Summary of the Day:
Russia has intensified its offensive operations while continuing to resist diplomatic solutions. Since Fall 2024, Russian forces have increased their advance rate to 22 square kilometers per day, though this remains significantly below the 1,265 square kilometers daily pace seen during the March 2022 invasion. Currently, Russia controls 99% of Luhansk Oblast but only 66% of Donetsk Oblast, with well-defended cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk still under Ukrainian control.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed positions near Kreminna, while Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. However, Russian operations are hampered by poor coordination between artillery, armor, and infantry units. Russia launched its largest drone attack to date overnight, deploying 188 drones and four Iskander-M missiles across Ukrainian territory, primarily targeting energy infrastructure. Ukrainian forces intercepted all missiles and 76 drones, while 95 drones were disabled by electronic warfare.
In significant developments, US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed Ukraine’s use of American ATACMS missiles against Russian targets, including successful strikes on an S-400 air defense system near Kursk City and Khalino Airfield. Meanwhile, concerning reports emerge of continued Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs in violation of the Geneva Convention, particularly in Petrivka. Russia’s parliament is also moving to remove the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations, signaling a potential shift in international alignments.
Picture of the Day:
A firefighter removes debris after a Russian missile attack in Sumy, Ukraine. As a result of the strike, a residential multi-story building was damaged, and a parking lot was destroyed. (Pavlo Zarva/Kordon.Media/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
In a concerning shift that could affect global security, Russia’s parliament is creating legal mechanisms to remove the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations. The proposed amendment to Russia’s anti-terrorism law would allow the delisting of groups that supposedly cease terrorist activities. This move reflects Russia’s increasingly accommodating stance toward the Taliban, though sources suggest the final decision won’t come until after 2024. This potential legitimization of a known terrorist organization by a major world power could undermine international counter-terrorism efforts and global stability.
Belarus and Russia are strengthening their alliance through the Union State Treaty, with Belarus’s Prime Minister signing a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia’s Rosatom. Russian President Putin plans to visit Minsk on December 6 for a Union State council meeting. This deepening partnership between Russia and Belarus, particularly in nuclear matters, raises concerns for regional stability and global security.
The Path to Peace
Russia continues to show it wants to take more Ukrainian territory beyond its current holdings. Russian Intelligence Chief Sergei Naryshkin rejected any proposal to freeze current battle lines or create buffer zones, despite claiming openness to talks. Russia maintains its demand for Ukraine’s complete surrender and continues to claim territories it doesn’t fully control in four annexed regions. Military planners are also eyeing expansion into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to support their goal of capturing all of Donetsk Oblast.
Pope Francis, speaking to Vatican diplomats, emphasized that dialogue must be central to resolving international conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and Gaza. The 87-year-old Pontiff criticized the “hypocrisy of speaking about peace while playing at war,” drawing from the successful 1984 resolution of the Beagle Conflict between Chile and Argentina. In a recent letter marking Ukraine’s 1,000 days of war, he expressed solidarity with what he called “martyred Ukraine” and its citizens. The Pope specifically highlighted Ukraine and Palestine as examples of current humanitarian failures where “the arrogance of the invader prevails over dialogue.”
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russia has captured 600 square kilometers since early November 2024, including a record 234.79 square kilometers in the past week, with daily gains of approximately 22 square kilometers – significantly lower than the 1,265 square kilometers gained daily in March 2022 but marking the fastest advance since early 2022 according to Russian outlet Agentstvo. While controlling 99% of Luhansk Oblast and 66% of Donetsk Oblast, Russia must seize over 8,000 square kilometers, including well-defended cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, to fully capture Donetsk Oblast, which could take about a year at current rates as forces make gradual advances by exploiting weak points rather than achieving deep breakthroughs. The most significant recent gains occurred near Velyka Novosilka in southern Donetsk Oblast, with additional advances near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Chasiv Yar, while Ukrainian officials warn of a possible new Russian push in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian military forces are facing coordination problems between their artillery, armor, and infantry units, according to a Russian military blogger’s report. The blogger highlighted that artillery units often work in isolation, struggling to effectively target Ukrainian defenses due to a shortage of reconnaissance drones. They also noted that Ukraine’s superior technology gives their forces greater tactical flexibility.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office has launched a war crime investigation into Russian forces executing five unarmed Ukrainian POWs in Petrivka, south of Pokrovsk, on November 13, where troops shot the captured defenders with automatic weapons after forcing them to surrender and lie down. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has notified the UN and Red Cross of this Geneva Convention violation.
