Summary of the Day:
The Ukraine conflict continues to intensify, with significant implications for global geopolitical tensions. The European Commission’s announcement of €80 billion in new loan mechanisms for Ukraine underscores the West’s deepening commitment to Kyiv, likely to further strain relations with Russia. Ukraine’s successful incursion into Kursk Oblast, achieving operational surprise despite Russian awareness, demonstrates the evolving nature of warfare and the potential for conflict expansion into Russian territory.
This development, coupled with recent Russian advances near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian counter-gains in Vovchansk and Siversk, highlights the conflict’s volatility and the risk of escalation. Russia’s attempt to manipulate its meeting with the ICRC to legitimize its occupation and spread disinformation about Ukrainian human rights abuses reveals the ongoing information warfare dimension, complicating diplomatic efforts.
Meanwhile, Russian state media’s emphasis on foreign fighters in Ukraine suggests internal concerns about manpower, potentially indicating future mobilization challenges. These developments collectively point to a protracted conflict with increasing international involvement, raising the specter of broader regional destabilization and heightened global tensions.
Picture of the Day:
From L: Yurii, 31, reacts when his wife Alyona, 35, and stepdaughter Angelyna, 12, depart aboard an evacuation bus in the city of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are now only 10 kilometers (six miles) away from the city of Pokrovsk, a now-deserted city, once home to 60,000. (Genya Savilov / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin warned Western governments that allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons against targets in Russia could lead to nuclear war. His statement came after the European Parliament voted to urge EU countries to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons against Russian military targets. Volodin threatened a “tough response” if the resolution is acted upon, mentioning Russia’s RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. He claimed this decision could lead to a world war with nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to request permission to use donated long-range weapons against Russian military targets inside Russia.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan criticized the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led alliance, stating it fails to ensure Armenia’s security and even threatens it. Armenia has frozen its CSTO membership and is seeking other security partners. This move follows Armenia’s distancing from Russia since the Ukraine invasion in 2022. In July, Russian border guards withdrew from Zvartnots International Airport in the Armenian capital, where they had been stationed since 1991. The CSTO, formed in 1992, now has six members after several countries left the alliance.
Germany has overcome its energy crisis and is prepared for winter 2025, according to Economy Minister Robert Habeck. The country’s gas storage facilities are full, and it no longer relies on Russian gas, with Norway now supplying 60% of Germany’s needs. While gas prices remain higher than pre-Ukraine war levels, Habeck attributes this to increased Asian demand for LNG rather than supply shortages. He expects prices to moderate as more LNG enters the German market. Meanwhile, negotiations are underway between the EU, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Ukraine to potentially replace Russian gas transit through Ukraine with Azerbaijani supplies after the current deal expires in December 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the inauguration of Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum on October 1, despite receiving an invitation. A Russian Foreign Ministry official stated that Putin’s representative will attend instead. This decision comes after Ukraine requested Mexico to arrest Putin in accordance with the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) warrant issued in March 2023 for the forcible transfer of Ukrainian children. Mexico, an ICC member, had previously stated it would not accommodate Ukraine’s request. Putin recently visited Mongolia, another ICC member country, without facing arrest, which led to criticism from Ukraine and Western countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the inauguration of Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum on October 1, despite receiving an invitation. A Russian Foreign Ministry official stated that Putin’s representative will attend instead. This decision comes after Ukraine requested Mexico to arrest Putin in accordance with the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) warrant issued in March 2023 for the forcible transfer of Ukrainian children. Mexico, an ICC member, had previously stated it would not accommodate Ukraine’s request. Putin recently visited Mongolia, another ICC member country, without facing arrest, which led to criticism from Ukraine and Western countries.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced a new “victory plan” to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which he plans to present to U.S. President Joe Biden and other American leaders during an upcoming visit. The plan, kept largely secret, aims to strengthen Ukraine’s position and push Russia towards a just peace. It reportedly covers military, political, diplomatic, and economic strategies, but does not include a partial ceasefire. The announcement comes as Ukraine has made advances in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, exposing Moscow’s vulnerabilities. Zelensky emphasizes the need for quick decisions from allies between October and December. The plan may include requests for long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia and improved cooperation between Ukrainian regions and American states. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to make advances in eastern Ukraine and launch missile attacks across the country.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces continued attacks in Kursk Oblast on September 20, targeting areas near Glushkovo, including Novyi Put, Medvezhye, Krasnooktyabrskoye, and Volfino. Russian sources claim they repelled these attacks. Some reports suggest Ukrainian forces are attempting to encircle Russian positions in Veseloye. However, no confirmed Ukrainian advances were reported.
