Summary of the Day:
Russian forces have resumed tactical offensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, achieving localized gains near Velyka Novosilka. These actions, however, do not appear to be part of a larger offensive campaign in western Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have also made advances near Toretsk and Donetsk City.
In a disturbing development, Russian forces executed nine Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast. This incident is part of a broader trend of increasing POW executions by Russian forces across the theater. Ukrainian officials report documenting 93 such executions since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 80% occurring in 2024.
Russian military bloggers, some with large followings and Kremlin connections, have publicly celebrated and justified these executions. This glorification of war crimes is reinforcing a troubling cultural norm within the Russian ultranationalist community and may be encouraging further atrocities.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have managed to regain some previously lost positions near Selydove, demonstrating their continued resistance despite Russian advances in other areas.
Picture of the Day:
Amputee veterans of the Russian-Ukrainian war take part a symbolic start in the Kyiv Marathon of Invincibility in Kyiv. (Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Lithuanians are voting in parliamentary elections on Sunday, with the center-left Social Democratic Party expected to replace the ruling conservatives. Despite the likely change in government, Lithuania’s strong support for Ukraine and commitment to defense spending are expected to remain unchanged. The election could also see a new populist party, Nemunas Dawn, enter parliament for the first time, despite controversy surrounding its leader’s alleged anti-Semitic comments. All major parties agree on maintaining strong support for Ukraine and defense spending, currently at 3% of GDP, as Lithuania remains wary of potential threats from neighboring Russia.
The Path to Peace
A German news outlet reported that the Ukrainian government is considering options to end Russia’s war that might involve temporarily suspending its goal of full territorial restoration. This is due to Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election. Currently, over 20% of Ukraine’s territory is under Russian occupation, including parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, as well as Crimea. While President Zelensky’s peace formula has insisted on full liberation of all occupied territories, an unnamed official suggested that an agreement might require some concessions. However, recent polls show that 55% of Ukrainians still oppose territorial concessions for peace, though this number has decreased from previous surveys. A Presidential Office adviser has denied any plans involving a ceasefire or ceding territory to Russia.
Former NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has suggested Ukraine could join NATO with only the territories it currently controls, like West Germany’s 1955 NATO accession. This idea has sparked debate among European commentators. Some see it as a potential compromise to end the war, while others warn it could lead to permanent division of Ukraine. The proposal faces challenges, including Russia’s insistence on Ukraine’s neutrality and the need for carefully measured Western intervention. Meanwhile, U.S. President Biden’s postponement of a Ramstein Contact Group meeting highlights America’s significant influence on Western policy regarding the Ukraine conflict.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are reportedly using black-market Starlink internet terminals extensively on the front lines in Ukraine, contributing to recent territorial gains, including the capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Despite efforts by SpaceX and the U.S. Pentagon to prevent Russian access, Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk have observed increased Starlink usage by Russian troops. This development has eliminated Ukraine’s previous technological advantage in battlefield communications. The terminals are allegedly obtained through shadowy supply chains, often via European sources and transported through the UAE. Ukrainian officials express concern about this trend, with one battalion commander describing it as “something that kills us.” The proliferation of Starlink among Russian forces poses a significant challenge to Ukrainian military operations and complicates efforts to disable these devices due to shifting front lines.
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian fuel depot near Rovenky in occupied Luhansk Oblast on October 12. The Ukrainian military claims their intelligence agency and forces conducted the attack, while Russian sources suggest a drone was used to hit a fuel tank at the facility.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukraine continues to hold positions in Russia’s Kursk region, despite Moscow’s attempts to retake the territory, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. This situation stems from Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk in August, which created a buffer zone to prevent shelling of its border areas. While Russia claims to have recaptured several villages, including Matveevka, Olgovka, Lyubimovka, Tolsty Lug, and parts of Novoivanovka, U.S. officials believe Ukraine can maintain its hold for several more months. The Institute for the Study of War suggests Russian forces have likely advanced within at least 13 settlements.
The fighting in Kursk Oblast has been described as chaotic and bloody, with both sides becoming intermixed at times. Russian forces have launched limited counterattacks in Kursk while focusing on advances in eastern Ukraine. They reportedly attacked near Malaya Loknya, Mikhailovka, Plekhovo, Kolmakov, and Agronom, and claim to have repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Novoivanovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, Nizhny Klin, and Pokrovsky. Russian forces are also reportedly trying to push Ukrainian troops out of Glushkovsky Raion, west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, claiming advances from Veseloye towards Novy Put and near Medvezhye.
