Summary of the Day:
Russian forces continue to suffer staggering losses in western Donetsk Oblast, setting a grim record in November with 1,523 daily casualties, reaching over 2,000 casualties in a single day on November 28. Despite these heavy losses, Russian forces have made limited advances in the Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar directions, while Ukrainian forces have successfully pushed forward in Kursk and northern Kharkiv oblasts.
Russia’s military faces a deepening manpower crisis, with current recruitment rates of 25,000-30,000 soldiers per month falling significantly short of combat losses. In a notable shift, Russian forces have begun recruiting women for combat and logistics roles to address these shortages, signaling increasing desperation to maintain troop levels.
Diplomatic tensions escalated as Russian General Gerasimov undermined the Kremlin’s official narrative about its November 21 Oreshnik missile strike, revealing to US officials that the strike had been planned before the US decision to allow Ukraine’s ATACMS strikes into Russia. Meanwhile, Russia formalized a comprehensive strategic partnership with North Korea on December 4, deepening military cooperation between the two nations.
Internal divisions within Russian leadership emerged as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov publicly challenged senior Russian security officials over their treatment of minorities, highlighting growing tensions in Putin’s government over its approach to ethnic and religious diversity within Russia.
Picture of the Day:
Relatives and friends pay their respect next to the coffin containing the body of Yevhenii Matvieiev, mayor of the town of Dniprorudne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, during his funeral ceremony. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Matvieiev died while tortured in Russian captivity. (Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The head of U.K.’s armed forces, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, warns of an emerging “third nuclear age” characterized by authoritarian states challenging global stability. In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute, he highlighted growing concerns about Russia’s nuclear threats and its strengthening alliances with North Korea and Iran, evidenced by North Korean troops near Ukraine and Iranian-supplied drones in Russian forces. Radakin described a world dividing into three groups: authoritarian challengers (Russia, Iran, China, North Korea), responsible nations, and neutral countries seeking advantage between the two. While he assured that NATO’s nuclear deterrence remains effective against direct Russian aggression, he emphasized the need to strengthen these defenses in response to increasing global nuclear threats and the erosion of traditional security frameworks. This realignment poses significant challenges to international peace and security structures established after World War II.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has imposed sanctions on 19 Georgian government officials, including oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili and Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, accusing them of aligning with Russia. The sanctions follow widespread protests in Tbilisi over Kobakhidze’s announcement that Georgia’s EU accession would be delayed until 2028, leading to police crackdowns and numerous arrests. The Baltic states have already banned these officials’ entry, and the U.S. is considering additional sanctions. This development highlights growing concerns about Georgia potentially shifting toward Russia’s sphere of influence, threatening regional stability and the unity of former Soviet states seeking Western alignment. Zelensky emphasized the importance of maintaining solidarity among Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova against Moscow’s influence, viewing it as crucial for regional peace and democracy.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned of increased Russian and Chinese naval activity in the Baltic Sea, following a recent incident where a Russian warship fired warning shots at a German military helicopter. The situation is complicated by an investigation into damaged communication cables potentially involving a Chinese cargo ship, Yi Peng 3. Pistorius compared Russia’s provocative behavior, including unidentified fighter jet flights over Baltic states, to Cold War tactics. This escalation of military presence in the Baltic Sea raises concerns about regional stability, particularly as Russia and China appear to be using the area to circumvent sanctions. These developments threaten peace in Northern Europe and challenge NATO’s security framework during the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Romanian intelligence agencies have uncovered a sophisticated Russian-backed social media campaign supporting pro-Russian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu, who unexpectedly gained 23% of the vote on November 24. The operation, involving coordinated TikTok activity and cyber-attacks, mirrors tactics used before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Georgescu, known for his pro-Putin stance and criticism of NATO and Ukraine aid, will face pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi in a December 8 runoff. The campaign spent $381,000 promoting Georgescu through 25,000 TikTok accounts and attempted 85,000 cyberattacks on election systems. This interference in Romania’s democratic process represents another challenge to European stability and NATO unity, potentially threatening regional peace during the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
The formalization of a strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea on December 4 marks a significant shift in global security dynamics. While the agreement claims to promote “international strategic stability” and a “fair world order,” it actually represents an escalation in military cooperation between the two nations. This partnership has already evolved from initial ammunition sales to North Korea deploying over 10,000 soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. The deepening alliance between these two nuclear-armed nations could destabilize international peace efforts and complicate global diplomatic relations, particularly given both countries’ tense relationships with Western nations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko are deepening their countries’ integration through the Union State agreement. The leaders will meet December 6 in Minsk to discuss a shared electricity market, while also advancing security and oil export agreements. This growing alliance between Russia and Belarus could further destabilize regional security and complicate peace efforts in Eastern Europe.
