Note: The Institute for the Study of War, my source for on the ground updates in the war in Ukraine, took a day off to lay wreaths of honor veterans. In my next update, today and tomorrow on the ground news will be covered.
Picture of the Day:
An elderly woman collects wood ahead of the winter in an area that was recently shelled in the village of Yasenove, south of the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. (Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Cuba has officially requested to join the BRICS group as a “partner country,” according to a Cuban Foreign Ministry official. The request was made through a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who currently holds the BRICS presidency. BRICS, which includes Russia, China, India, Brazil, and other nations, recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE. Cuba’s move comes as it strengthens ties with Moscow, sharing a rivalry with the U.S. The “partner country” status is not full membership, which Cuba unsuccessfully sought in 2023.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
A Russian soldier, hiding in occupied Ukrainian territory after deserting, expressed his desire to return to Russia in an intercepted phone call with his wife. He’s willing to face trial rather than risk death in combat, referring to Russian tactics as “meat assaults.” The soldier fears being caught and forcibly returned to his unit, where deserters often face harsh punishments or execution. He mentioned that some deserters who were caught after months of hiding were simply returned to their units without consequences. The call was published by Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” project, which aims to facilitate the surrender of Russian soldiers. The project, set up by Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, offers safe surrender options for Russian troops experiencing growing dissatisfaction with unrealistic objectives and dangerous missions.
Ukrainian soldiers on the front line have reported receiving inedible canned food. An investigation by NGL media, prompted by a serviceman’s complaint, found that some canned meat products failed to meet minimum quality standards. The Menterika company, which supplies these cans, claims to sell through intermediaries and asserts their products pass proper examinations. This issue follows recent scandals involving low-quality winter jackets and overpriced food purchases, which contributed to the dismissal of former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled artillery gun near Lysychansk using a HIMARS strike. The Luhansk Operative-Tactical Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released video footage of the attack, which shows a massive explosion after the strike. The Pion, originally designed to fire nuclear ammunition up to 47 km, was being unloaded from a Kamaz truck at the time of the attack. This Soviet-era weapon can fire various types of 203mm shells, including high-explosive and concrete-piercing projectiles, with ranges up to 47.5 km.
Toretsk
Russian forces are currently engaged in intense fighting within Toretsk, a front-line town in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian officials report that battles are occurring “at every building entrance” in the eastern outskirts. Russia has recently captured Vuhledar and is advancing on Pokrovsk as part of its Donbas offensive. Russian troops have entered Toretsk along Tsentralna Street, with nearby settlements like Pivnichne, Zalizne, Druzhba, and Pivdenne reportedly under partial or full Russian control. The town, once home to over 30,000 people, now has only about 1,600 residents remaining due to the ongoing conflict.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces have captured Vuhledar in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast after a prolonged assault. Commander Oleksandr Okhrimenko of Ukraine’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade reported that Russian troops outnumbered Ukrainian defenders by 9:1. The 72nd Brigade had defended Vuhledar for over two years without rotation. Russia deployed multiple units for the final assault, including the 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade and others. Following Vuhledar’s capture, Russian forces are now concentrating on Pokrovsk and Toretsk, where Ukrainian soldiers are struggling to hold ground against superior numbers and equipment.
Ukraine News
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has opened an investigation into Anastasia Trofimova, the Russian director of the documentary “Russians at War.” The film has been criticized for potentially whitewashing Russian soldiers involved in the war against Ukraine. Trofimova is being investigated for allegedly justifying Russian aggression and illegally entering occupied Ukrainian territories during filming. The documentary, which received funding from Canada, has faced controversy at international film festivals. Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Yurchyshyn initiated the case, calling for stricter consequences beyond just suspending Canadian funding for such projects.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 26
Russian forces attacked the industrial area of Kharkiv injuring 21 people, including a 16-year-old. 17 victims were hospitalized, while others received on-site medical care. The attack caused infrastructure damage and a large-scale fire. Initially thought to involve KAB aerial bombs, the exact type of weapon used is still under investigation. A second attack later hit a densely populated area, killing at least two 70-year-old civilians and injuring five others. Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that a multi-story building was hit, damaging 15 apartment buildings in the Saltivka district.
Russia launched multiple attacks on Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast targeting eight communities with 22 separate strikes. The Esman community was hit with guided bombs, resulting in two civilian deaths.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukrainian police have charged the head of a Kyiv medical center with issuing fake disability certificates to help draft-eligible men avoid mobilization and leave the country illegally. The suspect allegedly forged medical reports with false diagnoses, allowing men to evade conscription. If convicted, they face up to seven years in prison. Police seized over $25,000 and 1,600 euros during a search of the suspect’s home. This case highlights ongoing issues with draft evasion schemes as Ukraine increases mobilization efforts.
