Summary of the Day:
Russian forces have made limited advances near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and southwest of Donetsk City, while Ukrainian forces gained ground in Toretsk. Despite increased activity, Russian progress remains significantly slower than early war advances, averaging only 14 square kilometers per day compared to 1,265 square kilometers daily in March 2022.
President Putin participated in Russia’s annual nuclear deterrence exercise, overseeing launches of various ballistic and cruise missiles. This display appears designed to influence Western support for Ukraine through nuclear deterrence messaging. Meanwhile, domestic polling reveals declining trust in local Russian governments, dropping to 43% from 45% last year, while Putin’s approval rose to 80%, suggesting his strategy of delegating unpopular military recruitment to regional authorities is working.
In Georgia, Russian officials are falsely characterizing peaceful election protests as a Western-backed coup attempt. Despite Russian claims, tens of thousands of Georgians have gathered legally in Tbilisi to contest election results through constitutional means, with international observers reporting evidence of voting irregularities. The Russian military continues to address troop shortages by recruiting from prisons to replace frontline losses.
Picture of the Day:
Women representing families of Ukrainian POWs and missing persons are staging a demonstration in front of the United Nations offices in Geneva. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw a routine annual nuclear exercise on October 29, which included launches of various ballistic and cruise missiles. During the exercise, Putin claimed Russia needs modern nuclear forces due to “growing tensions” and emphasized Russia’s nuclear capabilities. This exercise, similar to those conducted in 2022 and 2023, appears designed to influence Western support for Ukraine through nuclear deterrence messaging.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is seeking China’s help to pressure North Korea to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, according to CNN. Western intelligence confirms that some North Korean forces are already in Ukraine, with estimates ranging from 3,000 to potentially 12,000 troops by December. While the U.S. State Department has expressed concerns to China about this development, Western officials remain skeptical about China’s willingness to help, noting that Beijing has been a “critical enabler” of Russia’s war efforts. China denies any knowledge of North Korean troops in Russia, despite strengthened ties between North Korea and Russia, including a new mutual defense pact.
The recent Georgian parliamentary election has sparked controversy after the ruling Georgian Dream party claimed victory with approximately 54% of the vote, despite exit polls favoring the pro-European opposition coalition. While Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili refused to recognize the election’s legitimacy and all four opposition parties declined to join parliament, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Tbilisi to congratulate Georgian Dream, praising them for preventing Georgia from becoming “a second Ukraine.” The party, which has ruled for 12 years and campaigned on avoiding conflict with Russia despite Moscow’s ongoing occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia since 2008, faces criticism for moving the country away from Western integration.
Russian officials and state media are portraying the peaceful Georgian election protests as a Western-backed coup attempt, claiming the West is sending Ukraine-trained snipers to trigger unrest. Key figures like Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova have accused President Zourabichvili and opposition groups of acting on Western orders to destabilize Georgia. This narrative aligns closely with Georgian Dream’s messaging, as Prime Minister Kobakhidze has dismissed election irregularity claims and party Vice-Speaker Nino Tsilosani accused the opposition of plotting a coup, mirroring the Kremlin’s typical approach to discrediting pro-Western movements in post-Soviet countries seeking Western ties.
Despite these accusations, tens of thousands of protesters gathered peacefully on October 28 to contest the results through constitutional means, focusing on documenting voting irregularities and calling for internationally administered snap elections. The Central Election Commission (CEC) has offered to cooperate with investigations into electoral fraud claims, while the European Union and United States have condemned the irregularities, warning they are incompatible with Georgia’s EU aspirations. International and domestic observers continue to report evidence of systematic voting irregularities.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko has dismissed Donald Trump’s reported plan to freeze Russia’s invasion as “unrealistic.” The plan, which Trump claims could end the war within 24 hours, might involve pressuring Ukraine to give up territory and NATO aspirations. According to the Financial Times, the proposal would establish autonomous regions along a demilitarized zone, like the failed Minsk agreements of 2014-2015, but with European troops enforcing it. Merezhko, who chairs parliament’s foreign affairs policy, argues that Putin remains untrustworthy and uninterested in negotiations, believing he can still win. He supports President Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” as the only viable solution to end the conflict.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces have made recent advances in eastern Ukraine, though at a much slower pace than during the initial 2022 invasion. While they’ve captured Vuhledar and made progress near Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk), these gains are small compared to their early-war advances. Current Russian advances average about 14 square kilometers per day, versus 1,265 square kilometers daily in March 2022. This recent push likely represents an effort to gain ground before fall weather conditions make movement more difficult.
