NOTE: This is a shortened version of my daily report as I am on vacation visiting with my son. I will take the next few days off and will write again on the weekend.
Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces successfully targeted Russian military assets with drone strikes, demonstrating their ability to strike within Russian territory. This escalation of cross-border attacks raises the risk of broader conflict. Despite these Ukrainian successes, Russian forces made territorial gains in multiple regions, including Kursk Oblast. These advancements underscore the ongoing intensity of the ground war and the potential for further escalation.
The Kremlin’s centralization of volunteer recruitment efforts suggests Russia faces significant challenges in sustaining its military campaign, potentially leading to more desperate measures. This struggle for manpower could have far-reaching consequences for the conflict’s trajectory and Russia’s military capabilities.
Russia’s designation of 47 countries as having “opposing moral attitudes” signals a return to Cold War-era rhetoric, deepening the rift between Russia and the West and complicating diplomatic efforts. This ideological positioning further isolates Russia on the global stage and makes negotiation and conflict resolution more challenging.
The conflict continues to strain international relations, affect global energy markets, and test the resolve of Western support for Ukraine. As the situation remains highly volatile, there is potential for it to draw in more global actors and further destabilize international security. The ongoing developments in this conflict have wide-reaching implications for geopolitical dynamics and global stability.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian authorities have reportedly arrested Vladimir Novikov, a decorated assault detachment commander of the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade, known for his role in capturing Avdiivka and Krasnohorivka. This arrest, part of a broader trend to reduce semi-independent military innovators, has sparked appeals for his release. Reasons for his arrest are disputed, with claims ranging from his efforts to stop drug trafficking by Chechens to his independent development of counter-drone systems. Simultaneously, the Russian military is repurposing specialized units, including drone operators, for frontline infantry roles. This is highlighted by the deaths of drone operators Dmitry Lysakovsky and Sergey Gritsai in a direct assault operation in the Pokrovsk direction, resulting in 14 casualties.
These events suggest ongoing challenges with manpower shortages and command culture. The 1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade has disbanded drone detachments and is using engineers as infantry. These actions indicate the Russian command’s prioritization of maintaining offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast over preserving specialized capabilities, potentially compromising their effectiveness in niche roles. The situation reflects broader tensions between innovative field commanders and the military leadership’s centralization efforts, reminiscent of earlier conflicts with effective commanders and the dismantling of the Wagner Group.
On September 21, Petro Andryushchenko, an advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, shared satellite images showing Russian supply centers in the Berdyansk-Mariupol region. He stated that Ukrainian forces had attacked these facilities, though he didn’t specify what weapons were used.
On September 21, Russian military bloggers reported that Russian forces intercepted multiple Ukrainian missiles aimed at occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations west of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 21, but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked in Glushkovsky Raion, including south of Glushkovo near Novy Put and Medvezhye. These sources suggested that Ukrainian assaults in the area are becoming less intense.
Ukrainian forces attacked near Lyubimovka and Kamyshevka in Kursk Oblast on September 21. Despite these offensive operations, they made no confirmed advances. Russian sources reported the attacks were unsuccessful.
Russian forces recaptured territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 21. They advanced south of Kamyshevka and counterattacked near Lyubimovka, Nikolayevo-Darino, and Kremyanoye. Russian units also attacked towards Kremyanoye, Vetreno, Darino, and Pogrebki. Russia reinforced the area with additional troops and artillery, repaired bridges, and intensified aerial bombing. Fighting continues in multiple locations along the salient.
Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone strikes on Russian military facilities in Russia on September 20-21. The attacks targeted missile and ammunition storage sites in Krasnodar Krai and Tver Oblast, as well as Shaykovka Airfield in Kaluga Oblast. The strikes caused explosions and fires at the Tikhoretsk Arsenal and the 23rd Arsenal, with the former reportedly containing North Korean munitions. Russian authorities claimed to have intercepted 101 Ukrainian drones and evacuated about 1,200 civilians near the Tikhoretsk Arsenal. These attacks follow a recent strike on another Russian arsenal, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities in Russian munitions storage.
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian Podlet K1 mobile radar system near the Tikhoretsk Arsenal during recent attacks. This sophisticated radar can detect up to 200 aerial targets at ranges up to 300 kilometers and is crucial for Russian air defenses. It’s at least the fifth such system Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed since February 2022, with previous incidents in Kherson Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and other locations. These losses may impact Russian air defense capabilities.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made small advances north of Kharkiv City, particularly near Hlyboke. Fighting continues around Lyptsi and Vovchansk. A Ukrainian report claims Chechen “Akhmat” units were deployed to compel Russian soldiers to advance, with authority to punish or execute those who refuse to fight.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces likely captured Kyslivka southeast of Kupyansk and reportedly took Nevske northwest of Kreminna on September 21. Fighting continues along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with Russian attacks near several settlements including Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Novosadove, Zarichne, Hrekivka, and Torske. The situation in Nevske and Makiivka remains unclear, with conflicting reports about Russian control.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces continued attacks near Vyimka, southeast of Siversk, on September 20-21, but made no confirmed progress.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar and surrounding areas on September 20-21 but made no advances. They targeted Kalynivka, Mayske, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Bila Hora. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian infantry is now relying on small vehicles like buggies and motorcycles for attacks due to significant equipment losses.
