Summary of the Day:
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears firmly opposed to peace negotiations, according to influential Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, who told the Financial Times that Putin will only consider talks if Ukraine stops using Western weapons against Russia, President Zelensky is removed from office, and Trump agrees to meet with Putin to discuss broader security issues. While Ukrainian President Zelensky has expressed openness to diplomatic solutions to recover occupied territories including Crimea, the Kremlin remains committed to military victory.
Russia has increased its production of Shahed-type drone frames domestically, enabling larger drone attacks against Ukraine, typically launching 80-100 drones in single strike packages. However, Ukraine’s enhanced electronic warfare capabilities have proven increasingly effective, with the percentage of Russian drones disrupted by EW rising from 22% in October to 45% in recent attacks. Some redirected drones have entered Belarusian airspace, causing unexpected complications for Belarus-Russia coordination.
On the battlefield, Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian forces made gains near Chasiv Yar. Russian military command is focusing on training additional forces and improving tactical assault operations. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is working to minimize the war’s social impact at home, preparing for the challenges of reintegrating veterans and attempting to frame any outcome as a victory to maintain domestic support, despite failing to achieve its stated objectives in Ukraine.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian servicemen of the mobile air defense unit fire a machine gun at Russian drones during night patrol in Chernihiv Oblast. Armed with portable anti-aircraft complexes and machine guns of various systems, servicemen from the mobile anti-aircraft fire groups are on round-the-clock duty to protect the airspace over Chernihiv Oblast from attacks by Russian drones. (Maksym Kishka/Suspilne Ukraine / JSC “UA:PBC” / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russian forces retreat from key positions in Damascus, Hama, Homs, and Suwayda. The hasty Russian withdrawal, including the abandonment of their base in Khan Shaykhun with its stockpile of weapons, signals a potential realignment of Middle Eastern stability. The involvement of Turkish-backed forces and reported Ukrainian special forces support adds an international dimension to the conflict, raising concerns about a broader destabilization of the region. This deterioration of Russia’s military position in Syria could have far-reaching implications for global security, particularly as it coincides with ongoing tensions in Ukraine and shifting alliances in the Middle East.
In Tbilisi, Georgian police violently dispersed pro-EU protesters and detained over 220 people, including opposition leader Zurab Japaridze and journalists, after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze suspended EU accession talks until 2028, using teargas and water cannons against demonstrators who responded with barricades and fireworks, resulting in thirty-seven hospitalizations on December 2 and serious injuries among detainees according to President Salome Zourabichvili, while the Prime Minister claimed 113 police officers were injured and compared the protests to Ukraine’s 2013-2014 EuroMaidan Revolution; the ruling Georgian Dream party, whose October election victory is contested, faces accusations of Moscow alignment, with the Kremlin labeling these protests as an “orange revolution” attempt, raising concerns about Russian interference and democratic backsliding in Georgia, while Ukraine’s condemnation of the crackdown as a “Belarusian scenario” underscores growing worries about expanding authoritarian practices in former Soviet states that could potentially destabilize the region, create another flashpoint between Western democratic values and Russian influence, and undermine regional peace efforts and European security architecture.
The potential shift in US foreign policy under Trump could significantly reshape global stability. His dual approach of threatening BRICS nations with punitive tariffs while proposing to ease Russian sanctions sends mixed signals about international cooperation and conflict resolution. The suggested peace plan for Ukraine, involving a ceasefire and demilitarized zone, could set a concerning precedent where military aggression leads to diplomatic concessions. Meanwhile, the BRICS nations’ consideration of an alternative currency to the US dollar reflects growing tensions in the international economic order. These developments could either lead to increased global polarization or force new diplomatic alignments, with significant implications for future peace negotiations and international relations.
Romania’s recent electoral shift toward far-right, pro-Russian politics poses significant risks to regional stability and Ukraine’s war effort. Anti-NATO candidate Calin Georgescu, who secured 23% in the presidential first round and faces a December 8 runoff, has praised Putin and questioned the war’s reality. If elected, he could disrupt Romania’s crucial support for Ukraine, which includes military aid, hosting F-16 training, and managing 25% of Ukrainian agricultural exports through its ports. This potential pivot in Romania’s stance, combined with similar trends in Slovakia and growing Ukraine fatigue across Europe, could trigger a regional domino effect that weakens Western unity at a critical time, especially as Donald Trump’s likely return to the White House in January 2025 may further destabilize NATO’s commitment to Ukraine.