Russian military intelligence intercepted a conversation revealing North Korean soldiers are being transported to the front lines in civilian trucks, specifically when military police stopped a civilian KamAZ truck (plate #497) on the Kursk-Voronezh highway, driven by Andrey Svеridenko, who lacked proper combat assignment documentation. The soldiers were being transported to the Russian navy’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade near Russkaya Konopelka, with Western intelligence officials cited by CNN confirming North Korean troops entered Ukraine around October 27-28. Approximately 12,000 North Korean troops, including 500 officers and three generals, are currently training at five Russian military bases, with some forces already engaged in combat operations. The troops, many of whom are special forces, are being integrated into Russian units with three Russian soldiers assigned to every 30 North Korean fighters.
The arrangement reportedly involves Russia providing North Korea with financial aid and nuclear technology expertise in exchange for military support, though both nations deny previous allegations of weapons transfers. While North Korea’s military lacks recent combat experience, having not fought in over 70 years, Pyongyang believes its troops are better trained than regular Russian forces, despite facing challenges including language barriers with North Korean soldiers struggling to understand basic Russian military commands. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol described it as a “grave situation” where North Korean troops could be deployed sooner than anticipated, prompting South Korea to send a delegation to Ukraine to discuss the situation and potential military cooperation. In response, Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” project has established a surrender hotline specifically for North Korean soldiers.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Harmon-M radar station in the Kramatorsk sector of Donetsk using an FPV drone, with the radar system, delivered to Russian forces in March 2024, capable of detecting aerial targets up to 45 kilometers away, while also targeting Buk-M3 and Buk-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems in occupied Luhansk region, potentially weakening Russia’s air defense capabilities in the area; meanwhile, Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces allegedly struck Luhansk City with two missiles, possibly Storm Shadow or ATACMS, hitting residential buildings and leading to evacuations in the industrial zone of Kamyanobridskyi Raion, though Ukrainian officials have not confirmed these reports, and the claims cannot be independently verified.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Russian forces reported combat activity in Ukraine’s main salient in Kursk Oblast, though no frontline changes were confirmed. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have stopped Ukrainian attacks near Darino and Novoivanovka, southeast of Korenevo. Fighting was reported around several settlements including Lyubimovka, Nizhny Klin, Zeleny Shlyakh, Nikolaevo-Darino, and Plekhovo. No ground activity was reported in Glushkovsky Raion west of the salient.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted limited attacks near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, without success. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russia is amassing poorly trained recruits in the area, adding that bad weather and Ukrainian drones have forced Russian units to operate nightly.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line gaining ground east of Kolisnykivka and Andriivka. Heavy fighting is concentrated south of Kupyansk near Kruhlyakivka, where Russian forces are attempting to establish positions along the Oskil River. Russian sources claim advances near multiple settlements including Terny, while Kharkiv occupation official Vitaly Ganchev alleged Ukrainian authorities are evacuating Kupyansk.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked multiple settlements near Siversk targeting Bilohorivka (northeast), Verkhnokamyanske (east), Ivano-Darivka (southeast), and Zvanivka (south). Despite these offensive operations, no changes to the frontline were confirmed.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar and nearby Stupochky but failed to make any confirmed advances along the frontline.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces recaptured previously lost positions along Chervonyi Lane in central Toretsk. Despite this Ukrainian success, Russian forces continued attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made confirmed advances southeast of Pokrovsk, pushing into western and central Selydove and central Novodmytrivka, while also attacking multiple settlements including Zoryane, Kurakhivka, Kreminna Balka, and Novoselydivka. While Russia claimed to have captured Hirnyk and Selydove, a town of 21,000 people in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine hasn’t fully confirmed this, though military experts indicate the town is effectively lost with possible Ukrainian forces remaining only in western areas. Ukraine reports repelling 11 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, including near Selydove, but Russian forces continue advancing amid heavy artillery and aerial bombardment that has displaced thousands of civilians, though rainy weather has reportedly reduced Russian drone activity in the area.
The fall of Selydove, achieved in just weeks, poses a significant threat to the nearby logistics hub of Pokrovsk, located 18 kilometers northwest, with Russian forces now also targeting the towns of Toretsk and Kurakhove. This represents Russia’s fastest advance in eastern Ukraine since summer 2022, creating what experts call a “pretty grim” situation as Ukrainian troops are being forced to retreat to less fortified positions. While Russia would still need to capture about 10,000 square kilometers to take all of the Donbas region, the current situation is especially challenging for Ukraine given the approaching winter and uncertainty about future Western military support.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced east of Kurakhove, executing a platoon-sized mechanized assault using three tanks and a demining vehicle. While Russia claimed to have captured Katerynivka, reports indicate fighting continues there. Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Maksymilyanivka, Dalnye, Antonivka, Katerynivka, and Trudove. A reported Ukrainian counterattack near Kurakhove with tank support was unsuccessful.
Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle Kurakhove by bypassing the Kurakhivske Reservoir from multiple directions. They are advancing through Novodmytrivka, Sontsivka, and Shevchenko toward Andriivka from the north, while simultaneously pushing toward Kostiantynopil from Yasna Polyana in the south. Forces are also moving toward Uspenivka to secure their flank near Vuhledar. This strategy appears designed to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Kurakhove by threatening encirclement while avoiding direct engagement across the reservoir.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced near Vuhledar, pushing into areas northwest of Bohoyavlenka and southern Yasna Polyana. While Russia claimed to have captured Bohoyavlenka, Yasna Polyana, and Shakhtarske, only the capture of Bohoyavlenka has been confirmed. Russian forces continued attacks near Novoukrainka, Yasna Polyana, Shakhtarske, and Bohoyavlenka. Fighting continues for full control of these areas, particularly Shakhtarske.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked in western Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly targeting areas north of Robotyne toward Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka. However, there is no confirmation of any Russian advances in these areas.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian officials report ongoing Russian attacks along the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, particularly on the east bank and river delta islands. Ukrainian forces are reportedly mining waterways between islands to disrupt Russian troop movements and rotations.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a significant strike against Ukraine, using an Iskander-M missile and 48 drones. The missile hit Kryvyi Rih, killing one person and injuring 11. Ukrainian forces intercepted 26 drones across multiple regions, while 20 others were disrupted by electronic warfare. Some drones damaged infrastructure in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts. Additionally, a Grom-E1 missile struck Kharkiv City’s Osnovianskyi district, killing four civilians and damaging residential areas.
President Zelensky has requested Tomahawk missiles from the U.S. as part of a “non-nuclear deterrence package.” These missiles, with a range of 2,400 kilometers, significantly exceed the range of previously provided ATACMS systems. U.S. officials report that Ukraine has struggled to justify the need for Tomahawks, noting that Ukraine’s proposed Russian targets exceed available U.S. stockpiles. Zelensky was reportedly surprised when President Biden declined permission to use U.S. long-range missiles against targets deep within Russia during their September meeting in Washington.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed concerns about potential U.S. aid cuts during a press conference in Reykjavik. While acknowledging U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump’s frequent comments, Zelensky noted he had not directly heard Trump say he would reduce Ukraine’s support. The president emphasized that cutting aid to Ukraine would benefit Putin and harm Western democracy, adding that Ukraine is preparing contingency plans while aiming to maintain bipartisan U.S. Congressional support. According to the Financial Times, Trump’s potential strategy includes freezing the conflict and blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership until Putin leaves power.
Ukraine’s parliament has approved the resignation of Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin, with 255 members voting in favor. Kostin resigned on October 22 following revelations of widespread corruption involving fake disability certificates used to evade military service. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) uncovered corruption schemes at medical examination commissions, leading to the cancellation of over 4,000 fake disability certificates. Officials are currently considering Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper and Kyiv Oblast Governor Ruslan Kravchenko as potential replacements for Kostin. The corruption schemes were particularly prevalent in Rivne, Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskyi, and Kharkiv regions.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Industrial Defense Base
Ukraine plans to draft an additional 160,000 people into its armed forces to reach 85%-unit manning levels, according to National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko. Since martial law began, over 1 million citizens have been drafted. A new mobilization law enacted in May simplified the conscription process and required military-aged men to update their data within 60 days, with nearly 4.7 million complying. The government recently announced that workers in strategically important economic sectors can extend their exemption from military service, with about one million people already eligible for exemption as of August.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol discussed North Korea’s growing military support of Russia in a phone call, agreeing to share intelligence and develop countermeasures, with delegations from both countries planning mutual visits and Yoon announcing that a South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine this week to discuss North Korean troop deployments in Russia; Zelensky warned that North Korean troops could be deployed to the battlefield soon, prompting South Korea to consider revising its laws to allow military aid to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s involvement.
Norway will provide 1.4 billion kroner ($127.4 million) to purchase a Patriot air defense system for Romania, replacing one that Romania donated to Ukraine in October. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store emphasized that air defense remains one of Ukraine’s most critical needs, especially for protecting military installations and civilian infrastructure during winter. Norway has already contributed 4 billion kroner ($364 million) for Ukraine’s air defense, including Patriot missiles, an IRIS-T battery, and a NASAMS system. Ukraine currently has Patriot systems from Germany and the U.S., with additional promised systems from the U.S. and Netherlands pending delivery.