Russian authorities announced the capture of British national James Scott Rhys Anderson, 22, in Kursk Oblast. Anderson, a former British army signalman who joined Ukraine’s International Legion, faces charges of terrorism and mercenaryism from Russia. His father expressed deep concern for his son’s safety after seeing a video of his capture. This incident follows Russia’s pattern of treating foreign volunteers as mercenaries rather than prisoners of war, like the 2022 case of British fighters Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, who were eventually freed in a prisoner exchange. The capture occurred amid intensified Russian pressure in Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine has reportedly lost over 40% of previously gained territory since August.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Recent military activity in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast shows Russian forces conducting offensive operations without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces successfully defended against a Russian mechanized assault near Zeleny Shlyakh. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances near Novoivanovka, Kamyshevka, Darino, and Kremyanoye, these have not been independently verified. Russian naval infantry units were reported near Pogrebki. No combat was reported in the Glushkovsky Raion area west of the main Ukrainian position.
US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed Ukraine’s use of US-provided ATACMS missiles for defense, including strikes in Russia’s Kursk Oblast where the Russian Defense Ministry reported multiple attacks on November 23 and 25: two missiles hit an S-400 air defense division near Lotarevka/Kursk City, damaging a radar and causing casualties, while one missile struck the Kursk Vostochny airbase in Khalino, injuring two soldiers – marking Russia’s first public acknowledgment of such attacks since Washington allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS against targets on Russian soil. While these long-range strikes are crucial for weakening Russian military capabilities, their effectiveness is limited by Ukraine’s limited missile supply.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces successfully defended against Russian border attacks near Kharkiv City on November 25-26. Russian forces attempted operations near Kozacha Lopan, Kudiivka, and Vovchansk. While a Russian military blogger claimed their forces entered Hoptivka, Ukrainian officials confirmed repelling this attack at the Hoptivka-Nekhoteyevka checkpoint. Ukrainian military spokesperson Lt. Col. Romanov noted that poor road conditions and Ukrainian defenses are preventing Russian mechanized advances. Local officials reported ongoing small-scale Russian reconnaissance attacks along the border area, with Russian forces reportedly deploying reserves near Hlyboke and Lukyantsi.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces have recaptured positions near Torske, west of Kreminna, and successfully pushed back Russian troops from Kupiansk, a key logistics hub in eastern Kharkiv Oblast with five railway lines and multiple highways supporting Russia’s Donbas control efforts, while Russian forces continue operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, claiming to have taken Kopanky southeast of Kupyansk and conducting operations near Novomlynsk, Synkivka, Novoosynove, and other settlements. Although Russian forces attempted to advance through Kupiansk’s industrial outskirts in early September and claimed advances near Petropavlivka, Zeleniy Hai, and Dvorichna, these claims remain unconfirmed, while their small-group crossings of the Oskil River have been largely unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Kolisnykivka and Zahryzove south of Kupyansk, maintaining control of Kupiansk, which was briefly occupied before its liberation in autumn 2022.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Hryhorivka in the Siversk area but failed to make confirmed advances. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian troops are attacking in small groups with air and artillery support near Siversk and Chasiv Yar. A Ukrainian military spokesperson reported significant Russian casualties in the Siversk area, claiming they’re using damaged equipment and facing morale issues, though these claims cannot be independently verified.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continue attacking near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky, with attempts to enter a refractory plant in central Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian officials report that Russian troops are operating in small groups of two to five soldiers and making repeated daytime attempts to cross the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal, avoiding night operations due to Ukrainian thermal imaging drones.
Toretsk
Russian forces launched intense attacks near Toretsk and surrounding areas including Dachne, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka but made no confirmed advances.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk, capturing positions southwest of Yurivka and in northeastern Petrivka. They likely seized Lysychne and are conducting multiple daily attacks near several settlements including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krasnyi Yar, Lysivka, Pushkine, Pustynka, Novyi Trud, Hryhorivka, and Dachenske. Russian forces are reportedly about two kilometers from Myrnohrad and are using drone strikes followed by ground assaults with groups of 10-20 soldiers, sometimes supported by tanks.
