Summary of the Day:
The Kremlin is intensifying efforts to influence Western decision-making regarding Ukraine, notably through a phone call between Putin and German Chancellor Scholz. Ukrainian President Zelensky warned that such diplomatic moves help reduce Putin’s international isolation and could lead to negotiations favoring Russia.
Russian forces have advanced near multiple settlements including Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces meanwhile reported progress in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove.
Western military support for Ukraine continues to expand. France completed training Ukraine’s Anna Kyivska Brigade, providing advanced equipment including artillery systems. Norway announced it will join the “Danish format” to finance Ukraine’s domestic weapons production. In Georgia’s Russian-backed Abkhazia region, protesters stormed parliament opposing a Russian investment agreement, leading Russia’s Foreign Ministry to warn its citizens against travel to the area.
Picture of the Day:
Empty chairs with the names of missing journalists and cultural figures stand on Sophia Square in Kyiv, Ukraine. Culture and media figures were honored in Kyiv during the human rights action ‘Empty Chairs.’ Activists want to support journalists, cultural figures, writers and human rights defenders who have been missing or imprisoned because of the Russian-Ukrainian war. (Yevhenii Zavhorodnii / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Georgia’s political crisis has deepened after a Tbilisi court dismissed 11 lawsuits challenging the recent parliamentary election results. The ruling Georgian Dream party, known for its Russian ties, claimed victory with 54% of the vote, but opposition parties and civil society groups allege widespread voting violations, including voter intimidation and ballot secrecy issues. The dispute has triggered large protests in Tbilisi and led to the European Commission suspending Georgia’s EU accession process. This political instability in Georgia, a strategic South Caucasus nation, raises concerns about growing Russian influence and democratic backsliding, potentially affecting regional stability and Euro-Atlantic integration efforts.
Protesters stormed the parliament building in Sukhum, the capital of Abkhazia, a Russian-backed separatist region internationally recognized as part of Georgia but under illegal Russian control, opposing a new investment agreement that would give Russian investors property ownership rights and tax benefits in the region. While protesters waved Russian flags and claimed no anti-Russian sentiment, they demanded the resignation of President Aslan Bzhania, arguing the agreement would drive up property prices and reduce local autonomy. The unrest coincides with concerns about Russia’s reported construction of a naval base at Ochamchire, which could escalate tensions in the Black Sea region given Ukraine’s warnings about targeting Russian naval assets. In response, Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned its citizens against travel to Abkhazia and suggested the unrest could discourage future Russian investment in the region, highlighting growing instability in the Caucasus and raising concerns about Russia’s expanding influence in territories it illegally occupies.
The U.S. has inaugurated a new air defense base in Redzikowo, Poland, strengthening NATO’s eastern defense capabilities. This facility, part of NATO’s “Aegis Ashore” missile shield system, joins existing sites in Romania, Spain, and Turkey to create a comprehensive European defense network. The development comes amid growing concerns over ballistic missile threats, particularly given their use in Ukraine and Middle East conflicts. While Russia criticized the base as containment, NATO emphasizes its defensive nature and role in maintaining regional stability. The installation reinforces the U.S.-Poland security partnership and NATO’s commitment to collective defense, marking a significant step in preserving peace in Eastern Europe.
The Path to Peace
President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war, stating at a Mar-a-Lago event that “Russia and Ukraine’s gotta stop.” He indicated he will soon appoint a high-level peace envoy to lead negotiations, like Kurt Volker’s role as U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine from 2017-2019. Trump’s election victory has raised questions about the future of Western military aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that “the war will end faster” under Trump’s policies. He cited this as part of Trump’s “approach” and “promise to their society.” Zelensky referenced previous “constructive interaction” with Trump, saying Ukraine had presented its peace vision and heard nothing contrary to its position. While emphasizing Ukraine’s continued independence in negotiations, Zelensky expressed confidence in a quicker resolution, though he noted there was still “no exact date” for the war’s end.
