Russian Forces Capture Nelipivka Just South of Toretsk – Day 969 (October 19, 2024)

Summary of the Day:

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the “Kremniy El” microelectronics plant in Bryansk City, Russia, on the night of October 18-19. The plant is a major supplier for the Russian military, producing components for various weapon systems including air defense systems, missiles, and electronic warfare equipment. This attack could potentially disrupt Russian military production capabilities.

Ukrainian authorities have opened an investigation into the alleged execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war by Russian forces near the Phenol Plant in Niu York, Donetsk Oblast, on September 6, 2024. The Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office is investigating this as a potential war crime, violating the Geneva Convention on POWs.

On the battlefield, Russian forces have made recent advances in multiple areas. They progressed within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk oblast, potentially threatening Ukrainian positions there. Additionally, Russian troops advanced near the towns of Toretsk and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, as well as near Donetsk City itself, indicating ongoing efforts to push back Ukrainian defenses in the region.

Picture of the Day:

a statue of a man in front of a damaged buildingThe French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha pay tribute at the memory wall of fallen defenders of Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian War in Kyiv. The French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot arrived in Ukraine for a two-day visit. This is his first visit to Ukraine in this position. (Eduard Kryzhanivskyi / Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War

Romanian radar detected an unidentified object near the Black Sea during Russia’s attack on Ukraine, marking the second airspace violation this week. On Oct. 17, Romania and Belarus scrambled jets in response to similar intrusions. Romania deployed F-16s and Spanish F-18s, but in both cases, the targets disappeared before visual contact. As a NATO member, Romania has reported multiple airspace violations since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, including drone debris found on its territory.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia

Russian forces have made recent advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, pushing west of Russkaya Konopelka and reportedly capturing Lyubimovka and Leonidovo. They are allegedly moving towards Malaya Loknya and Viktorovka, advancing near Martynovka, and partially encircling Plekhovo. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks within their main salient in Kursk Oblast, near Leonidovo, Lyubimovka, and Zeleny Shlyakh, according to Russian sources including the Russian Ministry of Defense. Additionally, a Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces repelled small Ukrainian attacks near Volfino and Tetkino in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the “Kremniy El” microelectronics plant in Bryansk City, Russia, a major supplier for the Russian military that produces components for various weapon systems. The strike, which occurred about 100 km north of Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, was acknowledged by Ukrainian officials, and photos of the damage were published online. The attack caused a fire at the facility, with the Bryansk Oblast Governor mentioning a blaze at a “non-residential building” caused by drone debris, likely referring to this incident. Russia claims to have downed multiple Ukrainian drones over several regions during this operation. While fires were reported in “non-residential buildings,” no casualties were mentioned by Bryansk’s governor.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces continued attacks near Vovchansk and Starytsya, northeast of Kharkiv City. However, they did not make any confirmed progress in these areas.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces advanced in Kruhlyakivka, southeast of Kupyansk, reaching Luhova Street near the Oskil River during a large, mechanized assault. This advance aims to pressure Ukrainian positions along the Oskil River. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed or damaged several Russian vehicles while repelling the attack, and made a small advance in northern Kruhlyakivka, reclaiming positions on Osinnia Street. Concurrently, Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with fighting reported in various settlements including Hlubivka, Synkivka, Kucherivka, Novoosynove, Vyshneve, Terny, and Serebryanka. Russian claims of advances in Kolisnykivka and Torske remain unconfirmed.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Siversk

There were no reports of offensive operations in the Siversk direction from either Ukrainian or Russian sources. A Russian source noted that poor weather conditions in the area were hindering both sides’ ability to effectively use drones.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, but no confirmed frontline changes were reported. Attacks were conducted near and within Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky and Predtechyne to the south, and near Andriivka to the southeast. Russian sources claimed some advances in eastern Chasiv Yar but noted difficulties due to Ukrainian drone operations.

