Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian missile and ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver Oblast, using drones. This attack, along with others on Russian logistics facilities, is expected to impact Russia’s ability to launch long-range strikes and create broader operational pressures on their military.
In Russia, authorities arrested the head of the Central Military District’s armor service on bribery charges. Separately, an armed assault on Wildberries offices in Moscow resulted in two deaths and seven injuries, raising internal security concerns. The incident reportedly involved Vladislav Bakalchuk, the estranged husband of Wildberries’ founder, attempting to enter the building with security guards.
On the diplomatic front, Armenia froze its membership in the Russian-led CSTO, indicating worsening relations with Russia. Meanwhile, the Russian State Duma approved a bill proposing to release Russian servicemembers in Ukraine from certain criminal punishments.
Recent troop movements saw Ukrainian forces advancing in the Kursk Oblast salient. Russian forces made gains along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Donetsk City, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
Picture of the Day:
Andrii helps to transport the belongings of Nikolay, 70 years old, amid the evacuations of civilians from Sumy Oblast. Residents of the embattled border region endure frequent Russian attacks daily. (Andre Luis Alves/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Armenia’s decision to freeze its membership in the Russian-led CSTO, coupled with the arrest of individuals allegedly plotting a coup with Russian ties, marks a significant shift in the country’s foreign policy. This move away from Moscow and towards Europe could reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus region. The deteriorating Armenia-Russia relationship highlights the changing dynamics in post-Soviet states and may lead to increased competition for influence in the area.
The Middle East remains a hotbed of cyber conflict and proxy warfare. Israel’s reported detonation of Hezbollah pagers in Lebanon and Syria has drawn criticism from Russia, underscoring the complex web of alliances in the region. Russia’s support for Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah and Houthi rebels, adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation. This escalation in cyber warfare and covert operations could further destabilize the region and increase the risk of broader conflict.
Concerns about election interference continue to mount as the 2024 US presidential election approaches. Microsoft’s report on Russian and Iranian cyber operations targeting the election highlights the persistent threat to democratic processes worldwide. The use of sophisticated troll farms to spread disinformation not only jeopardizes the integrity of elections but also has the potential to exacerbate international tensions and undermine trust in democratic institutions.
Finland’s push for significant reforms to the UN Security Council, including calls for Russia’s suspension, reflects growing dissatisfaction with the current global security architecture. This drive for change could lead to diplomatic tensions and potentially reshape international power dynamics. The proposed reforms, if implemented, would have far-reaching implications for global governance and the balance of power among nations.
In Eastern Europe, NATO-Russia tensions continue to simmer. Romania’s demand for a strong NATO response to Russian drone incursions into allied airspace underscores the escalating security concerns in the region. The increasing militarization of the Black Sea area and NATO’s ongoing support for Ukraine contribute to the strained relations between Russia and the West, raising the specter of further confrontation.
Meanwhile, the strengthening economic ties between Russia and Pakistan, despite Western sanctions, demonstrate the shifting global economic landscape. This partnership could have significant implications for regional stability and international economic relations, particularly in Central and South Asia. As countries seek to navigate the complex web of international sanctions and alliances, new economic partnerships are emerging that may challenge established global economic structures.
These developments collectively point to a world of increasing geopolitical complexity, with shifting alliances, technological warfare, and challenges to established international institutions shaping the global landscape. As tensions rise on multiple fronts, the risk of miscalculation and conflict escalation remains a serious concern for global stability.
The Path to Peace
President Zelensky announced that Ukraine’s victory plan, to be presented to Washington, has been finalized. The plan, which Zelensky will discuss with President Biden during his upcoming U.S. visit, focuses on Ukraine’s security, foreign military assistance, and economic support. It also includes Ukraine’s recent cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Zelensky emphasized the need for peace without freezing the conflict or ceding territory to Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
The Ukrainian Navy reported a missile strike on Russian ammunition warehouses near occupied Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in the village of Hlyboke. The attack, which allegedly occurred on September 17, destroyed storage facilities and large quantities of ammunition. Local eyewitnesses mentioned strikes on September 13 and 15-16 as well. Satellite imagery showed damage to the warehouses and surrounding areas. An adviser to Mariupol’s exiled mayor shared photos of the damage, though these claims couldn’t be independently verified.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces continued attacks in Glushkovsky Raion, west of their main position in Kursk Oblast, on September 18. Russian sources claim they repelled Ukrainian attacks near Veseloye, Medvezhye, and Novy Put. Russian airborne units are reportedly defending against these assaults in the area.
