Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian President Zelensky has issued a warning about Russia’s imminent deployment of North Korean forces to combat zones on October 27-28. Dutch Defense Minister Brekelmans confirmed that approximately 1,500 North Korean troops are likely heading to Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, Putin claims that Western “fatigue” over supporting Ukraine is encouraging Russia’s continued invasion.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced near Borki and regained previously lost territory near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Russian forces made gains near Siversk and Pokrovsk, while also recapturing territory near Obukhovka. Putin has exaggerated Russian progress in Kursk Oblast, claiming 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers are encircled there, though Ukrainian officials dispute this assertion.
In domestic Russian developments, Putin appointed former Donetsk People’s Republic Battalion Commander Artyom Zhoga to the Russian Security Council, continuing his pattern of promoting younger, pro-war figures. Russian authorities also demonstrated unusually swift response to xenophobic riots in Korkino, detaining 30 participants. Meanwhile, Germany has bolstered Ukraine’s military capabilities by financing the delivery of 20 additional Marder infantry fighting vehicles through arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.
Picture of the Day:
A Russian Shahed-type kamikaze drone hit the 20th floor of a residential building in Kyiv. According to reports, one teenager was killed and five more people injured during the attack. More than 120 people were evacuated from the building. (Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, in a recent interview with Izvestia, firmly rejected the possibility of Belarus joining Russia and dismissed the notion that Putin intended to conquer Ukraine. While discussing the 1999 Union State treaty between the two countries, he warned that any attempt to absorb Belarus into Russia would mean war. Though Belarus is a close Russian ally and allowed Russian forces to use its territory as a launching point for the 2022 Ukraine invasion, Lukashenko emphasized maintaining his country’s independence while supporting strong bilateral relations with Russia.
Moldova’s EU referendum passed by a narrow margin of 50.38%, with just 11,000 votes determining the outcome. Moldovan authorities uncovered evidence of widespread Russian interference, including an alleged vote-buying scheme involving approximately 130,000 people. Fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor reportedly transferred $39 million for vote buying through Russian state-owned Promsvyazbank in Transnistria. The presidential election now moves to a November 3 runoff between pro-EU President Maia Sandu and former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is backed by pro-Kremlin forces. Analysts warn that continued Russian interference could lead to a pro-Moscow government in Moldova, potentially creating security risks for both Moldova and neighboring Ukraine.
Despite Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s claims that Russia doesn’t interfere in foreign elections, evidence suggests otherwise. While denying interference, Peskov openly supported Belarus President Lukashenko’s candidacy in the January 2025 elections. Meanwhile, Moldovan President Maia Sandu reported attempts to buy 300,000 votes in favor of pro-Russian candidates during recent elections. Similar Russian influence campaigns are being observed in Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, where Russian officials are promoting the Georgian Dream party while discrediting pro-Western opposition. This continues Russia’s pattern of trying to influence elections in former Soviet countries through various means.
Houthi militants in Yemen are reportedly using Russian satellite data to target ships in the Red Sea, according to Wall Street Journal sources. The data, provided through Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, has helped expand their attack capabilities. This development, along with potential arms deals involving Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout and possible transfers of Yakhont missiles, suggests growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and the Houthis in challenging Western interests in the region.
The Path to Peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that any peace agreement to end the war with Ukraine must favor Russia and be based on battlefield realities, rejecting any concessions or compromises. Speaking after the BRICS summit in Kazan, he suggested that growing Western “fatigue” over supporting Ukraine is encouraging Russia to continue its invasion, and in an interview with state TV channel Rossiya 1, Putin interpreted the West’s changing rhetoric as a positive sign for Russia’s goals. He insists Moscow will not negotiate while Ukrainian forces remain in Kursk Oblast, demands Ukraine surrender four oblasts Russia claimed in September 2022, and remains committed to defeating Ukraine’s military and government. While over 90 countries attended a peace summit in Switzerland in June, Russia was not invited and has dismissed future peace talks as fraudulent. Previous negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022 failed after Ukraine’s northern victories revealed Russian war crimes in liberated areas. However, analysts note that Putin’s strategy relies heavily on the assumption that Western nations will eventually abandon their support for Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Russia plans to deploy North Korean troops to combat zones on October 27-28, with initial forces being stationed in Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine launched an offensive in August. While exact numbers vary among sources, Ukrainian military intelligence reports nearly 12,000 North Korean troops in Russia, including 500 officers and three generals, Dutch Defense Minister Brekelmans estimates about 1,500 troops, South Korean lawmakers suggest around 3,000 soldiers (potentially increasing to 10,000 by December), and U.S. officials initially counted approximately 3,000 troops. Russian naval units in Kursk have expressed concerns about language barriers and command integration with the North Korean troops.
