Summary of the Day:
Russian forces achieved notable tactical advances in the western Donetsk region, making progress around Velyka Novosilka and pushing toward critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication. Additional Russian advances were reported in southwestern Toretsk and in areas south and southeast of Pokrovsk. While these gains could become operationally significant if properly exploited by Russian command, military analysts caution that these advances alone do not necessarily indicate an imminent collapse of Ukrainian defensive lines.
In strategic strikes, Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a Russian oil depot in Kaluga Oblast and an airbase in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian military officials continue to monitor potential Russian ground operations against Zaporizhzhia City, though the scope and timing of such an offensive remain unclear, particularly given Russia’s ongoing operational commitments in Kursk and Donetsk oblasts.
Reports indicate Russian command posts are increasingly reliant on Chinese-made radios for internal communications, highlighting ongoing domestic production challenges for military-grade communication equipment. In parallel developments, North Korea is reportedly expanding a key weapons facility believed to be involved in supplying Russia with ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has indicated plans to remove the Taliban from its list of prohibited organizations, signaling an intensification of Russia-Taliban diplomatic relations.
Picture of the Day:
| A woman stands by the edge of the crater from the impact of a Russian Shahed drone outside a house in Zaporizhia. (Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images) |
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
In a significant shift that could impact regional stability, Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu announced plans to remove the Taliban from Russia’s list of “terrorist organizations.” This decision follows increased cooperation between Russia and the Taliban since they took control of Afghanistan in 2021. Russia’s growing relationship with the Taliban appears aimed at countering the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan. This development signals a concerning realignment of power relationships in the region and could further complicate international peace efforts and counter-terrorism initiatives.
Belarus is strengthening its military capabilities, with Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announcing the addition of over 60 new weapons systems in 2024. The country is modernizing its forces based on lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine, focusing on command systems, intelligence, electronic warfare, air defense, and anti-drone technologies. This military buildup in Belarus, a key Russian ally, could potentially increase tensions in Eastern Europe and impact regional stability.
Romania’s presidential election has taken an unexpected turn as far-right candidate Calin Georgescu leads the first round with 22.94% of the vote. This development could significantly impact Ukraine’s war effort, as Georgescu opposes Romania’s current pro-Ukraine stance and NATO alignment. As a key Ukrainian ally sharing a 610-kilometer border, Romania has been crucial for Ukraine’s agricultural exports and recently provided a Patriot air defense system. Georgescu’s potential victory could threaten this support, as he advocates ending assistance to Ukraine and criticizes NATO presence in Romania. This shift in leadership at NATO’s eastern frontier could weaken the regional alliance supporting Ukraine and potentially alter the balance of power in Russia’s favor.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly made advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast region, though these claims remain unconfirmed. The reported activity centers around several key areas including Darino, Tolsty Lug, Novoivanovka, and areas near Zeleny Shlyakh and Nizhny Klin. Additional claimed advances occurred near Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Plekhovo. Ukrainian forces allegedly attempted counterattacks near Leonidovo, Novaya Sorochina, and Pogrebki, but these were reported as unsuccessful.
Ukrainian forces struck a temporary Russian bridge crossing over the Seym River near Karyzh in Kursk Oblast on November 22. The attack, using an American GDU-39 Small Diameter Bomb, also hit a Russian military vehicle during the crossing.
Ukrainian forces executed a series of coordinated strikes against Russian targets, including the KalugaNeftProduct oil depot near Kaluga City (approximately 290-500 kilometers from Ukraine) and the Khalino Airfield near Kursk City. The operation involved approximately seven ATACMS missiles and 12 drones, successfully destroying a Russian S-400 air defense system’s radar near Bolshoe Zhirovo and damaging four fuel tanks at the oil depot, along with the “Typhoon” instrument-making plant in Russia’s Kaluga region. While Russian officials claimed their air defenses intercepted eight Ukrainian ballistic missiles and multiple drones with no casualties reported, video evidence suggests some attacks were successful. The strikes, which also targeted facilities in the Bryansk region, represent Ukraine’s second deployment of Western-supplied long-range weapons on Russian territory, specifically ATACMS ballistic missiles with cluster warheads, following their first use on November 19 after receiving Washington’s approval. In response, Russia tested its new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile on Dnipro on November 21, which President Putin confirmed was deployed in a non-nuclear configuration, marking an escalation in long-range missile exchanges between the two nations.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces increased attacks near the Ukrainian border northwest of Kharkiv City targeting areas near Kozacha Lopan, Kudiivka, Vovchansk, and Tykhe. These attacks appear aimed at keeping Ukrainian forces occupied along the border and potentially drawing forces away from ongoing Russian operations in Kursk Oblast. No confirmed Russian advances were reported.
