Summary of the Day:
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reports that North Korea has transferred approximately 1,500 special forces troops to eastern Russia for training before deployment to Ukraine. Footage has emerged that appears to support these claims, though it cannot independently validate the intelligence reports. This development suggests a deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Russian forces are intensifying mechanized activity in western Donetsk Oblast, despite the onset of muddy autumn conditions. They have made recent advances near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. This increased activity indicates Russia’s determination to maintain offensive pressure even as weather conditions deteriorate.
Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin continues to signal disinterest in meaningful peace negotiations with Ukraine. He is using the upcoming BRICS summit to legitimize Kremlin information operations that falsely portray Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate. At the same time, Western partners are announcing new military assistance packages for Ukraine, demonstrating ongoing international support for Ukraine’s defense efforts.
Concerns are growing over the treatment of prisoners of war, as Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reports more than 100 confirmed cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs. This alarming development suggests a significant escalation in war crimes and violations of international conventions.
Picture of the Day:
Relatives welcome Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) following a prisoner swap with Russia at an undisclosed location. Ukraine exchanged 95 soldiers for an equal number of its forces in the first major POW return in more than a month. (Andrew Kravchenko/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
In response to a German media report claiming Ukraine could quickly develop nuclear weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in nuclear saber-rattling. He warned of an “appropriate reaction” if Ukraine pursued nuclear weapons, calling it a “dangerous provocation.” Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky, denied these allegations. Putin’s comments come amid discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine. This appears to be part of Russia’s ongoing strategy to discredit Ukraine and discourage Western aid. Despite Putin’s rhetoric, experts assess that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum committed Russia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine giving up Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory.
Romania’s Defense Ministry reported scrambling four fighter jets in response to a small flying object, likely a drone, that entered Romanian airspace near Amzacea and flew 14 kilometers into the country. In a separate incident, Belarus also responded to drones approaching its border.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has unveiled a “victory plan” to end the war with Russia, but it has been met with skepticism in Kyiv. The plan calls for Ukraine to join NATO, deploy a non-nuclear force on Ukrainian territory, and allow Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russia with Western-supplied weapons. While some officials support the plan, many Kyiv residents express doubts about its feasibility. Concerns include Ukraine’s need for more resources, ongoing corruption issues, and a shortage of fighters. The plan comes as Ukraine faces mounting pressure to find an exit strategy amid battlefield losses and increased Russian attacks on infrastructure.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to send mixed signals about peace negotiations with Ukraine. At a recent meeting with BRICS media heads, Putin claimed Russia is open to talks but also vowed to continue fighting until victory. He falsely portrayed Ukraine as the aggressor and unwilling to negotiate. Putin promoted alternative peace plans from Brazil and China that favor Russia’s position. These statements appear to be part of a strategy to pressure Western countries into pushing Ukraine towards concessions, rather than a genuine interest in meaningful negotiations. The Kremlin seems to be using the upcoming BRICS summit to legitimize its narrative on the conflict.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are intensifying mechanized activity in western Donetsk Oblast, increasing the use of armored vehicles and tanks in assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. This surge comes as muddy ground conditions are expected to set in. Notable attacks include a battalion-sized assault near Kostyantynivka with 27 armored vehicles and six tanks, and another near Maksymilyanivka with 33 armored vehicles. Ukrainian forces report successfully repelling these attacks and destroying numerous Russian vehicles. The frequency of large-scale mechanized assaults has significantly increased, with three battalion-sized attacks observed in the past week alone, compared to only four such attacks from July to early October.
This intensification likely aims to secure advances across open fields before weather conditions worsen and consolidate positions for future offensives. Muddy conditions will limit infantry and small vehicle movement, potentially increasing reliance on tracked vehicles like tanks and armored personnel carriers. This shift in tactics mirrors Russia’s strategy from Fall 2023, when they sought to retain initiative despite challenging weather conditions. The Russian military appears determined to sustain offensive momentum throughout the autumn season, adapting tactics to overcome environmental obstacles and maintain pressure through mechanized operations, even as muddy autumn conditions hinder infantry effectiveness.