Toretsk
Russian forces made small advances in central Toretsk and Leonidivka, as shown by recent footage. They continued attacks near Toretsk, including in Dachne, Nelipivka, and towards Shcherbynivka. Russian sources claim progress along specific streets in central Toretsk.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces attacked east and southeast of Pokrovsk on September 21, without confirmed gains. Russian sources claim advances near Hrodivka, Mykolaivka, and Ukrainsk, but these are unconfirmed. Attacks continued in multiple settlements around Pokrovsk. One Russian source suggests a shift from frontal assaults to encirclement tactics, especially near Hirnyk and Selydove.
West of Donetsk City
On September 19, Russian forces launched a large, mechanized assault near Maksymilyanivka, west of Donetsk City, using 52 armored vehicles. Ukrainian forces reported destroying or damaging several Russian vehicles. Despite this and continued attacks on September 21, including near Heorhiivka and Oleksandrivka, no confirmed Russian advances were reported.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced northeast of Prechystivka, with elements of the 5th Tank Brigade involved. A large mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka used 35 armored vehicles and nine tanks, but Ukrainian forces reported repelling it and destroying five Russian vehicles. Russian attacks continued near several settlements including Vuhledar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
On September 21, there were no reports of combat in the area along the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts, according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources.
Zaporizhia Line
Fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast from September 20-21. Russian forces attacked near Hulyaipole, while battles took place around Robotyne, Novoandriivka, Lobkove, and Mala Tokmachka. A North Ossetian battalion reportedly fought towards Orikhiv. Russian official Vladimir Rogov claimed air defenses shot down two Ukrainian bombs targeting Tokmak.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
On September 20 and 21, ongoing battles continued on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, with neither side making significant territorial gains.
Ukraine News
Overnight on September 20-21, Russia launched 25 missiles and drones at Ukraine. This included 4 ballistic missiles towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 5 guided missiles over Zaporizhia Oblast, and 16 Shahed drones from various locations. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted 16 of these, while electronic warfare disrupted 5 more. Russian sources claimed strikes on military targets in Kryvyi Rih.
Russia News
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has approved a list of 47 countries deemed to have “destructive attitudes” conflicting with Russian values. This move follows a presidential decree easing immigration for those rejecting “destructive neoliberal values” in their home countries. The list includes many Western and allied nations supporting Ukraine, but notably excludes Slovakia, Hungary, Turkey, Moldova, and Georgia. This action reflects a revival of Soviet-era tactics, creating ideological divisions globally while accusing the West of the same. It aligns with Russia’s recent efforts to establish Eurasian security forums excluding the West and attempts to codify a state ideology based on “traditional values,” despite constitutional prohibitions. This development highlights Russia’s increasing emphasis on ideological separation in international relations.
A prominent Russian military blogger, Mikhail Zvinchuk, has characterized the war in Ukraine as a “strange under-war” primarily operating on a political level. In an interview with Belarusian state media, Zvinchuk suggested that the West’s main goal is not to achieve a strategic military defeat of Russia, but rather to secure domestic political advantages. He argued that if the West truly aimed to defeat Russia, it would have provided Ukraine with more weapons and greater NATO involvement. Zvinchuk claimed that the West’s slow and limited support has allowed Russia time to strengthen its defenses. He also falsely asserted that Ukraine is merely a testing ground for Western AI and command systems. This perspective, along with Western hesitation in approving certain weapon uses, may reinforce the Kremlin’s belief that it can outlast Western support for Ukraine. However, Western policymakers still have the capacity to challenge this assessment through their actions.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1500
642420 |
Tanks +22
8768 |
Artillery +63
18333 |
Arm.VEH +52
17222 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
328 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin has created a new commission, led by Dmitry Medvedev, to centralize volunteer recruitment for the military. This shift from regional to federal efforts, formalized by a decree on September 20, indicates Russia’s struggle to meet manpower needs for the war in Ukraine, despite claims of increased volunteer interest after a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. The commission will coordinate recruitment across all government levels, focusing on improving selection processes and incentives for contract servicemembers. Despite increased one-time payments offered by 36 Russian regions, recruitment quotas are reportedly falling short by about one-third. The Russian Defense Ministry claims to recruit 1,000 people daily, while an unnamed Western official estimates Russian forces are suffering roughly 1,000 casualties per day. This centralization aims to improve recruitment rates and maintain current offensive operations in Ukraine, with Putin favoring voluntary recruitment over involuntary mobilization. However, significantly increasing recruitment or reducing casualties may be necessary to intensify operations.
Russia’s Allies
Iran reportedly supplied Russia with Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles but withheld the associated mobile launchers. This decision likely prioritizes sending more missiles over bulky launchers, which Russia can potentially replace with modified Russian-made vehicles. The arrangement allows for more discreet transfers and easier denial of Iranian involvement in the Russian war effort. Both Russia and Iran continue to deny these missile transfers, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissing US claims as “fables.” This development highlights the ongoing international concerns about military cooperation between Iran and Russia in the context of the Ukrainian conflict.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com