Ukrainian officials report increased Russian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast. Andrii Kovalenko, from Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, confirmed ongoing active fighting in the region. A Ukrainian military spokesperson noted that Russia is moving additional units to the area, resulting in a high concentration of Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Many of these claims from both sides have not been independently verified.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
There were no reports of fighting in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian motorized rifle units are reportedly positioned near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv City.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed gains. They reportedly advanced near the Oskil River by Kruhlyakivka. Attacks occurred near several settlements including Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Kolisnykivka, Myasozharivka, Novomykhailivka, and Terny. Russian motorized rifle units are operating in the Kupyansk and Lyman areas. These claims are not all independently verified.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched attacks near Siversk targeting areas like Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka, and Vyimka. While a Russian source claimed advances north of Verkhnokamyanske, these reports remain unconfirmed. Despite these operations, no significant changes to the frontline have been verified.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar, including areas around Kalynivka and Stupochky. The attacks mainly involved small infantry groups, with limited use of mechanized forces. Ukrainian drones reportedly hindered Russian advances near Stupochky. Despite these operations, no significant changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Toretsk
Russian forces made small advances in eastern Toretsk, while continuing attacks near Shcherbynivka. Ukrainian officials reported Russian soldiers changing into civilian clothes during assaults in Toretsk, which would be a war crime if true.
Pokrovsk
Ukrainian forces reclaimed positions north of Selydove, near Pokrovsk. Russian forces reportedly captured Mykhailivka and Tsukuryne earlier. Recent Russian attacks targeted numerous settlements around Pokrovsk, including Promin, Myrolyubivka, and Myrnohrad. Russian forces have begun using armored vehicles in assaults, and reportedly struck a mine near Selydove with a missile.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces attacked near Kurakhove and surrounding areas like Maksymilyanivka, Heorhiivka, and Dalne. Despite these operations, no significant changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces have made confirmed advances southwest of Donetsk City, specifically in southeastern Katerynivka, as evidenced by geolocated footage. Russian sources claim additional advances north of Kostyantynivka and Vodyane, and further into central Katerynivka, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Offensive operations were conducted near Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, and Zolota Nyva.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces have resumed tactical offensive attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, making localized gains near Levadne, Novodarivka, and Velyka Novosilka. These actions, which began on October 11, are part of a planned effort to improve tactical positions and establish footholds for future operations. Russian sources claim to have seized Levadne and advanced towards Novodarivka, though these claims remain unconfirmed.
These operations could potentially support a larger effort to eliminate a Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast and reach the H-15 highway, with the capture of Velyka Novosilka likely necessary for significant progress. However, current Russian activities in this area do not yet indicate a large-scale offensive comparable to operations in eastern Ukraine, and some Russian forces have been redeployed from this region to address a Ukrainian incursion in Kursk.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast but made no confirmed advances. The increased activity near Kamyanske in western Zaporizhia Oblast may be intended to divert Ukrainian attention and resources from the main Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces increased attacks in the Dnipro area, focusing on eastern Kherson Oblast and Dnipro River Delta islands. Ukrainian officials reported five to seven daily assaults by small Russian infantry groups. Russia is also gathering weapons on the Kinburn Spit, possibly planning attacks on nearby islands where the Dniprovska Gulf meets the Black Sea.
Ukraine News
Russian forces have intensified their attacks on Ukraine, launching a significant overnight assault using missiles and drones, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kh-59 cruise missiles, and 68 strike drones from various locations. Ukrainian forces intercepted 31 drones and reportedly disrupted 36 more, with strikes hitting targets in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Odesa oblasts. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that in the past week, Russia had used approximately 900 guided aerial bombs, 40 missiles, and 400 strike drones against Ukraine. The guided aerial bombs, which are cheaper than missiles but have a shorter range, are launched from aircraft within Russian territory, making them difficult for Ukrainian air defenses to intercept. Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for international support, calling for more air defense systems and timely military aid to help Ukraine defend against these escalating attacks.
Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin has announced an investigation into the alleged shooting of nine Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered as prisoners in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on October 10, 2024. The incident, reported by the monitoring group DeepState and citing sources in Ukraine’s First Tank Brigade, occurred near Zeleny Shlyakh after Ukrainian soldiers encountered Russian forces unexpectedly. Kostin stated that this act would constitute a grave violation of the Geneva Conventions and international law, prompting the opening of a criminal case. Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has submitted information about these execution cases to the UN and International Committee of the Red Cross, while Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiga called for immediate international action, including warrants for Russian executioners, increased sanctions, and demands for access to detention sites.