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian forces from Kopanky village in Kharkiv Oblast, capturing several Russian prisoners. The village, located 40 kilometers southeast of the strategic hub of Kupiansk, had been targeted by Russian forces attempting to advance in the area. Ukrainian troops, which previously made gains near Borova in August, continues to defend the region against Russian pressure.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces reportedly crossed the Oskil River near Novomlynsk, north of Kupyansk, though these claims remain unverified. Russian attacks continued around several settlements including Senkove, Pishchane, Lozova, Zahryzove, Novoosynove, Kolisnykivka, and Kruhlyakivka. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian forces are suffering high casualties in the area and are limited to infantry attacks due to effective Ukrainian drone operations.
Russian forces continued attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line targeting areas near Terny, Yampolivka, Pershotravneve, Vyshneve, Zeleniy Hai, Novoyehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Ivanivka, Torske, and Serebryanka. While Russian sources claimed advances near Terny and Yampolivka, these remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian artillery and drones are reportedly limiting Russian mechanized attacks in the area.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Recent Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast, involving coordinated operations between Eastern Military District and Southern Military District forces near Velyka Novosilka and Vuhledar, show tactical success but may not lead to larger strategic gains. While these advances are significant, Russia would still need to capture over 8,000 square kilometers to achieve its goal of controlling all of Donetsk Oblast. Based on past performance, any Russian push into southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is unlikely to achieve rapid gains or threaten major Ukrainian positions during the winter 2024-2025 campaign.
Siversk
No fighting was reported by either Russian or Ukrainian sources in the Siversk area.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Chasiv Yar with no confirmed territorial gains. While Russian sources claim that Russian forces have made progress in the industrial area and near a stadium, these claims lack visual confirmation. Ukrainian officials report the situation is becoming dangerous, noting a significant buildup of Russian troops near Kramatorsk and Siversk. A Ukrainian brigade suggested Russian forces may be experiencing weapons shortages, as they’ve begun using naval weapons systems like the RBU-6000 Smerch in ground combat.
Toretsk
Russian forces made small advances in southwestern Toretsk, confirmed by footage showing movement along Ryzkyi and Sormovska Streets. Ukrainian officials report Russian forces are conducting rapid assaults near Toretsk and in nearby settlements of Dachne, Dyliivka, and Shchernynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces reportedly made small advances near several settlements south and southeast of Pokrovsk. The claimed advances occurred near Pushkine, Zhovte, Yurivka, and Pustynka, though these claims remain unverified. Ukrainian forces reported a successful counterattack near Mykolaivka. A Ukrainian servicemember noted Russian forces are moving troops from Novooleksiivka to push toward the T0515 highway. Ukrainian officials report their minefields have destroyed 30% of Russian equipment in recent Pokrovsk-area assaults.
Kurakhove
Russian forces are targeting areas around Kurakhove and Vuhledar, with Russian forces advancing into central Kurakhove along Pobiedy Street. Russian forces claim to have captured Romanivka, northeast of Vuhledar, with confirmed mechanized assaults near the settlements of Illinka and Antonivka. Their strategy appears aimed at pushing Ukrainian forces westward toward Kostiantynopolske, northwest of Vuhledar.
Southwest of Donetsk City (Target: Andriivka)
Russian forces have gained positions along the H15 road in eastern Kurakhove and advanced to Pobiedy Street in central Kurakhove, placing them about 15km east of Andriivka. Military analysts suggest capturing Andriivka is a key Russian objective, as it would allow them to encircle settlements along the O0510 highway near Vuhledar. Their strategy appears to involve pushing westward along H15 while attacking through Uspenivka, Hannivka, and Romanivka, potentially forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw. If successful, this would position Russian forces about 23km from the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border.