Russian sources claim their forces made advances in Kursk Oblast on September 20, particularly near Darino and Nikolayeva-Darino, southeast of Korenevo. These areas are on the southwestern edge of the Ukrainian salient. However, these claims have not been independently confirmed.
Fighting continued in the Kursk Oblast salient on September 20. Russia claims to have repelled Ukrainian attacks near Lyubimovka, Kremyanoye, and Malaya Loknya. Russian sources report their forces are attacking towards Gordeevka and Plekhovo. A Ukrainian pontoon crossing near Kurylivka was reportedly struck. Russian volunteer units are said to be operating in the area. No confirmed advances were made by either side.
According to The Guardian, Russian authorities were aware of a potential Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast months before August 2024 but failed to adequately prepare. Documents seized by Ukrainian forces reveal that local Russian commanders had warned about this possibility since late 2023, requesting additional training, fortifications, and equipment. However, as of June 2024, Russian units along the border were understaffed and poorly trained. Despite Russian awareness, Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during their incursion, demonstrating that surprise is still achievable on a partially transparent battlefield. Ukraine’s innovative integration of ground activity and unmanned systems contributed to their ability to maintain ambiguity about their operational intent and capabilities, allowing them to advance into Kursk Oblast despite Russian forces observing their concentrations.
Ukraine’s military confirmed striking two Russian arms depots overnight. One attack hit a major weapons depot in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, reportedly destroying up to 3 months’ worth of ammunition, including North Korean supplies. The strike also damaged a radar system. Local authorities evacuated 1,200 residents. Another confirmed strike targeted an ammunition depot near Oktyabrsky village in Tver Oblast. Ukraine’s Security Service also reportedly hit Shaykovka military airfield in Kaluga Oblast, which houses strategic aircraft used for missile strikes against Ukraine. Russia claims to have intercepted 101 Ukrainian drones across several regions, but this couldn’t be independently verified.
Ukraine conducted a drone strike on a major Russian arms depot in Tver Oblast on Sept. 18, destroying 30,000 tons of ammunition. Estonian Colonel Ants Kiviselg reported this equals two to three month of supplies for Russia at current usage rates. The attack targeted the Topolets facility, which stored various weapons including Iskander missiles and artillery shells. This strike may impact Russia’s ability to maintain its current artillery advantage over Ukraine in the coming weeks.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Recent fighting in northern Kharkiv Oblast saw both Ukrainian and Russian forces make small advances. Ukrainian troops entered central Vovchansk, while Russian forces advanced slightly near Tykhe. Contests continue over the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. Russian attacks persisted near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe, with Ukrainian counterattacks reported near Hlyboke. A Ukrainian officer noted successful drone strikes exploiting weaknesses in Russian electronic warfare systems.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made small advances northwest of Kreminna, gaining ground in Makiivka and near Nevske. They continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with reported advances towards Kivsharivka and Nevske. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Kovalivka. Fighting persisted in multiple settlements northeast and southeast of Kupyansk, as well as around Kreminna and in the Serebryanske forest area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Ukrainian forces made small gains near Siversk in recent months, as shown by footage from September 17. These advances occurred northeast of Verkhnokamyanske and west of Sakko i Vantsetti. Meanwhile, Russian forces continued their attacks in the area, targeting Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka on September 19 and 20.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar and surrounding areas on September 19-20. They targeted Ivanivske, Kurdyumivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. While a Russian source claimed an advance south of Ivanivske, there’s no confirmed change to the frontline in this region.