The U.S. government and National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby confirmed North Korean troops are present at multiple training sites in eastern Russia, with some expected to deploy to Kursk, though their specific role remains unclear. U.S. Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael R. Turner suggested considering direct military action against North Korean forces if they join the conflict. Ukraine claims that in exchange for military support, Russia is helping North Korea evade sanctions and develop nuclear capabilities, leading Zelensky to call for international pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang to comply with U.N. regulations.
North Korea’s foreign ministry stated any deployment of its troops to support Russia in Ukraine would comply with international law, though it did not confirm whether such a deployment had occurred and later dismissed the reports as “groundless rumors.” Russian President Putin, while not explicitly confirming troop deployments, defended this as Russia’s right under a strategic partnership treaty signed with North Korea in June 2024 and called it a “sovereign decision” between Moscow and Pyongyang. Russian officials suggest they would only use North Korean military support if attacked, with some analysts suggesting Russia might try to frame Ukraine as the aggressor to justify using North Korean forces.
Ukrainian forces successfully targeted Russian air defense systems in occupied Luhansk Oblast, destroying radar guidance equipment of a Buk-M2 and striking a Buk-M3 system on October 25, with the attack conducted by Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces hitting targets deep behind front lines, following a similar successful strike against a Buk-M3 system on October 21. Ukraine reports destroying 982 Russian anti-aircraft systems since the war began, and notably, the Buk system was previously used by Russian forces to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Recent military activities in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast show both Ukrainian and Russian forces making territorial gains. Ukrainian forces advanced near Borki, while Russian forces recaptured positions near Obukhovka. Combat was reported around several settlements including Novoivanovka, Plekhovo, Darino, Zeleny Shlyakh, Alexandriya, Russkaya Konopelka, and Kireyevka.
Fighting occurred in Kursk Oblast’s Glushkovsky Raion on October 25, focused on the settlement of Novy Put. While Russian sources claimed to repel a Ukrainian attack involving tanks and armored vehicles, and suggested some Ukrainian forces retreated across the border, these claims remain unconfirmed.
According to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukrainian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Russian forces in Kursk Oblast since August 6, including 6,662 killed, 10,446 wounded, and 711 captured. While Ukraine initially claimed control of 1,300 square kilometers in Kursk, they now face increased Russian resistance. The situation is expected to intensify as North Korean troops, reportedly numbering nearly 12,000, are scheduled to join Russian forces in the combat zone starting October 27-28.
Russian President Putin claimed that about 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers are “encircled” in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, though he failed to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces can freely move across sections of the Ukrainian-Russian border under their control. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi disputed Putin’s claims of Ukrainian forces being surrounded and suffering heavy losses. Instead, Syrskyi reported that Russia has lost 17,819 troops, including 711 prisoners, since August 8. Analysts suggest Putin may be exaggerating Russian success in Kursk Oblast to reassure Russians about their military’s performance, especially as North Korean troops are expected to deploy to this area.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsya in northern Kharkiv Oblast but made no confirmed territorial gains.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 25. While they claimed advances near Stelmakhivka and control of Kruhlyakivka, these claims are unconfirmed. Combat occurred near multiple settlements including Holubivka, Pishchane, Lozova, Kolisnykivka, Novoosynove, Vyshneve, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Tverdokhlibove, Terny, Zarichne, Torske, and Serebryanka. Russian forces reportedly targeted bridges over the Oskil River to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces made progress near Siversk with confirmed advances near Verkhnokamyanka. Russian troops also launched attacks around Vyimka and Ivano-Darivka.