The Path to Peace
Ukraine’s Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak stated that Russia shows no willingness to engage in meaningful peace talks, instead relying on ultimatums. During an interview with The Telegraph, Yermak emphasized the ongoing intensity of the war and Ukraine’s urgent need for military support. A Ukrainian delegation, including Yermak, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, met with Trump’s top advisers in Washington. Separately, President Zelensky stressed that NATO membership for Ukraine-controlled territories is crucial for ending the war’s active phase, emphasizing that any NATO invitation should recognize Ukraine’s international borders.
At the OSCE meeting in Malta, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha rejected any potential agreements like the Yalta or Minsk deals, which he says would only legitimize Russian aggression. Sybiha cited the mass killings in Bucha, Mariupol, and Izium as evidence of what Russian “peace” truly means, including the forced assimilation of Ukrainian children. He and several other diplomats walked out in protest when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived at the meeting, with Sybiha calling him a war criminal. The statement comes as U.S. President-elect Trump has promised to swiftly end the war through negotiations.
German opposition leader Friedrich Merz has dismissed discussions about deploying German troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine as premature, responding to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s comments that such deployment shouldn’t be ruled out. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also rejected immediate troop deployment but avoided commenting on future peacekeeping scenarios. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said any future deployment would depend on specific mandate conditions and warring parties’ acceptance. These discussions emerge amid reports of UK and France considering peacekeeping roles and alleged plans by Trump’s team for European troops in post-war Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made advances in the Kursk Oblast, specifically into central Darino near Korenevo, as shown in footage from December 4. While Russian sources claimed advances near Malaya Loknya and reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Novoivanovka and Nikolayevo-Darino, Russian claims of advances north of Sudzha remain unconfirmed.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces regained positions along Druzhby Street in southwestern Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City, while Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vysoka Yaruha, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances near Kruhlyakivka, Kopanky, Zeleny Hai, and Lozova, Ukrainian forces reportedly captured Novomlynsk. Russian forces continued assaults near multiple settlements including Synkivka, Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Pershotravneve, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Zarichne, and Torske.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian sources indicate that combat operations continued near Siversk with Ukrainian forces reportedly launching counterattacks in the area, particularly near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk. Russian volunteer forces, specifically the “Nevsky” Brigade, were reported to be conducting artillery operations near Vasyukivka, southwest of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued attacking near Chasiv Yar with unconfirmed claims that their 98th Airborne Division advanced into several areas including the northeastern outskirts, central Refractory Plant, and eastern Novyi Microraion. A Ukrainian officer reported that Russian forces are using small infantry groups to test Ukrainian defenses and attempt to disrupt supply lines in Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces made small advances in central Toretsk, capturing parts of Svitla Street and the Tsentralna Mine area. They reportedly entered several neighborhoods and nearby Leonidivka. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are conducting continuous infantry attacks near Toretsk, preceded by artillery strikes, but are suffering heavy casualties estimated at one battalion per week.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued attacks near Pokrovsk claiming advances near Novopustynka, Novotroitske, and Shevchenko. A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that Russian forces now conduct 40-50 daily attacks with smaller groups of about 10 soldiers, a change from their previous tactics of using larger 50-person groups.