Toretsk
Russian forces made a small advance in eastern Toretsk, reaching Tereshkovoi Street, as shown in footage from September 20. Fighting continued in and around Toretsk, with Russian attacks reported in Dachne, Nelipivka, and towards Shcherbynivka on September 19-20. While Russian sources claimed further gains in Toretsk and near Niu York, these remain unconfirmed.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made a small advance southwest of Mykhailivka, southeast of Pokrovsk, as shown in footage from September 19. Fighting continues in various settlements east and southeast of Pokrovsk, including Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and others. Ukrainian President Zelensky noted reduced Russian offensive intensity in Donetsk Oblast but described the situation near Pokrovsk as “extremely difficult.” A newly-formed Russian battalion from the Moscow Military District is reportedly operating in the area, marking a notable deployment to this front.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces reportedly advanced west of Donetsk City on September 20, particularly near Hostre, though this claim is unconfirmed. They conducted operations near Heorhiivka and towards Dalne.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces claimed advances southwest of Donetsk City near Vuhledar on September 20, particularly near Vodyane and Kostyantynivka, but these remain unconfirmed. They conducted operations in several areas around Vuhledar, including Katerynivka, Prechystivka, and Bohoiavlenka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces launched offensive operations near Rivnopil, located in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts, on September 19 and 20. This information was reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces conducted limited operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20, with attacks reported near Robotyne, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, Lobkove, and Pyatykhaty. Pyatykhaty and Kamyanske were also targeted with glide bombs and airstrikes. No confirmed changes to the frontline were reported. A Ukrainian spokesperson noted the use of advanced glide bombs by Russian forces in the Zaporizhia area.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a drone strike on Enerhodar but did not hit the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). On September 20, IAEA member states called for the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from the ZNPP and its return to Ukrainian control. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi described the situation at ZNPP as “very fragile” and promised increased nuclear safety assistance to Ukraine.
Russian forces carried out limited ground attacks in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast, on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a widespread aerial attack on Ukraine overnight on September 19-20. They fired missiles at Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and 70 Shahed drones from various locations. Ukrainian forces intercepted most drones and one missile. In Odesa, debris from an Iskander-M missile damaged port infrastructure and a civilian ship. A Russian glide bomb strike on a retirement home in Sumy City killed at least one and injured 14 civilians, with nearly 300 elderly residents in the building at the time.
Russian missile strikes against Ukraine have slightly increased in 2024, but production limitations constrain significant escalation. Analyst Petro Chernyk noted a 25-missile increase in the largest strikes compared to December 2023. Russia can theoretically launch 300-400 missiles simultaneously using various platforms, but monthly production averages 120-130 missiles. Western air defense systems help protect Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with 40-50% already destroyed. Ukraine still receives over half its electricity from nuclear power plants, though the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP remains shut down. Russian strikes have destroyed 9 gigawatts of Ukraine’s electrical capacity, half of its peak winter consumption.
Norway and Finland have detected slightly elevated radiation levels near their borders with Russia, likely due to a forest fire near the Chornobyl nuclear plant in Ukraine. The levels, while higher than normal, are not considered dangerous to people or the environment. Officials believe the increased radiation is from stirred-up dust containing cesium from the 1986 Chornobyl accident. Separately, Kyiv is experiencing severe air quality issues due to recent forest fires outside the capital. Authorities have issued safety recommendations to residents, including staying indoors and using air conditioners.
A 22-year-old former Ukrainian soldier has been arrested in Zaporizhzhia for allegedly spying for Russia. The suspect, whose parents cooperate with occupying forces, was reportedly recruited by a Russian GRU officer after moving to Zaporizhzhia city in May. He is accused of providing information on troop movements and military facilities. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) made the arrest and seized a phone used for communication with Russian handlers. If convicted, the suspect faces life imprisonment. This case suggests a broader Russian effort to gather intelligence in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukraine has restricted Telegram use for government, military, and critical infrastructure due to security concerns. The app, used by 44% of Ukrainians for news, is also utilized by Russia for cyberattacks and intelligence gathering. Military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov provided evidence that Russian intelligence can access users’ data, including deleted messages. The ban applies to official devices, with exceptions for those needing it for work duties. Despite its popularity in Ukraine, concerns have been raised about Telegram’s security and its CEO Pavel Durov’s connections to Russia.
President Zelensky imposed new sanctions on six individuals and over 40 entities from Iran, China, and Russia for supporting Moscow’s war efforts. The sanctions target people and companies involved in supplying drones and other military equipment to Russia, including an Iranian drone company director and a representative from a Hong Kong electronics firm. Russian citizens and businesses were also sanctioned. The U.S. separately sanctioned entities violating North Korea regulations, highlighting concerns about growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. These actions aim to curb the flow of military supplies to Russia from its allies.
