Summary of the Day:
Russia’s war effort faces escalating economic challenges that threaten its long-term military sustainability. The Washington Post reports Russia’s economy is “in danger of overheating,” with military spending forcing private companies to dramatically increase wages to compete with military salaries. Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina warned that the country’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.”
On the battlefield, both Ukrainian and Russian forces made advances within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces also gained ground near Selydove and northwest of Vuhledar. The appearance of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast suggests significant weaknesses in Putin’s force-generation system.
In a concerning development, Russian authorities are using Cossack organizations to militarize children as part of a long-term strategy to build future military reserves. This comes as Russia struggles to maintain its current recruitment rate of 30,000 troops monthly, requiring ever-increasing signing bonuses from regional authorities.
The situation is further complicated by Russia’s strict migration policies following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, which have depleted the labor pool as migrant workers increasingly view Russia as hostile. Experts suggest Russia’s economy will eventually reach a burnout point, potentially forcing Putin to either alter his war strategy or risk regime stability.
Picture of the Day:
Tankers from the 33rd separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces load projectiles onto a Leopard 2A4 tank during a field training at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Genya Savilov / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that his military is preparing response options if Ukraine uses Western-provided long-range missiles like ATACMS, Storm Shadow, or SCALP/T to strike Russian territory. While Ukraine has these weapons, their use is currently restricted to targets outside Russia. Putin claims such strikes would indicate direct NATO involvement in the conflict, repeating earlier threats if Western nations lift these restrictions. Despite discussions about easing these limits, the ban on striking Russian territory remains in place.
Belarus
Russia will take over representing Belarus at the World Bank starting November 2024, replacing a Turkish representative who previously spoke for Belarus. This move, announced by Russian World Bank Executive Director Roman Marshavin, appears to be part of Russia’s broader strategy to control Belarus’s foreign policy and potentially merge the two countries’ economies under Russian leadership.
Georgia
NOTE: Please pray for our son, Bogdan, and his Georgian girlfriend, Salome, during these difficult days ahead. Bogdan is with the U.S. Marines guarding the embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia. We Landros seem to have the habit of living in conflict zones.
Preliminary results show Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party won 54% of seats in the October 26, 2024, parliamentary elections, securing 89 of 150 seats. While this gives them a majority, it falls short of the 113 seats needed for constitutional changes. Opposition parties, which won 38% of seats combined, are contesting these results, noting that exit polls had predicted Georgian Dream would only receive about 40% of votes.
Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has rejected the October 2024 election results, calling it a “total robbery” and suggesting Russian interference. International observers, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), National Democratic Institute (NDI), and International Republican Institute (IRI), reported widespread irregularities including voter intimidation, ballot stuffing, and violence. Several pro-Western opposition parties are refusing to accept their parliamentary seats, while Western officials have called for investigations and warned of potential impacts on Georgia’s relations with the EU.
Georgian President Zourabichvili can legally challenge the election results through the Constitutional Court, requiring support from one-fifth of parliament or the public defender. However, the Court’s recent alignment with Georgian Dream, shown by its support of the “foreign agent” law and ruling against Zourabichvili’s international visits, may affect any challenge. Even if opposition members boycott parliament, Georgian Dream has enough seats to form a government.
Opposition leaders and President Zourabichvili have called for protests outside the Georgian parliament on October 28 to contest the election results. Unity-National Movement party chair Tina Bokuchava promised to “fight like never before” for Georgia’s European future. While only small protests have occurred so far, the government appears to be preparing for larger demonstrations, with Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri recently purchasing water cannons for riot police.
The European Union may pause Georgia’s EU membership progress following the contested elections. European Council President Charles Michel has called for investigation of voting irregularities and warned that EU-Georgia relations will be reviewed in November. EU officials, who had previously expressed concerns about Georgia’s democratic decline under Georgian Dream, may consider revoking Georgia’s Schengen visa-free access. Some Western nations have already frozen funding due to these concerns.
Despite 70% of Georgians supporting EU membership and 57% backing NATO membership according to recent polls, Georgia’s Western aspirations face challenges after the contested elections. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze dismissed fraud allegations as “unfounded lies,” suggesting the government may respond forcefully to protests as it did during the “foreign agent” law demonstrations in May 2024. Meanwhile, Russian media has celebrated Georgian Dream’s victory, with analysts suggesting the Kremlin may use this opportunity to increase its influence in Georgia and the South Caucasus region.