Kurakhove
Russian forces made small advances near Kurakhove, particularly in southern Sontsivka. They reportedly disrupted the H-15 highway between Kurakhove and Kostiantynopil, while continuing attacks on multiple settlements including Zorya, Novodmytrivka, Berestky, Dachne, and Dalne.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced northwest of Vuhledar capturing Romanivka with their 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment. They also moved into northern Uspenivka and reportedly took Hannivka. These advances suggest Russian forces are successfully flanking Ukrainian positions along the Antonivka-Uspenivka-Sukhi Yaly line, though they haven’t yet crossed the Sukhi Yaly River.
Russian sources claim their forces advanced near Vuhledar, reaching Veselyi Hai and establishing positions in Kostiantynopolske and Sukhy Yaly, though these claims are unconfirmed. They report advances of up to 750 meters in Kostiantynopolske and 650 meters in southern Sukhy Yaly, while continuing attacks near several settlements including Yelyzavetivka, Romanivka, Hannivka, and Rozlyv. Russian artillery reportedly struck a bridge near Yantarne.
Ukrainian troops have recaptured the village of Novyi Komar in Donetsk Oblast from Russian forces, military spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn announced. The village is located 50 kilometers west of Russian-occupied Vuhledar.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued attacks near Velyka Novosilka claiming advances south of the settlement along the Mokri Yaly River. While Russian sources claim control of Blahodatne, there are conflicting reports about the situation. Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed Russians out of Novyi Komar, though Russian sources dispute this. Fighting continues across multiple settlements including Rozdolne, Makarivka, Novodarivka, and Zelene Pole, with various Russian military units, including special forces and naval infantry, operating in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacking near Robotyne and Novodanylivka without gaining ground. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces in the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv areas are rotating troops, conducting training, and gathering intelligence in preparation for future attacks.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces persist in attacking the Dnipro area, particularly focusing on islands in the Dnipro River Delta, where daily battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces, specifically Ukraine’s 61st Marine Brigade, involve artillery and drone warfare, with control of these islands being strategically crucial as it could enable Russia to intensify attacks on Kherson city; Mykolaiv Governor Vitaly Kim has indicated Ukrainian forces are well-prepared for potential Russian west bank crossings, while Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin has warned of Russia amassing 300 boats and potentially planning a new offensive, with Russian forces reportedly training assault groups in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts to practice water crossings, presenting an ongoing threat to Kherson and surrounding areas despite Ukrainian forces maintaining defensive positions.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a widespread aerial attack using two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Rostov Oblast and 44 Shahed drones from Oryol and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 30 drones across multiple regions including Kyiv and Kharkiv, while 12 drones were disrupted by electronic warfare. Drone debris damaged power lines and homes in Kyiv Oblast, and Russian forces struck residential buildings in Hlukhiv, Sumy Oblast with guided bombs.
Ukrainian military media ArmyInform reports that Ukrainian forces used F-16 fighter jets three times to defend against Russian air and missile strikes – once in August and twice in November 2024.
Marking the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, President Zelensky stated that the 1994 agreement, which saw Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the UK, Russia, and the US, has never been effective. The agreement required these nations to respect Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty while refraining from using weapons or economic pressure against it. Kyiv School of Economics expert Anton Liagusha noted that Ukraine was pressured into signing the agreement, with Russia portraying Ukraine as an unstable state unfit for nuclear weapons. However, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson recently confirmed the country remains committed to nuclear non-proliferation despite the agreement’s failure.
A joint report by Physicians for Human Rights and Truth Hounds reveals that Russian forces have damaged or destroyed about 780 Ukrainian hospitals and clinics and killed 244 healthcare workers since February 2022. The strikes on medical facilities intensified in October 2024, with nearly one-third of attacks directly targeting healthcare facilities. The report shows that 92% of Ukrainian healthcare workers experienced power outages due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, with 26% facing daily blackouts.
A recent phone call on November 27 between Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov and US Joint Chiefs Chairman Charles Q. Brown Jr. contradicted Russia’s public narrative about its November 21 Oreshnik missile strike against Dnipro, Ukraine, as while President Putin claimed the strike was retaliatory for US allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia, Gerasimov admitted to Brown that Russia had planned the Oreshnik launch well before this US decision, undermining the Kremlin’s attempt to portray the missile strike as a defensive reaction to Western military support for Ukraine, with Russian sources indicating the Dnipro strike was primarily intended as a show of force rather than an escalation and suggesting Putin’s subsequent threats to target Kyiv were meant to intimidate rather than signal immediate action.