Kurakhove
Russian forces advanced northwest of Dalne, south of Kurakhove. They attacked multiple areas around Kurakhove, including Sontsivka, Novodmytrivka, Zorya, and Berestky. While Russian sources claim additional advances near Berestky and Zorya, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials report that their forces still control Kurakhove while Russian forces attempt to gain fire control over the town and nearby supply routes
Southwest of Donetsk City (Target: Andriivka)
Russian forces launched a mechanized platoon assault near Vuhledar but failed to advance. While Russian sources claim captures of Yelyzavetivka and advances near Romanivka, they continued attacking multiple settlements around Vuhledar, including Katerynivka, Antonivka, Hannivka, Sukhi Yaly, Trudove, Uspenivka, and Kostiantynopolske.
Velyka Novosilka (formerly Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area)
Russian forces advanced southeast of Novodarivka, near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border. While Russian sources claim advances in Rozdolne and Velyka Novosilka, these remain unconfirmed. Fighting continues around Velyka Novosilka, Rivnopil, Novodarivka, and Rozdolne.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Novoandriivka and Bilohirya in western Zaporizhia Oblast but made no confirmed advances. While Russian sources claim advances toward Mala Tokmachka, these remain unverified. Russian airborne snipers are reportedly operating near Orikhiv.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast but the frontline remained unchanged. Russian reserve forces are operating in this area.
Ukraine News
Russia launched its largest drone attack against Ukraine deploying 188 drones (including Iranian-made Shaheds) from Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, along with four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, resulting in two deaths and over 40 injuries. Ukrainian forces intercepted all missiles and 76 drones across 17 oblasts, while 95 drones were disabled by electronic warfare, and five entered Belarusian airspace, with attacks damaging energy infrastructure in Ternopil Oblast causing power outages, and additional missile strikes hitting civilian infrastructure in Sumy City and Odesa Oblast. Russia appears to be using an increasing number of decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, a strategy likely to continue through winter, having launched more than 2,000 strike drones in October alone, prompting President Zelensky to prioritize developing effective countermeasures against Shahed drones.
Russian forces launched a significant attack on Kharkiv Oblast on November 25, with regional head Oleh Synehubov reporting 19 guided glide bombs striking the area – marking one of the largest strikes in the region in over a month.
Ukraine faces significant energy challenges this winter, with potential power deficits up to 19 GW, according to DiXi Group’s Winter Outlooks report. Despite summer repairs adding 3 GW of capacity, Russian strikes in spring 2024 and again on November 17 severely damaged the power infrastructure, with total losses exceeding 9 GW. Nuclear power provides 55% of winter energy needs, supplemented by planned EU electricity imports of 2.1 GW. The report outlines three scenarios: Under normal conditions, Ukraine expects a 2 GW deficit with possible 3–4-hour outages during peak evening hours. In severe cold weather, deficits could reach 5 GW, requiring 6–8-hour outages across regions. Under a crisis scenario with new Russian strikes, the power grid would operate at its limits, potentially requiring emergency outages, particularly during evening peaks. While nighttime conditions should remain stable with EU imports, severe frost could cause shortages even during minimal demand periods.
Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, has nominated Donald Trump for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. The nomination letter, seen by the Kyiv Independent on November 26, cites Trump’s previous Middle East peace agreements and military support for Ukraine. Despite Trump’s praise of Putin and questions about future U.S. aid to Ukraine, Merezhko hopes the nomination will gain Trump’s attention to help Ukraine “achieve just peace” based on international law.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba challenged Joe Rogan to a discussion after the popular podcaster criticized Ukraine without featuring pro-Ukrainian voices on his show. Rogan recently expressed concerns that Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia could trigger World War III, prompting both Kuleba and former boxer Wladimir Klitschko to accuse him of spreading Russian propaganda. Rogan, who has endorsed Donald Trump and has over 18 million YouTube followers, criticized President Zelensky and the Biden administration’s military support for Ukraine. Kuleba offered to discuss “anything Ukraine-related” with Rogan, suggesting they meet for a conversation over cigars.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 2+ INJURIES: 0
A Russian missile struck Sumy hitting a residential building and kindergarten, killing at least two people. The missile, aimed at a vehicle service station, damaged multiple buildings and 13 cars. Emergency services are searching for one person possibly trapped in the rubble.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has launched an investigation into faulty 120 mm mortar shells supplied to Ukrainian forces after reports of misfiring and failed explosions. According to Dzerkalo Tyzhnia news outlet, the issue affects 100,000 domestically produced shells, which were part of an effort to reduce dependence on foreign supplies. The Defense Ministry has withdrawn the problematic ammunition batches and will replace them with imported shells. Preliminary findings suggest low-quality charges and poor storage conditions may be responsible. The State Bureau of Investigation has opened a criminal case, with the ministry promising improved quality control measures. This scandal follows other procurement issues that led to the dismissal of former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Ukraine’s Allies
The White House has approved plans for US defense contractors to send civilian employees to Ukraine to maintain and repair US-supplied weapons, including F-16 fighters and Patriot air defense systems. According to the New York Times, citing Pentagon officials, these contractors would work away from combat zones. The Pentagon is currently seeking bids for this work, aiming to award contracts before January. This marks a policy shift, as previously all US support personnel had to work from neighboring NATO countries, requiring damaged equipment to be transported to Poland or Romania for repairs. Some US defense companies already have contractors in Ukraine working directly with the Ukrainian government on existing contracts.
