Summary of the Day:
Russian forces evacuated all naval assets from their base in Tartus, Syria, including three frigates, one submarine, and two support vessels, suggesting a reduced commitment to supporting Assad’s regime. Russia has deployed its Africa Corps to Syria instead of regular military forces, indicating an unwillingness to divert resources from Ukraine. These vessels cannot return to the Black Sea due to Turkey’s enforcement of the Montreux Convention.
In Ukraine, Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, but continued to suffer significant personnel and armored vehicle losses throughout November 2024. Ukrainian forces successfully counter-attacked in Kursk Oblast and regained previously lost positions near Kupyansk.
India is significantly reducing its defense cooperation with Russia, canceling joint development projects for helicopters and fighter jets while increasing partnerships with Western defense companies. This shift reflects growing concerns about the reliability and maintenance costs of Russian military equipment.
Russian officials attempted to manipulate public perception regarding POW exchanges, claiming readiness to swap 630 Ukrainian POWs. However, Ukrainian authorities revealed that Russia has not submitted official exchange requests and that the published list includes already-returned POWs and civilians, suggesting this is part of a broader disinformation campaign.
Picture of the Day:
Workers install the main Christmas tree on Sofia Square in Kyiv. This Christmas, Kyiv will celebrate without mass events, to ensure safety. The city will not spend budget funds on New Year’s locations — the Christmas tree is set up with donor funds. (Oleksii Samsonov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
In a significant development, Russia has evacuated all naval vessels from its Tartus base in Syria, including three frigates (Admiral Gorshkov, Admiral Golovko, and Admiral Grigorovich), a submarine (Novorossiysk), and two support vessels (likely Yelnya and Vyazma). Due to Turkey’s enforcement of the Montreux Convention, these ships cannot enter the Black Sea and will likely be redeployed to northwestern Russia and Kaliningrad. Syrian rebel forces, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, launched a surprise offensive on November 27, capturing the strategic city of Aleppo and advancing toward several key cities including Damascus, Hama, Homs, and Suwayda. The offensive reportedly benefited from Ukrainian military intelligence support and forced Russian troops to evacuate from Hama to Khmeimim Air Base.
In response to these setbacks, Russia has replaced their commander, Gen. Sergey Kiselyov, with Gen. Alexander Chayko and is deploying its Africa Corps to Syria, consisting largely of former Wagner Group members, along with Arab interpreters to Hama. This decision to use mercenaries rather than regular military forces from Ukraine suggests Russia’s unwillingness to divert significant military resources from the Ukrainian conflict. The situation has become particularly critical for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, as both of its key backers – Russia and Iran – are constrained by other conflicts, with Russia focused on Ukraine and Iran distracted by conflicts involving Israel.
This escalation threatens regional stability and could reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, potentially creating a power vacuum in Syria that affects broader peace efforts. The situation benefits Ukraine indirectly by forcing Russia to divide its attention and resources between two major conflicts. Furthermore, Russia’s use of private military companies to extend its influence across multiple regions raises concerns about broader international peace and security, particularly as it demonstrates Russia’s continued ability to project military power despite its ongoing involvement in Ukraine.
Massive protests continue for the fifth day in Tbilisi, Georgia, after the ruling Georgian Dream party won contested parliamentary elections and announced plans to delay EU accession until 2028. Over 220 protesters have been detained and dozens injured as police use tear gas and water cannons to disperse demonstrations, which have spread to cities including Batumi, Zugdidi, Kutaisi, Telavi, and Gurjaani. The crisis highlights growing tensions between Georgia’s pro-EU aspirations and its government’s increasing alignment with Russia. The ruling party, led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has passed Russia-style restrictive laws and strengthened ties with Moscow, despite Russia’s ongoing occupation of 20% of Georgian territory in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This situation threatens regional stability and demonstrates the ongoing struggle between democratic, pro-Western movements and authoritarian influences in the post-Soviet space.
The parliament of Russian-occupied Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia, has rejected a controversial investment agreement that would have allowed Russians to purchase local property. The decision follows mass protests against the deal, which demonstrators viewed as favoring Moscow’s interests. The region’s tensions have escalated with reports of Russian construction at the Ochamchire naval base, despite local officials’ denials. This situation highlights growing friction between Russia and even its aligned territories, with potential implications for regional stability, particularly as Ukraine has threatened to target Russian naval assets wherever they are stationed. The developments in Abkhazia underscore broader concerns about Russia’s influence in neighboring territories and its impact on peace in the Black Sea region.
India is significantly reducing its defense ties with Russia, traditionally one of its largest military suppliers, in favor of Western defense partnerships and domestic production. Indian officials report canceling joint projects with Russia, including helicopter and fighter jet development, and are reconsidering plans to lease Russian nuclear submarines. This shift reflects growing concerns about the reliability and long-term costs of Russian military equipment, as well as tensions in the India-Russia relationship following Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine. This realignment could impact global military alliances and potentially weaken Russia’s position as a major arms exporter, while strengthening Western influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The shift could contribute to a more stable international order by reducing India’s dependence on Russian military technology and aligning it more closely with Western democratic powers.