Ukrainian authorities announced that Russian owners of the Pin-Up online casino are suspected of gathering sensitive data about Ukrainian military personnel and their locations. The State Bureau of Investigation reports the casino operators, based in occupied Luhansk Oblast, have been funding Russia’s war effort and supporting Russian veterans. Following seizure by a Kyiv court, Hr 2.6 billion ($62.5 million) of the company’s assets were converted to military bonds. The case emerged amid growing concerns about gambling’s impact on soldiers, leading to President Zelensky’s April 2024 decree banning military personnel from online gambling during martial law.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine will receive over 30,000 DeepStrike attack drones in 2025, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced. These next-generation drones can operate autonomously at long distances with high targeting accuracy. This is part of Ukraine’s plan to boost domestic defense production, with a goal of producing 1.5 million drones by the end of 2024. Some of the DeepStrike production is being funded by international partners investing in Ukraine’s defense industry.
Ukraine’s Allies
At the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) ministerial meeting, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized America’s continued support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. Blinken condemned Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s interference in Moldova and Georgia’s elections, particularly criticizing the Georgian Dream party’s decision to suspend EU accession efforts. He highlighted Russia’s escalating military threats, including nuclear rhetoric and attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, dismissing Russian claims about security concerns and describing Putin’s actions as an “imperial project to erase Ukraine.”
The Netherlands will provide $23 million in additional support for Ukraine’s air defense and cyber capabilities, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp announced.
The European Union is prepared to increase its contribution to Ukraine’s $50 billion multilateral loan agreement if the U.S. withdraws from the deal, Polish Deputy Finance Minister Pawel Karbownik announced. The G7 loan, agreed upon in October, would be repaid using interest from frozen Russian assets. While the EU and U.S. were each to contribute $20 billion, Brussels has now agreed to potentially raise its contribution to 35 billion euros, depending on U.S. involvement. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated the loan should be delivered within weeks.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
President Zelensky announced that six Ukrainian mayors and community leaders remain in Russian captivity, including the death of Dniprorudne mayor Yevhenii Matvieiev, who was reportedly tortured to death after his capture in March 2022. Over 19,500 Ukrainian children are currently held by Russia, with only 3,767 freed so far. At least 177 Ukrainian prisoners have died in Russian captivity since the full-scale invasion began. Zelensky criticized the international community’s fading attention to these war crimes and the lack of action to address the fate of Ukrainians in occupied territories.
Russia has forced approximately 5,500 residents of occupied Crimea into military service in 2024, bringing the total to nearly 50,000 people conscripted since Russia’s 2014 occupation, according to a December 4 report from Ukraine’s Presidential Mission in Crimea. Those who refuse face criminal charges, with 553 cases opened against residents avoiding service. The Russian authorities have particularly targeted Crimean Tatars, with 132 of the 218 people currently detained being from this indigenous group. Most detainees are activists, journalists, and human rights defenders who support Ukraine.
Russia News
Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) conducted a successful cyberattack on Russia’s Gazprombank disrupting its online and mobile banking services. The distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack affected hundreds of thousands of Russians’ ability to make payments and transfers. The bank, which serves 3 million individuals and 45,000 businesses, was recently sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in November.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is publicly challenging top Russian security officials over their treatment of migrants and ethnic minorities, revealing potential divisions within Putin’s government. Kadyrov accused Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin and Internal Affairs Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev of failing to protect minorities and claimed Kolokoltsev ordered law enforcement to drive foreigners out of Russia. This conflict highlights growing tensions between Putin’s vision of Russia as an inclusive, multicultural state and some officials’ push for a more ethnically restrictive nationalism. The dispute stems from a case involving a Chechen minor in Moscow and follows earlier clashes between these leaders over religious extremism issues.
