Donetsk Region No Longer At Stalemate as Russian Forces Steadily Advance - Day 1005 (November 24, 2024)

Summary of the Day:

Russian forces have broken the perceived stalemate in Donetsk Oblast, achieving their most significant advances since 2023 near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka. Military analysts report Russian forces are operating with unprecedented coordination across multiple fronts, with elements from the Central, Eastern, and Southern military districts executing simultaneous offensive operations.

The Russian command is currently pursuing several strategic options around Velyka Novosilka, including a potential envelopment maneuver from multiple directions. Additional Russian advances near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and along the Pustynka-Sontsivka line suggest a broader offensive aimed at collapsing Ukrainian defensive positions and threatening key supply routes.

Ukrainian forces achieved a significant defensive victory by destroying a Russian S-400 air defense system radar in Kursk Oblast. Both sides have reported advances in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, though Russian forces appear to be preparing for a major push into southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast as part of their larger campaign to secure all of Donetsk Oblast.

While Russian forces demonstrate improved tactical coordination and are executing more complex operations, military observers note they continue to rely on identifying and exploiting weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive lines rather than achieving true operational maneuver warfare capabilities. The increasing fluidity of the front line marks a significant shift in the conflict’s dynamics, with Russian forces showing their most substantial forward momentum since last year.

Picture of the Day:

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in Dnipro following an attack on Nov. 21. Russia fired an experimental missile, dubbed “Oreshnik,” at Ukraine for the first time. (Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images)

Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War

Russia has confirmed they launched an Oreshnik intercontinental ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. President Putin announced the missile was fired from Russia’s Astrakhan region near the Caspian Sea. While the missile is nuclear-capable, it carried conventional warheads. This marks the first combat use of an intermediate-range missile with multiple warheads. Experts and officials have varying responses: Ukraine’s former US ambassador sees it as nuclear blackmail aimed at Europe and America, while Polish media calls for Western retaliation. Russian opposition figures warn this brings the conflict closer to potential nuclear confrontation, with concerns about further escalation on both sides.

The UN Secretary-General has warned of an escalating global threat as the United States announces plans to supply anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine, marking a significant shift in weapons deployment despite international treaties banning such weapons. In a statement at Cambodia’s Mine Ban Treaty conference, Antonio Guterres highlighted the growing risk of renewed landmine warfare, particularly concerning as these weapons killed or injured 5,757 people globally last year, with civilians making up 84 percent of casualties. This development comes amid Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia, neither of which are signatories to the treaty that 164 other nations have joined, raising concerns about a potential new era of landmine deployment in modern warfare.

Russia’s recruitment of approximately 200 Yemeni civilians through Houthi intermediaries marks a significant expansion of military cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Iranian-backed forces in the Middle East, with the Financial Times reporting that since July 2024, Yemeni men have been recruited through a company linked to the Houthi armed group and lured to Russia with false promises. The recruits were offered high salaries, Russian citizenship, and non-combat civilian jobs, but were instead forcibly conscripted into the Russian military, with some being threatened at gunpoint to sign Russian-language contracts they couldn’t understand. Most recruits reportedly had no military training, and many died in Ukraine. U.S. Special Envoy Tim Lenderking has confirmed active weapons transfer discussions between Russia and the Houthis, highlighting the growing military alliance that connects Moscow’s military operations with Iran’s regional network, representing a concerning merge of separate conflict zones that potentially destabilizes both regional and global security frameworks through the interconnection of previously distinct military spheres.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Note: I have moved the area of Zaporizhia/Donetsk Border area up to the Donetsk Area and relabeled it Velyka Novosilka as this campaign is more about taking all of Donetsk, rather than infiltrate into Zaporizhia region at this time in the conflict.

Ukrainian partisan group “Atesh” reported that Russian forces installed S-300 air defense systems near Fiolent, south of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, close to a military base housing Russian coastal missile and naval radio units.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia

Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in ongoing combat in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces advanced near Martynovka, while Russian forces moved forward near Zeleny Shlyakh. Fighting continues around several settlements including Darino, Nikolayevo-Darino, Plekhovo, Sudzha, and Pogrebki.

Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a Russian S-400 air defense system radar in Kursk Oblast. While Russian officials claim they intercepted 24 Ukrainian drones and two missiles during the attack, some Russian sources suggest ATACMS missiles were used. Ukrainian drones also reportedly struck near Russia’s Khanskaya Air Base in Adygea Republic and damaged a Rosneft oil depot in Kaluga Oblast. These strikes against Russia’s air defense systems are crucial for Ukraine’s defense strategy, as weakening these defenses could allow Ukraine to conduct more effective airstrikes and limit Russia’s ability to launch attacks from within its territory.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) conducted an overnight strike targeting an S-400 “Triumf” air-defense system in Russia’s Kursk region. The AFU General Staff reported that the targeted system, operated by Russia’s 1490th anti-aircraft missile regiment, had been repurposed to attack ground targets in Ukraine, particularly civilian areas. The S-400, comparable to the American Patriot system and valued at approximately $200 million, was struck in a coordinated group attack. While the strike’s success couldn’t be independently verified, it represents part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to conduct military operations within Russian territory.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces continued attacks near Kharkiv City focusing on the areas around Vovchansk and Tykhe, though they made no confirmed advances. An unconfirmed report suggests Ukrainian forces attempted a counterattack toward Zhuravlevka in Russia’s Belgorod region.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, notably south of Lozova. They launched attacks across multiple settlements including Kindrashivka, Synkivka, Novomlynsk, Novoplatonivka, and several others along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces control parts of Kopanky and Pershotravneve, with claimed advances near Borova and Terny.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces are making significant advances in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, particularly near Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Since September 2024, they have captured several settlements including Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Illinka, and likely Romanivka, while also advancing into central Trudove. Their forces have gained over 1,100 square kilometers – nearly triple their total gains for all of 2023 – by exploiting newly discovered weak points in Ukrainian defenses. The capture of Vuhledar in October 2024 has proven strategically important for Russian operations in western Donetsk Oblast, providing a base for further advances.

Russia’s current military strategy involves attempting to encircle Velyka Novosilka while simultaneously working to trap Ukrainian forces north and south of Kurakhove. These operations, which weren’t part of their original Fall/Winter 2024-2025 campaign plans, emerged after capturing Vuhledar and making progress near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. While Russia initially prioritized capturing Pokrovsk, they temporarily abandoned this goal due to strong Ukrainian resistance. Forces from multiple military districts (Central, Eastern, and Southern) are now conducting coordinated offensive operations across Donetsk Oblast, marking a significant change from their previous strategy of separate, sequential operations.

Russian forces, currently positioned just 8 kilometers from the Dnipropetrovsk border near Novodarivka, appear to be planning advances into southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. They may attempt to advance northward along the Vorona River from Rivnopil toward Velykomykhailivka, and along the Mokri Yaly River toward Novopavlivka, aiming to cut off Ukrainian supply lines and force Ukrainian withdrawal from areas around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. According to Ukrainian military spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn, Russian troops are also planning assault operations near Orikhiv and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with intelligence reports showing formation of assault groups, ammunition movement, and drone reconnaissance in preparation.

According to Interfax Ukraine, citing intelligence sources, a Russian Ministry of Defense document outlines plans to divide Ukraine into three parts: one incorporating the annexed regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Crimea; another establishing a Russian-controlled state centered in Kyiv; and a third designating western Ukraine as “disputed territories.” While Russian forces are showing more sophisticated tactical planning by targeting Ukrainian weak points rather than conducting direct assaults, they haven’t regained the ability to conduct large-scale maneuver warfare. UK Defense Secretary John Healey reports Russian casualties reaching 1,345 personnel per day in October 2024, totaling about 80,110 casualties in September-October alone, with equipment losses of 197 tanks, 661 armored vehicles, and 65 artillery pieces in the same period, potentially exhausting their Soviet-era equipment reserves by mid-2025 or 2026.

