Israel Has Delivered Early Warning Missile System to Ukraine – Day 957 (October 7, 2024)

Summary of the Day:

Ukrainian forces struck an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea on October 6-7, causing a fire. The facility is reportedly the largest oil terminal in occupied Crimea and is used by Russia to supply its military. Occupation authorities acknowledged the fire but denied an oil spill.

Ukrainian authorities are investigating new evidence of Russian forces abusing and executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Niu York, Donetsk Oblast. Aerial footage showed Russian soldiers torturing and killing three unarmed Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian officials report documenting 93 POW executions since the invasion began, with 80% occurring in 2024.

Russian state media reported a major cyberattack on October 7, disrupting multiple television and radio channels. A hacker group allegedly linked to Ukraine claimed responsibility. The attack reportedly deleted backup information, though Russian authorities claimed no significant damage occurred.

Russian forces have recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Picture of the Day:

a statue of a man in front of a damaged buildingParamedics of the volunteer medical battalion Hospitallers treat Ukrainian servicemen wounded in fighting in Donetsk Oblast on a medical evacuation bus driving to a hospital. (Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty Images)

Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War

Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has been shifting towards a more pro-Russian stance, despite claiming commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration. The party’s recent actions, including the reintroduction of a “foreign agents” law inspired by Russia, have raised concerns about Georgia’s democratic backsliding. The government has adopted rhetoric like pro-Kremlin parties, portraying Western criticism as interference in Georgia’s sovereignty. This shift comes amid Russia’s ongoing occupation of 20% of Georgian territory. With upcoming elections, the country faces a crucial decision between continuing its path towards the West or potentially aligning more closely with Russia, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has recently offered to help “normalize relations” with Georgia’s occupied regions.

Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout is reportedly negotiating a $10 million small arms deal with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants. Bout, released in 2022 in a prisoner exchange for U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner, was previously imprisoned in the U.S. for arms trafficking. The potential deal, which excludes anti-ship and anti-air missiles, comes as Houthis continue attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea in response to Israel’s operation in Gaza. Iran is also reportedly mediating a separate deal for Russian missile supplies to the Houthis.

The Path to Peace

Vice President Kamala Harris, in a recent “60 Minutes” interview, stated that if elected president, she would not engage in bilateral peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukraine’s involvement. Harris emphasized Ukraine’s right to have a say in its future and criticized former President Donald Trump’s approach to the Ukraine crisis. She also addressed Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, saying it would be considered when appropriate, while reaffirming the current focus on supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Ukrainian authorities are investigating new evidence of Russian forces abusing and executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Niu York, Donetsk Oblast. Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets reported this to the UN and ICRC after aerial footage showed Russian soldiers torturing and killing three unarmed Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian officials state that 93 POW executions have been documented since the invasion began, with 80% occurring in 2024. These actions violate the Geneva Convention, which prohibits the mistreatment and execution of POWs. Ukrainian authorities suggest these war crimes are systemic and tolerated by Russian military leadership.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on an oil terminal in Russian-occupied Feodosia, Crimea, causing significant damage and a large fire. The strike targeted the JSC Marine Oil Terminal, the largest oil facility in occupied Crimea, which Russia uses to supply its military. The attack occurred around 4:30 a.m. local time, with residents reporting explosions. At least two fuel storage reservoirs were destroyed, with two others still burning. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the strike, while the occupation mayor acknowledged the fire but denied an oil spill. This attack could impact fuel supplies for both civilians and Russian military forces in the region and is part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to damage Russia’s oil industry, a key source of funding for the war.

Prior to the Feodosia strike, Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted Russian military bases near Saki and Belbek airfields in Crimea, as well as areas near Berdiansk on the Azov Sea coast. A local source claimed Russia had deployed air defense systems to protect the terminal in June 2024. No casualties were reported in the Feodosia attack, and footage of the fire was published.