Chasiv Yar
Ukrainian forces recaptured positions near Chasiv Yar, specifically around Mine Block 9. Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar and Predtechyne, though their progress is hampered by rainy conditions.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces recovered positions in southern Toretsk on October 25, specifically along Tobolenka Street. While Russian forces claimed advances in Shcherbynivka, these remain unconfirmed.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced southeast of Pokrovsk with Russian forces regaining positions near Mine No. 1 by Novohrodivka. Russian troops made progress in Selydove, including its northern sector and central streets. Fighting continues across multiple settlements including Vyshneve, Kreminna Balka, Novodmytrivka, and Hirnyk.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks east of Kurakhove with claims of advances near Heorhiivka. While one source claimed Russian forces surrounded Ukrainian troops in Hostre, others disputed this. Fighting continues near Maksymilyanivka and Hostre.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued operations southeast of Donetsk City attacking near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Vodyane, Novoukrainka, and Bohoyavlenka. While Russian sources claimed advances near several locations including Shakhtarske, these remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian and Ukrainian military sources did not report any Russian operations along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border region.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, targeting Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka with no changes to the front line. Ukrainian officials report that Russia is moving reserve forces from occupied territories to this area and increasing both assault operations and reconnaissance activities to probe Ukrainian defenses.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russia continues attacks along the east bank of Kherson Oblast with no territorial gains.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 63 drones against Ukraine overnight, mainly Shahed-136/131 models, from launch sites in Oryol, Kursk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukrainian forces shot down 36 drones across twelve regions including Odesa, Kyiv, and Mykolaiv, while 16 others were lost, possibly due to electronic warfare. In Kyiv, falling drone debris caused a fire in the Darnytskyi district.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine is developing an internal strengthening plan alongside his existing victory plan. The new initiative focuses on improving Ukraine’s economy, military capabilities, information security, and social protection. While the victory plan, unveiled October 16, emphasizes NATO membership and international cooperation, this internal plan focuses on domestic measures Ukraine can take independently. The complete plan is expected to be presented to the Ukrainian public by the end of 2024, with officials aiming to bridge the gap between current circumstances and achieving a successful peace settlement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined to meet with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres following Guterres’s attendance at the BRICS summit in Kazan and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to an unnamed source close to Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Zelensky rejected the unannounced visit due to what Ukraine sees as Guterres’s disregard for international law by attending the Russian summit. While at the summit, Guterres did tell Putin that Russia’s invasion violated the U.N. charter and international law.
World boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk has publicly appealed to Donald Trump to help free Ukrainian POWs from Russian captivity, particularly the Azovstal defenders captured in Mariupol in May 2022. About 700 Azov fighters remain in Russian custody. Usyk’s appeal comes as Trump, who claims he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in “24 hours,” is campaigning for the U.S. presidency and has suggested he has influence over Putin. The request was made through podcaster Joe Rogan, who will host Trump in an upcoming episode.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 12 INJURIES: 37
Russian missile strikes hit Dnipro killing five people and injuring 21, including serious damage to the Mechnikov hospital, a crucial facility for treating wounded soldiers. The attack damaged 15 residential buildings and claimed the lives of a police officer’s wife and eldest daughter, while his younger daughter was rescued.
A Russian drone strike hit a 25-story apartment building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district on October 25, killing a 15-year-old girl and injuring five others. The attack damaged multiple floors and forced the evacuation of 100 residents.
Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast killed five people in the settlements of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, Zelene, and Dachenske, with one person injured.
A Russian air bomb strike on Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, killed a 73-year-old woman and injured 10 others, destroying a commercial building and damaging a kindergarten and several homes.
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack on several residential buildings in the city of Dnipro. (Serhii Lysak / Telegram)
A Russian drone struck a multi-story building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district. (State Emergency Service / Telegram)
The aftermath of a Russian attack on the town of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast. (Oleh Syniehubov/Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
G7 nations have agreed to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan package, backed by revenue from frozen Russian assets. The funds, expected to be disbursed by the end of 2024, will support Ukraine’s economic, defense, and reconstruction needs. While Western countries have frozen $300 billion in Russian assets, primarily in European countries, the loan will be secured by the approximately $3.2 billion in annual income these assets generate. President Zelensky welcomed the plan but also urged G7 leaders to consider full confiscation of the frozen Russian funds. Reports indicate the G7 intends to keep Russian assets immobilized even after the war ends.
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has delivered 20 more Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, bringing the total to about 200 combat vehicles supplied, with the recent delivery ordered by the German government including Marder 1A3 models equipped with laser rangefinders for precise targeting. The deal also includes future deliveries of additional Marder vehicles and Leopard tanks, and Rheinmetall has begun plans to construct an ammunition factory in Ukraine, with intentions to establish four production plants in the country.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned at an IIF event that Ukraine cannot have “a bad outcome,” emphasizing nuclear proliferation as humanity’s biggest threat. He expressed concern about Putin’s nuclear threats and Russia’s recent changes to its nuclear doctrine, which allows nuclear responses to conventional missile strikes. Dimon, who supports Ukraine and helped establish a $15 billion fund with BlackRock for Ukraine’s recovery, described Russia, Iran, and North Korea as an “evil axis.”