Moldova
Moldova’s Central Election Commission announced the results of its October 20 presidential election first round and EU referendum. President Maia Sandu led with 42.49% of votes, while Alexandr Stoianoglo received 25.95%. The EU referendum narrowly passed with 50.35% in favor and a voter turnout of 50.72%, exceeding the required one-third minimum for validity.
Moldova’s Central Election Commission has submitted the EU referendum results to the Constitutional Court, which has until November 4 to validate or reject them. If approved, the constitutional amendments will take effect upon publication. If rejected due to serious electoral violations, a new vote must occur within two weeks. The Court’s decision might come after the November 3 presidential runoff.
Moldovan Police Chief Viorel Cernauteanu revealed that pro-Russian politician Ilan Shor and Russia’s Promsvyazbank allegedly funded voter bribery schemes during recent elections. They reportedly brought $39 million into Moldova between September and October 2024, distributing money to at least 138,000 voters through bank transfers and direct payments. These electoral violations could potentially affect the Constitutional Court’s decision on the referendum’s validity.
Moldovan police documented over 630 cases of electoral corruption between October 24-26, referring 400 cases to the National Anticorruption Center. CEC President Angelica Caraman reported that the pro-Russian Victory bloc committed numerous electoral violations, including illegal campaign activities and attempts to influence voters, with video evidence showing violations of voting secrecy.
An anonymous Moldovan “officer” sent journalists a list of 3,789 alleged members of Ilan Shor’s network, claiming corruption within the Prosecutor’s Office has protected these operatives. The source alleged Shor directed his network to oppose the EU referendum and support specific presidential candidates. While some media outlets verified several names on the list, the full claims remain unconfirmed.
The Moldovan Constitutional Court faces a key decision regarding the EU referendum’s validity. While evidence shows significant electoral violations aimed at defeating the referendum, the measure still passed with required turnout. The Court must determine if these violations were serious enough to have influenced the overall outcome, which will guide their decision to either validate or nullify the results.
The Moldovan Communist Party is challenging overseas voting results, claiming that EU flags at polling stations in European countries constituted illegal voter influence. They’re demanding a recount of diaspora votes, alleging massive fraud. CEC Spokesperson Rodica Sirbu indicated that the Constitutional Court would decide on any recount during their review period ending November 4.
Moldova’s presidential runoff on November 3 will be between incumbent Maia Sandu and former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo. Stoianoglo’s first-round performance of 25.95% significantly exceeded pre-election polls, which had predicted only 9-11% support. While he received minimal diaspora votes (19,287), his domestic support proved stronger than anticipated.
The presidential runoff outcome may depend on third-place finisher Renato Usatii (13.79% of votes), whose endorsement could significantly boost Stoianoglo’s chances. Usatii, former mayor of pro-Russian Balti, has a mixed endorsement history, supporting Igor Dodon in 2016 but opposing him in favor of Sandu in 2020. He’s currently consulting with his party before announcing his position for the November 3 runoff.
The presidential runoff’s outcome remains uncertain. While Stoianoglo could potentially gain 274,000 votes from other opposition candidates, voter behavior is unpredictable. Though Stoianoglo claims to support EU integration while advocating friendship with Russia, China, and the US, his opposition to the EU referendum might cost him support from the 80,000 pro-EU voters who supported the referendum but not Sandu. However, if these voters stay home during the runoff, it could advantage Stoianoglo.
The diaspora vote could be decisive in Moldova’s presidential runoff. In 2020, overseas voter turnout nearly doubled between rounds, helping Sandu defeat Dodon. The 2024 first-round already saw high diaspora participation (239,419 voters) compared to 2020 (150,022), with 169,294 supporting Sandu. However, it’s uncertain whether second-round turnout will match the first round’s high numbers, which were boosted by the EU referendum.
Security concerns are mounting ahead of Moldova’s November 3 presidential runoff. Reports indicate that Kremlin-linked politician Ilan Shor funded training camps in Moscow, Republika Srpska, and Serbia, where young Moldovans learned protest and destabilization tactics from Russian intelligence-connected trainers. Despite some arrests, authorities fear potential violence before or after the election. The U.S. Embassy in Bosnia has called for investigation into these training camps, highlighting international concern about possible election-related unrest.
North Korea
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reports that Russia is transporting North Korean soldiers to combat zones using civilian trucks. Russian police stopped one such truck on the Kursk-Voronezh highway carrying North Korean troops without proper documentation. This aligns with President Zelensky’s announcement that Russia planned to deploy North Korean soldiers to combat zones by October 27-28. While initially denying these claims, both Russia and North Korea have recently shifted their stance, with Putin indirectly acknowledging their presence and North Korea claiming any troop deployment would comply with international law. Estimates of North Korean troops in Russia range from 3,000 to potentially 12,000 by December, including 500 officers and three generals.