Toretsk

Recent footage indicates Russian forces have advanced in eastern Toretsk and likely seized Nelipivka. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Dyliivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and within Toretsk. Ukrainian sources report Russian units in the area are using outdated equipment and struggling to gain ground in Toretsk’s destroyed buildings. Russian motorized rifle elements are reportedly active northwest of Toretsk.

Pokrovsk

Recent footage shows Russian forces advancing near Vozdvyzhenka, east of Pokrovsk, and likely seizing Zhelanna Druhe. Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk area, including near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Novoukrainka, Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Kurakhivka, Selydove, and Mykhailivka. Russian claims of capturing Zoryane and advancing near Lysivka and Selydove remain unconfirmed.

West of Donetsk City

Recent footage shows Russian forces advancing in western Maksymilyanivka and conducting a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault south of the settlement. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kurakhove, Heorhiivka, Maksymilyanivka, and Dalnye. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Maksymilyanivka. Muddy conditions may be prompting increased Russian mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast.

Southwest of Donetsk City

Recent footage shows Russian forces making a small advance in western Zolota Nyva, northeast of Vuhledar. On October 19, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Antonivka, Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, and Bohoyavlenka in the Vuhledar area. Claims of Russian control over half of Katerynivka remain unconfirmed.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia

Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area

Russian forces attacked near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border with no confirmed frontline changes. Some Russian sources claimed advances towards Novodarivka from Levadne and Pryyutne, but these reports remain unverified.

Zaporizhia Line

Russian forces attacked near Robotyne targeting areas around Mala Tokmachka and towards Novodanylivka. Despite these assaults, no confirmed changes to the frontline were reported.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces attacked in the Kherson area, including east bank Kherson Oblast and islands near the Dnipro River mouth. No frontline changes were confirmed. A Russian source claimed their forces hit a bridge on the M-14 highway near Oleshky, just north of the town.

Ukraine News

Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine using 98 drones and 6 cruise missiles. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted 42 drones and 4 missiles over multiple regions, including Kyiv, where falling debris caused some damage. Another 46 drones were reportedly “lost in location.” Only 10% of drones and a third of missiles hit their targets. Russian sources claimed strikes on Cherkasy airport and energy infrastructure, but these remain unconfirmed.

G7 defense ministers reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s NATO integration during a meeting in Naples. They committed to providing ongoing military assistance and training to Ukraine’s defense forces. The ministers emphasized the goal of achieving a lasting peace that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, the U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, indicated that Ukraine’s NATO invitation is not likely in the short term, citing the need for reforms and security conditions to be met.

Ukrainian authorities have opened an investigation into the alleged execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war by Russian forces near the Phenol Plant in Niu York, Donetsk Oblast, on September 6, 2024. The Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office is investigating this as a potential war crime, violating the Geneva Convention on POWs. This incident is part of a recent increase in reported Russian violations of POW treatment guidelines. Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reports that Russian forces have executed at least 102 Ukrainian prisoners of war since 2022, based on data from the Prosecutor General’s Office, though the actual number is likely higher due to documentation difficulties. Multiple reports, including videos and photos, have surfaced showing evidence of executions, torture, and violent deaths of Ukrainian POWs in Russian captivity. Lubinets suggests Russia commits these acts to deter their own soldiers from surrendering and to demonstrate disregard for international law, while criticizing the lack of international response and legal action against these war crimes.

Innocent Victims Of War

The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)

DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 33+

Russia attacked Cherkasy Oblast in central Ukraine with missiles and drones, resulting in the death of an elderly woman in Uman district and damage to a critical infrastructure facility.

Russian forces attacked Donetsk Oblast, resulting in two deaths and two injuries. The strikes targeted the towns of Kurakhovo and Hirnyk.

Russian forces attacked Kherson Oblast, injuring nine people. The strikes damaged residential buildings, as well as educational and medical facilities.

Russian forces launched three aviation bomb strikes on Shostka, Sumy Oblast, overnight. A man’s body was found in the rubble, and eleven others were injured, including five rescuers from the local emergency service. The regional prosecutor’s office reported the attack, which hit the emergency service department while workers were in a shelter.

A drone attack on Kyiv overnight resulted in one woman being injured by shrapnel.