Ukrainian forces expanded their position in Kursk Oblast on September 18, advancing east of Krasnooktyabrskoye. Russia claims Ukraine attacked near Obukhovka, Lyubimovka, and Malaya Loknya. These movements are part of ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in the area.
Russian forces recaptured some territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 18. They advanced southeast of Korenevo and south of Obukhovka. Russian sources claim advances near Durovka, Olgovka, and Uspenovka. Russia reportedly attacked Ukrainian positions near Nikolayevo-Daryino, Daryino, Lyubimovka, Tolsty Lug, and Plekhovo.
Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi claimed on September 18 that Ukraine has stopped Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast and stabilized the situation. Ukraine had previously captured about 100 settlements and 1,300 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast since August 6. Russia launched a counteroffensive last week, initially claiming to have retaken 10 settlements. Dmytrashkivskyi acknowledged that Russian forces had recaptured one settlement and entered another since September 10-11, admitting minor Russian successes, but stated the situation is now stable. The Institute for the Study of War noted recent Ukrainian advances in Korenevsky, Sudzhansky, and Glushkovsky districts. Thousands of Russian civilians reportedly remain in Ukrainian-occupied areas of Kursk Oblast. However, independent observers have not yet confirmed that Ukrainian forces have fully halted Russian advances in the area.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck the Russian Ministry of Defense’s 107th Arsenal near Toropets, Tver Oblast on September 18. The drone attack targeted a facility storing various missiles and artillery ammunition, resulting in large secondary explosions and significant damage. Located 470 km north of the Ukrainian border and 370 km west of Moscow, Toropets saw ongoing air defense operations, fire containment efforts, and partial evacuation of its 11,000 residents. Russian authorities claimed they downed the drone, with wreckage causing the detonations. Some Russian military bloggers criticized the facility’s construction and potential mishandling of stockpiles, with some blaming former Deputy Defense Minister Dmitri Bulgakov for alleged corrupt practices.
These attacks, reminiscent of the HIMARS strikes in occupied Ukraine during Summer 2022, are impacting Russia’s ability to launch long-range missile strikes against Ukraine and may force the Russian military to reorganize and disperse their support systems. This could significantly disrupt Russian logistics and potentially affect their offensive capabilities in Ukraine. Russia claimed to have downed 54 Ukrainian drones overnight in various regions but did not mention Tver Oblast. Ukraine, known for using domestically-produced drones for deep strikes in Russia, has not commented on these claims. A previous drone attack in Tver Oblast reportedly targeted a major chemical research plant near Redkino in June, demonstrating Ukraine’s growing ability to target facilities deeper inside Russia.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast on September 18, focusing on Vovchansk. Russian sources claim Ukrainian counterattacks near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, and Lyptsi. No confirmed frontline changes were reported.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made confirmed advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, progressing west of Tabaivka, west of Karmazynivka, and south of Makiivka. Ukraine reported Russian attacks near several settlements including Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stelmakhivka, and Torske. Russian anti-tank units are reportedly operating near Kupyansk. Some Russian claims of additional advances remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched offensive operations near Siversk on September 17 and 18. They targeted areas east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske and southeast of Siversk near Vyimka. However, no confirmed advances were reported in these locations.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar on September 17-18, targeting Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Klishchiivka, but made no confirmed gains. A Russian blogger claimed that Russian and Chechen forces crossed the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal towards Stupochky. Another source reported Russian struggles to hold positions in eastern Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces made small advances in eastern Toretsk on September 18, progressing along Tsentralna Street. They also continued attacks near Dachne, Nelipivka, Niu York, Oleksandropil, and towards Shcherbynivka. Some Russian sources claimed further advances in and around Toretsk, but these reports lack confirmation.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Pokrovsk on September 17-18, with claims of progress in Hrodivka and towards Selydove and Hirnyk. However, these advances are unconfirmed. Russian attacks continued in numerous settlements around Pokrovsk, including Novooleksandrivka, Zelene Pole, Novohrodivka, and Ukrainsk.