Belarus and Azerbaijan are strengthening their military ties, with Belarus hosting Azerbaijani defense officials from December 3-5 to discuss military logistics support. This growing military cooperation between Belarus, a close Russian ally, and Azerbaijan could potentially increase regional tensions and affect stability in the Caucasus region.
The Path to Peace
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that forcing Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal would pose serious security threats from China, Iran, and North Korea. During their meeting in Florida, Rutte emphasized that a weak deal with Russia could encourage similar actions from other nations, particularly China regarding Taiwan. The warning comes as Trump has pledged to swiftly end the conflict and reduce U.S. involvement, while Iran and North Korea continue supporting Russia with weapons and troops. Trump’s proposed peace envoy, Keith Kellogg, has suggested freezing the conflict along current front lines and delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership, though Ukrainian officials urge Trump to maintain support through a “peace through strength” approach.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces experienced unprecedented casualties in November 2024, with approximately 45,000 total casualties, including their deadliest single day since World War II on November 29 when 2,030 soldiers were killed or wounded during attacks in the Donbas region and Kursk province, and nearly 9,000 troops and 40 tanks lost in eastern Ukraine just in the last week of November, averaging about 1,700 troops lost per day and resulting in the highest weekly loss rate of the war at 9,300-10,900 men, bringing total Russian casualties since February 2022 to over 750,000. The Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade suffered triple the losses of other units in Kursk Oblast, with a notable defeat occurring on November 10-12 near Novoivanovka and Pogrebki in Kursk, while major fighting centered around the logistics hubs of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donbas, and despite these heavy losses, Russian forces made limited advances, capturing territory at a rate of 22 square kilometers per day. The situation has become so dire that Russia is struggling with military equipment, facing ammunition shortages and relying on tanks with minimal ammunition to transport troops, and has reportedly begun recruiting female convicts for assault groups due to personnel shortages.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made advances in Kursk Oblast, specifically in southern Darino. Fighting continues in several locations, including Novoivanovka and Malaya Loknya, though Russian claims of advances in these areas remain unconfirmed. Russian forces reportedly face significant logistical challenges in the region, struggling with supply lines and troop movements.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near the Russia-Ukraine border north of Kharkiv City targeting Kozacha Lopan, Hlyboke, Starytsya, and Vovchansk, but failed to gain ground. Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Hlyboke.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attempt to cross the Oskil River near Novomlynsk, approximately 20 kilometers north of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, where despite initially establishing a bridgehead on the western bank due to their numerical advantage, Russian forces were pushed back by Ukrainian defenders supported by artillery and drones. The victory was confirmed by raising the Ukrainian flag in Novomlynsk, and while Russia has made progress near Kupyansk, a key town divided by the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces have maintained control of their positions there, with the Oskil River continuing to serve as a crucial front line between Russian and Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces attacked along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 3, targeting multiple settlements including Kopanky, Lozova, Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Pershotravneve, Zelenyi Hai, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Yampolivka, and Terny. Russian claims of advances near Kopanky, Lozova, and control of the P-97 highway remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk but failed to gain ground.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar though no confirmed advances were made. While a Russian military blogger claimed troops entered the southern part of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant, this hasn’t been independently verified. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson noted that Russian attacks and airstrikes in the area have decreased recently, partly due to winter weather affecting drone operations and logistics challenges. Russian forces are reportedly taking advantage of reduced Ukrainian drone capability to conduct ground assaults in the area.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced near Toretsk with confirmed movement near the Tsentralna Mine waste heaps southwest of the city. Fighting continues around Toretsk itself and nearby settlements of Nelipivka and Shcherbynivka. Reports indicate a fluid battle situation in the area, with Ukrainian forces reportedly launching counterattacks near the Tsentralna Mine.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk with confirmed movement southeast of Dachenske. While Russian sources claimed additional advances near several settlements including Mykolaivka, Lysivka, Petrivka, Zhovte, and Novopustynaka, these claims remain unverified. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson noted that Russian forces have reduced the size of their assault groups in the area, likely due to high casualties.
Kurakhove
Russian forces claimed advances near Kurakhove, including movement north of Stari Terny and into western Kurakhove’s Prokofieva Street, though these claims remain unconfirmed. Active fighting continues in and around Kurakhove and nearby settlements of Berestky, Stari Terny, Sontsivka, Zorya, Novodmytrivka, and Dalne.