The Kremlin is reportedly increasing efforts to influence Western decision-making regarding the Ukraine war, particularly through diplomatic channels and phone calls between senior Russian officials and Western counterparts, including a significant call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – their first in nearly two years – where Putin pushed for premature peace negotiations rather than continued military support for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized this call, warning it could open a “Pandora’s box” of renewed dialogue with Russia, helps reduce Putin’s international isolation, and could lead to negotiations favoring Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry cautioned that such conversations historically served Putin’s interests, while Zelensky emphasized there would be no “Minsk-3” agreement, referencing previous failed peace deals, and recalled that the last Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul (March 2022) collapsed due to Russian “ultimatums” and discovered war crimes in liberated areas. The Kremlin continues to maintain its stance against compromise while pursuing its campaign to influence Western allies.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces briefly crossed into Ukraine’s Chernihiv Oblast, planting flags near the villages of Hremyach and Kolos, about 1.5km from the border, in an uninhabited “grey zone” near the Sudost River bridge. While Russian sources claimed they seized Hremyach, Kolos, Novoselydivka, and Muravi, Ukraine’s Border Guard spokesperson Andrii Demchenko denied these claims, stating these were merely brief incursions for propaganda purposes and emphasizing that Ukraine maintains full control of the area, has deployed additional forces to counter Russian sabotage attempts, and noting the settlements are abandoned.
Ukrainian naval drone attacks and weather conditions have forced Russia to shift air defenses to protect Crimea, particularly the Kerch Strait Bridge. The Ukrainian Navy reported that Russian naval patrols of the bridge have dropped from 10-14 vessels to zero, with Russia now relying on helicopters instead of ships or fixed-wing aircraft for defense. The switch to helicopters allows better matching of Ukrainian drone speeds and improved patrol capabilities in poor weather.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces made a small advance near Novoivanovka, southeast of Korenevo. Russian forces claimed advances near Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, and Olgovka, though weather conditions are slowing operations on both sides. Fighting continued around Darino.
Ukrainian forces launched a major drone attack on Krymsk military airfield in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai region, located about 220-250 km from the Ukrainian border. Russian officials reported intercepting 51 drones, with 36 over Krasnodar Krai. Some drone debris fell in Krymsk city and the village of Poltavskaya, causing minor damage to homes but no injuries. The airfield, which houses Russia’s 3rd Combined Aviation Regiment, was the primary target, though the extent of military damage remains unclear.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued limited attacks north and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Tykhe, Starytsya, and Vovchansk. Weather conditions have limited Russian mechanized operations, with attacks mainly conducted by small infantry groups. Ukrainian officials report that Russia aims to establish artillery positions to shell Kharkiv City and secure roads for potential future advances.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced into eastern Kupyansk, reaching Dzerzhynskoho Street, with active combat reported near the sugar factory and industrial zone. Russian forces are using small armored groups with infantry support, advancing along railroad lines. Ukrainian forces, who had previously held Kupyansk through summer, now face increased pressure as Russian forces establish logistics networks in the area. Recent Russian advances near Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka could force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Kupyansk and surrounding positions.
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. They claimed advances west of Karmazynivka and fire control near Stelmakhivka. Fighting was reported north of Kupyansk near Holubivka; east near Petropavlivka; southeast near Hlushkivka, Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova; west of Svatove near Zeleny Hai, Kopanky, Pershotravneve, and Nadiya; southwest near Novoyehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Katerynivka; and around Kreminna near Nevske, Terny, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
In recent military activity, Russian forces launched offensive operations near the settlement of Verkhnokamyanske, east of Siversk. Despite these efforts, they failed to make any territorial gains.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Predtechyne, south of Chasiv Yar, but made no advances. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian infantry is using raincoats and blankets to avoid detection by Ukrainian drones and thermal imaging. Russian forces are having difficulty advancing westward after securing positions on the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces made recent advances in northeastern and southern Toretsk, while conducting operations near Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka. Near Nelipivka, Ukrainian forces reportedly stopped a Russian mechanized assault, destroying seven vehicles and causing 12 casualties.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced south of Pokrovsk, gaining ground in northern Yurivka and west of Novooleksiivka. They reportedly captured positions in northern Petrivka and Hryhorivka. Additional attacks continued near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Pushkine, Pustynka, and Zhovte. Claims of a 1.3-kilometer advance west of Novooleksiivka remain unconfirmed.
