Summary of the Day:
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in China highlighting ongoing Russia-China defense cooperation. The visit coincided with bilateral naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean, underscoring the strengthening military ties between the two nations.
Russian forces continued their campaign against Ukrainian ports, striking civilian vessels in Odesa for the fourth time since October 5. This latest attack targeted the ships NS Moon and Optima, along with port infrastructure and a grain warehouse. The strikes appear aimed at undermining Ukraine’s grain corridor and international support.
On the battlefield, Russian sources claimed to have recaptured positions in Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces reportedly regained ground in central Toretsk. Russian forces conducted a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Kurakhove direction and made confirmed advances northeast of Vuhledar.
In occupied territories, Russian officials continue efforts to indoctrinate children by pathologizing Ukrainian identity. Separately, a report from the Russian opposition outlet Verstka suggests the Kremlin’s “Time of Heroes” program, which places war veterans in government positions, aims to boost recruitment for contract military service.
Picture of the Day:
A local resident stands near on a generator outside a restaurant in Odesa. As Russian forces continue to target energy infrastructure with bombings and temperatures drop, power outages are anticipated. (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
President Biden expressed readiness for nuclear talks with Russia, China, and North Korea without preconditions. This announcement came as he congratulated the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize winners, a Japanese anti-nuclear organization. Biden emphasized the importance of reducing nuclear threats, especially given current global tensions. His statement follows Russia’s recent changes to its nuclear doctrine, which lowered the threshold for nuclear response. Putin has made nuclear threats against Ukraine and the West since the invasion began, and recently expanded scenarios that could trigger a Russian nuclear response.
German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl warned that Russia could have the capability to attack NATO by 2030. He highlighted Russia’s increased use of covert and hybrid measures against the West, describing it as unprecedented. Kahl stated that Moscow aims to push the U.S. out of Europe, revert NATO boundaries to 1990s levels, and establish a Russian sphere of influence. He cautioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely continue to test Western red lines and escalate confrontations. Additionally, Germany’s domestic intelligence chief Thomas Haldewang reported a significant increase in Russian espionage and sabotage activities in Europe. These warnings underscore growing concerns about Russia’s military ambitions and Europe’s preparedness.
NATO has begun its annual nuclear exercise, Steadfast Noon, involving over 2,000 military personnel and 60 aircraft from 13 countries. The two-week drills, taking place in Belgium, the Netherlands, and airspace over Denmark, the UK, and the North Sea, include nuclear-capable fighter jets but no live weapons. This routine exercise occurs amid heightened tensions due to Russia’s recent changes to its nuclear doctrine and President Putin’s nuclear threats against Ukraine and its Western allies. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized that nuclear deterrence remains crucial to Allied security. The drills involve various aircraft types, including the first F-35A from the Dutch Air Force declared ready for nuclear roles.
Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a bill to ratify a strategic partnership treaty with North Korea, which includes mutual military assistance in case of attack. The treaty, signed by Putin and Kim Jong Un in June 2024, deepens military cooperation as Russia seeks support for its war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia plans to directly involve North Korea in the conflict in the coming months, potentially transferring North Korean troops to occupied areas. South Korea’s Defense Minister supported this claim, though Russia dismissed it as “fake news.”
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited China meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun in Beijing. The visit coincided with joint Russia-China naval exercises in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Both countries expressed a desire to enhance military cooperation. Simultaneously, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reported that China launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan, overlapping with Belousov’s visit. This series of events underscores the strengthening defense ties between Russia and China, potentially impacting regional stability.
Russian sources are accusing Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan, of anti-Russian actions. A prominent Russian blogger claimed that history textbooks in these countries portray Russia negatively and that Kazakhstan is not sufficiently supporting the Russian language. The blogger drew parallels between Kazakhstan’s efforts to protect its national identity and Russia’s justifications for invading Ukraine. Another source alleged U.S. involvement in undermining Russia’s influence in Kazakhstan through nuclear research cooperation, echoing previous claims about American biolabs in Ukraine. These narratives appear aimed at challenging Central Asian autonomy and U.S. relations in the region.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
President Zelensky of Ukraine has warned that Russia plans to directly involve North Korea in the war against Ukraine this fall and winter, based on intelligence data. This deepening alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang may include North Korean personnel on Ukraine’s front lines alongside weapons transfers. Russia has reportedly been receiving large shipments of artillery shells and missiles from North Korea since fall 2023, which have been used in attacks on Ukrainian settlements. In exchange, Russia is said to have provided North Korea with military technology. While concrete evidence is limited, there are unconfirmed reports of North Korean officers killed in a Ukrainian missile strike in occupied territory, and some sources claim North Korean personnel may already be present in occupied areas of Ukraine. South Korea’s Defense Minister suggested North Korea might deploy regular troops to aid Russia.
Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Russia is prioritizing protection of the Kerch Strait Bridge over other critical infrastructure. Russia has shifted from using naval assets to employing booms, barriers, and aviation for bridge defense, likely due to the threat of Ukrainian strikes. Pletenchuk previously noted construction of protective structures near the bridge and the placement of air defense systems in occupied Crimea.
Reports of a Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet near Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine have circulated widely but remain unconfirmed. The story originated from a Russian military blog and quickly spread across global media. While the loss of the $42 million Russian aircraft is generally accepted, including by some Russian sources, solid evidence of F-16 involvement is lacking. Neither the Russian Defense Ministry nor Ukrainian officials have officially commented on the incident. The Ukrainian Air Force typically keeps F-16s away from the front lines due to their high value. Experts suggest that if true, such an engagement would have been extremely risky for the Ukrainian pilot. The incident highlights the ongoing information war surrounding the conflict in Ukraine.
Recent reports suggest Russian forces executed nine Ukrainian drone operators who surrendered near Zeleny Shlyakh in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on October 10. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General has opened an investigation into the incident, calling it a violation of the Geneva Conventions. Some Russian pro-war bloggers with large online followings have defended or even celebrated these alleged killings, despite the lack of evidence for their claims about Ukrainian drone operators targeting civilians. Ukrainian officials, including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiga, have called for international action in response to the increasing mistreatment and execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war. The Ukrainian Ombudsman has submitted information about the incident to the UN and the Red Cross. According to Ukrainian authorities, 93 Ukrainian POWs have been summarily executed by Russian soldiers since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly recaptured territory in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. Milbloggers claim Russian troops retook Tolsty Lug and possibly Cherkasskaya Konopelka, along with areas near Novoivanovka, Borky, and Plekhovo. These claims are unconfirmed. Russian sources report ongoing operations near Kremyanoye, Lyubimovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, Fanaseyevka, and other settlements. Ukrainian counterattacks are reported in several areas.
Russian forces reportedly recaptured territory in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources claim they seized Novy Put and pushed Ukrainian forces out of most of the area south of Veseloye. These claims are unconfirmed. Ukrainian counterattacks near Novy Put have been reported. The situation remains uncertain, with claims from Russian sources not independently verified.
A Russian source reports that the autumn muddy season has begun in Kursk Oblast, affecting both Russian and Ukrainian military operations. The source claims this gives Russian forces an advantage due to their use of tracked vehicles, which are better suited for muddy conditions than Ukrainian wheeled vehicles. This weather change may have influenced recent Russian military decisions in the area.
Chechen commander Apty Alaudinov claimed that Russian forces have recaptured about half of the territory Ukrainian forces had taken in Kursk Oblast since August 2024. Independent analysis suggests Russian forces may have retaken approximately 46 percent of the Ukrainian-held area in the region, based on available evidence and Russian claims.
A Russian Tu-134 military transport aircraft was reportedly destroyed by fire at the Orenburg-2 military airfield in Orenburg Oblast, Russia, on Oct. 13. Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) shared footage of the incident without claiming responsibility and reported that the fire occurred at the “Orenburg-2” Military Airfield near Orenburg City. The airfield is located about 1,250 kilometers from the Ukrainian front line. The Tu-134, formerly used for commercial flights, is now primarily utilized for military transport, including carrying Russian Defense Ministry leadership and high-ranking Russian military officials. The cause of the fire and the extent of damage are not independently verified.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly advanced in Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. They claim to have moved along Korolenka Street in northern Vovchansk, though this is unconfirmed. Ukrainian sources report Russian attacks near Starytsya. Russian special forces and motorized rifle units are said to be operating in the area, including near Lyptsi. The situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast remains active with ongoing Russian offensive operations.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly made minor advances northwest of Kreminna, continuing operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. They are focusing attacks near Zhuravka Balka, Makiivka, Bilohorivka, and the Serebryanske forest area. Russian attacks were also reported in numerous settlements near Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched an offensive near Verkhnokamyanske, east of Siversk. No confirmed changes to the frontline were reported because of this operation.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Chasiv Yar with no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian blogger claimed advances east and southwest of the town, but these reports are unverified. Russian operations also occurred near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Stupochky.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces reclaimed positions in central Toretsk, despite ongoing Russian attacks in the area. Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Toretsk and reportedly advanced near Shcherbynivka, though this claim is unverified.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces launched attacks near Pokrovsk targeting multiple settlements in the area including Promin, Novotoretske, and Myrnohrad. Despite claims of advances near Myrnohrad, no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported. The offensive operations extended to several other nearby locations, but results remain unverified.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces launched a large, mechanized assault near Kurakhove, which Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled, destroying several armored vehicles. Claims of Russian capture of Ostrivske remain unconfirmed. Russian offensive operations continued near Maksymilyanivka.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced northwest of Vodyane, near Vuhledar. They continued offensive operations in several areas around Vuhledar, including Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, and Zolota Nyva. Some claims of Russian advances remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces reportedly advanced near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, with claims of progress northeast of Pryyutne and north of Levadne, though frontline changes remain unconfirmed. Russia claims to have captured the village of Levadne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, located about 170 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia city, amid renewed attacks in the region. Ukrainian officials dispute the claim of a major offensive, describing the situation as “dynamically developing” with only local ground assaults. They noted Russian troop movements from Novoazovsk towards Vremivka or Polohy and warned of a Russian troop buildup potentially preparing for a breakthrough near Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka. Russian forces reportedly struck Novodarivka with unguided rockets and were said to be operating in Levadne. Recently, Russian forces have intensified attacks on Zaporizhzhia, including the use of guided aerial bombs on civilian infrastructure.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodanylivka in western Zaporizhia Oblast. However, no confirmed territorial gains were reported from these assaults.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
The Ukrainian military reported that Russian forces conducted attacks in the Dnipro area. These attacks likely occurred in eastern Kherson Oblast and on islands in the Dnipro River Delta.