A large smoke billowing from a fire

Description automatically generatedA burning oil depot following a strike against Feodosia in occupied Crimea, Ukraine. (General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russian Telegram channels)

Ukraine’s military intelligence reported successfully sabotaging the Russian Baltic Fleet minesweeper Alexander Obukhov in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad, causing severe damage due to water leaking into its engine through a mysterious hole. This marks the second sabotage of a Russian warship in Kaliningrad, following an April incident involving the missile ship Serpukhov, with the damage to Alexander Obukhov expected to be difficult and expensive to repair.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None

Ukrainian forces made progress near Obukhovka in Kursk Oblast as shown by recent footage. They reportedly attacked several areas including Kremyanoye, Lyubimovka, Plekhovo, and Kamyshevka continuing their operations in the region.

Ukrainian forces continued attacks near Veseloye in Glushkovsky Raion, west of their main position in Kursk Oblast. No confirmed advances were made.

Russian forces made progress in Lyubimovka, southeast of Korenevo, in Kursk Oblast, as shown by recent footage. Russian sources reported ongoing fighting near Uspenivka and Kremyanoye in the same area.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces advanced in central Vovchansk, northern Kharkiv Oblast, as shown in footage from September 27. They reportedly attacked near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Starytsya. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that Russia used over 100 armored vehicles in Vovchansk attacks last week, along with increased air and drone operations in the area.

Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade reported that they successfully rescued captured Ukrainian soldiers and regained positions near Borova, Kharkiv Oblast. The incident occurred when a Russian sabotage group captured four Ukrainian soldiers. The 3rd Brigade quickly responded, intercepting the Russian unit and enabling the captives to escape. During this engagement, Ukrainian forces also managed to push back Russian troops and reclaim lost territory.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces advanced near Svatove, reportedly capturing Myasozharivka. They attacked multiple locations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including Synkivka, Kucherivka, and areas near Kreminna. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that Russian forces are conducting about 12 small infantry assaults daily in the Luhansk direction, with occasional mechanized attacks.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Ukrainian officials report that North Korean troops have been deployed to the Donetsk region in Ukraine. Their primary role is to monitor and record defects in the ammunition North Korea has supplied to Russia. Andrii Kovalenko from Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation stated that these troops are mainly engineers who accompany ammunition deliveries and observe how the Russian army uses them. Reports suggest that much of the North Korean ammunition, including artillery rounds and short-range ballistic missiles, is of poor quality. A recent Ukrainian missile strike in Donetsk reportedly killed 20 troops, including six North Koreans, who may have been part of this monitoring team.

Siversk

Russian forces continued attacking near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk. No confirmed frontline changes were reported. A Ukrainian spokesperson stated that Russia is using armored vehicles in assaults in the Siversk area.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar and in nearby areas like Bila Hora and Stupochky with no confirmed frontline changes. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that Russia is conducting small infantry assaults without armored support near Chasiv Yar. Russian airborne units are reportedly active in the area.

Toretsk

Russian forces attacked near Toretsk and surrounding areas like Dyliivka, Niu York, and Nelipivka with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claimed advances in central Toretsk, including along Rudnychna and Torhova streets, but these claims lack visual confirmation.

Pokrovsk

Russian forces reportedly captured Tsukuryne, southeast of Pokrovsk. They claimed to have seized Hrodivka, but this lacks visual confirmation. Russian sources also reported advances near several settlements east and southeast of Pokrovsk, including Novohrodivka, Lysivka, and Selydove. Attacks continued in multiple areas around Pokrovsk, but many claims remain unverified.

West of Donetsk City

Russian forces reportedly advanced west of Donetsk City, capturing half of Maksymilyanivka. They allegedly seized western Hostre and are advancing towards the Ostrivske railway line, though this is unconfirmed. Attacks continued near Hostre, Ostrivske, and Heorhiivka. Russian units from the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment are reportedly active in the Kurakhove direction.