Kyiv experienced a significant air quality deterioration on September 20, ranking as the second most polluted city globally according to IQAir. The pollution, mainly attributed to fires in Kyiv Oblast and a burning peat bog in nearby Chernihiv Oblast, led to an “unhealthy” air quality index of 156. City authorities advised residents to stay indoors, close windows, and use air purifiers. The air pollution included various harmful substances such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide. Despite this temporary issue, Kyiv has generally maintained good air quality, ranking among the 30 cities with the cleanest air in recent years.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 55+
A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killed three people, including a 12-year-old boy and two elderly women, and injured three others on Sept. 21. The attack damaged residential areas, a school, and vehicles.
On Sept. 20, Russian Su-34 jets launched guided bombs on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, injuring at least 15 people, including three minors. The attack targeted various locations across the city, damaging homes, businesses, and a highway near a hospital. Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that eight people were hospitalized.
Over the past day, Russian attacks across Ukraine caused multiple casualties. In Sumy Oblast, a retirement home in Sumy city was hit, killing one and injuring 14. Donetsk Oblast reported three deaths and eight injuries in various locations. In Kharkiv Oblast, one elderly man was killed, and three others were injured in different towns. Kherson Oblast saw five people injured and damage to infrastructure and buildings. These attacks affected civilian areas in multiple regions, resulting in deaths, injuries, and property damage.
Russian forces launched Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Odesa on Sept. 20, injuring four people and damaging port infrastructure, civilian buildings, and a foreign ship. The attack occurred around 2 p.m. local time, shortly after air raid sirens sounded.
The aftermath of a Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The attack killed three people, including a 12-year-old boy, and injured three others. (Serhii Lysak / Telegram)
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on Sept. 19-20, 2024. (Governor Vadym Filashkin/Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
The first group of Ukrainian pilots has completed Alpha Jet training in France, part of an international effort to prepare Ukraine for F-16 fighter jets. France began training Ukrainian pilots in March 2024, with reports suggesting a commitment to train 26 pilots. This program is crucial for Ukraine’s air force modernization, as the country has been promised nearly 80 F-16s from various NATO allies. Pilot training has been identified as a major challenge in expanding Ukraine’s F-16 capabilities. Simultaneously, Ukrainian pilots have started F-16 training in Romania, with other training programs ongoing in the U.S. and Denmark.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has approved the Takha, an all-terrain amphibious vehicle, for use by the Armed Forces. Developed by Ukrainian engineers, the Takha is already being used at the front line for evacuation and transporting supplies. It can operate in various challenging terrains, carry up to one ton of cargo or 10 passengers, and run for over two days on a single refueling. As of early June, Ukraine had approved over 110 military vehicle models for use, with one-third being domestically produced and the rest from various countries including the U.S., UK, and Germany.
Ukraine’s Allies
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced two new loan mechanisms totaling 80 billion euros for Ukraine during her visit to Kyiv on September 20, including a €35 billion ($39 billion) loan as part of a larger $50 billion pledge by the G7. President Zelensky stated the funds would be used for energy needs, bomb shelters, and defense purchases, including domestically produced long-range missiles and drones. The loan will be distributed before December 31, 2024, with Ukraine able to disburse it by the end of 2025. It is backed by profits from immobilized Russian assets. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov previously noted that with additional funding, Ukraine could produce $20 billion worth of defense equipment in 2025. While the EU moves forward with this support, the U.S. portion of the G7 pledge faces challenges due to internal disagreements within the EU about extending sanctions on Russian assets.
NATO held drone countermeasure exercises in the Netherlands, with Ukrainian soldiers participating for the first time. Over 60 counter-drone systems were tested in real-world conditions, including sensors, jammers, and cyber interceptors. The event involved 450 representatives from 19 allied countries and three partner nations. Ukraine’s inclusion aligns with the NATO-Ukraine Roadmap for Innovative Cooperation, approved at NATO’s recent 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington, DC. This marks another step towards Ukraine’s potential NATO membership.
The US is delaying approval for Ukraine to use donated long-range missiles against targets deep in Russia. President Biden’s administration is seeking more information on Ukraine’s strategy before a meeting with President Zelensky next week. The US is concerned about escalating tensions with Russia, while Ukraine argues these missiles are crucial for striking distant military targets. Recently, Ukrainian drones successfully attacked the Toropets Northeast Ammunition Depot in Russia’s Tver region, 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. NATO allies generally support giving Ukraine more freedom with these weapons. The issue will be discussed further at the upcoming UN General Assembly.