Ukraine News
Russian forces took a break from their usual attacks on Ukraine, pausing their daily Shahed drone attacks for the first time since late August, breaking a 48-day streak. Colonel Yuriy Ihnat of the Ukrainian Air Force noted this was the first night in 48 days without attempted Shahed drone strikes from Russia. Despite this lull in drone attacks, Russia continued its aggression by launching guided aerial bombs against Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Ukraine has presented a five-step victory plan to Western leaders, seeking increased support to end Russia’s war. Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak revealed that the plan includes requests for more ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, along with permission to strike military targets within Russia. Ukraine argues this could pressure Putin to end the war. While Ukraine has received long-range weapons from allies, their use has been restricted to targets outside Russian territory. Podolyak warned that without further aid, the conflict could persist for years, potentially forcing Ukraine into unfavorable negotiations. The full details of the plan are expected to be published soon, as Ukraine urges decisive action from partners to end the war by next year.
Hundreds of Ukrainian institutions, including schools, businesses, embassies, and media outlets, received bomb threats via email, prompting evacuations. The threats appeared linked to a recent Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) investigation into Russian security services’ sabotage efforts in Ukraine. The emails named RFE/RL journalists and claimed to be from a “terrorist group” associated with an anti-Ukrainian Telegram channel. No explosives were found during police searches. RFE/RL’s president stated they would not be intimidated and would continue reporting. My own daughter had to stand outside for hours while her school was searched.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 8 INJURIES: 18
Russian forces attacked a civilian vehicle near Beryslav in Kherson Oblast using a first-person view (FPV) drone. The attack killed two women, aged 72 and 56, and injured two others. This incident is part of a reported increase in indiscriminate drone attacks on civilians in the region, which locals have dubbed a “human safari.”
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Odesa’s port infrastructure, marking the fourth strike on civilian vessels at Ukrainian ports since October 5. The attack hit two ships, the NS Moon and the Optima, along with port infrastructure and a grain warehouse, killing one person and injuring eight others. All victims were Ukrainian port employees. This incident is part of recent increased Russian strikes on Odesa Oblast’s ports, which Ukrainian officials say aim to reduce the country’s export potential, potentially trigger a global food crisis, undermine Ukraine’s grain corridor and international support, weaken Ukraine’s economic potential, and push for premature negotiations.
In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks resulted in four deaths in the town of Chasiv Yar and the villages of Zvanivka and Vyshneve. Three additional people were injured in the region over the past day.
In Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian drone attack on the town of Kupiansk injured a 56-year-old man.
Russian forces attacked eight settlements in Kherson Oblast, including Kherson city, killing one person and injuring four others. The attacks damaged residential buildings, cars, gas pipelines, and a warehouse.
The aftermath of a Russian FPV drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Kherson Oblast. (Ukraine’s Interior Ministry/X)
The aftermath of one of the Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast. (Vadym Filashkin/Telegram)
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukrainian officials reported that 46 military personnel failed to return to duty after vacationing abroad since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. These individuals are now classified as deserters. While this issue is uncommon, draft evasion remains a concern. Recently, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested six suspects involved in draft evasion schemes in Kyiv and Kherson. The government is reviewing its draft deferment system, which currently exempts about 1.5 million people from mobilization. An audit of enterprises classified as critical for employee reservation from mobilization is set to conclude on November 15.
Ukraine’s Allies
The EU has imposed sanctions on 14 individuals and entities involved in Iran’s missile and drone shipments to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine. This move aligns with similar actions by the U.S. and other Western powers. The sanctions target Iranian airlines, procurement companies, missile propellant producers, and high-ranking officials, including the Deputy Defense Minister and key figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that Iran’s support for Russia’s war must stop.
