Summary of the Day:
Russian forces conducted their most significant attack against Ukraine since the start of the war launching extensive missile and drone strikes primarily targeting energy infrastructure. This campaign appears to be part of a broader Russian strategy to pressure Ukraine and the West during Winter 2024-2025 by threatening critical civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces have recently demonstrated success in targeting Russian military capabilities, with strikes against airfields and air defense systems appearing to reduce Russian air operations and glide bomb attacks. Meanwhile, Russian forces achieved territorial advances near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar, though the specific extent of these gains remains unclear.
In developments related to Russia’s broader military posture, Moscow is currently evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while engaging in negotiations about its long-term military presence in the country. The status of Russia’s helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria remains uncertain amid these changes.
The United States continues to provide support to Ukraine, with the Department of Defense announcing a new $500 million military aid package on December 12. On the Russian domestic front, President Vladimir Putin awarded Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov with the Hero of Russia award, while questions have emerged about the status of Major General Dmitry Ovcharov’s command of the 3rd Combined Arms Army following claims of his removal.
Picture of the Day:
The evacuation group ‘White Angels’ transports an elderly woman from the city of Pokrovsk, amidst the Russia-Ukraine war in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Diego Herrera Carcedo / Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russia is undergoing significant changes to its military presence in Syria, with evidence of withdrawals from multiple key locations including Hmeimim Air Base, the Port of Tartus, and the Qamishli helicopter base in northeastern Syria. Satellite imagery reveals preparations for equipment removal, including the dismantling of Ka-52 helicopters and S-400 air defense systems, while military convoys traverse the country and transport aircraft prepare for equipment relocation. While Russia has maintained a presence in Syria since 2015 supporting Bashar al-Assad, it currently operates under “temporary security guarantees” and is negotiating with local Syrian authorities, including Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), about maintaining its bases.
The situation remains fluid and complex, particularly regarding the Qamishli base where, despite a Kurdish journalist reporting Russian withdrawal on December 11, photos from December 12 showed continued Russian presence, and unlike other locations, there are no reports of negotiations with the controlling Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence has reported troop evacuations amid claims of a chaotic withdrawal process, though the naval base at Tartus shows minimal changes. This shifting military presence could significantly impact regional stability and the balance of power in the Middle East, potentially creating a power vacuum, though Russia could quickly reestablish its presence if permanent agreements are reached.
Moldova’s Parliament has declared a 60-day energy state of emergency starting December 16, responding to Ukraine’s planned halt of Russian gas transit by January 2025. This decision could significantly impact regional stability, particularly affecting gas supplies to Transnistria and electricity availability in Moldova. The situation highlights growing energy security concerns in Eastern Europe, as Ukraine moves to end its role as a transit country for Russian energy to Europe. The developments could further strain relations between Russia and neighboring countries, with potential implications for regional peace and stability, especially given Transnistria’s already complex political status.
The Path to Peace
President-elect Donald Trump met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on December 7, where he proposed European nations, rather than the United States, should be responsible for sending troops to support a Ukrainian ceasefire. Trump emphasized European leadership in deterring Russian aggression while maintaining his opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, suggesting Europe should pressure China to stop supporting Russia’s invasion. His incoming Ukraine peace envoy, Keith Kellogg, predicts the Russia-Ukraine war could be resolved within months after Trump’s January inauguration, with a peace plan that would freeze the front line, delay Ukraine’s NATO membership, and partially lift Russian sanctions while maintaining U.S. military aid and security guarantees to Ukraine.
Members of Trump’s incoming administration are coordinating with current White House officials, including discussions between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Mike Waltz, to prepare for potential Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations after his January inauguration. However, Ukraine’s Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak stated that Ukraine is not ready for negotiations with Russia due to insufficient Western support to negotiate from a position of strength. Yermak rejected any new Minsk or Normandy format agreements, emphasizing Ukraine’s need for more weapons, NATO membership clarity, and security guarantees. Zelensky also emphasized that peace requires more than just a ceasefire agreement.
Macron plans to discuss deploying European troops to Ukraine at the December 18-19 EU leaders’ summit, contingent on a future ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with Zelensky expected to attend the Brussels summit on December 19. Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto became the first country representative to publicly support Macron’s proposal for an international peacekeeping force, though Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani called such discussions premature while the war continues. The UK and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have declined participation, with Tusk dismissing the peacekeeping proposal and stating no such plan exists for Poland, while Germany remains undecided. While Zelensky might consider foreign peacekeepers, he wants a clear NATO membership timeline first.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian attacks on Russian military airfields and air defense systems appear to be reducing Russian air operations and glide bomb strikes. Russian forces launched 431 glide bombs in early December 2024, a significant decrease from November when they launched over 3,300 bombs. At the current rate, December’s total glide bomb launches are expected to be only one-third of November’s numbers.
