allies.
Leaked documents have revealed ongoing Kremlin efforts to conduct large-scale information operations targeting Ukraine and Western countries through social media platforms.
Picture of the Day:
A mine recently destroyed by Russian forces bellows smoke near the city of Myrnohrad in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have been advancing in areas southeast of Pokrovsk. (Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russia’s Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site in the Arctic Circle is reportedly ready to resume operations, according to site head Andrei Sinitsyn. This development comes after Russia’s withdrawal from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 2023 and amid increased activity observed at the site through satellite imagery.
The potential revival of nuclear testing coincides with Russia’s escalating pressure on Baltic countries. Tactics include GPS jamming, cyber-attacks, and border disputes, part of a broader strategy of hybrid warfare. Estonian President Alar Karis has warned of widespread Russian intelligence and propaganda efforts in the region.
NATO officials express concern about potential Russian aggression in the Baltics within the next 3-5 years. However, some experts suggest Russia’s goal may be destabilization rather than invasion. This complex, non-military threat poses challenges for NATO’s response capabilities.
These developments significantly contribute to rising global tensions, particularly between Russia and the West, against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The Path to Peace
Ukraine is developing plans to end Russia’s war, but these plans do not include a ceasefire or ceding territory to Moscow, according to Presidential Office adviser Mykhailo Podolyak. He stressed that freezing the conflict would only allow Russia to regroup and potentially escalate violence.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has mentioned a “Victory Plan” that includes operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine’s participation in global security, diplomatic pressure on Russia, and economic measures. The plan is reportedly over 90% complete and will be presented to allies soon. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield confirmed that U.S. officials have seen the plan and believe it “can work.”
Ukraine is also preparing for a second peace summit, following the first in Switzerland, and may invite a Russian representative this time. Zelensky plans to present the strategy to allies, including President Biden, during the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York.
In a contrasting view, Donald Trump Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. published an op-ed opposing Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory. They urged the Biden-Harris administration to seek diplomatic solutions, citing nuclear war risks. This comes as Ukraine hopes for permission to use such missiles. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has promised to end the war quickly if elected, while Kamala Harris pledged continued support for Ukraine.
On the international front, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has reaffirmed his country’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, stating that Brazil cannot interfere in the conflict. This statement comes in response to criticism from President Zelensky regarding Brazil and China’s joint six-point peace plan. The Brazilian-Chinese plan, which calls for non-escalation and increased humanitarian assistance, contrasts with Ukraine’s 10-point peace formula.
While Moscow has expressed openness to Brazil and China as intermediaries, there have been no direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia since early 2022, with both sides maintaining divergent conditions for talks. Lula emphasized Brazil’s importance on the global stage and its desire for peace.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in approximately one million combined troop casualties for both sides, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing confidential estimates. The figures suggest Ukraine has suffered 480,000 casualties, including 80,000 dead and 400,000 wounded, while Russia’s casualties are estimated at 600,000, with up to 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded.
The conflict has led to significant demographic challenges for both nations. Ukraine’s population could potentially drop from 40 million pre-invasion to between 25-27 million. Meanwhile, Russia is experiencing a talent drain as hundreds of thousands of its citizens relocate abroad.
The Wall Street Journal report suggests that part of Russia’s invasion goal was to incorporate Ukrainian population to address its own demographic issues. However, the conflict has instead led to a sharp decline in Ukraine’s birth rate and exacerbated Russia’s demographic challenges.
In recent military developments, the Ukrainian Navy reportedly struck Russian ammunition depots near occupied Mariupol on September 17. The attack allegedly destroyed storage facilities and ammunition in the village of Hlyboke, Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
In a developing situation along the Ukrainian-Russian border, reports of military engagements have emerged from the Kursk Oblast region. On September 17, Ukrainian forces reportedly launched attacks in Glushkovsky Raion, located west of the Kursk Oblast salient. Russian officials claim to have successfully repelled these attacks near the villages of Veseloye and Medvezhye. Some Russian sources have suggested that Ukraine may be attempting to encircle Veseloye, though no confirmed Ukrainian advances have been reported at this time.