Ukraine’s Allies
Slovakia has delivered over 120 tons of ammunition to Ukraine, valued at €4 million ($4.39 million), through a public fundraising initiative led by the Czech Republic, despite the Slovak government’s official stance against military aid. The “Ammunition for Ukraine” campaign raised nearly 4.5 million euros ($4.9 million) from about 70,000 Slovaks, with an additional €500,000 ($549,000) earmarked for grenade launchers. The delivery took 4-5 months due to documentation processes. Other countries, including Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, have also contributed to the Czech initiative. Meanwhile, the EU is exploring options for member states to make voluntary contributions to the European Peace Fund, potentially providing Ukraine with over €6 billion ($6.59 million) in aid, bypassing Hungary’s veto. Ukraine reports receiving one-third of the 500,000 artillery shells pledged for this year. These developments highlight ongoing efforts to support Ukraine despite political obstacles in some European countries, such as Prime Minister Robert Fico’s dismissal of the effort as “symbolic” in Slovakia.
France plans to deliver Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine in early 2025, as announced by French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu. These aircraft will be equipped with air-to-ground combat capabilities and anti-electronic warfare defenses. Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing training in France. The Mirage 2000-5 is a fourth-generation fighter jet, like the F-16s that Ukraine recently received from Denmark and the Netherlands. Ukraine is also exploring the acquisition of Swedish Gripen and Eurofighter Typhoon jets to further strengthen its air force.
U.S. General Chris Cavoli has recommended additional weapons systems for Ukraine, including the JASSM missile and Link 16 communication system. The Biden administration has not yet approved these, citing concerns about technology falling into Russian hands. Ukraine continues to request advanced weaponry and the ability to strike targets within Russia using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. President Zelensky recently discussed this with President Biden, who remained non-committal. The future of U.S. support for Ukraine remains uncertain, particularly with the upcoming presidential election and questions about long-term military aid beyond 2025.
The UK has sanctioned Russian units and officials involved in chemical weapons use in Ukraine. This includes Russia’s Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops and their chief, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov. A Kyiv Independent investigation revealed an increase in Russian gas attacks, with over 4,000 cases recorded since the invasion began, including 3,100 since December 2023. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned Russia’s actions as violations of international law. The U.S. Department of State stated that Russia’s use of chemical agents likely aims to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions, violating the Chemical Weapons Convention.
President Joe Biden has postponed his trip to Germany and Angola due to Hurricane Milton. The delay affects a leader-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany, where President Zelensky was expected to present his victory plan. The Ramstein meeting, involving over 50 countries including NATO members, was to be the group’s first leader-level gathering. Zelensky had previously discussed his five-point plan with Biden and other U.S. officials. The plan, which includes military and diplomatic elements, aims to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. The U.S. has reviewed the plan and identified “productive steps,” according to a State Department spokesperson.
Vice President Kamala Harris, in a recent interview, discussed Ukraine’s potential NATO membership and pledged continued support against Russian aggression if elected president. Harris emphasized that the U.S. would address Ukraine’s NATO entry when appropriate, contrasting her stance with her Republican opponent’s. Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2022 but hasn’t received a formal invitation, with major allies remaining cautious. The upcoming Ramstein summit may offer some progress, though likely not meeting Kyiv’s expectations. Meanwhile, figures associated with the Republican campaign have suggested alternative approaches, including Ukraine abandoning NATO aspirations.
Nestlé, despite criticism for ongoing operations in Russia, has increased its investment and support in Ukraine during the war. The company announced a $46.7 million investment in a new production facility in Smolyhiv, Volyn region, set to open by the end of 2024. Nestlé has also invested $35 million in upgrading existing factories. The company implemented the “Ukraine, WeCare” program to support its 5,500+ Ukrainian employees, offering evacuation assistance, financial support, and psychological services. Nestlé has contributed over $28 million in humanitarian aid and supported rehabilitation centers for war victims. While Nestlé has halted new investments in Russia and withdrawn some brands, it maintains some operations there, leading to its inclusion on a Ukrainian government list of “war sponsors.” Despite this, Nestlé’s CEO for Southeastern Europe, Alessandro Zanelli, affirms the company’s commitment to Ukraine.
Two Category 5 hurricanes, Helene and Milton, are threatening Florida within two weeks, causing significant damage and loss of life. As FEMA reports funding shortages, political debates have erupted. Some right-wing figures, including Donald Trump, falsely claim that immigrant aid and support for Ukraine have depleted disaster relief funds. However, several Florida Republican representatives who voted against additional disaster relief now face criticism as their districts lie in the path of Hurricane Milton. The situation has sparked controversy over disaster preparedness, funding allocation, and political responsibility in the face of natural disasters.