Southwest of Donetsk City

Russian forces made a small advance southwest of Donetsk City with Russian forces pushing into western Zolota Nyva. They continued attacks near Kostyantynivka, Bohoyavlenka, and other nearby areas. Various Russian units reportedly participated in capturing Vuhledar. A Ukrainian counterattack was claimed near Katerynivka.

Colonel Oleksandr Okhrimenko has been appointed as the new commander of Ukraine’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade, replacing Ivan Vinnik. This change comes after the brigade’s withdrawal from Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Okhrimenko, a veteran of the Donbas conflict since 2014, previously led the 14th Mechanized Brigade and the Odesa Oblast enlistment office. The 72nd Brigade has moved to a new defense line after leaving Vuhledar, which they had defended for over two years against Russian forces. The change in command has sparked some controversy, with lawmaker Mariana Bezuhla criticizing the decision.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia

Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area

There were no reported ground attacks in the area bordering Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts, according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources.

Zaporizhia Line

Ukraine reported Russian ground attacks near Robotyne. Russian sources claim their troops are disrupting Ukrainian Starlink systems in the Zaporizhia area, likely using electronic warfare. Russian aviation reportedly struck Ukrainian forces near Orikhiv with FAB-1500 bombs. The Russian forces continue operations near Polohy and Hulyaipole.

Russian sources reported increased activity near Kamyanske, Zaporizhia Oblast, after a lull following Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive. Geolocated footage shows minor Russian advances near Kamyanske and Plavni on the Kakhovka Reservoir’s eastern shore. Russian milbloggers claim their forces counterattacked, advancing north of the dried reservoir west of Kamyanske. While Russian forces reportedly repelled a Ukrainian attack, the Russian advance remains tactical, and the situation in western Zaporizhia Oblast is unclear.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling Russian attacks in unspecified areas of the Kherson direction. These attacks likely occurred in eastern Kherson Oblast, on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

Ukraine News

Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine, utilizing over 80 drones and missiles, including Iskander-M, Kh-59, and Kinzhal missiles, as well as Shahed drones. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted multiple threats across several regions, including Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv. In Kyiv, all missiles targeting the capital were shot down, though debris caused minor damage in the Solomianskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, and Holosiivskyi districts. Ukraine claimed to have downed two Kinzhal missiles and 32 drones across multiple oblasts, while electronic warfare disrupted 37 more drones.

One Kinzhal missile struck Starokostiantyniv Air Base in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and attacks also hit Pavlohrad. Russian sources claim they hit a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Pivdennyi Port in Odesa Oblast. The missile attack on Kyiv occurred with Kinzhal missiles fired from MiG-31K aircraft. Despite the widespread nature of the attacks, no casualties were reported in Kyiv. This large-scale assault highlights the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the continued targeting of both military and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine.

Ukraine’s parliament has banned officials from using Telegram on work devices due to national security concerns. The decision follows a recommendation by Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, prompted by worries about data security on the app founded by Russian businessman Pavel Durov. Officials can still use Telegram for personal communication on private devices. The move comes after reports of fake messages sent from Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk’s unused account. Telegram’s popularity in Ukraine has grown since the 2022 invasion, but concerns have risen about its security and Durov’s frequent visits to Russia.

Pope Francis appointed Bishop Mykola Bychok, head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church in Australia, to the College of Cardinals. At 44, Bychok will be the youngest and only Ukrainian cardinal. The Pope also nominated 20 other new members, expanding the College to 142. The appointments, particularly Bychok’s, are seen as a subtle political message amid Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia. The Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Ukraine’s second-largest Christian denomination, follows many Orthodox practices while remaining under papal jurisdiction.

Innocent Victims Of War

The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)

DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 28+

Russian forces launched an airstrike on Kherson, injuring at least 20 people, including two children. The attack involved four KAB bombs dropped in the central and northern parts of the city, damaging at least six multi-story buildings. The same day, Russia fired two Kinzhal missiles at Kyiv Oblast, which were intercepted. While falling debris caused some damage in Kyiv, no casualties were reported there.