Velyka Novosilka (formerly Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area)
Russian forces are making notable progress in western Donetsk Oblast, reaching the eastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, where they are likely planning to encircle the town from the east and northeast, pushing southwest from Rozdolne toward Novyi Komar and northward through Rivnopil, though they haven’t yet crossed the Kashlahach River east of the town. This advance threatens key Ukrainian supply lines in western Donetsk Oblast that extend into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions, and the potential loss of Velyka Novosilka, an important Ukrainian logistics point, would threaten Ukrainian positions in Hulyaipole and Orikhiv in Zaporizhia Oblast, potentially opening a path for Russian forces to advance into southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Novoandriivka in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claim advances toward Orikhiv and into Bilohirya, these claims remain unverified.
Ukrainian intelligence sources report that Russia had been preparing for a potential offensive on Zaporizhzhia City with up to 130,000 troops, but their initial plans were disrupted when they had to redeploy nearly half of their 20,000-30,000 troops from Zaporizhia to Kursk Oblast. Currently, Russia is moving small assault units and drone operators from Donetsk Oblast to strengthen positions near Kamyanske, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne, suggesting preparation for intensified local assaults rather than a unified offensive operation, while other Russian units are being moved from the Zaporizhzhia area to support operations along the Kurakhove-Pokrovsk line in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Volunteer Army Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk has downplayed concerns about a potential Russian ground offensive on Zaporizhzhia City, suggesting that Russian airstrikes in the area are primarily meant to intimidate civilians, though these troop movements cannot be independently verified.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks in east bank Kherson Oblast focusing on seizing islands in the Dnipro River Delta, including a major assault on Kozatskyi Island. Ukrainian forces maintain fire control over the delta islands from the west bank. Russian forces reportedly moved some units from this area to Kurakhove and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, while deploying Northern Fleet elements to defend the Tendrivska and Kinburn Spits against potential Ukrainian attacks.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a massive drone attack against Ukraine deploying 145 drones from multiple regions. Ukrainian forces shot down 71 drones across 14 oblasts, while 71 others were reportedly disrupted by electronic warfare. The attacks struck Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Odesa cities, damaging residential areas and causing civilian injuries. Ukrainian officials note that Russia is increasingly using Shahed drones during daylight hours, a shift from their typical nighttime operations.
A record 38 Russian Shahed drones violated Belarusian airspace according to monitoring group Hajun Project. Several drones briefly crossed Belarus en route to Ukraine, while others flew to Mozyr and Gomel Oblast. Belarusian forces responded by launching aircraft four times and shooting down at least one drone.
Russian military bloggers and recent satellite images revealed that Russia’s November 21 Oreshnik missile strike failed to significantly damage the Pivdenmash factory in Dnipro City, contradicting earlier Kremlin claims about the attack’s effectiveness and Russian President Putin’s announcement of the strike as a successful combat test of the new missile system, which he claimed travels at Mach 10 and is impossible to intercept, having been launched from Kapustin Yar range in Russia’s Astrakhan region, about 900 kilometers from Dnipro, with the U.S. Department of Defense describing the Oreshnik as an experimental missile likely based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh ICBM technology.
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has documented 376 cases of sexual violence during Russia’s war in Ukraine, including 262 men, 104 women, and 12 children. Most male victims were tortured while in captivity in occupied territories or Russia. Ukraine’s UN representative Sergiy Kyslytsya reported that over 50% of detainees suffered torture, rape, or sexual violence, with Russia using sexual violence as a weapon against civilians and prisoners of war. In one case, Ukrainian prosecutors have charged Russian soldier Mykola Senenko for rape in Kherson Oblast during the March 2022 occupation.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 44
Russian forces struck central Kharkiv on November 25 with what officials believe was an S-400 missile, hitting a residential area surrounded by apartment buildings. The attack injured 23 people, with 13 requiring hospitalizations. The missile landed in a courtyard, damaging multiple buildings and at least five vehicles. The strike targeted a densely populated area, affecting both pedestrians and people at work.
Russia launched missiles at downtown Odesa injuring 11 people, with eight requiring hospitalization and one woman in serious condition. The attack damaged residential buildings, a school, and a university sports hall in a civilian area with no military targets. Officials reported the damage was caused by missile debris.
A Russian drone struck the village of Solonchaky in Mykolaiv Oblast during humanitarian aid distribution, injuring five people, including both aid workers and residents. Two victims are in serious condition.