Russian sources have claimed progress in Korenevsky Raion, including the alleged capture of Uspenovka and Darino. However, these claims lack visual evidence to support them. Ukrainian forces, for their part, reportedly repelled a Russian attack near Lyubimovka and claim to have encircled Russian forces in Kremyanoye. Russian sources have credited various military units for the recent captures of Snagost, Obukhovka, and Borki.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near Hlyboke and in Vovchansk, located north and northeast of Kharkiv City, on September 16-17. Ukrainian forces responded with counterattacks in these areas, with reports suggesting possible advances near the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. Sources indicate that Russian forces are utilizing conscripts for logistics operations, allowing regular military personnel to be reassigned to assault duties.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on September 17. Reports indicate that Russian troops made advances near Pishchane, Kolesynivka, and Kruhlyakivka, southeast of Kupyansk, as well as east of Nevske near Kreminna. However, these claims currently lack visual confirmation. Combat operations are ongoing in western Stelmakhivka. Russian attacks were also reported in several other locations, including Synkivka, Novoosynove, Cherneshchyna, Torske, and the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched limited attacks near Siversk on September 17, though no confirmed progress has been reported. Between September 16 and 17, clashes occurred in the vicinity of Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Ivano-Darivka, and Pereizne. A Russian source claimed advances near Verkhnokamyanske, but this assertion remains unverified at this time.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Chasiv Yar on September 17, according to reports from the region. While unconfirmed, there are claims of Russian advances in multiple areas, including towards Stupochky, near the Stupky-Holubovske 2 nature reserve, and in eastern Chasiv Yar. Previous reports had confirmed Russian progress across the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal in the direction of Stupochky. The fighting continues to be intense, with ongoing battles reported around several key locations including Vasyukivka, Klishchiivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces have made advances in eastern Toretsk, as evidenced by footage released on September 17. The video shows Russian troops progressing along Lomonsova Street in the city. Concurrent with this advance, Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the vicinity of Toretsk and neighboring areas. These ongoing attacks have been reported in Druzhba, Zalizne, and Nelipivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made significant advances near Pokrovsk between September 16 and 17, according to reports from the area. The Russian military progressed in several locations, including Novokalynove, Arkhanhelske, Hrodivka, and Mykhailivka. In a notable development, Russian troops reportedly captured the settlement of Ukrainsk, with elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade raising flags in the area. The offensive continued with attacks on multiple fronts, including Novotoretske, Vozdvyzhenka, Novohrodivka, Orlivka, and Marynivka, among others. Russian sources also report strikes on infrastructure in Pokrovsk itself, claiming to have targeted a bridge and highways in the city.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces persisted in their offensive operations near Heorhiivka, west of Donetsk City, on September 16 and 17. Despite the continued attacks, there have been no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. A Russian source claimed an advance in Maksymilyanivka, but this report remains unverified. A Ukrainian spokesperson provided additional details on the situation, stating that Russian forces have reduced their use of armored vehicles in the Kurakhove direction since September 12. The spokesperson noted a failed two-tank assault on September 16 and reported an increased use of FPV drones by Russian forces in the area.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces achieved a small advance northeast of Kostyantynivka, in the vicinity of Vuhledar, according to footage released on September 17. The advance was captured on video, providing visual confirmation of the territorial gain. Russian sources have reported additional progress southeast of Vodyane and in areas close to Vuhledar, though these claims remain unverified at this time. Over the weekend of September 16-17, ongoing combat operations were reported in the areas surrounding Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
On September 17, both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported no combat activity along the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
Zaporizhia Line
Positional battles continued in the vicinity of Robotyne, located in western Zaporizhia Oblast, over the weekend of September 16-17. A Russian source reported that their forces made an advance near Kamyanske, a settlement approximately 35 kilometers northwest of Robotyne. However, this claim of territorial gain has not been independently verified.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
The Ukrainian General Staff announced that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Dnipro direction on September 16-17. This report is believed to refer to military activities on the east bank of Kherson Oblast and on islands within the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
In a significant escalation of hostilities, Russian forces launched a massive drone attack against Ukraine on the night of September 16-17. The assault involved 51 Shahed drones, deployed from Kursk Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces successfully countered the attack, shooting down 34 drones over multiple oblasts, disabling 12 through electronic warfare, and forcing two to return to Russian airspace. Despite these defensive efforts, Russian drones managed to strike energy facilities in Sumy Oblast.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office has initiated an investigation into another apparent execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW) by Russian forces. On September 16, graphic images circulated on social media showing the body of a Ukrainian servicemember in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast. The victim appeared to have been killed with a sword inscribed with the words “for Kursk.” Initial reports suggest that Russian forces from the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment may be implicated in this incident.
Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has condemned the act as a clear violation of the Geneva Convention, which explicitly prohibits the mistreatment and execution of POWs. This incident is not isolated, as Ukrainian authorities are currently investigating 84 similar cases. The United Nations has previously documented widespread abuse of Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces.
In related news, Ukrainian military spokesperson Vadym Mysnyk has suggested that Russia’s increased attacks on Sumy Oblast are a direct response to Ukraine’s recent successes in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Despite a Russian counterattack in Kursk, President Zelensky maintains that Ukrainian operations in the area are proceeding as planned.
Ryan Routh, a 58-year-old man, was arrested after being spotted with an assault rifle at Donald Trump’s golf course in Florida. The incident, which occurred on September 15, led to a high-speed chase and Routh’s subsequent arrest. He now faces charges of illegal weapon possession as a convicted felon, with prosecutors considering additional charges of attempted murder.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has categorically denied any connection between their country and Routh, despite his apparent support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Ukrainian officials have urged against drawing unfounded connections and expressed concerns that this event could fuel Russian disinformation efforts ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. President Zelensky has condemned the attack.
In domestic news, Ukraine’s parliament has approved a bill proposing significant tax increases for 2024 and 2025. The measure aims to address the country’s substantial budget deficit, exacerbated by Russia’s ongoing war. Key provisions of the bill include raising the military tax from 1.5% to 5%, increasing taxes for self-employed persons, and imposing higher taxes on bank and financial institution profits.
This legislative action is part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to find additional domestic funding sources, as the country faces a projected $35 billion budget deficit next year. While necessary for financial stability, the tax increase has raised concerns about its potential impact on citizens, many of whom are already struggling economically due to the war and its consequences.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 21
Russian forces have carried out a series of attacks on multiple Ukrainian regions, resulting in casualties and significant infrastructure damage. The assaults targeted various settlements, leaving several civilians dead and injured.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces struck 10 settlements, including the city of Kherson. The attacks claimed the lives of two individuals and left three others wounded. The neighboring Kharkiv Oblast also came under fire, with two women sustaining injuries in Kupiansk and a man hurt in Podoly village.
Donetsk Oblast was not spared from the violence, as three people were injured in an attack on Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Russian forces targeted energy infrastructure in Sumy Oblast, disrupting water supply to several districts. Local authorities are currently working to restore essential services to affected areas.
The Zaporizhzhia Oblast, particularly the Komyshuvakha community, faced a severe attack on the night of September 17. The strike resulted in at least two civilian deaths and five injuries. The attack also caused damage to homes and infrastructure, with rescue workers still searching for potential survivors trapped under the rubble. The full extent of the damage is yet to be determined.
In a separate incident, Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv on September 17. The attack injured at least seven people, including four first responders. Two civilian men, aged 19 and 25, were among those hurt in the assault.
The aftermath of the Russian attack against Kharkiv Oblast. (Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov / Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
The 5th Separate Armored Brigade of Ukraine has revealed newly upgraded Leopard 1A5V tanks, part of a larger contingent of nearly 200 tanks provided by Western allies since Russia’s invasion in 2022. These Cold War-era tanks, known for their speed and accuracy, have undergone significant modifications to address their initial vulnerability to modern weaponry.
Ukrainian engineers have enhanced the tanks with additional armor, protective screens to defend against drones, and explosive reactive armor. Soldiers operating the tanks have highlighted the advanced fire control system and improved night vision capabilities as key advantages.