American citizen Stephen Hubbard, 72, has been sentenced to nearly seven years in a Russian prison for allegedly fighting as a “mercenary” for Ukraine. The US State Department reports that Russia is denying consular access to Hubbard, violating international norms. Hubbard was arrested over two years ago and is accused of fighting in Izyum, Kharkiv region, for about $1,000 per month. His sister claims he has never handled a gun and holds pro-Russian views, suggesting his confessions were coerced. The case became public on Sept. 27 when his closed-door trial began in Moscow. The US government is considering its next steps in response to Russia’s refusal to grant consular access.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russia has stolen over 180,000 tons of Ukrainian grain through the occupied port of Mariupol, with total theft estimated at 6 million metric tons from occupied territories. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that despite losing farmlands to occupation and war damage, Ukraine’s exports from January to September matched last year’s total. Russia continues to use food as a weapon, targeting agricultural facilities and threatening Black Sea shipping routes. After canceling the Black Sea grain deal in July 2023, Ukraine established a new corridor that has evolved from a humanitarian route into a trade route. The conflict has significantly impacted global food security, as Ukraine was previously the world’s largest wheat producer.
Russia News
Ukrainian hackers disrupted online broadcasts of Russian state media channels Rossiya-1 and Rossiya-24 on October 7, coinciding with President Putin’s 72nd birthday. The cyberattack targeted VGTRK, a major Russian state media company, affecting its internal services. While VGTRK claimed no significant damage, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called it an “unprecedented attack.” This incident is part of ongoing cyberattacks by Ukrainian hackers against Russian platforms since the 2022 invasion. Previous attacks have affected communication in occupied Crimea and other Russian-controlled territories, as well as the Russian banking system.
A video by Russian opposition website “Proekt” claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin has demolished his Black Sea holiday villa, Bocharov Ruchey, due to fears of Ukrainian drone attacks. Satellite images show a pit where the palace once stood. Putin reportedly hasn’t visited the site in seven months, breaking his tradition of celebrating his partner Alina Kabayeva’s birthday there in May. The villa, previously used for hosting foreign dignitaries and as a remote office, is said to have contained a replica of Putin’s Kremlin office. Putin has also allegedly abandoned another $1.2 billion retreat in Gelendzhik. These actions are attributed to Putin’s growing paranoia about potential assassination attempts since the start of the Ukraine war.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly had up to seven secret conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin after leaving office, according to a new book by journalist Bob Woodward. The book alleges Trump spoke with Putin while pressuring Republicans to block aid to Ukraine. These claims have raised concerns about Trump’s stance on Ukraine as he seeks re-election. The book also suggests Trump secretly sent Putin COVID-19 test devices in 2020. Trump’s campaign denies these reports. In contrast, Trump’s Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, has stated she would refuse peace talks with Putin without Ukraine’s involvement if elected. These revelations come amid ongoing debates about U.S. support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1150
664120 |
Tanks +4
8944 |
Artillery +19
19222 |
Arm. VEH +11
17751 |
Aircraft
368 |
Heli
328 |
Ships
28 |
Russia’s Allies
U.S. intelligence officials warn of increased misinformation and influence campaigns by foreign adversaries ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Russia and Iran are attempting to influence the outcome, with Moscow reportedly supporting Donald Trump while undermining Kamala Harris, and Tehran favoring Harris and targeting Trump. China is focusing on influencing state and local races, particularly targeting candidates who support Taiwan. These efforts, which may exploit recent hurricane damage to undermine election confidence, are expected to intensify as Election Day approaches and could continue beyond the actual voting. Both Russia and Iran are involved in disinformation campaigns, with Iran reportedly engaged in a hack-and-leak operation against Trump. The differing preferences of Russia and Iran align with their past interactions with Trump and Harris, respectively. Officials stress that these campaigns aim to sway election outcomes and erode trust in the democratic process, noting a significant increase in foreign influence efforts as the election approaches.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun has stated that North Korea is likely to deploy regular troops to Ukraine to support Russia. This assessment follows reports of North Korean casualties near occupied Donetsk and increased military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. North Korea has been supplying Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles for its war effort. The two countries recently signed a mutual defense pact, leading to speculation about further North Korean involvement in Ukraine. However, the scale of potential troop deployment remains unclear.
The G7’s plan to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan using profits from frozen Russian assets has been delayed. Hungarian Finance Minister Mihaly Varga blocked necessary changes to EU sanctions on Russia on Oct. 8. The plan, confirmed at the G7 summit in Italy, aimed to use interest from frozen Russian assets to repay the loan. The U.S. wants the EU to extend its sanctions renewal period from six months to three years as a condition for contributing $20 billion. Hungary argues the decision should wait until after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, citing potential policy changes depending on the outcome. Western countries have frozen $300 billion in Russian assets, mostly in Europe, with an annual income of $3.2 billion.
Source Material
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com