Summary of the Day:
Russian forces have suffered substantial losses in Pokrovsk Raion since October 2023, reportedly losing at least five divisions’ worth of armored vehicles and tanks. These losses occurred during the offensive to seize Avdiivka and subsequent operations in western Donetsk Oblast. Despite this significant equipment loss, Russian forces have recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk.
The scale of vehicle losses may become unsustainable for Russia in the coming months and years. Constraints in Russia’s defense industrial production, limits to Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles, and the failure to achieve significant territorial gains through mechanized maneuver are putting pressure on the Russian military command.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials continue to document and prosecute Russian war crimes committed against Ukrainian forces. In a separate development, Russian authorities reportedly arrested the administrator of the Telegram channel “Thirteenth” on October 5. The administrator had previously criticized the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense, potentially signaling a crackdown on dissenting voices within Russia’s information space.
Picture of the Day:
A Ukrainian communal worker repairs cables on the site of shelling in a village in the eastern Donetsk Oblast amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images)
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted three Russian command posts using Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles and GMLRS rockets, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The strikes hit command posts of the 35th and 27th separate motor rifle brigades and the 2nd Combined Arms Army. While specific locations and dates were not provided, the attacks used U.S.-supplied GMLRS rockets with a 70-kilometer range and British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles with a range up to 250 kilometers. Ukraine has previously used these weapons to strike targets in occupied territories and Crimea. The country continues to advocate for permission to use Western-supplied long-range weapons on Russian territory, while also conducting strikes with domestically-produced weapons, including recent drone attacks on ammunition depots in the Russian towns of Tikhoretsk and Toropets.
Russian forces have amassed significant equipment for assaults in Ukraine, but mounting losses and limited production capacity may soon force a strategic rethink. The Russian military’s pursuit of minor tactical gains at the cost of substantial vehicle losses is unsustainable long-term, especially as Soviet-era equipment stocks dwindle. Without shifting to a full wartime economy and boosting defense production—steps President Putin has so far avoided—Russia may struggle to adequately supply its units in the coming months and years.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the main salient in Kursk Oblast, attacking near Lyubimovka and Plekhovo, but made no confirmed advances. They also conducted assaults in Glushkovsky Raion, including near Novyi Put and Veseloye without confirmed progress. Russian forces launched counterattacks in the same area, particularly near Novyi Put, Veseloye, and Medvezhye. A Russian source claimed advances by Russian forces near Veseloye, but this remains unconfirmed. Neither side has made significant territorial gains in these areas.
Russian forces made confirmed advances in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage shows Russian troops advancing east of Kremyanoye and southeast of Zhuravli, both located east of Korenevo. Russian forces also continued assaults near Daryino, Nikolayevo-Darino, Lyubimovka, and Plekhovo. A Russian source claimed an advance near Plekhovo, but this remains unconfirmed. Russian drone operators from the “Smuglyanka” Detachment are reportedly active near Kremyanoye. These developments indicate ongoing Russian efforts to push back Ukrainian positions in the area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast without making confirmed advances. They attacked areas north and northeast of Kharkiv City, including Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Starytsya. Reports indicate that Russian forces are rotating personnel near Hlyboke and fortifying positions near Lukyantsi. A Ukrainian spokesperson noted that the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment in the area is primarily staffed with poorly trained convicts but is well-equipped with technology, including electronic warfare systems.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. They launched assaults in numerous areas, including near Synkivka, Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, and several other settlements. A Russian source claimed advances near Hlushkivka and Kruhlyakivka, but these remain unconfirmed. Despite the widespread attacks, no significant territorial changes were reported.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have suffered substantial armored vehicle losses in western Donetsk Oblast since October 2023, particularly during offensives near Avdiivka and Donetsk City. These losses, estimated at over five divisions’ worth of equipment, have yielded only minor territorial gains of about 40 km. Experts suggest Russia’s current rate of vehicle loss may be unsustainable given its limited production capacity and dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles. Despite attempts to adapt tactics, Russian forces continue to conduct largely unsuccessful mechanized assaults, reportedly losing up to 90% of vehicles used in some operations. This high attrition rate poses a significant challenge for Russia’s long-term military strategy in Ukraine.
Siversk
Russian forces launched offensive operations near Siversk. The attacks focused on areas northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka and east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske. Despite these efforts, no confirmed changes to the frontline in this region were reported.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar. The attacks targeted areas north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka and Hryhorivka, as well as south of Chasiv Yar near Stupochky and Bila Hora.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued attacking near Toretsk but made no confirmed gains. They launched offensives northeast of Toretsk near Dachne, in Toretsk itself, and southwest towards Shcherbynivka. A Russian military blogger claimed advances in central Toretsk, but this remains unconfirmed.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced southeast of Pokrovsk, with confirmed progress southwest of Novohrodivka. They continued attacks near several settlements including Myrnohrad, Novotoretske, and Selydove. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian troops captured Tsukuryne. A Ukrainian officer noted increased Russian use of armored vehicles, artillery, and drones in the area, as well as troop rotations and reinforcements near Selydove.