Polish President Andrzej Duda has firmly rejected transferring South Korean-purchased weapons to Ukraine, stating these arms must serve Poland’s defense. While South Korean law currently prohibits weapons exports to conflict zones, Seoul has suggested this policy might change due to growing Russia-North Korea military cooperation.
Russia News
Russian President Putin appointed former Donetsk People’s Republic Battalion Commander Artyom Zhoga to the Russian Security Council, making him its youngest member at age 49. Zhoga, who previously served on Putin’s re-election campaign team, is the most prominent graduate of the “Time of Heroes” program, which prepares military veterans for government positions. This appointment follows Putin’s pattern of promoting younger, pro-war figures to key positions, suggesting an effort to militarize the Russian government and establish a new war-supporting elite class within the Kremlin.
Russian authorities quickly responded to xenophobic riots in Korkino, Chelyabinsk Oblast, where about 150 people attacked Rroma homes following the murder of a female taxi driver allegedly by a Rroma community member. Officials detained 30 rioters and blocked a Telegram channel that encouraged the violence. This swift response contrasts with authorities’ slower reaction to antisemitic riots in Dagestan last October. The situation highlights Russia’s ongoing challenge of managing ethnic tensions while depending on minority communities and migrants for economic growth and military recruitment.
A Russian National Guard member was killed and another injured in an attack near Grozny, Chechnya’s capital, according to TASS state news. The incident occurred near Petropavlovskaya village on October 24. The attackers, who remain unidentified, fled after shooting at a military truck. Chechnya, a Muslim republic in Russia’s North Caucasus region ruled by Ramzan Kadyrov, has a history of independence wars with Russia in the 1990s and 2000s.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1690
687600 |
Tanks +12
9109 |
Artillery +29
19782 |
Arm. VEH +45
18332 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Atesh partisan movement reports Russia has begun drafting Ukrainians from occupied territories into its military forces, targeting the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. The campaign, running until December 31, aims to mobilize 150,000 recruits, including people from Crimea. While Russian authorities promise conscripts won’t be sent to combat zones, previous experience shows many were later forced to fight against Ukraine. Current recruitment efforts are struggling, with occupied regions reportedly falling 60% short of targets, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Russian law changed to allow military personnel to seek medical care at any hospital while on leave, not just military facilities. This change comes after pressure from military bloggers who met with Defense Minister Belousov and will last throughout Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Previously, soldiers could only use military hospitals, which aren’t available in all regions.
Russia has created a new state-affiliated veterans organization called “SVOi” Military Brotherhood, launched in Moscow. This appears to be an effort to replace existing veterans groups that have criticized Russia’s handling of the Ukraine war. While the new group claims it will support servicemen and honor the deceased, it likely aims to reduce criticism from veteran organizations like the All-Russian Officers Assembly, which has previously opposed government war policies.
The Washington Post reports satellite imagery shows major expansion at Sergiyev Posad-6, a former Soviet biological weapons facility near Moscow, with construction of over 250,000 square feet and 10 new buildings beginning shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Experts note the renovated facility has features typical of high-security biological labs, including specialized air handling units and maximum containment designs. While Russian officials claim the facility is for bioterrorism defense research, the expansion coincides with Russia’s false accusations that Ukraine was developing biological weapons. While the facility’s exact purpose cannot be determined from satellite imagery alone, the development raises concerns given Russia’s history with biological weapons research.
Russia’s Allies
Russia has moved to ratify a defense treaty with North Korea, prompting serious concerns from South Korea and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky warned that North Korean troops could enter combat zones as early as October 27-28, potentially in Russia’s Kursk region or eastern Ukraine. South Korea has urged Russia to stop this “illegal cooperation” and withdraw North Korean troops, while considering revising its policy on sending weapons to Ukraine. Russian President Putin maintained that how Moscow implements the treaty’s military assistance clause remains undecided. Despite North Korea’s denials at the UN, South Korea and the US claim thousands of North Korean troops are already training in Russia.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Elon Musk has maintained regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials since late 2022, despite previous denials of such communications. Initially supportive of Ukraine through Starlink donations, Musk’s position has shifted toward favoring Russia, including preventing Ukraine from using Starlink for naval strikes and expressing doubt about Ukraine’s ability to win the war. While Musk and the Kremlin deny these communications, the situation raises security concerns given Musk’s SpaceX contracts with U.S. intelligence and reports of Russia acquiring Starlink terminals through third parties, despite SpaceX’s claims it doesn’t sell to Moscow.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com