The Path to Peace
Ukraine’s Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak announced that President Zelensky is now open to incorporating peace initiatives from China, Brazil, and South Africa into Ukraine’s peace formula, expected to be finalized by early November. This marks a shift from Zelensky’s previous stance, where he had criticized similar proposals. The plan aims to bring Russia to a second peace summit, though Russian President Putin has already stated he won’t make any concessions and insists any peace agreement must favor Moscow.
In an interview with Times of India, President Zelensky highlighted Indian Prime Minister Modi’s potential role in mediating peace talks to end the Ukraine war, suggesting India as a possible venue for negotiations. Zelensky emphasized that Modi’s influence could be particularly valuable in addressing crucial issues, including the return of Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia. Despite India’s historically strong ties with Russia, Zelensky believes Modi could play a significant role in peace efforts. The Ukrainian president also stressed the importance of his country’s Victory Plan and potential NATO membership as non-negotiable elements in any future peace talks, while expressing concerns about maintaining U.S. support amid upcoming elections.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast, making gains near Olgovka and Kolmakov. Russian sources reported Ukrainian attacks on several settlements including Zeleny Shlyakh, Novoivanovka, Daryino, Nizhny Klin, Pogrebki, Nikolayevo-Daryino, and Plekhovo, in areas southeast of Korenevo and Sudzha. According to Russian sources, Ukrainian forces launched an attack near Novy Put in Glushkovsky Raion, located west of the main Ukrainian position in Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces made small advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, specifically near Martynovka. Military units, including airborne and naval infantry forces, are operating in several areas including Lyubimovka and Cherkasskaya Konopelka, near Sudzha and Korenevo.
Russia claims to have intercepted 51 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions, with 18 downed over Tambov Oblast where a fire broke out at the Transneft Druzhba control station in Novonikolskoye village, while others were intercepted over Belgorod, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Voronezh, Kursk oblasts, and the Azov Sea. The strikes, which appear to target Russian oil facilities as part of Ukraine’s strategy to disrupt fuel supplies to Russian military forces and reduce Moscow’s war-funding oil export revenues, resulted in drone debris hitting two industrial facilities in Voronezh Oblast, including a distillery in Krasnoe village, with Russian Governor Alexander Gusev reporting multiple drone interceptions in the region.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsya northeast of Kharkiv City but made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Romanov reported that 60% of Russian artillery shells in the Kharkiv area are low-quality North Korean ammunition, with possible Iranian ammunition also being used. Russian special forces drone operators are reportedly active in the region.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian mechanized assault near Torske. Russian forces reportedly intensified glide bomb strikes near Kupyansk and the Oskil River, aiming to establish a position near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. Multiple Russian attacks were reported across the region, including near Synkivka, Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka, Pershotravneve, and several other settlements. While Russian sources claimed advances near Pershotravneve and Terny, reports of Russian forces crossing the Oskil River remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched unsuccessful ground attacks near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful ground attack near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, northeast of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces launched attacks around Toretsk, with fighting reported in Toretsk city, near Niu-York to the south, and near Shcherbynivka to the west, but made no advances. While President Putin claims Russian forces control 67% of Toretsk, evidence suggests they only hold about 23% of the city.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced in Selydove, southeast of Pokrovsk, with confirmed footage showing them raising a flag over the Selydove City Council building. While Russian sources claim full control of Selydove, this remains unconfirmed in western areas. Russian forces also advanced south of Vyshneve, west of Selydove. Additional Russian attacks were reported near multiple settlements including Promin, Myrolyubivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Krasnyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, Mykolaivka, and Lysivka.