Footage showed Ukrainian forces striking a reported Russian command post in Avdiivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported using Storm Shadow missiles and GMLRS to hit command posts of several Russian brigades, including units recently active in the Pokrovsk area.
Since October 2023, Russian forces have suffered significant losses in Pokrovsk Raion during their offensive to capture Avdiivka and subsequent operations in western Donetsk Oblast. An open-source analyst reported on October 4 that Russia has lost 1,830 pieces of heavy equipment in the area, including 539 tanks and 1,020 infantry fighting vehicles. These losses, equivalent to several divisions’ worth of armored vehicles, occurred primarily during the Avdiivka offensive and continued assaults west of Avdiivka and around Donetsk City. The actual number of Russian vehicle losses is likely higher than reported, as not all losses are visually documented.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks near Maksymilyanivka, Hostre, and Ostrivske, west of Donetsk City, without confirmed advances. Unverified claims suggest Russian progress in Ostrivske and Maksymilyanivka. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported Russian forces in the Kurakhove area are accumulating troops and vehicles for intense but brief assaults, noting a decline in Russian combat quality.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked southwest of Donetsk City on October 6, with unconfirmed claims of advances north of Vuhledar towards Bohoiavlenka. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian assault near Kostyantynivka, destroying several vehicles. Russian operations continued near Katerynivka, Antonivka, Vuhledar, and other settlements. Donetsk occupation head Denis Pushilin awarded Russian troops for their role in capturing Vuhledar.
A Russian S-70 stealth drone was downed near Kostyantynivka. Russian sources debated whether it was accidental friendly fire or intentional to prevent Ukrainian capture of advanced technology. Some claimed Russia later struck the crash site with a missile to destroy evidence, but this remains unverified.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Are
The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian forces launched ground attacks near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. The assaults targeted the areas around Novodarivka and Poltavka, both located southwest of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast, particularly north of Robotyne towards Novodanylivka. While no frontline changes were confirmed, a Ukrainian spokesperson reported that fresh Russian assault groups are gathering near Robotyne, likely planning renewed attacks soon. The Russians are using small groups with fast, unarmored vehicles like motorcycles and ATVs to quickly strike Ukrainian positions while avoiding minefields.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched two attacks in the Kherson direction. These assaults likely occurred in areas on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, though specific locations were not provided.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine using various missiles and 87 Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted 58 projectiles and disrupted 25 drones with electronic warfare across multiple regions. The attack targeted Odesa City, damaging a warehouse, causing a gas leak, and hitting a civilian ship. Russian sources claimed strikes on military and infrastructure targets in Odesa, though these claims were not independently verified.
Russian forces are increasingly using diverse drone types in attacks on Ukraine, not just the familiar Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Former Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat reported that unspecified drone models were used alongside Shaheds in recent attacks. Russia has intensified drone strikes, targeting Ukrainian cities and towns daily throughout September and into October. The U.K. Defense Ministry noted that Russia has begun domestic production of Shahed-type drones. Additionally, Russia has introduced new, cheaply-made drones to identify air defense systems and act as decoys, according to Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Cherniak. A new drone type called Gerbera has also been observed in limited numbers.
Ukrainian officials are actively investigating and prosecuting Russian war crimes. Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office Head Oleksandr Filchakov announced an investigation into the execution of four Ukrainian prisoners of war at the Vovchansk aggregate plant in Summer 2024. The investigation is based on testimony from Russian POWs in Ukrainian custody. Filchakov indicated that the perpetrator might already be detained, potentially enabling a fair trial for this war crime.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 7
Russian forces attacked a passenger bus in the Richky community of Ukraine’s Sumy district using a drone-dropped explosive. The incident, reported by the Sumy Oblast Military Administration resulted in injuries to three civilians and damage to the bus.