Kurakhove
Ukrainian forces advanced west of Pobieda near Dalne, while Russian forces made a small advance in northern Novoselydivka near Kurakhove. Russian claims about advances near Sontsivka, Berestky, Illinka, and Dalne remain unverified. Fighting continues near Novodmytrivka, Zorya, Voznesenka, Sontsivka, Novo Illinka, Berestky, Maksymilyanivka, and Dalne.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces advanced in northwestern Antonivka near Vuhledar, likely capturing the entire settlement. Fighting continues near Kostyantynivka, Yantarne, Kostiantynopolske, and Trudove.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces attempted to advance near Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances of three kilometers toward Novodarivka and north of Rivnopil, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces conducted attacks near Makarivka, Novodarivka, and Rivnopil as part of what appears to be a broader effort to pressure Ukrainian positions around Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast. While a Russian military blogger suggested increased strikes could signal a future offensive in the region, there is no evidence of Russian troop redeployments to support such an operation.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast with no frontline changes.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched overnight strikes against Ukraine using two cruise missiles and 29 Shahed drones targeting multiple regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted one missile and 25 drones across Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Ternopil regions. The attacks damaged port facilities, residential buildings, heating systems, and educational and religious buildings in Odesa City.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine has met all International Monetary Fund requirements for its sixth aid tranche of $1.1 billion, expected by December’s end. This is part of a $15.6 billion Extended Fund Facility program designed to help Ukraine maintain economic stability, restore debt sustainability, and support reforms aligned with future EU membership goals. The announcement follows Ukraine’s successful completion of the program’s fifth review in October.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has arrested a high-ranking Special Operations Forces commander for allegedly spying for Russia. The officer reportedly leaked critical military intelligence about Ukrainian operations in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea to Russian forces. According to the SBU, the suspect was recruited by Russian military intelligence before Russia’s 2022 invasion and began active operations in spring 2024. The commander faces treason charges that could result in life imprisonment. The Special Operations Forces command confirmed they were aware of and cooperated with the investigation.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 19
In Odesa, a Russian strike killed one woman and injured 10 people, including a nine-year-old boy. The attack destroyed an apartment building, damaged several high-rises, and knocked out the district’s main heating pipeline, affecting 40,000 residents, seven kindergartens, four schools, and a maternity hospital.
In Donetsk Oblast, Russian strikes injured three people in the villages of Shcherbynivka, Vovkove, and Shevchenko.
Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast wounded five people and damaged critical infrastructure, including a post office and 12 homes.
A Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast struck the communities of Nikopol, Myrove and Marhanets, injuring a 51-year-old woman.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s government has announced new financial incentives for troops conducting combat missions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. According to government representative Taras Melnychuk, soldiers will receive 100,000 hryvnias ($2,400) monthly plus 70,000 hryvnias ($1,700) for every 30 days of combat. The package includes a 15-million-hryvnia ($363,000) payment to families of fallen soldiers and extends to emergency service personnel and anti-corruption officers. Ukraine launched its Kursk offensive in August, where President Zelensky reports Ukrainian forces are currently engaging approximately 50,000 Russian troops. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi states Russian casualties include 7,905 killed, 12,220 wounded, and 717 captured during the three-month operation.
Ukraine is facing a critical military personnel crisis, with reports of medical professionals being transferred from hospitals to combat infantry roles. Parliament Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko has raised concerns about surgeons being reassigned to assault troops, while the military needs to mobilize 500,000 people to meet frontline demands. The situation has led to discussions about dissolving the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRCs) amid scandals and controversial recruitment practices. Major General Dmytro Marchenko warns that the eastern front is “crumbling” due to personnel and ammunition shortages, with troops exhausted along the 1,000-kilometer front. While Ukraine plans to draft 160,000 troops by February, experts suggest they may only reach 100,000, meeting just half of the current personnel shortage needs.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine has received over $100 billion in foreign financing for its state budget since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, according to the Finance Ministry. The European Union leads in budget support with $40.5 billion, followed by the United States with $28.2 billion, the IMF with $11.4 billion, Japan with $6.3 billion, and Canada with $5.4 billion. About one-third ($33.7 billion) came as non-repayable grants. Ukraine expects to receive $40.8 billion in external financing in 2024, like 2023’s $42.5 billion. The G7 nations have also arranged a $50 billion loan framework backed by frozen Russian assets.
French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that Ukraine’s “Anna Kyivska” Brigade has finished its training in France, marking the first Ukrainian brigade to complete training under the European Union Military Assistance Mission. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, France provided both training and advanced military equipment, including armored personnel carriers, artillery systems, and situational awareness systems.
During a meeting in Oslo with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Norway announced it will join the “Danish format” to finance Ukraine’s domestic weapons production. The officials also discussed creating a “Norwegian format” to enable foreign investment in Ukrainian defense technology companies.
US Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh announced that the US plans to provide Ukraine with $7.1 billion in military assistance, with packages to be delivered almost weekly. The Pentagon stated this assistance would be distributed through the Presidential Drawdown Authority program.
Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya made an unannounced visit to Kyiv marking the first ministerial visit since Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba took office. Iwaya is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and possibly President Volodymyr Zelensky. The visit comes amid concerns about North Korean troops on Ukraine’s eastern front and as Ukraine prepares for winter challenges to its energy infrastructure. Japan has been a significant supporter of Ukraine, providing $6.3 billion in external budget financing since Russia’s invasion.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russia’s Foreign Ministry objected to comments made by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi about maintaining IAEA staff at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant until a potential pause in fighting. Russia, which has occupied the plant since March 2022, insisted only it can authorize IAEA visits to the facility.
Four boys, ages 1.7 to 17, have been returned from Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast through efforts by the charity “Save Ukraine.” The children are receiving medical and psychological care. According to Ukrainian government data, Russia has abducted over 19,500 children since February 2022, with fewer than 390 returned. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets warns that 1.5 million Ukrainian children in occupied areas remain at risk of deportation to Russia, noting this practice violates the Geneva Conventions and constitutes a war crime.
Russia News
Three Russian oil refineries – Tuapse, Ilyich, and Novoshakhtinsk – face possible closure due to significant financial losses and damage from Ukrainian drone strikes. The refineries have either suspended or reduced operations, with Ilyich and Novoshakhtinsk running at half capacity. This crisis, compounded by Western sanctions and high interest rates, has led to decreased fuel exports and reduced state revenue. Russia’s largest oil company, Rosneft, has repeatedly suspended operations at its Tuapse plant due to low profitability, highlighting the growing pressure on Russia’s oil industry, a key funding source for its war in Ukraine.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1650
719240 |
Tanks +8
9338 |
Artillery +28
20520 |
Arm. VEH +26
18994 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Kremlin is expanding its “Time of Heroes” program, which aims to create a loyal veteran class and place them in government positions. Officials discussed expanding educational opportunities for select war veterans, including graduate studies in public administration. The program has reportedly attracted over 1,000 veteran sign-ups in its initial hours, with Russian authorities planning to expand it federally. The initiative is led by First Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko and Academy Rector Alexei Komissarov, whose influence is likely to grow due to the program’s success.
Russian forces are sending newly recruited soldiers to the frontline with minimal combat training, leading to high casualties. A Russian military blogger reported that one contract soldier died in combat just 12 days after signing up, highlighting a pattern of deaths resulting from rushed training practices. This accelerated deployment of untrained troops is weakening Russian military effectiveness and increasing casualty rates.
Russia’s Allies
Pro-Russian sources have shared images showing North Korean M-1978 Koksan artillery systems being transported by rail near Krasnoyarsk, Russia. The Koksan, a 170mm self-propelled artillery system developed by North Korea in the 1980s, has a firing range of up to 60 kilometers with rocket-assisted projectiles. The system, which proved effective during the Iran-Iraq War, could significantly boost Russian firepower. This transfer represents another instance of growing military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, with North Korea supplying weapons to support Russian operations.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced plans for mass production of attack drones, following successful tests. The drones, developed by North Korea’s Unmanned Aerial Technology Complex, are designed for “suicide missions” where they carry explosives and crash into targets. The drone design shows similarities to Israel’s “HAROP” and Russia’s “Lancet-3” models, raising concerns about technology transfer from Russia amid strengthening military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. The announcement comes as North Korea has recently ratified a defense pact with Russia and faces accusations of sending troops to support Russian operations in Ukraine. This development adds to recent provocative actions by North Korea, including missile tests and constitutionally labeling South Korea as a “hostile” state.
European Union diplomats have reported “convincing” evidence that a Chinese firm is producing attack drones for Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. While China’s foreign ministry denies knowledge of this operation, EU officials question whether such production could occur without Beijing’s awareness. The situation is further complicated by reports that Russia is using Chinese satellites to photograph Ukrainian nuclear facilities. The issue is expected to be addressed at upcoming EU foreign ministers’ meetings and during U.S. President Biden’s discussions at the APEC Summit, where he plans to express concerns about China’s support for Russia’s war efforts.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com