German opposition leader Friedrich Merz has expressed openness to supplying Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, but with conditions. This stance contrasts with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s firm refusal to provide these weapons. Merz suggests first appealing to Russia to stop attacking civilian targets in Ukraine. If unsuccessful, he proposes allowing Ukraine unrestricted use of existing weapons, followed by supplying Taurus missiles. The Taurus, with a range exceeding 500 kilometers, outperforms similar missiles Ukraine has received from other allies. Merz, currently leading in polls for the upcoming election, criticizes the ruling coalition’s public discussion of strategy and advocates for a European-level decision on the matter. While Western long-range weapons have been used within Ukraine, their use on Russian soil remains restricted. Scholz faces pressure from opponents and coalition partners to approve the Taurus supply but maintains his refusal.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials in occupied Ukraine are intensifying efforts to eradicate Ukrainian identity among children. Kherson occupation official Yevgeny Brykov described pro-Ukrainian sentiments as a “virus” needing treatment through Russian “military-patriotic education.” In Mariupol, children were seen participating in “Orlyata Rossii,” a pro-Russian youth program. Ukrainian officials warn of increasing Russian indoctrination tactics, including threats of fines for parents who don’t send children to Russian-run schools and the militarization of school curricula in occupied areas like Berdyansk.
Life in Ukrainian-Occupied Russia
Russian Ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova reported that 112,337 residents of Kursk Oblast have left their homes due to hostilities, according to Russia’s Emergency Ministry. This includes 12,328 people in temporary facilities and about 100,000 staying with relatives. The evacuation increased after Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into Kursk Oblast in August, where Ukraine initially claimed to seize 1,300 square kilometers but now faces pressure from Russian reinforcements. Ukraine has stated it will follow international humanitarian law regarding Russian civilians in the area and invited the U.N. and ICRC to assist with humanitarian efforts.
Russia News
Russia is evading Western oil sanctions by using a “shadow fleet” of old, poorly insured tankers to transport 70% of its seaborne oil exports. This fleet, expanded with a $10 billion investment since 2022, helps Russia circumvent the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by the G7. The Kyiv School of Economics Institute reports that these aging vessels, averaging 18 years old, pose significant environmental risks. The institute recommends stricter regulations, including mandatory insurance disclosure and potential sanctions on non-compliant vessels, to address safety concerns without significantly disrupting global oil markets.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2023 for his role in deporting Ukrainian children. As Brazil is an ICC member, it’s obligated to arrest Putin if he attends the upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro in November. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin emphasized this obligation, though Brazilian officials haven’t confirmed Putin’s attendance. Putin previously visited Mongolia, another ICC member state, in September without being arrested, which Ukrainian lawmakers called a “provocation.” Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated that the decision to detain Putin would be left to Brazil’s judiciary.
A Moscow court sentenced French national Laurent Vinatier to over three years in prison for violating Russia’s “foreign agents” law. Vinatier, who works for the Swiss Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, was arrested in June for failing to register as a foreign agent. Russian investigators claim he also pleaded guilty to illegally obtaining military information, though this cannot be independently verified. Critics view the “foreign agents” law as a tool to suppress opposition. Russia has been accused of detaining foreigners on dubious charges to use as bargaining chips in prisoner exchanges with Western countries.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1210
671400 |
Tanks +13
8988 |
Artillery +9
19430 |
Arm. VEH +44
17939 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that the Kremlin’s “Time of Heroes” program, which places Ukraine war veterans in government positions, aims to boost military recruitment. Sources say some appointees lack qualifications and are given roles without real influence. The program, which included appointments during September 2024 regional elections, is reportedly meant to show veterans are “well employed in civilian life” after service. Samara Oblast appointed a war veteran as acting vice-governor and head of anti-corruption.
Russian authorities are reportedly forcing migrant prisoners from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to give up their citizenship, become Russian citizens, and sign military contracts to fight in Ukraine. Prison guards are allegedly mistreating these prisoners to coerce them into joining the Russian military.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it has created a training course for first-person view (FPV) drone operators in occupied Kherson Oblast. This move may be in response to recent outrage among Russian military bloggers after a commander disbanded a drone unit and sent operators into combat, resulting in casualties. The new course will include theory, simulations, and hands-on training.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova claimed that Ukraine forcibly removed up to 1,000 Russians from Kursk Oblast and deported children to Austria. These accusations, made without evidence, appear to be an attempt to deflect from Russia’s own documented human rights violations in Ukraine. Moskalkova’s claims also seem aimed at undermining Ukraine’s efforts to provide humanitarian support in areas of Kursk Oblast where Russian authorities reportedly failed to do so following a Ukrainian incursion in August 2024.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com