Siversk

Russian forces launched attacks near Bilohorivka, which lies northeast of Siversk. These offensive operations did not result in any confirmed territorial gains.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky attempting to outflank a central refractory plant, but made no advances.

Toretsk

Russian forces launched attacks near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka with Russian sources claiming control of eastern Zabalka Microraion in southern Toretsk. No significant frontline changes were confirmed.

Pokrovsk

Russian forces advanced south of Lysivka near Pokrovsk and conducted attacks near multiple settlements including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Myrnohrad, Hryhorivka, Dachenske, Pustynka, Zhovte, and Petrivka. Claims of Russian advances to Zhovte and west of Yurivka remain unconfirmed.

Kurakhove

Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kurakhove, including Novodmytrivka, Sontsivka, Zorya, Beretsky, and Dalne. While Russian sources claim control of Zorya, Sontsivka, and Berestky, Ukrainian forces maintain positions in these areas.

Russian forces are advancing westward from Selydove toward Novodmytrivka, Zorya, and Sontsivka, aiming to trap Ukrainian forces defending the area north of Kurakhove’s Kurakhivske Reservoir. Combined with their push toward Andriivka, this move could force Ukrainian troops to retreat through a narrow corridor toward Bohdanivka. Russian forces are also targeting Zhovte and Pushkine, threatening this potential escape route. These operations are part of a larger strategy to straighten the frontline between Shakhtarske and Zhovte, preparing for a possible offensive toward Pokrovsk.

Southwest of Donetsk City (Target: Andriivka)

Russian forces conducted attacks near several settlements around Vuhledar, including Romanivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hannivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Trudove, Kostiantynopolske, and Sukhi Yaly.

Russian forces are advancing toward Andriivka along the H15 highway west of Kurakhove, aiming to trap Ukrainian forces in two areas: north of the Kurakhivske Reservoir and northeast of Vuhledar near the C051104 highway. By capturing Andriivka and advancing from Sontsivka, Russian forces could encircle these Ukrainian positions while establishing a straighter frontline from Selydove to Rozdolne, potentially setting up for a future offensive toward Pokrovsk in 2025.

Velyka Novosilka (formerly Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area)

Russian forces attacked areas around Velyka Novosilka, including Rozdolne, Makarivka, Novodarivka, and Rivnopil. Multiple Russian units are operating in the region though reports of battles for Velyka Novosilka itself remain unconfirmed.

Russian forces are executing a complex maneuver to capture Velyka Novosilka by advancing from multiple directions rather than launching direct attacks. After taking Shakhtarske, Russian troops have advanced to within 5 kilometers northeast and 2.5 kilometers southeast of Velyka Novosilka, while also capturing Rivnopil and advancing near Novodarivka to the southwest. Russian forces are now threatening key Ukrainian supply routes, positioning themselves within 3 kilometers of the T0518 highway and 4 kilometers from the O0510 highway. This strategy aims to force Ukrainian withdrawal by cutting off supply lines rather than conducting direct assaults on well-defended positions.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia

Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn warned that Russia is preparing assault groups for increased attacks in the Orikhiv and Hulyaipole areas. However, these Russian advances have not been independently verified.

Russian forces deployed drone operators near Hulyaipole in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. No ground combat was reported in this area.

Russian forces reportedly advanced two kilometers near Mala Tokmachka and entered Bilohirya, both northeast of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces conducted small-scale ground attacks along the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.

Ukraine News

Russia launched 73 drones against Ukraine from the Oryol and Bryansk regions, primarily targeting Kyiv and several other regions including Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Zhytomyr. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 50 drones, while 19 were disabled by electronic warfare, though the attacks still damaged farms in Koryukivskyi Raion, homes in Chernihivskyi Raion, and an industrial facility in Kyiv Oblast. Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is now using cheaper, foreign-component decoy drones called Gerbera, manufactured in Tatarstan, to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

According to CNN, Russia has used 60 North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine in 2024, and President Zelensky reported that in the past week alone, Russia employed over 800 guided bombs, 460 strike drones, and more than 20 missiles in their attacks on Ukraine, including Russia’s first use of a new “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s urgent need for additional air defense systems, noting that the country “is not a testing ground for weapons.” These attacks follow Ukraine’s reported first successful strike on a Russian military target using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles.