Ukraine and Russia conducted their 58th prisoner exchange, swapping 95 detainees each, totaling 190 prisoners of war. Among the 95 Ukrainians returned were human rights activist Maksym Butkevych, who had been in captivity since June 2022 and was previously sentenced to 13 years by Russian-appointed authorities, and 34 Azov Regiment soldiers who defended Mariupol and Azovstal. The exchange included soldiers from various Ukrainian oblasts. Many of the Russian prisoners were conscripts captured during Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into Kursk Oblast in August, which has significantly contributed to Ukraine’s prisoner exchange fund. The swap also included some mobilized Russian fighters and Kadyrovtsy troops. The United Arab Emirates reportedly assisted in brokering the exchange. Since the start of the full-scale war, 3,767 Ukrainian POWs have returned home. The Russian organization “Our Way Out” reported that 71 of the 95 returned Russians were located through Ukraine’s “I Want to Find” project, which has helped locate over 500 missing Russian soldiers.
Ukraine has repatriated 501 fallen soldiers’ bodies from Russia-occupied territories. Most were retrieved from Donetsk Oblast, with a few from Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. One body was returned from a Russian morgue. The bodies will be identified and given to families for burial. This effort involved multiple Ukrainian agencies. President Zelensky reported about 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since the full-scale invasion began.
Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reports over 100 confirmed cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), with the actual number likely much higher. This is part of a recent increase in Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on POWs. The European Union states at least 177 Ukrainian POWs have died in Russian captivity since February 2022. Ukrainian officials note that 80% of the 93 recorded battlefield executions of Ukrainian POWs occurred in 2024, indicating a significant rise in these war crimes. This trend suggests a systematic deterioration in the treatment of POWs by Russian forces.
Russian sources claimed that air defense and electronic warfare units intercepted eight Ukrainian cruise missiles over Crimea.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast, Ukraine. Footage shows Russian forces pushing west of Malaya Loknya. Russian sources claim advances and partial encirclements near Lyubimovka, Tolsty Lug, Zeleny Shlyakh, and Plekhovo. They also report gains in areas around Korenevo and Sudzha. Ukrainian counterattacks were allegedly repelled near Zeleny Shlyakh and Lyubimovka. These claims lack full visual confirmation. Fighting continued in Glushkovsky Raion near Novy Put. While a Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces were pushed out of Novy Put, there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area southwest of Glushkovo.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, head of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, denied reports that Ukrainian forces had entered Zhuravlevka, a village north of Kharkiv City across the Russia-Ukraine border. Gladkov stated that Russian forces maintain full control of Zhuravlevka.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks near Vovchansk and Starytsya, northeast of Kharkiv City. While a Russian source claimed advances in Vovchansk, no frontline changes were confirmed. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked along the Kharkiv Oblast border. A Ukrainian military spokesperson noted the use of low-quality North Korean artillery shells by Russian forces in the area, though distinguishing them from old Soviet ammunition is challenging.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. They moved into central and northern Kruhlyakivka and a forest area west of Dibrova. Russian sources claim further advances near Vyshneve, Nevske, and Novosadove, though these are unconfirmed. Offensive operations continued in various settlements around Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna. Rainy weather is reportedly affecting Ukrainian operations near Kreminna.
By day’s end, Ukrainian forces had liberated the village of Kruhlyakivka in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian control. The operation, conducted from Oct. 7-14, resulted in driving out Russian troops and mining their movement routes. Kruhlyakivka is considered strategically important for the defense of Kupiansk, a key town 40 kilometers from the Russian border.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Recent reports from Russian military bloggers suggest Russian forces made advances north of Verkhnokamyanske, near Siversk. However, these claims remain unconfirmed, with no verified changes to the frontline in the Siversk area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacking near Chasiv Yar with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claimed advances southeast of Chasiv Yar and northwest of Kalynivka, but these remain unverified. Attacks were reported near Hryhorivka, Minkivka, Ivanivske, and Stupochky.