The Path to Peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that some Russian-occupied territories may need to be liberated through diplomacy rather than military force once Ukraine secures NATO membership. In an interview with Kyodo News, he acknowledged Ukraine’s army currently lacks the strength to reclaim territories held by Russia since 2014, including Crimea. This marks a shift from Kyiv’s previous stance as Russian forces advance in the east and Western support remains uncertain. While not recognizing Russian occupation as legitimate, Zelensky expressed openness to deferring the status of occupied territories in exchange for NATO entry. He called for immediate NATO membership talks during the December 3-4 Foreign Ministerial Meeting, noting Article 5 protections would not apply to currently occupied territories. Zelensky also addressed concerns about Donald Trump’s potential return to the presidency, stating Ukraine would not capitulate despite Trump’s criticism of military aid to Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Zelensky cautioned against individual leaders engaging in separate talks with Russian President Putin, following German Chancellor Scholz’s recent conversation with Putin on November 15. During a joint press conference with Scholz, Zelensky warned that such interactions could legitimize Putin’s position rather than strengthen Ukraine. While Scholz used the call to advocate for Ukraine’s sovereignty and demand Russian troop withdrawal, Zelensky expressed concern that multiple European leaders engaging with Putin individually could lead to his gradual recognition.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow urging both Ukraine and Russia to pursue negotiations. During the meeting, Szijjarto claimed the war cannot be resolved militarily and requires diplomatic solutions. This aligns with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban’s position, who has blocked aid to Ukraine, advocated for negotiations with Russia, and sought to position himself as a potential negotiator between the two countries, despite criticism from the European Union.
Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev revealed in a Financial Times interview that Putin will likely reject Ukraine peace negotiations unless demands are met, including halting Ukraine’s use of Western weapons against Russia, removing President Zelensky, and securing a meeting with Trump to discuss Ukraine, European security, Middle East conflicts, and Russia’s alliance with China; while Malofeev asserts the war has strengthened Russia’s relationships with China, Iran, and North Korea and boosted its economy, evidence indicates Russia faces significant economic challenges from inflation, sanctions, and labor shortages, particularly if the war continues at its current pace into 2025, and although Ukrainian President Zelensky has shown openness to diplomatic solutions to end the war and recover occupied territories including Crimea, Putin and Russian officials remain committed to achieving military victory and destroying the Ukrainian state rather than engaging in meaningful negotiations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
President Zelensky announced changes in Ukraine’s Armed Forces, including General Mykhailo Drapatyi’s appointment as Ground Forces commander, replacing Oleksandr Pavliuk. These changes align with Zelensky’s recently unveiled resilience plan, with more personnel reshuffles expected. Meanwhile, Russia gained over 600 square kilometers in November despite suffering 45,720 casualties. Russian forces continue advancing in the Donetsk sector, targeting the towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
Ukraine has significantly enhanced its electronic warfare (EW) capabilities against Russian Shahed drone attacks, improving disruption rates from 22% on October 2 to 45% in today’s attack, enabling them to ground drones, cause them to get lost, or redirect them into Russian or Belarusian airspace; this improvement is evidenced by Russian drones violating Belarusian airspace on December 1-2, with 31 Shahed drones flying near Loyeu, Brahin, Rechytsa, Mazyr, Homiel, and Khoiniki, following a record violation of 38 drones on November 24-25 that forced Belarus to scramble jets in response, indicating a lack of coordination between Russia and Belarus regarding these drone operations, as reported by the Hajun Project monitoring group.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Fighting persisted in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast region with neither side making confirmed advances. Russian sources reported combat near several settlements including Martynovka, Novoivanovka, Darino, Nikolaevo-Darino, Pogrebki, and Plekhovo. Ukrainian officials reported constant Russian assaults using both armored vehicles and lighter transport like motorcycles and ATVs. After Ukrainian forces breached Russian defenses in August, Russian authorities reportedly committed 10 million rubles to fortify the entire border area. A Ukrainian HIMARS strike allegedly hit a Russian airborne brigade command post on November 30, while Chechen special forces and Russian airborne units continue operating in the region.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks north of Kharkiv City near Kozacha Lopan and in areas near Starytsya, Tykhe, and Vovchansk but made no advances. Russian sources reported counterattacks near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, and Lyptsi. Ukrainian forces have reportedly been targeting the Hlyboke area to disrupt Russian supply lines, while Russian forces operate near the Belgorod Oblast border.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed advances near several settlements including Novomlynsk, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Pishchane, and Berestove near Kupyansk, and near Lozova and Zeleny Hai west of Svatove. Fighting continues in Kruhlyakivka, which remains contested. Russian forces also launched assaults near Hlushkivka, Kopanky, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Yampolivka, Terny, Torske, and Hryhorivka. Russian special forces are operating drones near Zarichne, while motorized rifle units are active near Terny.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attempted to advance near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but made no confirmed progress. Ukrainian spokesperson Major Anastasiya Bobovnikova reported that Russian vehicles were exposed while crossing open fields, making them vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes.
