Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces struck key Russian military facilities, targeting a Shahed drone storage in Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition warehouse in the Republic of Adygea. These strikes aim to disrupt Russia’s supply chain and hinder its ability to launch attacks on Ukrainian positions.
Russian forces have escalated attacks on civilian vessels in Ukrainian ports since October 5, striking three ships. This appears to be part of a strategy to undermine confidence in Ukraine’s grain corridor and pressure Ukraine into negotiations. Meanwhile, a senior US defense official reported that Russian casualties have exceeded 600,000 since the invasion began in February 2022, a significant increase from previous estimates.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk, while Russian forces made gains in Kursk Oblast, near Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and southwest of Donetsk City. The Russian military is reportedly recruiting older volunteers to sustain its ongoing mobilization efforts.
An unverified claim from an Iranian news outlet suggests that Russia has provided Iran with an S-400 air defense system and Su-35 fighter jets, potentially in exchange for Iran’s support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian firefighters at the scene of destroyed building following Russian air attack in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast. (Maciek Musialek/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
An Iranian news outlet affiliated with a former military commander claimed on October 8 that Russia has provided Iran with an S-400 air defense system and a squadron of Su-35 fighter jets. However, this claim is unverified and lacks supporting evidence. This maintains that Russia might supply Iran with advanced military equipment in exchange for Iran’s ongoing support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This claim has not been widely reported in major Western or Russian media outlets.
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky stated that Russia is responsible for 80% of global foreign influence operations. He emphasized the need for increased European vigilance and stronger countermeasures, including strategic communication, sanctions, and legal actions. U.S. intelligence officials have also warned of Russian influence campaigns targeting the upcoming U.S. elections.
A joint report by German and British think tanks suggests creating a “NATO bank” to protect the alliance’s military spending if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The report warns that Trump might reduce U.S. defense spending in Europe, push for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal ceding territory, or potentially leave NATO. The proposed bank would offer low-interest loans and longer repayment terms for military equipment purchases. The report also cautions about possible diplomatic breakdowns and U.S. troop withdrawals from Europe under a second Trump presidency.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
A significant fire continues to burn at the Marine Oil Terminal in Russian-occupied Feodosia, Crimea, for the fourth day following a Ukrainian missile strike on October 7. This incident, affecting the largest oil facility on the peninsula, has led to the evacuation of 1,137 people. On October 10, two additional large fires erupted at the same terminal, with the cause unclear and Ukraine not commenting. The blazes, visible throughout the city, involved the release of “flammable materials” according to local authorities. Russian emergency services are struggling to extinguish the fires, and there are warnings that firefighting efforts may impact local water supplies. These events are part of a series of Ukrainian strikes targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure, aimed at disrupting Moscow’s war efforts.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast focusing on areas southeast and east of Korenevo, near Lyubimovka and Kamyshevka. They also conducted operations in Glushkovsky Raion, west of their main position. Russian sources claim their 106th Airborne Division repelled a Ukrainian attack near Veseloye, south of Glushkovo. However, no confirmed Ukrainian advances were reported in these areas on this day.
Russian forces have made minor advances in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Footage from October 7 shows Russian troops advancing in eastern Obukhovka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have captured Pokrovsky, while Russian sources report advances in Zeleniy Shlyakh, Novaya Sorochina, and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. These claims lack visual confirmation.
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against Russian military facilities in southern Russia over two consecutive days. On the first day, they targeted a Shahed drone storage facility near Oktyabrsky in Krasnodar Krai, reportedly housing about 400 drones. This strike potentially destroyed nearly 5% of the drones Russia has used in its 31-month invasion of Ukraine. The following day, Ukrainian forces struck an ammunition warehouse at the Khanskaya Air Base in the Republic of Adygea, which is used for Russian aircraft conducting strikes on Ukrainian frontline positions.
The Khanskaya military airfield operation was a joint effort by Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR), Security Service (SBU), and Special Operations Forces. They launched dozens of combat drones at the facility near Maykop, Adygea, which houses the 272nd Polotsk Aviation Training Base. The strike targeted various Russian aircraft, including Su-34 fighter-bombers, Su-35 jets, L-39 training jets, and Mi-8 helicopters. Local residents reported explosions, fires, and some evacuations from nearby villages.
These attacks are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to disrupt Russia’s supply of ammunition and drones used against Ukrainian positions and settlements. While individual strikes may not significantly impact Russia’s overall war effort, repeated attacks could force Russia to reorganize its logistics systems, potentially reducing the efficiency of its support for operations in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have recently struck several other Russian military facilities, including targets in Tver Oblast and Bryansk Oblast. In response to these attacks, Russia claimed to have intercepted 92 Ukrainian drones over various regions, including Krasnodar Krai, occupied Crimea, and several areas bordering Ukraine.