While the tanks face challenges with ammunition supply, military officials expect these modernized vehicles to play a crucial role in Ukraine’s ongoing efforts against Russian forces. The upgrades aim to increase the tanks’ survivability and effectiveness on the modern battlefield.
Ukraine’s Allies
Germany has approved a significant arms deal involving Qatar and Ukraine, while also pledging additional financial support for Ukraine’s winter defense. The German government has given the green light for the sale of advanced RCH 155 artillery systems to Qatar, which in turn will transfer 12 of its PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. This “ring exchange” program aims to bolster Ukraine’s artillery capabilities in its ongoing conflict with Russia.
The PzH 2000 howitzers will undergo refurbishment in Germany before delivery, with six units expected to reach Ukraine by the end of this year and the remaining six by mid-2025. This transaction follows a similar deal in 2023 involving Gepard air defense systems. The move has sparked some controversy due to Qatar’s perceived support for Hamas and Germany’s current moratorium on certain weapons transfers to Israel. However, it may also signal a shift in Qatar’s stance towards Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
In related news, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced an additional 100 million euros ($111 million) in aid to Ukraine for the upcoming winter. This support comes as Russia is expected to continue targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, potentially leading to severe power outages. While Ukraine has prepared by protecting 85% of its energy facilities, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal warned that Ukrainians may still face limited electricity availability during the winter months.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains firm in his refusal to provide Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles, despite pressure from Western allies. This decision is supported by most Germans, according to recent polls, but critics argue that it is driven by political considerations rather than technical limitations.
On the European Union front, the Financial Times reports that the EU is planning to secure up to 40 billion euros ($44.5 billion) in loans for Ukraine. This alternative plan comes as Hungary blocks a joint EU-US loan plan agreed upon by the G7 in June. The new proposal would only require majority support, potentially bypassing Hungary’s veto.
In response to the ongoing conflict, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced a new lineup for the EU’s executive arm. Key appointments include Andrius Kubilius as the first-ever EU defense commissioner and Kaja Kallas as the new foreign affairs chief, reflecting the EU’s increased focus on defense and support for Ukraine.
Lastly, Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced that Italy will deliver a second SAMP/T air defense battery to Ukraine by the end of September. This system, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, addresses Ukraine’s urgent need for advanced air defense capabilities considering Russia’s intensifying strikes on energy infrastructure.
Russia News
Russia continues to transport natural gas through Ukraine to Europe, despite the ongoing conflict between the two countries. This arrangement, which has been mutually profitable, is set to expire at the end of 2024. Ukraine has announced it will not renew the deal.
European countries have significantly reduced their dependence on Russian gas since 2021, with imports dropping from 45% to 15% of EU natural gas imports. However, some central European nations, including Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, still heavily rely on Russian gas supplies.
Ukraine is now exploring alternative arrangements, including the potential transportation of gas from Azerbaijan through its pipeline network. Currently, the Sudzha metering station in Russia’s Kursk Oblast remains the sole entry point for Russian gas into Ukraine, following the closure of the Sokhranivka route due to the conflict.
In a related development, Russia’s recruitment of prisoners for its war effort in Ukraine has led to a surge in violent crimes committed by returning ex-convicts. A notable case involves Wagner Group fighter Sergei Kozlov, who murdered his pregnant partner after returning from the front. Russia has recruited approximately 100,000 prisoners since 2022, including those convicted of violent crimes, contributing to a 13-year high in grave crimes in the country.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced plans to send its first official mission to Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Led by Jacques Miniane, this visit marks a shift in the IMF’s approach, despite Russia’s ongoing war. Critics argue that this decision disregards international law and human rights, potentially undermining sanctions and boosting Russia’s economy.