Russian attacks on Kherson Oblast damaged three high-rise buildings and 22 houses, injuring three people.
A 28-year-old man was injured in a Russian attack on the Koriukivka district of Chernihiv Oblast.
A Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia injured a 13-year-old boy and struck industrial facilities.
The aftermath of a Russian attack against Odesa, Ukraine. (State Emergency Service/Telegram)
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. has confirmed Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles to strike Russian targets in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast, and Kursk Oblast. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby announced that Washington has changed its guidance to allow Ukraine to use these long-range missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers, for specific targets on Russian soil. This policy shift represents a significant change from previous restrictions, and reports indicate Ukraine has also used British Storm Shadow missiles for strikes within Russia.
European allies are discussing the possibility of sending military personnel or defense contractors to Ukraine, prompted by concerns about potential U.S. support withdrawal if Donald Trump wins the next election, according to Le Monde. The topic was raised during British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to France, with London and Paris potentially leading a pro-Kyiv coalition. While French President Macron has suggested deploying military trainers to Ukraine, some allies like Germany oppose the idea. France’s Foreign Minister Barrot emphasized that no options should be ruled out regarding military support for Ukraine.
G7 foreign ministers are expected to increase pressure on China over its support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, according to a draft communique reported by Bloomberg. The document proposes measures against Chinese actors supporting Russia, marking an escalation from previous G7 statements. This comes amid evidence of China’s involvement in producing attack drones for Russia and providing lethal aid, despite claiming neutrality. The G7’s stronger stance aims to maintain support for Ukraine ahead of potential changes in U.S. leadership and includes continued pressure on Russia’s energy revenues through sanctions on its “shadow fleet.” NATO has identified Beijing as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
An international drone coalition, led by the UK and Latvia, plans to raise 1.8 billion euros by the end of 2024 to support Ukraine’s drone capabilities. Latvia has committed 20 million euros to the initiative, which includes nearly 20 countries. Meanwhile, Ukraine aims to boost its domestic production to one million drones in 2024, using them to target Russian military infrastructure, airfields, and oil facilities.
The United Kingdom has imposed sanctions on 30 Russian oil tankers from its “shadow fleet,” bringing the total number of UK-sanctioned Russian vessels to 73 – the largest such action by a Western nation. These tankers, part of Russia’s $10 billion investment in poorly insured vessels since 2022, transported billions in oil products last year, circumventing the West’s $60-per-barrel price cap. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, these shadow fleet vessels carried two-thirds of Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports last year. The UK Foreign Office stated this action aims to reduce Russian war funding and ensure safer shipping lanes.
DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, will receive $112 million in combined aid from the U.S. and EU to repair and winterize facilities damaged by Russian attacks. The U.S. will provide $46.1 million for control systems and transformers, while the EU Commission pledged $66 million to restore power generation capacity. The aid comes after Russian strikes destroyed 90% of DTEK’s generation capacity, with another major attack occurring on November 17. The restoration work aims to ensure reliable power for over 2 million Ukrainians. However, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development declined to provide additional funding to DTEK due to its ownership by Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1480 733830 |
Tanks +6 9435 |
Artillery +19 20806 |
Arm. VEH +20 19256 |
Aircraft  369 |
Heli 329 |
Ships 28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved one-time payments of 400,000 rubles (approximately $3,846) to Rosgvardia (National Guard) members who sign contracts to serve in Ukraine. This move appears to be an effort to boost voluntary military recruitment while avoiding another partial involuntary reserve mobilization in Russia.
A Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces are heavily dependent on Chinese-made radios for battlefield communications due to shortages of domestic equipment. The shortage stems from production issues, sanctions, and quality control problems with Russian-made “Azart” radios. Ukrainian forces regularly intercept these Chinese radio communications, creating security vulnerabilities for Russian operations.
Russia’s Allies
According to satellite imagery, North Korea is expanding its February 11 plant at the Ryongsong Machine Complex in Hamhung, which produces KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles used by Russia in Ukraine, with construction of a new assembly building and worker housing at the facility, as Russia has launched approximately 60 North Korean-supplied KN-23s out of 194 total ballistic missiles against Ukraine in 2024, representing one-third of all ballistic missile strikes. This expansion follows a June strategic partnership agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang, with North Korea reportedly sending an estimated 10,000 troops, ammunition, and weapons to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com