A Finnish court began trial for Russian neo-Nazi leader Yan Petrovsky, accused of war crimes in eastern Ukraine during 2014-2015. As co-leader of the Rusich paramilitary unit, Petrovsky allegedly led an ambush that killed 22 Ukrainian soldiers and wounded 4 others after deceiving them with a Ukrainian flag. Arrested in July 2023 while using a false identity, he faces five war crimes charges, with prosecutors seeking life imprisonment. While Ukraine requested his extradition, Finland denied it due to concerns about Ukrainian prison conditions.
The price of coffins in Russia has increased by 74% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, rising from 4,437 rubles ($44) in January 2022 to 7,711 rubles ($76) in October 2024. Some regions saw increases exceeding 100%, including Sakhalin (181%), Omsk Oblast (162%), Tambov Oblast (104%), and Smolensk Oblast (103%).
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Russian forces are experiencing record-high casualties in their recent military operations. In November 2024 alone, Russia lost an average of 1,523 troops per day, reaching a single-day high of over 2,000 casualties on November 28. Over a three-month period (September-November 2024), Russian forces suffered approximately 125,800 casualties while gaining only 2,356 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast. This amounts to about 53 Russian casualties for each square kilometer gained, reflecting a significant human cost for relatively modest territorial advances in western Donetsk Oblast. These losses are likely to impact both Russia’s ongoing war effort and its economy.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Tsivilyova revealed that 48,000 families have submitted DNA samples to help locate missing Russian soldiers in Ukraine. The disclosure came during a November 26 State Duma roundtable, drawing immediate concern from defense committee head Andrei Kartapolov who warned against sharing such sensitive information publicly. Tsivilyova, who is President Putin’s cousin, emphasized that this number represents appeals rather than confirmed missing soldiers. Ukraine’s Armed Forces estimate total Russian losses at 750,610 troops since the February 2022 invasion began.
Troops +1660
750610 |
Tanks +8
9514 |
Artillery +20
21043 |
Arm. VEH +46
19518 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia’s military recruitment has declined to 500-600 new contracts per day in late 2024, potentially insufficient to replace daily battlefield losses of 600-750 soldiers according to Meduza’s analysis of Russia’s federal budget, and while Russia currently recruits between 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers monthly, military experts suggest they need at least 50,000 monthly recruits to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast at their current casualty rate; despite increasing sign-on bonuses from 195,000 rubles ($1,900) to 400,000 rubles ($3,900) in August, third-quarter recruitment dropped to an estimated 49,000-82,000 contracts, down from 93,000 in the previous quarter, creating a critical dilemma between sending workers to Ukraine or keeping them in the domestic economy which is already facing labor shortages and inflation, leading Russia to supplement its forces by recruiting from migrant workers, poorer regions, and recently adding 10,000-12,000 North Korean troops, while both sides face significant personnel challenges with Ukraine reporting understaffed frontline units, making Western military support, particularly from the US, crucial for Ukraine to continue defending against Russian advances and maintaining pressure on Russian forces in 2025.
Russian forces are expanding their recruitment to include women in both combat and support roles, according to Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Nazar Voloshyn. Speaking on December 5, Voloshyn noted that while Russian forces typically assign women to communications and support positions, Ukrainian forces have observed women serving in Russian “Storm” assault units, which are made up of penal recruits.
Russian forces reportedly plan to deploy specialized drones equipped with fiber-optic cables up to 20 kilometers long to strike deep into Ukrainian territory. A Ukrainian soldier reports these drones are immune to electronic warfare interference. Russian forces have already been spotted using similar drones with 10-kilometer cables in Kursk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia regions.
Russia’s Allies
North Korea has sent 10,000-12,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where they serve as a “second echelon” force under Russia’s 11th Airborne Assault Brigade, according to Ukraine’s National Resistance Center. President Zelensky confirmed that some North Korean soldiers have been killed in the war, while Ukrainian military intelligence reports that 2,000 troops have been assigned to Russian Marine and airborne units. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that North Korean forces are actively supporting Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, following a strategic partnership agreement signed between Moscow and Pyongyang in June.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com