In humanitarian news, Doctors Without Borders has announced the closure of its programs in Russia after 32 years of operation. The decision came after the Russian Justice Ministry excluded the organization’s Dutch affiliate from the register of foreign NGOs in August 2024. The humanitarian group has been providing medical aid, including treatment for tuberculosis and HIV, as well as assistance to homeless people and those affected by conflicts in various Russian regions. They also supported displaced Ukrainians in Russia. The organization expressed sadness over the closure, noting that many people in need will now be left without their support.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1130
637010 |
Tanks +6
8691 |
Artillery +25
18154 |
Arm.VEH +3
17080 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
328 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia’s ongoing efforts to recruit foreign fighters for its war in Ukraine have come under scrutiny, with new reports detailing the recruitment of Syrian citizens. On September 17, Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) revealed that Russia is actively enlisting Syrians to fight in Ukraine, particularly in the Luhansk Oblast.
The GUR shared accounts of two Syrian recruits who were sent to fight near Svatove as part of the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment. One of these recruits reportedly fled the battlefield in July 2024, while the other died from wounds sustained in a separate assault. These cases align with previous reports of Russia luring foreigners with false promises of employment and citizenship, only to force them into combat roles in Ukraine.
Russian military intelligence reports indicate that Syrian men are initially offered jobs as security guards in Russian oil regions, then enticed with higher pay and promises of Russian passports to fight in Ukraine. The Ukrainian military intelligence agency (HUR) claims these Syrian fighters are used as “cannon fodder” in mass infantry attacks.
In related news, Russia is making strides in developing new military technologies. The Kalashnikov Concern, a part of Russia’s state-owned defense company Rostec, announced on September 17 that it had tested a new mini-drone called “Karakurt” in Ukraine. The company claims this hand-launched drone can perform real-time aerial reconnaissance.
Additionally, a draft proposal for Russia’s “Internet Access Infrastructure” project has been revealed. The project, estimated to cost about 445 billion rubles ($4.8 billion), aims to create “Bureau 1440,” a low-orbit satellite group. The plan involves launching 292 satellites by 2030, with Russian state media describing Bureau 1440 as Russia’s answer to Starlink.
Russia’s Allies
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made an unannounced visit to Iran on September 17, meeting with top Iranian officials to discuss bilateral agreements and sanctions mitigation. This visit is part of a series of diplomatic engagements by Russian officials with non-Western allies, including recent trips by Shoigu to Syria and North Korea.
These diplomatic efforts come amid reports of Iran delivering missiles to Russia, North Korean military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and alleged Syrian mercenary recruitment. The visits suggest Russia is working to form a coalition of friendly states to bolster its defense industry and economic cooperation in support of its campaign in Ukraine.
In a related development, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son-hui in Moscow on the same day. The meeting focused on developing bilateral relations between the two countries. Choe is also scheduled to attend the BRICS Women’s Forum in St. Petersburg.
Lavrov’s meeting with Choe is part of his recent efforts to strengthen ties with non-Western partners. He has recently held meetings with officials from Saudi Arabia, BRICS nations, and Egypt.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, banned Russian state media outlet RT and its affiliated entities on September 17 for engaging in “foreign interference activity.” Concurrently, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on RT-connected groups for their involvement in information operations targeting various countries.
An investigation by RFE/RL’s “Schemes” project unveiled leaked documents detailing the efforts of the Russian “Social Design Agency” (SDA) company to disseminate fake official documents, news stories, and anti-Ukrainian content on social media platforms. These activities are reportedly aimed at discrediting Ukraine’s leadership and demoralizing its armed forces.
In a separate incident, a pro-Kremlin military blogger misrepresented testimony given to the Helsinki Commission by Dan Baer of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Baer had discussed potential U.S. and European support for Armenia’s democracy and security as it distances itself from Russia. The blogger falsely claimed this meant the U.S. plans to harm Armenia’s energy sector and take control of regional trade routes.
Additionally, a prominent pro-Kremlin military blogger announced on September 17 that their “media school” in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, has completed its first class. The school is now recruiting for a new two-month course starting in September 2024, focusing on “Telegram journalism” and social media content creation.
These events collectively highlight the Kremlin’s ongoing use of global information operations to advance its interests, including efforts to expand its influence in Central Asia’s information space and develop capabilities for destabilization and election interference through social media platforms.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com