Chasiv Yar
Ukrainian forces advanced southeast of Chasiv Yar along the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway, as confirmed by footage showing Russian forces engaging Ukrainian positions. Russian forces continued attacks in central Chasiv Yar near the refractory plant and north near Hryhorivka. A Ukrainian officer reported that Russian forces are using small groups to infiltrate Chasiv Yar at dusk and in poor weather to avoid drone strikes.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced south of Toretsk to the Tsentralna Mine, reportedly capturing two waste heaps in the area. Russian forces attacked Toretsk itself, along with nearby Nelipivka and Shcherbynivka. Ukrainian spokesperson Bobovnikova reported that Russians are using infantry in urban areas of Toretsk but employed armored vehicles near Nelipivka, suffering roughly 500 casualties in one week of assaults on Toretsk.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced within Zhovte, south of Pokrovsk. They launched attacks near multiple settlements including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krasnyi Yar, Novyi Trud, Dachenske, Chumatske, and Pushkine. Russian forces were reported operating near Selydove.
Kurakhove
Russian forces made small advances near Kurakhove, particularly northwest of Sontsivka and west of Berestky near the Kurakhivske Reservoir. While Russian sources claim to control over half of Kurakhove, independent assessment shows they hold about 39 percent. Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Kurakhove itself, Berestky, Stari Terny, Sontsivka, Zorya, Novodmytrivka, and Dalne.
Southwest of Donetsk City (Target: Andriivka)
Russian sources claimed advances near Vuhledar, including near Yelyzavetivka and Illinka. While they claimed to control 75% of Romanivka, independent assessment shows only 11% Russian control. Fighting continued near several settlements including Hannivka, Antonivka, Trudove, and Kostiantynopolske, with Russian special forces reportedly operating northwest of Maksymivka.
Velyka Novosilka (formerly Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area)
Russian sources claimed to have captured Novyi Komar northeast of Vuhledar and advanced toward Rozlyv. Fighting continued around Velyka Novosilka and nearby Novopil, with Russian forces reportedly operating near Velyka Novosilka. Russian sources suggest they are positioning for a larger assault on Velyka Novosilka by targeting the town’s flanks and supply lines.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian sources reported ongoing positional fighting in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no frontline changes. Some Russian sources suggested potential new offensives after December 5.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks along the Dnipro River in eastern Kherson Oblast but made no confirmed advances. First snowfall and freezing temperatures were reported in the Kherson area.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 110 Shahed and other drones from Kursk, Oryol, Rostov oblasts and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, with Ukrainian forces shooting down 52 drones across multiple regions including Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Kharkiv, while 50 were disabled by electronic warfare; the attacks damaged residential buildings in Chernihiv Oblast and energy infrastructure in Ternopil City, where a missile strike on an apartment building killed one person and injured three, marking another incident in Russia’s broader campaign targeting Ukraine’s power grid that included 347 missiles and over 2,500 Shahed drones in November alone according to President Zelensky, with the aim of disrupting Ukraine’s winter power supply; while Russian sources claimed strikes on various military targets across Ukraine, these claims remain unverified, and although Ternopil, a city of 225,000 residents, is far from the front lines, it has faced multiple recent drone attacks, leaving parts of the city without power as reported by Mayor Serhii Nadal.
President Zelensky has disputed Western media reports claiming 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war with Russia, stating the actual number is “much less.” While he didn’t provide specific figures, Zelensky acknowledged uncertainty about casualties in occupied territories. The Wall Street Journal reported 80,000 deaths and 400,000 wounded Ukrainian soldiers, while The Economist estimated 60,000-100,000 deaths. In contrast, Ukraine reports Russian losses at nearly 744,000 troops (including killed, wounded, missing, and captured), with November 2023 showing record daily casualties exceeding 2,000 soldiers. Independent journalists have confirmed almost 81,000 Russian military deaths through open-source verification.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 4 INJURIES: 23
A Russian drone struck an apartment building in Ternopil, western Ukraine, killing one person and wounding four others. The attack forced the evacuation of about 100 residents and caused extensive damage to surrounding buildings, including a school, and destroyed 20 cars.