Screenshot of a video that purports to show the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike against the Khanskaya military airfield in Russia’s Adygea Republic. (Andrii Kovalenko/Telegram)
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe, northeast of Kharkiv City. No frontline changes were confirmed. Ukrainian forces report that Russia is attempting to resupply ammunition at forward positions near Starytsya.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced east of Kupyansk, gaining ground in northern Petropavlivka and near Kotlyarivka. They continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Assaults were reported in multiple areas, including Synkivka, Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Vyshneve, and several other settlements. Russian claims of advances near Kyslivka and Terny remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian sources disputed recent claims of advances near Siversk. Milbloggers denied Russian forces had fully captured Verkhnokamyanske or half of Serebryanka or made progress near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka. Some footage suggests temporary Russian advances east of Hryhorivka and into western Verkhnokamyanske, but not permanent positions. Critics blamed exaggerated reports of success. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made small advances north of Chasiv Yar. Footage shows Russian troops moving southwest of Hryhorivka. Ground attacks continued in Chasiv Yar’s Kanal Microraion, and nearby areas including Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bila Hora, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Stupochky. Russian artillery reportedly continues to target eastern Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces recently regained some ground in and around Toretsk, while Russian attacks continued. Footage shows Ukrainian advances north of Nelipivka and in central Toretsk. Russian forces reportedly seized a building at the Tsentralna Mine in Toretsk. Russian attacks persisted near Dyliivka, Druzhba, Nelipivka, Shcherbynivka, and Leonidivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced southeast of Pokrovsk. They gained ground east and south of Selydove, and reportedly captured Zhelanne Pershe. Attacks continued near several settlements including Sukha Balka, Tsukuryne, and Novoselydivka. Russian tactics involve continuous waves of infantry assaults, sometimes with armored support.
Russian forces are adjusting their control of terrain east and southeast of Zhelanne Pershe. While there’s no direct evidence of Russian forces in these fields, the overall battlefield layout suggests they likely occupy this area. This adjustment wasn’t a recent capture but a map correction. Russian forces aim to widen the southern flank of the Pokrovsk salient, creating a smoother frontline that connects areas west of Donetsk City to south of Pokrovsk. This strategy helps eliminate vulnerable points and provides a broader base for potential attacks on Pokrovsk.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued their offensive west of Donetsk City with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Ground attacks were reported near Hostre, Heorhiivka, and Kurakhivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced southwest of Donetsk City gaining ground northeast of Vodyane. They continued attacks near several settlements including Katerynivka, Vuhledar, and Maksymilyanivka. Reports suggest a Ukrainian counterattack near Zolota Nyva, while Russian sources claim advances in that area and near Bohoyavlenka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported no ongoing fighting in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued attacks near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast but made no confirmed progress. Russian sources reported heavy fighting in Kamyanske, south of Stepnohirsk, following claims of advances there on October 9. However, no further Russian gains were reported in the area
A Ukrainian military official warned that Russian forces may intensify small-scale infantry attacks near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and Pryyutne in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area within the next week. Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn reported that Russian forces are gathering troops in these areas, potentially preparing for assaults using small groups of 5-10 soldiers from motorized rifle and airborne units.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks in the Kherson direction, but the frontline remained unchanged.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a widespread aerial attack on Ukraine, using various missiles and 62 drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted 41 drones across multiple regions. The strikes damaged civilian and critical infrastructure in Odesa, Poltava, and Donetsk oblasts. A drone hit Kryvyi Rih, and a cruise missile struck near Mykolaiv City. The attacks targeted a broad area of Ukraine, affecting both frontline and inland regions.
A Russian missile strike on Odesa Oblast on October 9 hit a civilian cargo ship carrying humanitarian aid for Palestine, killing eight and injuring 11. The attack damaged 45 containers of sunflower oil destined for Palestine as part of a UN order. This incident was part of a series of Russian attacks on civilian vessels in Ukrainian ports since October 5, targeting ships under Panamanian, Palauan, and Liberian flags. Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Vitalii Koval emphasized Ukraine’s role in global food security and called for more air defenses, while Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper accused Russia of attempting to disrupt Ukraine’s maritime food corridor, established after Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal.