European power operators will increase electricity exports to Ukraine and Moldova to 2.1 gigawatts starting December 1, with the European Union planning to provide a total of 4.5 gigawatts of energy capacity (about 25% of Ukraine’s winter needs) plus an additional 250 megawatts of emergency power, responding to Ukraine’s critical energy situation as Russian attacks have already destroyed 9 gigawatts of power capacity, including all thermal power plants and most hydroelectric facilities; while Ukraine claims to have protected 85% of its energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency warns of a potential 6-gigawatt shortage this winter (roughly one-third of expected peak demand), with Ukrenergo’s interim head Oleksiy Brekht declaring it Ukraine’s most challenging winter since Russia’s invasion, as Ukrainians could face up to eight hours of daily power outages during critical periods, with some officials warning of possible 6-7 hour daily electricity limits.
A fire broke out at ZVS Holding company’s facility in Snina, Slovakia, affecting a plant that produces artillery shell casings for Ukraine. The fire, which started in a hydraulic press and spread to an oil tank and roof, resulted in two workers being treated for smoke inhalation. While no explosives were present at this facility (shells are filled at another location in Dubnica nad Vahom), this incident highlights Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to increase domestic ammunition production and reduce dependence on Western suppliers, despite current reliance on partners for 155mm shells.
Romania’s Defense Ministry proposed a new law allowing its military to shoot down unauthorized aircraft violating its airspace, including Russian drones. The proposal comes after multiple incidents of Russian drones crashing on Romanian territory near the Ukrainian border. The law would permit both Romanian and allied forces to respond to airspace violations, with shooting down aircraft as a last resort after following specific warning procedures. Romania has joined Latvia and Poland in calling for a coordinated NATO response to these airspace violations. While Ukraine has requested NATO intervention to intercept Russian drones and missiles, no NATO country has yet taken this step.
Russia News
A drone attack struck the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, Chechnya, marking the first recorded drone strike in the region during Russia’s war against Ukraine, with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov reporting that the early morning strike hit an empty building, causing a minor fire on the roof but no casualties at the facility, which is named after Vladimir Putin and was visited by him in August. While Ukrainian special services sources confirmed the attack, they suggested it was likely carried out by Dagestanis, with intelligence sources indicating the attack originated from Russia’s North Caucasus region rather than Ukraine.
The incident may be linked to regional tensions between Kadyrov’s forces and lawmakers from Dagestan and Ingushetia, following a September conflict at Wildberries retailer in Moscow where Kadyrov accused three officials – Barakhoyev, Kerimov, and Kurbanov – of plotting against him. The same day, Russia reported intercepting Ukrainian drones in multiple regions, while Russian forces launched drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting Shahed drones over Kyiv, though falling debris caused damage to infrastructure and vehicles in the Solomianskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts.
Footage that purports to show the aftermath of a drone attack against the Russian University of Special Forces named after Vladimir Putin in the city of Gudermes, Chechnya, Russia. (Mash, Baza/Telegram)
Recent polling by Russia’s Levada Center shows declining public trust in local government officials while trust in President Putin has increased. According to September 2024 data, 43% of Russians trust local authorities (down from 45% in 2023), while Putin’s trust rating rose to 80% (up from 76%). This shift suggests Putin’s strategy of letting local officials handle unpopular military recruitment efforts is successfully deflecting public dissatisfaction away from him and onto regional authorities.
The Kremlin has declared that Rheinmetall’s new weapons factory in Ukraine is a “legitimate” target for Russian attacks, according to spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. The German arms manufacturer recently opened the facility, which is already producing Lynx infantry fighting vehicles. Despite these threats, Rheinmetall remains committed to its Ukrainian operations, with CEO Armin Papperger announcing plans to open a second plant for producing gunpowder, tank ammunition, and air defense systems. The company currently supplies Ukraine with various military equipment, including Leopard 1 tanks and drone surveillance systems, under contracts with the German government.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1560
693640 |
Tanks +8
9137 |
Artillery +38
19955 |
Arm. VEH +29
18433 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense has authorized the formation of assault units composed of prisoners with Hepatitis B and C, according to Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate. Of approximately 10,000 eligible prisoners with these conditions, about 1,500 have expressed interest in joining. This appears to be part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to replenish depleted frontline units by recruiting both convicts and individuals who may not meet standard medical requirements.
Russia’s Allies
Russian First Deputy PM Denis Manturov met with Belarusian PM Roman Golovchenko in Belarus to discuss collaboration on aircraft manufacturing, specifically focusing on components for Il-76 cargo planes and Tu-214 passenger aircraft, as part of broader import substitution efforts.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com