The U.S. Congress and Biden administration are nearing an agreement to extend $5.8 billion in military aid for Ukraine for one year before it expires on September 30. This extension of the presidential drawdown authority (PDA) is crucial for supplying Ukraine with arms from Pentagon stocks. While there’s bipartisan support for the extension, it must be included in a Continuing Resolution to avoid a government shutdown. The Senate is preparing a bill that includes the PDA extension after a House Republican-backed bill failed to pass. Despite a $61 billion aid package passed in April, Ukraine reports that aid is arriving too slowly due to U.S. stock constraints and Pentagon warehouse shortages. The latest U.S. aid package, worth $250 million, was announced on September 6.
The U.S. is expected to announce a $375 million military aid package for Ukraine next week, potentially including medium-range Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) missiles for F-16 fighter jets. These missiles, with a range of over 70 miles, would allow F-16 pilots to maintain distance from Russian air defenses. The package may also include patrol boats, HIMARS ammunition, artillery shells, and spare parts. While not as long-range as the ATACMS missiles Ukraine has requested, JSOWs would enhance Ukraine’s air capabilities. Ukraine received its first F-16s in late July and has already used them to intercept Russian attacks, though one aircraft has been lost in combat.
Jill Stein, the Green Party’s U.S. presidential candidate, released a statement on September 19 calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal.” This came after a controversial interview where Stein hesitated to directly label Putin as such. The statement condemned Putin’s actions in Syria but didn’t mention the invasion of Ukraine. Stein advocated for diplomacy and de-escalation of tensions, without calling for Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine. Her stance has drawn criticism, including from her former running mate. Stein has previously been criticized for repeating Russian propaganda and attending a 2015 Moscow gala with Putin. Current polls show Stein’s support at less than 2% among likely voters.
Norway has extended its Nansen support program for Ukraine until 2030, increasing its total value to 135 billion kroner ($12.8 billion). The program, which covers both civil and military aid, will receive an additional 5 billion kroner ($475 million) this year. President Zelensky expressed gratitude for Norway’s commitment, which he says will total $5.7 billion in additional support. The decision comes after criticism that Norway’s aid to Ukraine had lagged behind other countries. Norway currently ranks 12th globally in aid provided to Ukraine, having contributed $2.6 billion in various forms of support.
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) has agreed to sell its 87.74% stake in its Belarusian subsidiary Priorbank to a UAE investor, marking its exit from Belarus. This move comes amid criticism of RBI’s continued operations in Russia and Belarus following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. RBI, the largest remaining Western bank in Russia, announced plans to reduce its Russian operations in July 2024 after pressure from the European Parliament and European Central Bank. The sale of Priorbank is expected to result in a 300 million euro loss for RBI. However, a recent Russian court ruling banning the transfer of Raiffeisen shares may delay the bank’s exit from Russia.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a potential 6 gigawatt electricity shortage in Ukraine this winter, about one-third of expected peak demand. IEA chief Fatih Birol criticized European governments for insufficient support to Ukraine’s energy sector, calling it the world’s most pressing energy security issue. Russia has launched nine attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure since March, affecting 20 oblasts.
Russia News
Russian authorities have charged four servicemen in connection with the kidnapping, torture, and murder of Russell Bentley, a 63-64-year-old American known as the “Donbas Cowboy,” in Donetsk’s Petrovsky District on April 8. Bentley, a former US military serviceman turned pro-Russian propagandist, had been living in Donetsk since 2014, acquired Russian citizenship, and was working for the Russian state media outlet Sputnik at the time of his death. He was allegedly abducted while filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. Three members of Moscow’s 5th Zakharchenko Brigade are accused of the kidnapping and torture, while a fourth is charged with hiding Bentley’s remains. The suspects allegedly attempted to cover up the incident by blowing up Bentley’s car. Initially reported missing, the circumstances of his death were previously unclear. Bentley, a self-proclaimed communist, had been actively supporting Russian occupation forces and working as a “war correspondent” for Russian propaganda channels since fighting against Ukraine in 2014.