These attacks appear to be part of a Russian strategy to undermine Ukraine’s grain corridor and international confidence in Ukraine’s ability to maintain safe maritime trade. As a result, war risk insurance premiums for ships using Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor have increased by about 33%, rising to over 1% of a ship’s value from 0.75% the previous week. This increase significantly affects shipping costs, with a $50 million ship now paying an additional $125,000 per voyage. Ukrainian officials suggest these strikes aim to disrupt Ukraine’s economy and pressure the country into premature negotiations, while also potentially influencing Western discussions about long-term support for Ukraine. Despite the establishment of this export route after Russia ended the Black Sea grain deal, ships remain at risk from Russian attacks and drifting mines.
President Zelensky presented Ukraine’s five-point victory plan to UK Prime Minister Starmer in London. The plan, previously shared with US officials, includes military and diplomatic elements, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. Zelensky discussed military support with Starmer and NATO Secretary General Rutte, focusing on air defense systems and weapons production. Zelensky’s European tour continues amid concerns about the war’s progress and potential changes in US support.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel on Friday to Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. This meeting comes ahead of a rescheduled Ukrainian Defense Contact (Ramstein group) meeting on October 17-18 in Brussels, which will coincide with a NATO Defense Ministers’ meeting. The original summit was postponed due to U.S. President Joe Biden’s inability to attend because of hurricane damage in the United States.
The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill on Oct. 10 to increase taxes, aiming to address the country’s budget deficit amid the ongoing war with Russia. The legislation will raise the military tax on individuals’ income from 1.5% to 5% and increase profit taxes for banks and financial institutions. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal previously stated that Ukraine faces a $35 billion budget deficit next year, with foreign partners pledging to cover about $20 billion. The tax increase is part of efforts to find additional domestic funding sources, although it has faced criticism for potentially worsening living conditions in Ukraine.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and International Finance Corporation (IFC) have jointly invested $435 million in Datagroup-Volia-Lifecell, a newly merged Ukrainian telecom company. This marks the largest direct foreign investment in Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The investment, supported by the French government and European Commission, aims to improve mobile and broadband connectivity for millions of Ukrainians and aid in the recovery of the country’s telecom sector, which has suffered significant war-related damages. The merged company is owned by French billionaire Xavier Niel’s NJJ Capital, in partnership with Horizon Capital and former Datagroup-Volia CEO Mykhaylo Shelemba.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 5
A Russian attack on the village of Cherkaska Lozova, located just north of Kharkiv, injured five people.
A Russian ballistic missile strike on port infrastructure in Odesa, Ukraine, has killed eight people. The attack on October 9 initially left six dead, with two more succumbing to injuries in the hospital the following day.
Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna, who was held captive by Russia, has died according to Ukrainian officials. Roshchyna disappeared in August 2023 while reporting in Russian-occupied territory. She was confirmed to be in Russian detention in April 2024 and was supposed to be part of an upcoming prisoner exchange. Roshchyna had previously been detained by Russian authorities in March 2022 near Mariupol and was forced to record a video praising Russian forces as a condition of her release. The circumstances of her death are still being investigated.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine’s parliament has passed amendments allowing foreign volunteers in the International Legion to serve as officers, expanding their roles beyond privates and sergeants. The Legion, formed in 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion, has attracted volunteers from over 50 countries. While initially seen as a PR success, the unit has faced scandals and misconduct allegations. The changes aim to enhance the Legion’s effectiveness, though it has struggled with leadership issues. Meanwhile, Poland’s efforts to form a Ukrainian Legion for training Ukrainians living there have been delayed due to low applicant numbers.
Ukraine is conducting an audit of its conscription deferral system, set to conclude on November 15. The review was prompted by a significant increase in exemptions, with an estimated 1.5 million conscripts currently deferred from mobilization. Lt. Gen. Ivan Havryliuk, Deputy Minister of Defense, reported that the number of deferrals doubled in recent months. The audit will assess companies classified as critical enterprises, which can exempt employees from military service. If a company loses its critical status, exemptions may be canceled. Currently, over 700 companies are designated as critical, allowing them to exempt 50% of their workforce, while some infrastructure and defense contractors can exempt all employees. The Ministry of Economy will present the audit results to the government by November 20.
Anduril, a U.S. defense tech company, is set to sell small autonomous drones after successful testing in Ukraine. These drones can fly for 40 minutes with a 20-kilometer range. Ukraine’s front lines have become a testing ground for military innovation, particularly in drone technology, since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. While foreign startups attract significant investment, such as Anduril’s recent $1.5 billion funding round, Ukrainian defense startups struggle to secure foreign capital due to war-related risks and regulations. Drones are emerging as a cost-effective alternative to traditional military aircraft, offering precision strikes and surveillance capabilities.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Zelensky and Croatian Prime Minister Plenkovich signed a bilateral agreement marking the 27th such agreement since July 2023. The deal covers defense cooperation, demining assistance, and support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.