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked near Heorhiivka, Maksymilyanivka, and towards Dalne on September 17-18, but made no confirmed progress. A Russian source claimed repeated airstrikes on the Ternovska dam in Kurakhove, though the dam’s road surface reportedly remains largely intact.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced north of Vodyane, southwest of Donetsk City, on September 18. They continued attacks near the Pivdennodonbaska mines, with Ukrainian counterattacks reported in the same area. Russian operations also continued near Kostyantynivka, Vuhledar, and other nearby settlements.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
On September 18, there were no reports of combat activity in the area bordering Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts from either Russian or Ukrainian sources.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. Video evidence shows Russian gains in northwestern Marfopil, southeast of Hulyaipole. A Russian source claimed full control of Marfopil and minor advances northwest of it. The Ukrainian military confirmed Russian attacks near Hulyaipole on September 18. This marks the first confirmed Russian progress in this area since July 18, 2024.
Russian forces attacked several areas in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 17-18, targeting settlements near Robotyne such as Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky. While there were no confirmed changes to the frontline, Russian forces increased activity near Kopani. The area also experienced heavy aerial bombardment, particularly around Kamyanske, Orikhiv, and Komyshuvakha.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces launched small-scale attacks in eastern Kherson Oblast and on islands in the Dnipro River Delta on September 17-18.
Ukraine News
On the night of September 17-18, Russia launched a large-scale drone attack against Ukraine, using 52 Shahed drones and 3 cruise missiles. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 46 drones across multiple regions, while electronic warfare countered 5 more. The attack resulted in damage to 19 residential buildings and one fatality in Kropyvnytskyi, Kirovohrad Oblast. Energy infrastructure in Sumy Oblast was also targeted.
A Ukrainian official, Roman Kostenko, disputed The Wall Street Journal’s claim that 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the war with Russia, calling it exaggerated. While President Zelensky previously stated 31,000 troops had been killed, Kostenko suggested the figure could be closer to 50,000. He emphasized Ukraine’s continued ability to mobilize troops, noting recent legislation that lowered the conscription age and increased penalties for draft dodging.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump plans to meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda and possibly Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in New York. Trump and Duda may appear together at a Polish-American monument near Philadelphia. Zelensky intends to present his Victory Plan for Ukraine to U.S. leaders, including President Biden and candidates Trump and Harris. The meetings come amid ongoing discussions about U.S. support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, with Trump’s stance on the conflict remaining a topic of debate.
Ukraine’s parliament approved a $12 billion increase to the state budget for defense and military needs, bringing total expenditures to $89.8 billion. The additional funding will be primarily financed through domestic government bonds, reduced debt repayment expenses, and increased tax revenues, including higher excise duties on tobacco and fuel.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 26
Russian attacks across Ukraine have resulted in multiple casualties. In Kropyvnytskyi, one person was killed and a 90-year-old woman injured. Kharkiv Oblast reported 10 injuries, including four emergency workers and a teenager. In Kherson Oblast, a 63-year-old man died and four others were injured. Zaporizhzhia Oblast saw two deaths and five injuries in Komyshuvakha. Additional injuries were reported in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attacks on Marhanets and Nikopol left one dead and four injured, including a nine-year-old boy. Governor Serhii Lysak reported that shelling in Marhanets wounded the child and two women, while a drone strike in Nikopol injured two adults, one of whom later died. These attacks affected various settlements across central and eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Allies
French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets for Ukraine will be modified at the Cazaux air base to hit ground targets, according to Sud-Ouest. These fourth-generation jets, comparable to F-16s, have upgraded radar systems and extended range. French President Emmanuel Macron announced in June that an unspecified number would be transferred to Ukraine, along with pilot training, but provided no timeline.