A recent survey by ExtremeScan and Chronicles reveals a shift in Russian public opinion about the war in Ukraine. Nearly 50% of Russians now support withdrawing troops and negotiating peace, up from previous polls showing high war support. The survey also found that 53% prioritize removing Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast over seizing more Ukrainian territory. Only 32% of respondents said they were willing to fight if ordered, while 29% would support new mobilization efforts. These results, based on 800 respondents, contrast with earlier polls showing greater war support, highlighting potential changes in Russian public sentiment.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
|
Troops +1440
640920 |
Tanks +21
8746 |
Artillery +58
18270 |
Arm.VEH +38
17170 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
328 |
Ships
28 |
According to a BBC analysis, Russian volunteers now account for the largest share of battlefield casualties in Ukraine since the 2022 invasion. Out of 70,112 identified Russian soldier deaths, volunteers make up 20% (13,781), surpassing former prisoners and mobilized soldiers. Most volunteers are aged 42-50, with some over 60. They often come from small towns with limited job opportunities, attracted by high military salaries and benefits. For example, Moscow offers a one-time bonus of about $22,000 for joining the army, with potential first-year earnings of $59,600. The increase in volunteer casualties is partly due to their deployment in difficult combat zones, particularly in the Donetsk region.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian state media is highlighting foreign volunteers in Ukraine to reassure domestic audiences about recruitment efforts and avoid another mobilization. TASS showed Chinese and Sri Lankan volunteers in Kursk Oblast, while a report suggests the Russian military misled 14 Ghanaians into combat roles in Donetsk Oblast, with 11 now missing. This coverage likely aims to downplay Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast and maintain Russia’s current recruitment strategy without resorting to full mobilization.
The Russian government is defending its recruitment of criminals and prisoners for the war in Ukraine, despite concerns raised by some officials. State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov dismissed worries that this practice is turning the Russian military into a criminal “gang.” This stance suggests Russia remains committed to its current recruitment strategy, known as crypto-mobilization, even though it may further erode military professionalism.
A group of 14 Ghanaian men were lured to Russia with promises of security jobs, but instead were forced into the Russian military to fight in Ukraine. Three survivors in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast appealed for help, saying they have no combat experience and want to return home. Their families have contacted Ghanaian authorities for assistance. Similar cases of foreign nationals being tricked or coerced into joining the Russian army have been reported from India, Egypt, Nepal, and Cuba, as Russia seeks to avoid further domestic mobilization.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently inspected new drone systems in St. Petersburg, including what appears to be the Shahed-236 drone. According to Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi, this new drone resembles the Shahed-136 but is painted black and has a modified nose with an optical system for autonomous target searching. This information comes from footage published by Russian state media RIA Novosti during Putin’s visit to the “Special Technology Center.”
Russian defense company Rostec announced that its subsidiary Elektromashina is finishing work on upgraded “Narval” modules, which are machine gun systems for boats. These improved modules feature better sights, control units, and computing systems. Russian forces have started installing these modules on boats in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea.
Russia’s Allies
Belarusian and Russian forces are conducting joint training exercises in Mulino, Novgorod Oblast, Russia, according to the Belarusian Ministry of Defense. The month-long exercises include tank units. Additionally, Belarusian forces reportedly launched a “Polonez-M” multiple-launch rocket system at a Russian training ground, demonstrating a range of 300 kilometers.
Russia has sought to strengthen ties with China and India to counter Western sanctions imposed due to its invasion of Ukraine. While oil exports to these countries have increased, Russia faces challenges in redirecting natural gas sales and expanding its transportation infrastructure. Despite these efforts, Russia still relies on smuggling and schemes to acquire sanctioned goods, with China and India emerging as key suppliers of dual-use items. The Kremlin has also developed covert trade links with India to obtain components for its war effort, using rupees from oil sales to finance these operations.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian officials met with International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow on September 17, where she emphasized the need for adherence to international humanitarian law and access to prisoners of war (POWs). However, Russian officials used the meeting to promote false narratives about alleged Ukrainian human rights violations, making unsubstantiated claims of “concentration camps” and deportations of Russian citizens. These accusations lack evidence and appear to be an attempt to deflect attention from documented Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Contrary to these claims, Russian authorities have admitted to creating detention centers for pro-Ukrainian residents in occupied areas. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has reportedly restricted ICRC access to its POW facilities. The Kremlin seems to be using such meetings to legitimize its occupation of Ukraine and spread misinformation, like its tactics with the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding nuclear power plants.
Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council has decided to restrict Telegram usage among government, military, and critical infrastructure officials on official devices. This move aims to protect against Russian information and surveillance operations. Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov cited evidence that Russian special services exploit Telegram data for influence operations. This decision reflects ongoing concerns about Russia’s use of social media platforms for information warfare.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com