Russian forces attacked Nikopol and the Marhanets community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring a 60-year-old man.
Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast injured five civilians: two in Pokrovsk, two in Shevchenko village, and one in Andriivka village.
Russian forces struck a minibus in Kherson city killing three people and injuring 11. Two additional injuries were reported elsewhere in Kherson Oblast, bringing the total to 13 wounded in the region over the past day
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s military officials confirmed they have sufficient manpower from the current pool of men aged 25 and older, making it unnecessary to lower the draft age. Ivan Tymochko, head of the Council of Reservists in Ukraine’s Ground Forces, emphasized that modern warfare depends more on technology than troop numbers. While the draft age remains at 25, a new program will begin in January 2025 providing mandatory military training for citizens aged 18 to 25, though these trainees will return to civilian life after completion rather than being mobilized for active service.
Ukraine’s Allies
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made his first visit to Kyiv since June 2022 on December 2, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the war and potential peace terms following Scholz’s November 15 phone call with Russian President Putin, which was coordinated with US, British, and French leaders; during the visit, Scholz announced €650 million in new military aid this December as part of a larger €1.4 billion package from October, including two IRIS-T air defense systems, armored vehicles, attack drones, 10 Leopard 1 tanks, and winter equipment, though he is unlikely to approve Ukraine’s request for long-range Taurus missiles despite Germany being Ukraine’s second-largest military donor after the U.S.; while Scholz aims to ensure Ukraine’s interests are protected in any future peace negotiations and honored fallen Ukrainian soldiers alongside Zelensky, the Ukrainian President expressed concerns about dialogue with Putin.
The U.S. announced a $725 million weapons package for Ukraine marking a significant increase in military aid. Secretary Blinken confirmed the package will include Stinger missiles, HIMARS ammunition, artillery rounds, drones, and landmines. This is notably larger than typical aid packages of $125-250 million. The package includes “non-persistent” landmines, which self-deactivate after a short period, marking the first U.S. landmine export in decades. The Biden administration aims to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities before the January transition of power, with $4-5 billion in additional funding still available.
NATO is unlikely to extend a membership invitation to Ukraine during its December 3-4 Foreign Ministerial Meeting in Brussels, according to diplomatic sources. While Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has urged NATO to invite Ukraine to join, citing concerns about Russian escalation, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized that immediate military aid takes priority over membership discussions. President Zelensky has recently suggested ending active combat in exchange for NATO membership, acknowledging that NATO’s collective defense might not apply to territories under Russian control. The focus of the meeting will instead be on strengthening Ukraine’s position for potential future negotiations through increased military support.
France and the UK are exploring options to deploy troops along Ukraine’s contact line to monitor a potential ceasefire, according to a senior NATO official speaking to RFE/RL. French Foreign Minister Barrot stated that while France isn’t planning combat deployments, they “do not discard any option.” These discussions are happening outside NATO’s official structure, aiming to prepare for scenarios involving greater European involvement, particularly if requested by the incoming U.S. administration. Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur countered that Ukraine needs increased military production support rather than foreign troops.
Russia News
Russian forces faced technical difficulties during their November 28 missile strike against Ukraine, with at least one Kh-101 missile crashing in Iki-Burul, Kalmykia, about 650 kilometers from its launch point in the Caspian Sea. Russian bombers typically launch missiles over large bodies of water due to their unreliability, a practice dating back to 2015 when similar failures occurred during strikes on Syria, including a missile crash near Shush, Iran. Despite these precautions, missile malfunctions continue to occur during Russian attacks on Ukraine, with the latest strike involving nearly 200 missiles and drones.
According to Russian business outlet Kommersant, the Kremlin is preparing to frame any outcome of the Ukraine war as a victory to satisfy both ultranationalists and more moderate Russians. This effort aligns with United Russia party’s goals for the 2026 legislative elections, which include achieving 55 percent voter turnout and votes. The Kremlin plans to focus on abstract achievements like “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine, while downplaying negative impacts such as returning injured veterans, regardless of actual battlefield outcomes.
The Russian Presidential Administration is concerned about reintegrating traumatized war veterans into society, particularly given Russia’s low unemployment rate. This suggests the Kremlin is preparing for potential social challenges when veterans return to civilian life. These preparations, along with efforts to reframe the war’s outcome as a victory, indicate that Russia has failed to achieve its stated goals of “denazifying” and “demilitarizing” Ukraine or capturing all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions.