Russian forces launched a drone attack on the Dnipro district of Kherson injuring four civilians. Three victims—a 55-year-old man and two women aged 65 and 70—were hospitalized with blast and shrapnel injuries. A 60-year-old man also suffered a shoulder wound. All victims are receiving medical care.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry released a video showing a “dragon drone” destroying a Russian tank. The drone, equipped with thermite, a highly incendiary material, was seen spraying molten metal onto the vehicle, setting it ablaze. This new type of drone was first observed in early September, with Ukraine’s Defense Ministry confirming its use. Thermite weapons can burn at over 2,000 degrees Celsius, potentially melting armored vehicles and causing severe injuries. Both Ukraine and Russia have heavily invested in drone technology throughout the war, with drones becoming crucial for Ukrainian forces to strike targets deep behind enemy lines.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Zelensky will attend the 25th Ramstein meeting, also known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, in Germany on October 12, gathering over 50 of Ukraine’s allies, including President Biden. This high-level military support meeting comes at a critical time before the US presidential election. Zelensky plans to present Ukraine’s victory plan, a five-point strategy previously discussed with U.S. leaders, which includes military and diplomatic elements aimed at ending the war justly and seeks continued international support. The U.S. State Department has reviewed the plan, noting it involves actions from both Ukraine and other countries. This leader-level gathering marks a significant step in Ukraine’s efforts to secure international support and pressure Russia towards a just peace, with Zelensky set to present steps towards ending the war.
Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested in an Oct. 4 interview that Ukraine could potentially join NATO even if parts of its territory remain occupied by Russia. He proposed that NATO’s Article 5 protection could apply to a defined area under Ukrainian control, not necessarily the entire internationally recognized border. This approach could address concerns about immediately drawing NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Stoltenberg cited historical examples like West Germany’s NATO membership during the Cold War. Currently, Russia controls about 27% of Ukrainian territory, including parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as Crimea. While Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, formal invitation is pending. Stoltenberg also expressed regret about not providing Ukraine with more military support earlier, both before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion.
A delegation of five U.S. Republican senators visited Hungary from Oct. 3-5, expressing concerns about Hungary’s growing ties with Russia and China. U.S. Ambassador David Pressman released a statement highlighting these worries and calling for Hungary to align more closely with its allies. Hungary, under Prime Minister Orban, has maintained friendly relations with Russia, opposed aid to Ukraine, and recently met with leaders from Russia, China, and former U.S. President Trump, drawing criticism from the EU and Ukraine.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1250
660470 |
Tanks +3
8919 |
Artillery +55
19092 |
Arm. VEH +21
17679 |
Aircraft
368 |
Heli
328 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian media reports that Moscow is developing new drones to replace the Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 reconnaissance aircraft. Roman Ivanov, chief designer at the “Special Technology Center,” revealed that the project began before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine but has been slowed by other priorities. The new drones will incorporate improvements requested by the Russian Ministry of Defense, likely including extended range, longer endurance, and increased payload capacity. The Orlan-10, first flown in 2010, has been used in Ukraine since 2014. It’s a small drone weighing 14 kg with a 3-meter wingspan, capable of flying for up to 16 hours at altitudes of 5,000 meters. The Orlan can be operated from up to 120 km away and is used for artillery direction and reconnaissance, with recent modifications allowing it to drop munitions.
Russian military bloggers shared footage claiming to show a new kamikaze drone, called “Prince Vandal Novgorodsky,” attacking Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. This drone is reportedly controlled by a fiber-optic cable, making it resistant to electronic warfare at low altitudes, though this limits its range.
Russia’s Allies
Ukrainian official Andriy Kovalenko reported that a small group of North Korean military engineers are working in occupied Donetsk Oblast. These personnel are reportedly improving low-quality North Korean ammunition supplied to Russian forces, assisting with cargo transport, tracking ammunition shortages, and monitoring Russian ammunition use in Ukraine.
North Korea has become Russia’s leading outside weapons supplier in its war against Ukraine, according to Western intelligence sources reported by The Times on Oct. 4. Pyongyang is reportedly supplying about 3 million artillery shells annually to Moscow, accounting for half of Russia’s artillery usage in Ukraine. This significant ammunition supply has aided Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, including the recent capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. In exchange, Russia is allegedly providing North Korea with technology for spy satellites, tanks, and aircraft. The partnership was solidified during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June, where he signed an agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. However, the reliability of North Korean ammunition has been questioned, with reports of malfunctioning missiles and faulty shells.
Belarus’ Interior Ministry reported detaining a resident of Kalinkovichi, Gomel Oblast for sharing footage of a Russian Shahed drone falling in Belarusian airspace. The ministry accused the individual of cooperating with “extremist resources” by providing information to certain Telegram channels. This marks the first known instance of Belarusian authorities arresting a civilian for publishing such footage.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian authorities reportedly arrested Yegor Guzenko, administrator of the Telegram channel “Thirteenth,” known for criticizing the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense. Guzenko was detained at a concert in Novopavlovsk, Stavropol Krai. The reasons for his arrest are unclear, with speculation ranging from refusing a drug test to violating a previous house arrest order. This arrest may be part of a broader Kremlin effort to control critical voices within the ultranationalist information space, though the direct connection is not yet confirmed.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com