Russian forces attacked Zaporizhzhia city and the surrounding region injuring three employees at targeted infrastructure facilities.

Russian forces attacked a civilian cargo ship, the Paresa, at Pivdennyi Port in Odesa Oblast. The vessel, carrying 6,000 tons of Ukrainian corn for export, was damaged. The ship flies the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis and had 15 crew members, including Egyptian and Syrian citizens. No injuries were reported.

Russian forces attacked another foreign civilian ship flying the Palau flag in Odesa. The strike killed a 60-year-old Ukrainian port employee and injured five foreign nationals. Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported the incident, which highlights the ongoing danger to civilian maritime operations in the area.

A building with a broken wall

Description automatically generated with medium confidenceA building damaged following a Russian attack against Kherson, Ukraine. (Kherson Oblast Military Administration/Telegram)

Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base

Ukraine’s Allies

Israel has delivered the Tzeva Adom (Red Light) missile warning system to Ukraine after months of preparation. This system can detect and track missile, rocket, and drone launches, calculating their likely impact points and times. Ukraine is responsible for implementing and integrating the system with its existing air defense. Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevhen Korniychuk stated that trials began in early 2023, with the goal of deploying it in major cities to protect critical infrastructure. While some are questioning the delay in making the system operational, officials have not provided details, likely for security reasons. The complex system is expected to significantly enhance Ukraine’s missile defense capabilities.

French avionics companies Thales and Safran have been implicated in helping Russia bypass Western sanctions through Kazakh intermediaries. Thales responded promptly, denying direct involvement and moving to suspend contracts with the Kazakh entities. Safran’s response was less clear, declining to provide specific details about its business in Kazakhstan. The issue centers on the maintenance of Russian Su-30SM fighter aircraft, which rely on French-made avionics. This situation highlights the ongoing challenge of enforcing sanctions against Russia and the importance of monitoring third-party involvement in supplying critical military equipment.

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans announced that the first batch of F-16 jets are now operating in Ukraine, primarily for air defense. The Netherlands pledged 400 million euros for drone production, with some to be made in Ukraine. Brekelmans discussed Ukraine’s NATO bid and the upcoming Ramstein meeting but cautioned against high expectations. He acknowledged delays in weapons deliveries to Ukraine, noting that allies are providing “enough to fight but not enough to win.” Brekelmans emphasized the need for faster action and increased defense production among European countries to support Ukraine effectively.

Ukraine and Slovakia are collaborating to create an energy hub for Eastern Europe’s energy security. Slovakia has become a major electricity supplier to Ukraine during Russian-caused blackouts. The two countries plan to modernize the Mukachevo — Velke Kapusany electrical interconnector by 2028 and cooperate on gas storage and nuclear energy. Slovakia will provide 500,000 euros for Ukraine’s energy needs and infrastructure restoration. Ukraine confirmed it won’t extend the Russian gas transit deal expiring in December 2024, acknowledging some countries’ dependence on Russian gas but encouraging supply diversification.

Russia News

Russian state media reported a major cyberattack on October 7, affecting multiple state television and radio channels. The All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) called it “unprecedented,” with broadcasts of Rossiya-1, Rossiya-24, and other channels disrupted. A hacker group allegedly linked to Ukraine, “sudo rm -RF,” claimed responsibility. The attack reportedly deleted backup information, though VGTRK claimed no significant damage. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described it as an attack on Russian critical infrastructure.

A Moscow court has sentenced 72-year-old American Stephen James Hubbard to nearly seven years in prison for allegedly fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine. Hubbard, who had lived in Ukraine since 2014, reportedly joined a territorial defense unit in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, after Russia’s 2022 invasion. He was later captured by Russian forces. The court accused him of agreeing to fight for $1,000 per month and ordered the confiscation of his earnings. Hubbard’s family has questioned his confession, citing his age and pro-Russian views. The U.S. embassy in Moscow is aware of the case, which is expected to be appealed.