Russian forces have not established a foothold across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, according to Anastasia Bobovnikova from the Operational Tactical Group Luhansk. While small Russian assault groups occasionally cross the canal, they are quickly repelled by Ukrainian forces. The strategic position of Chasiv Yar, a city in Donetsk Oblast with high ground, remains under Ukrainian control. Russia has been targeting the city since capturing Avdiivka in February, as part of its slow advance in eastern Ukraine.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked near Toretsk and surrounding areas, including Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, Romanivka, Sukha Balka, and Nelipivka. No confirmed frontline changes were reported. A Ukrainian spokesperson noted small Russian assault groups struggling in Toretsk.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces attacked east and southeast of Pokrovsk with no confirmed frontline changes. Russian sources claimed advances near Selydove and Tsukuryne. Ukrainian officials reported Russian attacks on Selydove from Marynivka and Mykhailivka. Assaults continued near Promin, Novotoretske, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, and several other settlements in the area.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced east of Kurakhove with confirmed progress in central and western Maksymilyanivka. Russian sources claim full control of Maksymilyanivka and advances near Kurakhove, though these are unconfirmed. Attacks continued near Kurakhove, Hostre, Heorhiivka, and Dalnye.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks southwest of Donetsk City with no confirmed frontline changes. A Russian source claimed a 1km advance near Katerynivka. Assaults were reported near several settlements including Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vuhledar.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces made recent advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. Confirmed footage shows Russian progress north of Pryyutne, southwest of Velyka Novosilka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured Levadne in the past week, but this remains unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked in western Zaporizhia Oblast targeting areas near Robotyne, including Novodanylivka and Novoandriivka. No frontline changes were confirmed. A Russian source reported Ukrainian electronic warfare and generator shortages affecting Russian communications. Ukrainian officials described the combat as low-intensity.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in eastern Kherson Oblast with no confirmed advances. Ukrainian officials reported Russian aerial reconnaissance and preparations for assaults on Dnipro River Delta islands.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine overnight using at least 135 Shahed and other combat UAVs. The assault, originating from Russian territories including Kursk, Oryol, and Krasnodar Krai, lasted over five hours. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down 80 drones across 14 oblasts, while 44 were “lost in location,” resulting in less than 7% hitting their targets. Two drones entered Belarusian airspace. The air alert in Kyiv lasted more than four hours, but all enemy UAVs targeting the capital were neutralized without casualties or destruction. Ukrainian officials did not confirm reported strikes on airfields in Rivne and Zhytomyr oblasts. The attack affected multiple regions, including Kyiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv.
Ukraine is set to increase taxes significantly for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion, aiming to boost revenue for military spending. The new bill includes raising the military levy on salaries and incomes, imposing a 50% income tax on banks, and increasing various other taxes. This is expected to generate billions in additional tax income for 2024 and 2025. While some lawmakers argue for these measures to support defense needs, businesses express concerns about the impact. The government claims recent efforts have already improved tax efficiency in several sectors, including alcohol, fuel, and gambling. However, challenges remain with an estimated 50% of the economy still operating in the shadow sector.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine is enhancing its drone capabilities to counter Russian attacks, as reported by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The country is developing interceptor drones as an alternative to anti-aircraft missiles and implementing automation systems for more effective defense. Ukraine has successfully used drones to strike Russian targets, including warships, naval bases, and military facilities. The military is also focusing on protecting critical infrastructure ahead of potential Russian strikes on the energy sector this winter.