German Major General Christian Freuding announced in Kyiv that Ukraine will receive two additional IRIS-T air defense systems before Christmas – one medium-range and one short-range system. This is part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s larger commitment of 17 IRIS-T systems announced in September, of which Ukraine has already received seven. The IRIS-T systems, which cost about $189 million each, can intercept drones, helicopters, aircraft, and cruise missiles. Freuding emphasized that German support will continue beyond upcoming political transitions and also offered to provide training for Ukrainian battalion and brigade headquarters to improve combat effectiveness.
Norway may increase its Ukraine support to 30 billion kroner ($2.7 billion) in 2025, doubling the currently proposed 15 billion kroner, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store announced. Norway, currently ranked 12th globally in Ukraine aid with $2.8 billion provided so far, will make its final decision on November 28. This follows Norway’s recent 500-million-euro aid package announced in October.
NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly passed a resolution supporting Ukraine’s bid to become the alliance’s 33rd member. While the assembly has no direct power over NATO policies, it urged member states to help Ukraine join “as soon as possible.” Though Ukraine applied in September 2022, seven nations including the U.S., Germany, and Hungary remain hesitant about fast-track membership. The resolution also called for increased military and humanitarian support for Ukraine, including advanced weapons systems.
The EU’s upcoming 15th sanctions package will target 30 companies and 50 individuals across eight countries, including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, according to Ukrainian sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk. The new measures focus on companies supplying critical components to Russia and will include North Korean officials involved in sending troops to support Russian forces. The package will also restrict 45 Russian oil tankers from European ports. China has denied providing weapons despite evidence of Chinese parts in Russian military equipment.
A recent CBS/YouGov poll shows Americans are almost evenly divided on continuing military aid to Ukraine, with 51% opposing and 49% supporting. The survey of 2,232 respondents reflects growing partisan differences since Russia’s 2022 invasion, particularly among Republicans. When asked about President-elect Trump’s priority in limiting Ukraine aid, 33% called it high priority, 36% medium, and 31% no priority.
Russia News
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has replaced Southern Military District commander Colonel General Gennady Anashkin with Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik. While state media RBK reports this as a planned rotation, with Anashkin moving to head Moscow’s Frunze Military Academy, Russian military bloggers claim his removal was due to commanders submitting false reports about battlefield advances near Siversk. Additionally, Lieutenant General Andrei Ivanayev was appointed Eastern Military District commander, while Colonel General Alexander Lapin now serves as both Leningrad Military District and Northern Grouping of Forces Commander.
Russia’s Gazprom expects to cease gas transit through Ukraine after December 31, 2024, when the current agreement expires. Ukraine, which earns up to $1 billion annually in transit fees, has indicated it won’t renew the deal, though Moscow remains open to continuing flows. Gazprom anticipates European and Turkish gas exports will drop 20% to 39 billion cubic meters in 2025, down from 49 bcm expected this year. Currently, Russian gas flows through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline via the Sudzha entry point in Russia’s Kursk region to Slovakia, carrying about 15 bcm in 2023 – just 8% of peak 2018-2019 levels. Following the Ukraine war and Nord Stream pipeline explosion, Europe has shifted toward U.S. LNG supplies, with EU gas consumption at 295 bcm in 2023.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1580 735410 |
Tanks +14 9449 |
Artillery +24 20830 |
Arm. VEH +48 19304 |
Aircraft  369 |
Heli 329 |
Ships 28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities have significantly increased recruitment bonuses for military volunteers in Berezniki, Perm Krai, raising one-time payments from 150,000 to 400,000 rubles ($1,421 to $3,971). This move appears aimed at attracting volunteers rather than implementing another partial mobilization.
Russia’s Allies
Belarus helped Russia evade sanctions by exporting $125 million in microchips to Russian defense companies between September 2022 and June 2024, including nearly 10,000 Western-made chips worth $400,000, according to the Belarusian Investigative Center.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com