Andriivka
Russian forces claimed to have captured Romanivka northeast of Vuhledar, though this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian mechanized assault near Maksymivka, destroying two tanks and two infantry fighting vehicles. Fighting continues around several settlements near Vuhledar, including Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, Katerynivka, Hannivka, Sukhi Yaly, and Kostiantynopolske.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced into northern Novyi Komar near Velyka Novosilka. While Russian forces claimed to have captured Novodarivka southwest of Velyka Novosilka, this remains unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are conducting 20-25 daily assaults in the area using small groups with armored vehicles, aiming to reach the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk oblast border. Fighting continues around several settlements including Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, Novosilka, Novodarivka, and Novopil.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Robotyne, Novoandriivka, and Novodanylivka but made no advances. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are training new assault units and building up their electronic warfare and air defense capabilities in the area. Russian sources claim Ukraine is preparing for increased Russian offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked near Kozatskyi Island in the Dnipro River area near Nova Kakhovka but achieved no confirmed advances.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a drone attack against Ukrainian energy infrastructure using 28 Shahed and other drones launched from multiple Russian regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 22 drones across nine oblasts, while strikes hit energy facilities in Ternopil City and Rivne Oblast. Falling drone debris damaged homes and a gas pipeline in Kyiv Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine is looking for new ways to defend 20 unspecified “special objects” across the country, while acknowledging that Ukraine still lacks adequate air defense systems to protect its critical facilities.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has declared that full NATO membership is the only acceptable security guarantee for the country, rejecting any alternative arrangements. This statement, issued during the NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels and on the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, criticized past security agreements as inadequate. The Ministry pointed out that the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which required Ukraine to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for territorial integrity guarantees, failed to prevent Russian aggression. President Zelensky has suggested the possibility of joining NATO with partial application of Article 5 and proposed that a ceasefire could be achieved if NATO extends protection to territories currently under Kyiv’s control, while temporarily setting aside occupied regions for future diplomatic resolution.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called for 20 air defense systems including HAWK, NASAMS, and IRIS-T batteries from NATO partners aiming to prevent blackouts during Ukraine’s third winter at war.
Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, will lead a delegation including Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko to the United States tomorrow. The delegation plans to meet with President-elect Trump’s inner circle, particularly Keith Kellogg, nominee for special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg’s proposed peace plan would freeze the Ukraine front line, delay NATO accession, partially lift Russian sanctions, while maintaining U.S. military aid and security guarantees to Ukraine.
UNESCO has added the Ukrainian art of pysanka (Easter egg decoration) to its Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity list. The traditional practice, which predates Christianity, involves creating complex patterns on eggs using a wax-resist method. Culture Minister Mykola Tochitsky emphasized the significance of this recognition while noting that Russia has destroyed over 1,000 Ukrainian cultural heritage sites since the invasion began.
Ukraine’s parliament has approved Oleksii Chernyshov as the new vice prime minister and minister for national unity, with 237 lawmakers supporting his appointment. The renamed Ministry of National Unity of Ukraine (formerly the Ministry for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories) will focus on strengthening ties with the Ukrainian diaspora, including the 6.7 million refugees who have left since the war began. Chernyshov previously served as Kyiv Oblast governor and CEO of the state energy company Naftogaz Group.
G7 ambassadors met with leading Ukrainian journalists from major outlets like the Kyiv Independent, NV, and Ukrainska Pravda to discuss press freedom concerns amid reports of state pressure on media, including recent incidents such as threats against investigative journalist Yurii Nikolov after exposing Defense Ministry procurement issues, alleged targeting of journalist Yevhen Shulhat by military enlistment officers, and Ukrainska Pravda’s claims of systematic pressure from the Presidential Office through advertising boycotts and restricted access to official events. A controversial bill that would impose up to eight years imprisonment for accessing or sharing confidential state register information during martial law was scheduled for a vote in Ukraine’s parliament on December 3 but was postponed after EU and G7 intervention, with media organizations, including the Anti-Corruption Action Center, Bihus.info, and Ukrainska Pravda, strongly opposing the legislation as it would severely restrict press freedom and investigative journalism, while Vitaliy Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, warns the law would effectively prevent journalists from exposing corruption and could subject them to surveillance and wiretapping.
A German court has sentenced four teenagers to 8.5-10 years in youth detention for the murder of two Ukrainian basketball players, Volodymyr Yermakov (17) and Artem Kozachenko (18), in Oberhausen. The perpetrators, aged 14-15 at the time and including two Syrians and two Germans, attacked the victims in February after a bus journey, resulting in fatal stabbings. While prosecutors initially suspected an anti-Ukrainian motive, the court found no evidence of xenophobia, stating the attackers were simply “looking for trouble.” The victims had fled to Germany in 2023 due to Russia’s war and were playing for the ART Giants basketball team in Dusseldorf when they were killed.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 8
Russian forces attacked the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring a 21-year-old man and damaging multiple civilian structures including homes, a high school, a shop, and a gas station.