On Vladimir Putin’s 72nd birthday, ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin hailed him as “Tsar” on Telegram. Dugin, a key figure in Russia’s turn towards hardline nationalism and a supporter of the invasion of Ukraine, is wanted in Ukraine for genocide and threatening territorial integrity. Putin, recently re-elected in a controversial vote, is set to become Russia’s longest-serving ruler in over 200 years. His main political opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in prison shortly before the election.

President Vladimir Putin has reportedly stopped visiting his Sochi residence, Bocharov Ruchey, due to concerns over potential drone attacks. According to the Russian media outlet Proekt, Putin hasn’t been to the residence since March, breaking his tradition of spending at least 30 days there annually. The decision reportedly stems from multiple drone attacks targeting Sochi in late 2023. The main building of the residence has been demolished and is under reconstruction. This change has affected Putin’s personal plans, including celebrating his partner Alina Kabayeva’s birthday at the Black Sea location.

Russian pro-war blogger Yegor Guzenko, known for his Telegram channel “Trinadtsaty,” has been placed in custody for allegedly using violence against a police officer. Guzenko, who has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and participated in conflicts in Donetsk and Syria, recently criticized Russian authorities over the arrest of ex-warlord Igor Girkin. He was detained on October 5 in Novopavlovsk, with conflicting reports about the circumstances of his arrest. This follows his previous prosecution for hooliganism in 2022.

Russian War Losses (Today/Total)

Troops +1340

troops

662970

Tanks +7

tanks

8940

Artillery +47

artillery

19203

Arm. VEH +30

armd-veh

17740

Aircraft

aircrafts

368

Heli

helicopters

328

Ships

ships

28

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Russian authorities are intensifying financial incentives for military recruits, with Belgorod Oblast Head Vyacheslav Gladkov announcing on October 7 a record-high signing bonus of 3 million rubles (about $31,103-$31,200) for new volunteers and contract personnel. This offer, the highest reported nationwide, applies to enlistments between October 7, 2023, and the end of 2024, significantly exceeding the average monthly wage in Russia of around 65,000 rubles ($735). The increased payments are part of a broader trend among regional authorities to attract recruits and avoid potential future mobilization, targeting economically weaker regions and migrants instead of implementing a wide-scale draft. Ukraine estimates that Russia covertly recruits about 30,000 soldiers monthly to offset high losses in Ukraine, highlighting the ongoing efforts to replenish military forces.

Another incentive is the possibility of a government job after service. Russian officials plan to increase the number of Ukraine war veterans in local and regional government positions. By 2026, at least 50 veterans are expected to become mayors and governors through the “Time of Heroes” program, according to reports citing sources close to the Kremlin.

Russia’s Allies

Iran’s recent large-scale aerial attack on Israel, involving 180 ballistic missiles, has raised questions about its impact on Iran’s missile supply to Russia. Experts suggest that the short-range Fath-360 missiles Iran is sending to Russia for use in Ukraine are different from the longer-range missiles used against Israel. While immediate effects on Russia’s supply are unlikely, two factors could cause future issues: Iran might prioritize supplying its proxy militias in the Middle East, and increased production of longer-range missiles could create bottlenecks for short-range missile production. The situation remains uncertain as both conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to develop.

North Korea has rejected NATO’s criticism of its cooperation with Russia and threatened the alliance with “tragic consequences.” NATO accused North Korea and Iran of supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine by providing weapons. North Korea denies these claims, defending its right to cooperate with other nations. U.S. and South Korean intelligence confirm that North Korea has been supplying Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles since mid-2022, with recent reports suggesting that half of Russia’s artillery shells in Ukraine come from North Korea. The two countries signed a mutual defense pact earlier this year.

Source Material

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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