Amnesty International has condemned Russian attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure as war crimes, specifically citing the November 28 missile and drone assault that targeted energy facilities across seven major cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Lviv, Lutsk, and Rivne. The strikes damaged critical power systems, causing emergency blackouts affecting over a million homes, with Amnesty’s Director Marie Struthers stating that Russia’s deliberate targeting of essential services during winter months appears designed to maximize civilian suffering.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1790 743920 |
Tanks +9 9478 |
Artillery +30 20953 |
Arm. VEH +28 19397 |
Aircraft  369 |
Heli 329 |
Ships 28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military reports training 300,000 contract servicemembers in 2024, including 3,000 drone operators according to Colonel General Ivan Buvaltsev, matching Defense Ministry advisor Ruslan Pukhov’s predictions, with forces focusing on small tactical assault units of two to five soldiers and emphasizing drone and electronic warfare training; while Russia advances toward Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in the Donetsk sector and reports 335,000 volunteer signups in 2023 and 200,000 in 2024, Ukrainian military reports indicate record Russian casualties in November with 45,720 Russian soldiers killed, wounded, or captured, bringing total Russian losses to 743,920 troops since the war began according to Ukraine’s General Staff, though these figures cannot be independently verified.
Russia has significantly increased payments to encourage military recruitment, offering an average of 900,000 rubles ($8,450) from regional governments plus 400,000 rubles ($3,756) from the federal government to new contract soldiers. Meanwhile, over 3,000 forcibly mobilized soldiers from occupied Luhansk Oblast are reportedly being denied payment for their service and combat injuries. This payment disparity between Russian federal subjects and occupied Ukrainian territories highlights Russia’s ongoing struggles with military recruitment and personnel management.
Russia has increased its production of Shahed-type drone frames domestically, while still relying on Iranian and Chinese components, according to Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk. This has enabled Russia to launch larger drone attacks against Ukraine, often using 80 to 100 or more Shahed and decoy drones in single strike packages.
Russian military support is shifting toward private sources for drone and electronic warfare equipment. Andrei Bezrukov, who leads Russia’s Center for Unmanned Systems and Technologies, announced that his organization, along with the United Russia party and “Our Right” fund, have supplied over 30,000 drones and 4,000 electronic warfare systems to Russian forces. The center is also developing technology hubs at the Skolkovo innovation center to reduce costs and enhance collaboration among dual-use startups.
A Russian design company, “MiS,” announced that they’ve upgraded their MiS-35M drone with a new system called “Povodyr” that allows the drone to automatically return to its starting point if it loses connection due to electronic warfare interference.
Russia’s Allies
North Korean soldiers deployed to support Russia’s war in Ukraine have suffered casualties, President Zelensky revealed. Of an estimated 10,000-12,000 troops sent by Pyongyang, about 2,000 have joined Russian Marine and airborne units. Zelensky warned that Russia is treating initial North Korean forces well to encourage more deployments, ultimately planning to use them as “cannon fodder.” North Korea has also supplied Russia with over 100 ballistic missiles and 5 million artillery shells, reportedly receiving economic support and nuclear program assistance in return.
Russia has fired at least 60 North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian military intelligence. North Korea’s support for Russia has increased following a mutual defense pact signed between Putin and Kim Jong Un in June. The aid includes over 5 million artillery shells, 100 short-range ballistic missiles, and thousands of North Korean troops fighting in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian officials report the North Korean missiles have low accuracy due to outdated technology. In exchange for military support, North Korea allegedly receives economic aid and assistance for its nuclear weapons program.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russia’s presidential administration held a strategy session with vice-governors to shape public perception of an eventual war outcome as a victory, according to Kommersant news outlet. Officials were instructed to focus on appeasing the “quiet majority” who would accept retaining currently occupied territories. The administration also addressed concerns about returning soldiers, emphasizing the need for rehabilitation and employment programs to prevent their involvement in protests or crime.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reports that about 90% of major pro-Kremlin Telegram channels haven’t registered with Roskomnadzor (Russian federal censor) despite a government requirement to do so by January 1, 2025. The requirement affects channels with over 10,000 subscribers, who must provide personal information about their operators or face advertising restrictions. Notable figures who haven’t registered include Ramzan Kadyrov, Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Solovyov, and the Rybar channel, suggesting resistance to government efforts to control social media, even among pro-Kremlin voices.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com