Russian forces struck Pokrovsk town in Donetsk Oblast, killing one person and wounding another, while additional attacks on the village of Shevchenko injured two more people.
A Russian multiple-launch rocket attack on Prystyn village near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast wounded an 80-year-old woman.
Russian forces attacked Kherson Oblast, injuring three people and damaging a multi-story building, 12 houses, and other structures.
Russian forces struck an emergency facility infrastructure in Rivne Oblast with no reported casualties.
A Russian drone strike on Ternopil damaged an energy infrastructure site, causing a fire and power outages for some residents but no casualties.
The aftermath of Russian attacks against the Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is ramping up its domestic missile production, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced following a meeting about weapons manufacturing contracts. The production includes various drones and missiles, with Ukraine having produced its first 100 missiles since Russia’s 2022 invasion, including a domestic ballistic missile and the Palianytsia missile-drone.
Ukraine’s Allies
U.S. and Ukraine signed a $825 million energy cooperation agreement in Brussels with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Secretary of State Antony Blinken finalizing the deal during a NATO meeting. The memorandum aims to rebuild Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which has faced repeated Russian attacks. The agreement comes as Russia escalates its assaults, recently launching nearly 100 drones and 90 missiles overnight on November 28, forcing Ukraine to implement emergency blackouts.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the importance of continued support for Ukraine to strengthen its position for future negotiations with Russia. Speaking at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in London, Starmer warned that unchecked Russian advances would increase threats to European security and Putin’s control over grain prices and energy sources. As Trump’s inauguration approaches, the U.K. and France are considering options to support Ukraine, including potentially deploying troops to monitor a ceasefire. The U.K. has backed its commitment with actions, providing Storm Shadow cruise missiles which Ukraine recently used to strike Russian targets in the Bryansk region, alongside U.S.-made ATACMS missiles.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russia has orchestrated a systematic program of forced child deportation and adoption from Ukraine, according to a new Yale School of Public Health study. Nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children have been taken from occupied territories to Russia or Russian-controlled areas since February 2022. The study found that 314 children from Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts were subjected to forced Russification and adoption, with over 60 being naturalized as Russian citizens. Children were transported to at least 21 Russian regions under Putin’s direct orders, where they underwent pro-Russian re-education before placement with Russian families.
Russia News
New Western sanctions on 50 Russian banks have forced Russian importers to find alternative ways to pay Chinese sellers, according to the Moscow Times. Russian businesses now must use intermediaries who charge a 3% commission to convert rubles for Chinese payments, while some resort to smuggling for sanctioned goods. The situation highlights growing difficulties in Russia-China financial transactions under U.S. scrutiny, particularly significant as evidence shows Chinese parts in Russian military equipment, including drones. The EU has reportedly found evidence of China producing attack drones for Russia, while a weak ruble has further complicated trade between the two countries.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1670 747370 |
Tanks +7 9493 |
Artillery +26 21002 |
Arm. VEH +31 19450 |
Aircraft  369 |
Heli 329 |
Ships 28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A Russian military blogger reported that Russian military leaders are allegedly forcing mobilized soldiers to sign military service contracts, sending those who refuse into combat roles in Ukraine. While praising Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and claiming he opposes these practices, the blogger criticized other Ministry of Defense officials. The Ministry has not officially responded to these allegations.
The Kremlin is expanding efforts to integrate Ukraine war veterans into government positions through the “Time of Heroes” program. President Putin met with program participants in Moscow to discuss recruitment. Due to high demand, regional authorities have been instructed to create similar programs, with Samara Oblast already launching a “School of Heroes” initiative to help veterans pursue higher education.
Russia’s Allies
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico criticized EU leadership for making supportive statements about Ukraine without full EU consensus. Fico objected to comments made by EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, and European Council president Antonio Costa during their Kyiv visit, where they promised continued economic and military support to Ukraine, including 4.2 billion euros in budget support. Since taking office in September 2023, Fico has halted Slovak military aid to Ukraine, seeks to normalize relations with Russia, and has accepted an invitation to attend Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations in May.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian officials are attempting to manipulate public perception regarding prisoner-of-war (POW) exchanges with Ukraine, with Russia’s Foreign Ministry claiming readiness to swap 630 Ukrainian POWs while Ukrainian officials report that Russia hasn’t made any official exchange requests and that the published list contains errors, including seven already-exchanged soldiers and 14 civilians. Ukraine’s POW Coordination Secretary, Brigadier General Dmytro Usov, says Russia is only interested in exchanging prisoners captured in Kursk Oblast and is trying to discredit Ukraine’s government as part of a broader strategy to portray Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, despite Russia’s own history of refusing POW exchanges before Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk offensive, while Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets rejected Russian claims that Kyiv refused to accept 600 Ukrainian POWs, stating on December 2 that Ukraine is ready to repatriate all captives.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com