France plans to transfer upgraded Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine in early 2025. The aircraft are being modernized with new electronic warfare defenses and air-to-ground attack capabilities. France is also training 26 Ukrainian pilots and ground crew. The number of jets provided will likely match the number of Ukrainians who complete the training. These Mirages will be the second Western-made fighter given to Ukraine after F-16s. The jets are expected to be equipped with advanced missiles and potentially able to carry Storm Shadow cruise missiles and AASM Hammer guided bombs. While not as advanced as F-16s, the Mirages will significantly boost Ukraine’s air capabilities compared to its Soviet-era aircraft.
Russia News
Unilever has sold its Russian and Belarusian operations to Arnest Group, a Russian manufacturer, for an undisclosed amount. The sale includes four factories and ends Unilever’s presence in Russia. The deal’s value is disputed, with Russian sources citing a lower figure than Unilever’s estimate. Unilever had faced criticism for continuing operations in Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and was listed as an “international sponsor of war” by Ukraine’s National Corruption Prevention Agency. The company reportedly paid significant taxes to Russia in 2022, despite earlier promises to suspend imports and exports.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has accused three Russian lawmakers from Dagestan and Ingushetia of plotting to kill him. The accusation is linked to a violent incident at the Moscow headquarters of Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, where two people were killed in September. Kadyrov claims there are witnesses to the alleged plot. The incident at Wildberries involved a dispute between the company’s founder and her estranged husband. Kadyrov warned of a “blood feud” if the accused lawmakers don’t prove their innocence, while also cautioning against pitting different ethnic groups against each other over domestic issues.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
A senior US defense official confirmed on October 9 that Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. This is a significant increase from the previous estimate of 315,000 casualties as of December 2023. The official also stated that Russian forces experienced more casualties in the past month than in any other month of the war. These figures suggest a substantial loss of Russian military personnel, with earlier assessments indicating that the casualties represent a large portion of Russia’s initial military strength at the start of the invasion.
| Troops +1140
666340 |
Tanks +8
8953 |
Artillery +59
19322 |
Arm. VEH +35
17800 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli +1
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian military recruitment is increasingly targeting older volunteers, with reports indicating a significant rise in personnel over 50 years old in some units. Data suggests that deaths among Russian military volunteers over 45 have increased by 18% in 2024 compared to the entire previous year. This trend reflects ongoing efforts to sustain military operations in Ukraine through crypto-mobilization.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov proposed on October 9 that troubled youth in Chechnya should be given a choice: serve prison time or join a new 2,500-person regiment to fight in Ukraine. This regiment, to be overseen by Russian State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov, is currently being formed for future deployment to Ukraine.
Russian President Putin’s People’s Front coalition announced the development of a new multifunctional drone in Novosibirsk Oblast. This drone, capable of speeds up to 80 km/h with a 200 km range, can be used for reconnaissance, as a decoy against Ukrainian air defenses, or as a strike weapon. The project was a collaboration between local authorities and the People’s Front “Kulibin Club” initiative.
Russia’s Allies
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met in Moscow to discuss economic ties and industrial cooperation, particularly in aviation. Putin awarded Lukashenko Russia’s highest state honor, the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle.
Two Russian MiG-31K jets, capable of carrying Kinzhal missiles, landed at Belarus’ Machulishchy airport. This marks the first time these aircraft have been spotted in Belarus since April 2023. While Belarus isn’t directly involved in the war, it allows Russia to use its territory for operations against Ukraine. The Kinzhal missile, with a range of 2,000 kilometers, is difficult to intercept and poses a significant threat to Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses have previously intercepted 25 out of 63 Kinzhal missiles since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Reports suggest North Korean soldiers may be fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine, despite Kremlin denials. South Korea’s Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun claimed North Korean troops were likely in Ukraine, with some reportedly killed near occupied Donetsk. Sources indicate North Korean personnel may be assisting with missile launches and gaining combat experience. Russia and North Korea have strengthened military cooperation, including a recent defense pact, as Moscow seeks support for its war in Ukraine. The presence of North Korean military or police personnel in occupied Donbas has also been reported.
Russia expanded visa-free entry for Georgian citizens working or studying in Russia beyond 90 days, amid concerns over Georgia’s democratic backsliding. This comes as the EU considers ending Georgia’s visa-free access due to deteriorating relations. Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party recently passed a controversial “foreign agents” law, mirroring Russian legislation used to suppress critics. The party’s de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, also suggested Georgia should “apologize” for Russia’s 2008 war against it, further straining Georgia’s relationship with the West while improving ties with Russia.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com