In Odesa, a missile strike damaged residential buildings and caused a fire, but no casualties were reported. In Chernihiv Oblast, an infrastructure facility was hit and caught fire.

Russian forces launched three air strikes on central Zaporizhzhia injuring at least 10 people, including two girls aged 9 and 13. The attack partially destroyed a residential building and damaged nearby businesses and vehicles. The National Police confirmed the use of high-explosive bombs in the attack.

A fire fighters standing in front of a building

Description automatically generatedThe aftermath of the Russian strike on Odesa. (Oleh Kiper, Odesa OVA (ODA)/Telegram)

A destroyed house with debris and a beam of light

Description automatically generated with medium confidenceRussia attacked the city of Zaporizhzhia causing damages to residential buildings and nearby shops. (National Police of Ukraine / Telegram) 

Ukraine’s Allies

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot visited Kyiv warning that a Russian victory in Ukraine would bring “chaos” to the international system. He expressed support for President Zelensky’s victory plan, which calls for increased Western military aid and Ukraine’s immediate NATO membership. Zelensky welcomed France’s support, saying it could bring “real diplomacy and a just peace closer.” The plan rejects territorial concessions and urges allies to allow Ukraine to strike military targets within Russia using Western-provided long-range weapons.

U.S. Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael Turner urged President Biden to respond to reports of North Korean troops preparing to join Russia’s war in Ukraine. Turner called for immediate action from the U.S. and NATO, describing the situation as a major escalation. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov reported that 2,600 North Korean soldiers are expected to be deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast, with a total of 11,000 troops potentially ready to fight in Ukraine by November 1. Turner requested an urgent classified briefing on the matter, emphasizing the need to prevent a broader conflict.

Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine

A Russian major, Dmitriy Pervukha, was killed in a car explosion in occupied Luhansk according to Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR). Pervukha, allegedly involved in war crimes against Ukraine, served in the Russian Armed Forces and held a position in the occupied territories. The Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case to investigate the incident. While HUR didn’t claim responsibility, it stated that crimes against Ukraine would be “justly punished.” Since Russia’s invasion began, numerous assassinations via car bombs have been reported in Russian-occupied areas.

Russian forces have established a torture chamber in the occupied town of Hornostaivka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine. Residents report numerous cases of abduction, torture, and murder by Russian occupation police since 2022. The former Ukrainian police station on Torhova Street has become the center of this terror.

Victims include Ruslan Rusnak, who died after interrogation, and Oleksandr Slisarenko, who went missing. Other residents like Volodymyr Ruchka and Serhii Klopot reportedly died after being detained and beaten. The Russians target former Ukrainian soldiers, business owners, and those showing pro-Ukrainian sentiment.

Russian police officers involved, including Andrey Polevshchikov and Volodymyr Pliukhin, have avoided accountability by joining the military. Residents who managed to flee describe ongoing brutality and trauma. The occupied territories remain inaccessible to Ukrainian authorities, hampering investigations into these war crimes.

Russian War Losses (Today/Total)

Troops +1340

troops

678520

Tanks +12

tanks

9047

Artillery +17

artillery

19565

Arm. VEH +39

armd-veh

18111

Aircraft

aircrafts

369

Heli

helicopters

329

Ships

ships

28

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

The Russian Ministry of Defense proposed a new benefit for Ukraine war volunteers. The draft resolution would automatically grant combat veteran status to volunteers from the start of their service, without requiring individual applications. This move likely aims to boost voluntary recruitment and avoid another unpopular mobilization.

Russian authorities in Khabarovsk Krai revoked the citizenship of three Tajik migrants for failing to register for military service. This marks the first use of a law passed in August 2024 allowing the government to strip naturalized citizenship from migrants who don’t immediately sign up for military duty.

Russia may boost its defense budget for 2024 by an extra 1.5 trillion rubles ($16 billion), according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. This increase, announced on October 19, is partly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The additional funds would support banks, service public debt, and meet the needs of the military and law enforcement agencies.

Source Material

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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