Vice President Kamala Harris is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, D.C. next week, following Zelensky’s meeting with President Joe Biden at the U.N. General Assembly in New York. Zelensky plans to present his completed “Victory Plan” for Ukraine to U.S. leaders, including potentially former President Donald Trump. This visit comes amid contrasting views on Ukraine within the U.S. political landscape, with the current administration maintaining support for Ukraine while Trump’s stance remains ambiguous.
Russia News
Russian authorities arrested Denis Putilov, head of the Central Military District’s armor service, on September 18 for allegedly accepting a 10-million-ruble bribe in exchange for vehicle repair contracts. This arrest is part of a broader crackdown on corruption within the Russian military, initiated by new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov since his appointment in April 2024. Putilov’s role likely involved overseeing the maintenance of tanks and armored vehicles used in Ukraine, including those of the 90th Tank Division. This case highlights Belousov’s efforts to address corruption and mismanagement issues that existed under former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
On September 18, an armed group led by Vladislav Bakalchuk, co-founder of Wildberries, attacked two company offices in Moscow City. The assault resulted in two security guards killed and two others injured. Russian law enforcement detained 28 people involved. This incident follows a recent divorce between Vladislav and Wildberries CEO Tatyana Bakalchuk, which involved Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The attack raises concerns about Russia’s domestic security, especially considering recent efforts to address such issues following previous incidents in Crocus City Hall and Dagestan.
A Russian court increased Yuri Kokhovets’ sentence from five years’ hard labor to five years in prison for criticizing the Ukraine conflict in a street interview. Kokhovets, 38, had accused Russian soldiers of unjustly shooting civilians in Bucha during a July 2022 interview with Radio Liberty. Initially sentenced in April 2024 for spreading “false information,” prosecutors successfully appealed for a harsher punishment. This case is part of a broader crackdown on dissent in Russia, with thousands detained or jailed for opposing the Ukraine offensive.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indefinitely postponed its planned visit to Russia, which would have been the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. The mission, originally scheduled to start online on September 16 followed by a visit to Moscow, faced criticism from several European countries. Russia’s IMF executive director, Alexei Mozhin, cited “technical unpreparedness” as the reason for the postponement. Mozhin will be replaced in November by Ksenia Yudaeva, a sanctioned former Russian Central Bank official, raising questions about her ability to enter the U.S. where the IMF is headquartered.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
|
Troops
637010 |
Tanks
8691 |
Artillery
18154 |
Arm.VEH
17080 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
328 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities are testing a new digital system called the “Unified Register of Military Registration” to send electronic military summonses. The system is being tested in Ryazan, Sakhalin, and Mari El regions. Officials plan to fully launch it by November 2024 for the fall conscription cycle but will continue to use physical summonses alongside digital ones.
The Russian State Duma has approved a bill that would allow courts to suspend criminal cases against Russian soldiers serving in Ukraine. This extends previous legislation that permitted dismissal of cases during pre-trial investigations or after sentencing. If passed, this new law would give Russian authorities broad power to dismiss criminal charges against servicemembers at any stage of legal proceedings.
Russia is integrating veterans of the Ukraine war into key government and economic positions. A veteran from the “Time of Heroes” program was appointed Deputy Head of Russian Railway’s Social Development Department. The United Russia party has nominated over 300 veterans for regional elections in September 2024, including some from the “Time of Heroes” program.
Russia may invest 445 billion rubles ($4.75 billion) to develop a Starlink-like satellite internet system, according to government documents cited by Izvestiya. The plan involves creating low-orbit satellites and launch vehicles between 2025 and 2030. The Ministry of Digital Development confirmed satellite communications as a priority but said funding discussions are premature.
Russia’s Allies
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) met in Minsk to discuss improving the alliance’s air defense system.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com