Ukraine’s Allies
Western countries have announced significant new military aid packages for Ukraine, demonstrating continued support for its defense efforts. Germany has become Ukraine’s second-largest military donor after the U.S., allocating $16.2 billion in aid, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, radar systems, drones, and air defense systems, though it still hesitates to supply Taurus long-range missiles. The Netherlands has provided $6.9 billion, including artillery shells and six DITA howitzers ordered from the Czech Republic. NATO is working to provide the remainder of its promised €40 billion in aid by June 2025. Other countries have also made substantial contributions: Canada pledged $47 million for small arms, ammunition, and training; the Baltic states committed 0.25% of their GDP; and Denmark announced a $350 million package, its 21st since Russia’s invasion, bringing its total recent allocation to nearly $980 million.
Denmark’s latest package includes weapons from Danish stockpiles, funding for air defense systems in cooperation with Germany, contributions to the UK-led International Fund for Ukraine, and expanded training for Ukrainian military. The country is also considering further support for Ukraine’s defense industry, particularly in drones. These announcements, along with contributions from other nations like Canada and the Baltic states, underscore the broad international commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russian aggression.
President Joe Biden visited Germany to urge NATO allies to continue supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia, emphasizing the need to sustain support until Ukraine achieves “a just and sustainable peace.” Leaders from the U.S., France, Germany, and the UK met in Berlin to discuss Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recently revealed five-point “victory plan” and additional aid. The plan includes NATO invitation, defense, deterrence, economic cooperation, and post-war security, though some parts remain confidential. While Western leaders support Ukraine joining NATO, no specific timeline has been set, and U.S. Ambassador Julianne Smith confirmed there’s no immediate plan to invite Ukraine to NATO.
The plan has received mixed reactions from allies. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that it will be reassessed after the U.S. presidential election, noting a lack of consensus among EU leaders. Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz expressed less optimism, citing difficult frontline situations and war fatigue among allies. There are concerns about potentially reduced U.S. military support if Donald Trump returns to the White House. As Ukraine faces a challenging winter and battlefield losses in the east, Biden’s visit aims to reinforce the commitment to Ukraine and strengthen the transatlantic alliance. The West must ensure Ukraine’s victory and Putin’s failure, according to Biden, though Zelensky’s request for immediate NATO membership has not been agreed upon.
The European Council stated that Russian assets should remain frozen until Moscow ends its war on Ukraine and pays for damages, estimated by the World Bank at up to $486 billion. The EU plans to use profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction and defense. EU ambassadors recently agreed on a $37.2 billion loan to Ukraine as part of a larger G7 aid initiative. This loan, expected to be distributed early next year, will allow Ukraine flexibility in spending to address its war-torn economy and damaged infrastructure.
Ukraine, now considered the most heavily mined country in the world, is receiving international support for demining efforts. At a conference in Switzerland, over 40 countries committed to help clear mines and explosives from nearly a quarter of Ukraine’s territory, an area of about 140,000 square kilometers. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal emphasized the massive scale of the problem, with experts estimating up to 9,000 civilian lives at risk. The World Bank estimates the demining cost at $37 billion. Countries pledged to support agricultural rehabilitation, victim assistance, and the development of innovative demining technologies. Ukraine is seeking more demining machines to accelerate the process, as one machine can accomplish in a day what manual labor would take 100 days to complete.
A report by Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO) reveals that a North Korean KN-23/24 missile launched by Russia at Ukraine in September contained components from at least nine Western manufacturers. The missile, shot down near Myrne and Bilyky in Poltava Oblast, included microelectronics from U.S., Swiss, British, and Dutch companies, with some components produced as recently as 2023. This discovery highlights Russia’s deepening military cooperation with North Korea and its ability to bypass Western sanctions. NAKO’s broader investigation has found that many Russian weapons contain Western-made components. Additionally, President Zelensky has warned that Russia plans to involve about 10,000 North Korean soldiers in its war against Ukraine in the coming months.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
An explosion in occupied Luhansk City may have killed Dmitry Pervukh, commander of the Russian 273rd Command Intelligence Center. Russian authorities are investigating the incident, which reportedly killed a man and injured a woman. The attack, possibly carried out by Ukrainian partisans using an improvised explosive device (IED), targeted a Russian military vehicle in the city center.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Russian forces suffered their second deadliest day of the full-scale invasion with 1,530 casualties reported by Ukraine’s Armed Forces. This follows a trend of high Russian losses in recent months, with five of the top ten bloodiest days occurring in September and October 2023. To address manpower shortages, Putin recently increased Russian military personnel by 180,000. Despite these losses, Russia continues to conduct mass infantry attacks in eastern Ukraine, reflecting a military strategy that prioritizes quantity over preservation of troops.