Russia launched its new “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro on November 21, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to refute Vladimir Putin’s claims about the weapon being unstoppable. While Putin boasted about the missile’s capabilities, Zelensky confirmed that existing air defense systems can counter such threats. Ukrainian experts are analyzing the missile wreckage, which some analysts believe is based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh IRBM. In response, Zelensky has directed his Defense Minister to work with international partners to acquire advanced air defense systems, emphasizing the need for swift action to prevent Russia from developing countermeasures. The attack came after Ukraine’s first successful ATACMS strike on a Russian military target.

Polish farmers temporarily blocked the Sheghini-Medyka border crossing with Ukraine for just over a day, ending their protest today. The blockade, which limited truck traffic to one vehicle per hour from Poland to Ukraine, was suspended after farmers met with Polish Agriculture Minister Czeslaw Siekierski. The protesters, concerned about agricultural tax rates and a potential EU-Mercosur trade agreement, agreed to submit their demands by November 26, with a ministerial response expected by December 10. Normal truck traffic has now resumed at the crossing.

Innocent Victims Of War

The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)

DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 1

Russian soldiers entered an apartment in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast and shot three civilians, killing two women and injuring a man who suffered shoulder and collarbone fractures.

Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Ukraine’s Chief of General Staff Anatolii Barhilevych announced plans to develop guided aerial bombs, responding to Russia’s extensive use of its Soviet-era stockpile. These weapons, while shorter in range than missiles, are cost-effective and can evade Ukrainian air defenses when launched from Russian territory. Defense Minister Umerov noted Ukraine has already invested $4 billion in defense production, with successful advances in drone manufacturing.

Ukraine’s Allies

National Security Adviser nominee Mike Waltz stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict needs to reach a “responsible end,” expressing concerns about escalation under current U.S. policy. Speaking on Fox News, Waltz criticized the Biden administration’s recent decisions to provide Ukraine with anti-personnel mines and permission to use ATACMS missiles against Russian targets. While skeptical of continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine, Waltz emphasized he is working with current National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to ensure a unified American stance toward adversaries during the transition.

Lithuania delivered a new military aid package to Ukraine containing generators, M113 spare parts, weapons, and ammunition. The defense ministers of both countries also signed a memorandum in Vilnius on November 23 to strengthen security cooperation, including Lithuanian funding for Ukrainian drone production. The agreement outlines plans to equip Ukrainian brigades, provide ammunition, and enhance air defense as key priorities for 2025.

British businessman David Crisp will not face criminal charges despite being caught on video admitting to selling luxury perfume in Russia in violation of UK sanctions. Crisp, who was filmed in Dallas discussing how he “ignored government edicts” to continue selling perfume worth over $1,200 in Russia, allegedly hid more than $2.1 million in illegal sales. Although arrested in 2023, the investigation was dropped in 2024. His former business partner David Garofalo, who hired the undercover investigator that exposed Crisp, has since taken control of the company and stopped all Russian sales. The case highlights the UK’s poor track record on sanctions enforcement, with no criminal convictions for violating Russia sanctions since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine

Around 150,000 internally displaced Ukrainians have returned to Russian-occupied territories, with approximately 70,000 going back to Mariupol, according to Ukrainian lawmaker Maksym Tkachenko. Of the 5 million people currently displaced within Ukraine, 3.6 million fled their homes following Russia’s 2022 invasion. Many returnees are driven back to occupied areas due to difficulties finding housing and jobs, along with insufficient government support in their host communities. The situation continues to worsen as Russian advances in eastern Ukraine force more civilian evacuations, with Russia now controlling about 25% of Ukrainian territory.

Russian War Losses (Today/Total)

Troops +1610