This incident is part of a broader trend, with Ukrainian officials reporting a sharp increase in summary executions of Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces. A senior representative of the Prosecutor General’s Office stated that Ukraine is aware of 93 Ukrainian POWs summarily executed by Russian soldiers throughout the full-scale war, with 80% of these cases occurring in 2024. The largest single incident involved 16 POWs in the Pokrovsk area on October 1. Yurii Belousov, head of the war crimes department, indicated that since November 2023, Russian treatment of Ukrainian prisoners has significantly worsened, with evidence suggesting some Russian commanders are directly ordering these executions.
Russian military bloggers, some with large followings and Kremlin connections, have publicly celebrated and justified the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Kursk Oblast. Influencers, including channels like Rybar, RVvoenkor, and Dva Mayora, are reinforcing a cultural norm that condones war crimes within the Russian ultranationalist community. Their glorification of such atrocities, viewed by many Russian soldiers and volunteers, may be encouraging the systematic execution of Ukrainian POWs across the conflict zone.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov reported positive outcomes from meetings with Western defense partners. President Zelensky led a delegation to France, the U.K., Italy, and Germany, securing promises of increased investment in Ukraine’s defense industry. The U.K. committed to providing long-range weapons and other military equipment, while France discussed establishing a drone operator training center. Umerov mentioned plans to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s defense needs and highlighted discussions on boosting weapons production through joint ventures with European partners. Ukraine aims to become a global defense leader but requires foreign investment due to war-strained finances. The country has already significantly increased domestic ammunition production and is forming partnerships with foreign companies for joint weapons manufacturing.
President Biden will visit Germany on October 18 to meet with German leaders Steinmeier and Scholz, discussing the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts. This trip, originally scheduled for October 12, was postponed due to Hurricane Milton. The visit has been shortened from a formal state visit to primarily work events. The delay affects the Ramstein summit, a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, where over 50 countries discuss aid to Ukraine. No new date for the summit has been set.
Estonia is considering purchasing defense supplies from Ukraine, according to Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. Despite Ukraine’s martial law prohibiting defense equipment exports, Pevkur suggests a mutually beneficial agreement could be reached. This could help Ukraine increase its defense production, which currently has a $20 billion capacity but only $6 billion in state funding. Estonia is particularly interested in long-range missiles. Pevkur plans to meet with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov in Brussels and visit Ukraine soon. The two countries recently signed a 10-year security agreement, with Estonia committing to significant military aid for Ukraine.
A recent poll by CBOS, Poland’s national statistics office, shows that support for accepting Ukrainian refugees in Poland has dropped to 53%, the lowest since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. This decline is attributed to the “grain crisis” caused by Ukrainian agricultural imports. Opposition to accepting refugees has risen to 40%. The poll also reveals that 67% of Poles support sending Ukrainian men of military age back to Ukraine. Regarding the war, 51% of Poles fear Russia might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, while 46% want Ukraine to continue fighting. Poland remains a strong supporter of Ukraine, providing aid and weapons, but public opinion is shifting as the conflict continues.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1260
670190 |
Tanks +4
8975 |
Artillery +11
19421 |
Arm. VEH +19
17895 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian arms manufacturer Kalashnikov Concern reported on October 11 that its new “Goliath” drone was tested in Ukraine. The drone, designed for reconnaissance and attacks, can allegedly track targets and destroy unarmored vehicles and personnel. It’s said to have a return feature if communication is lost.
Russia’s Allies
Two Russian MiG-31K jets briefly appeared in Belarus on October 9-10 before likely returning to Russia on October 12, according to the Belarusian monitoring group Hajun. These jets, capable of launching long-range Kinzhal missiles, raised concerns about potential attacks on Ukraine. Their sudden appearance and departure sparked speculation about Russia’s intentions. Ukraine reportedly damaged at least one of Russia’s 12 MiG-31s in a drone strike on the Savasleyka airbase in August.
President Zelensky warned of a deepening alliance between Russia and North Korea, with reports suggesting North Korea may send troops to aid Russia in Ukraine. This follows North Korea’s previous supply of ballistic missiles and artillery shells to Russia. Zelensky called for increased international support for Ukraine, emphasizing the need to prevent a larger conflict. He dismissed Russian denials of these reports and announced upcoming talks with Western partners on Ukraine’s victory plan.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com