Kurakhove
Russian forces attacked east of Kurakhove without confirmed advances, with fighting reported near Oleksandropil, Dalne, Hostre, Maksymilyanivka, Kurakhivka, and Kurakhove’s eastern outskirts.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces have advanced near Vuhledar, raising a flag in central Bohoyavlenka and progressing southwest of Novoukrainka, while Ukrainian forces repelled a large Russian mechanized assault near Zolota Nyva, reportedly destroying 20 pieces of equipment, with ongoing fighting around Katerynivka, Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, and Yelyzavetivka. Following Russia’s capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast in early October, Russian forces have intensified operations in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, achieving “partial success” near Levadne, though Ukrainian forces maintain control of key heights in the area, which Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn describes as a “point in an open field” located approximately 50 kilometers west of Vuhledar and 100 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia city.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces have captured the settlement of Levadne, located southwest of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region. Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn confirmed this, noting that Ukrainian forces are working to reclaim the position despite challenging terrain, as Levadne sits in a tactical disadvantage in a lowland area.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, but failed to make any confirmed advances. Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Voloshyn reported no signs of Russian forces forming new offensive groups in southern Ukraine.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks in eastern Kherson Oblast (on the left bank) but failed to make any confirmed territorial gains.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major drone assault on Ukraine overnight, sending 80 Shahed drones from multiple Russian regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 41 drones across ten oblasts, while 32 drones were lost to possible electronic warfare, and one entered Belarusian airspace. President Zelensky reported that in the past week alone, Russia has attacked Ukraine with 1,100 glide bombs, 560 strike drones, and 20 missiles.
Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak announced that Ukraine will hold elections immediately after the war ends to ensure all soldiers and refugees can participate. While presidential elections were originally scheduled for early 2024, they were postponed due to martial law restrictions implemented at the start of Russia’s invasion. Recent surveys show 70% of Ukrainians support President Zelensky remaining in office until martial law ends. Both presidential and parliamentary elections will be delayed until post-war, with Yermak emphasizing that current resources must be focused on the war effort.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 7 INJURIES: 26
Russian forces conducted multiple air attacks on Ukraine’s Kharkiv region injuring 21 people, including five children. The strikes damaged a high-rise building and destroyed apartments in Kharkiv city, as well as a warehouse in Chuhuiv.
Russian forces in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, located 18 kilometers from the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk, are accused of shooting civilians, killing two women and injuring one person, with Ukrainian prosecutors launching a war crimes investigation after the victims’ bodies were found in a residential area under Russian control and documenting an incident of Russian soldiers firing on a civilian car on October 24. Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has alerted international organizations about these alleged Russian war crimes in Selydove, which adds to Ukraine’s documented 137,000 Russian war crimes, including a recent incident where Russian soldiers killed four captured Ukrainian servicemen near the town.
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast killed five civilians and injured four others. The casualties occurred when Russian forces used drones to drop explosives and artillery fire on the region, which remains divided by the front line.
At least 21 people were injured overnight, including five children, as Russia launched multiple air attacks on Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv Oblast. (State Emergency Service / Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
Canada has delivered a new batch of Light Armored Vehicle (LAV) 6.0 ambulances to Ukraine after training Ukrainian personnel in Germany. This delivery is part of Canada’s $4.5 billion military aid package since 2022, which includes a commitment to provide 50 LAVs over three years. Unlike some allies, Canada allows Ukraine to use its donated equipment without geographic restrictions, including in operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1680
690720 |
Tanks +7
9120 |
Artillery +51
19872 |
Arm. VEH +40
18395 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia’s economy is showing signs of severe strain due to its war spending, according to a Washington Post report. The Russian Central Bank warns that the country’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.” Private companies are struggling to compete with high military salaries, forcing them to significantly raise wages. Russia’s strict migration policies following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack have further reduced the available workforce, as migrant workers increasingly view Russia as hostile and unattractive for employment. While Russia maintains a recruitment rate of about 30,000 troops monthly, this requires ever-increasing signing bonuses from regional authorities, highlighting the growing financial burden of sustaining the war effort.
Putin appears to be avoiding another mobilization due to potential political risks, instead relying on indirect recruitment methods that are straining Russia’s economy. The presence of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast suggests Putin’s military recruitment system is weakening. As Russia continues to deplete its manpower and equipment, the economic burden of the war will likely reach a critical point, potentially forcing Putin to either change his war strategy or risk regime stability.
Russia is using state-funded Cossack programs to militarize children, according to Russian opposition outlet SOTA. In Belgorod Oblast, 300 children have started training at a Patriotic Education Center where they learn about Cossack military culture and weapons handling. The program, funded by the Russian Presidential Fund, appears to be part of Russia’s long-term strategy to build up its military reserves by training youth through Cossack organizations.
Russia’s Allies
The EU faces challenges in delivering $6.6 billion in defense aid to Ukraine due to Hungary’s veto. Germany and France are skeptical of a proposed workaround that would allow individual EU members to make voluntary contributions, bypassing Hungary’s blockade. The plan, suggested by the EU’s diplomatic service, has raised concerns about weakening the European Peace Facility’s effectiveness as a unified foreign policy tool. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has consistently blocked EU support for Ukraine while maintaining friendly relations with Moscow, leading to tensions within the EU.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com