| Troops +1380
677180 |
Tanks +8
9035 |
Artillery +15
19548 |
Arm. VEH +19
18072 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities in Sverdlovsk Oblast are reportedly resisting the Kremlin’s recruitment demands. Governor Yevgeny Kuyvashev is said to be unhappy with the Defense Ministry’s recruitment goals for the region, citing them as unrealistic. He’s seeking to reduce the number of required recruits, with support from local industrialists facing labor shortages. This comes as many Russian regions have increased signing bonuses for contract soldiers, indicating ongoing recruitment challenges despite continued efforts to generate new forces.
Russia’s Allies
Reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) and Ukrainian intelligence suggest that North Korea is sending a significant number of troops to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The NIS reports that approximately 1,500 special forces troops, believed to be from an elite unit known as the “Storm Corps,” were transported by Russian ships from North Korean ports to Vladivostok between October 8-13. These troops are currently stationed in several Russian cities, wearing Russian uniforms and carrying fake IDs. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov claims that nearly 11,000 North Korean infantry are training in Russia, with the first group of 2,600 soldiers expected to deploy to Russia’s Kursk Oblast by November 1.
The total number of North Korean troops potentially joining the conflict varies in different reports. The NIS estimates that North Korea could send up to 12,000 soldiers in total, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned 10,000 North Korean soldiers being prepared to fight against Ukraine. Some reports indicate that North Korean officers are already present in occupied territories. These deployments, if confirmed, are seen as part of a strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea, potentially helping Russia avoid further mobilization of its own citizens.
Recent footage has emerged allegedly showing North Korean soldiers at Russian training grounds. One video reportedly shows Russian forces equipping North Korean troops with Russian uniforms and gear at a location in Sergeevka, Primorsky Krai, home to the 127th Motorized Rifle Division. Parts of this division are currently operating in Kursk Oblast and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area. While these videos align with intelligence reports, their authenticity and location cannot be independently verified. Ukrainian fact-checkers have stated they cannot confirm or deny the soldiers’ identities in one video due to unclear audio and lack of distinguishing features.
The potential deployment of North Korean troops has raised concerns among South Korean officials and international observers. South Korea’s presidential office warned that North Korean troops being sent to Russia pose a “grave security threat” to the international community. The White House couldn’t confirm these reports but noted it would indicate increased cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Moscow and Pyongyang have deepened military ties, with North Korea reportedly supplying Russia with significant amounts of weapons and ammunition, including missiles and artillery shells, since August. While NATO and the Pentagon have not confirmed the presence of North Korean forces in Russia, the situation, if true, could indicate Russia’s desperation for additional military personnel in its war against Ukraine.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
The US Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program has offered up to $10 million for information on foreigners interfering in US elections, specifically targeting the Kremlin-backed milblogger channel Rybar and nine of its employees. Rybar, founded by the late Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and currently supported by Russian state defense company Rostec, operates social media accounts aimed at promoting discord in the US and Russian government interests. The organization manages conservative-leaning channels and recently created “TEXASvsUSA” to exploit border issues. This action highlights ongoing concerns about Russian election interference, following accusations of involvement in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and demonstrates the Kremlin’s efforts to expand its influence in international information spaces.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com