According to Russian opposition news outlet Agentstvo, Russian glide bomb attacks decreased significantly after Ukraine began using Western-provided long-range weapons against targets in Russia in mid-November 2024. The decline became noticeable after Ukraine’s first ATACMS strike on November 18-19 and a Storm Shadow strike on November 19-20. Since November 22, Russian forces have been launching fewer than 100 glide bombs per day.
The threat of Ukrainian ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes is forcing Russian aircraft to operate from bases deeper inside Russia, making it harder for them to conduct glide bomb attacks on Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine’s campaign against Russian radar and air defense systems since late October 2024 has weakened Russia’s air defenses, particularly in occupied territories. This has made Russian pilots more hesitant to conduct bombing missions near the front lines and against Ukrainian cities.
According to Truth Hounds, a Ukrainian human rights organization, Ukraine has destroyed at least 33 Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft between February 2022 and September 2024. This represents nearly 30% of Russia’s estimated 112 Sukhoi fighters, potentially contributing to the recent decrease in Russian glide bomb attacks, though the exact timing of these losses relative to the recent decline in attacks is unclear.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast launching attacks near several settlements including Korenevo, Sudzha, and along the Psel River. While Russian sources claimed advances near Nikolayevo-Darino, in forested areas north of Martynovka, and near Kurilovka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Russian forces also conducted assaults near Novoivanovka, Sverdlikovo, and Guevo, though no confirmed territorial changes were reported.
North Korean special forces reportedly participated in the capture of Plekhovo in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on December 6, according to Russian military bloggers. The reports claim North Korean troops advanced two kilometers through minefields to seize the settlement, though there are conflicting accounts about whether this was an independent North Korean operation or a joint effort with Russian forces. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence has reported that North Korean special operations brigades in Kursk Oblast have been placed under Russian command, specifically under motorized rifle, naval infantry, and airborne units. However, there is no independent confirmation of North Korean combat participation in Kursk Oblast.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked positions north of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke and Lyptsi, and northeast of the city near Vovchansk and Starytsya but did not make any advances. Russian sources claim they repelled a Ukrainian counterattack near Lyptsi.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, launching assaults near Dvorichna, Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, and throughout the Svatove and Kreminna areas without confirmed advances, while reportedly gathering troops near Lyman for increased infantry attacks in the coming weeks, currently conducting small probing missions with 2-4 soldiers, with Russian special forces operating in the Serebryanske forest area, though Ukrainian forces have achieved success near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast by destroying two Russian bridgeheads at the Oskil River.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but did not achieve any confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Chasiv Yar and surrounding areas, including operations near Hryhorivka to the north and towards Stupochky and Bila Hora to the south. Fighting was reported at the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar, though Russian forces made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reported repelling Russian infantry groups using minefields, while noting that Russian forces maintain sufficient artillery support for their assaults.
Toretsk
Russian forces launched attacks near Toretsk and in the area of Dyliivka to the north but made no confirmed advances in either location.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces have made significant advances near Pokrovsk, with confirmed movement into western Pushkine and southern Lysivka, while conducting operations across multiple settlements including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Novyi Trud, Zelene, and Pishchane. While Russian sources claimed to be within 1 kilometer of Pishchane and 1.6 kilometers from Pokrovsk, verified footage shows they are about 1.8 kilometers from Pishchane and 3.8 kilometers from Pokrovsk, with Estonian intelligence confirming Russian forces are within four kilometers of Pokrovsk after capturing the village of Shevchenko while also pressing toward Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast.
Despite suffering approximately 3,000 casualties over two weeks, this advance represents Russia’s fastest pace of territorial gains since 2022, following their recent capture of another key hub, Vuhledar, in October, with Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi describing the fighting as “extremely fierce” and acknowledging Russian forces’ superior manpower, noting they have changed tactics to outflank Ukrainian positions rather than engage defensive lines directly, though Ukrainian officials denied reports of Russian reconnaissance groups in Pokrovsk itself, which remains significant as the last major city under Ukrainian control in central Donetsk region.
Kurakhove
Russian forces continued attacks near Kurakhove without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reported repelling a large, mechanized assault on Kurakhove’s flank. Russian forces are using varied tactics, attacking with armored columns in some areas and small groups using motorcycles and ATVs in others, often during foggy conditions. Russian forces conducted assaults near several settlements including Zorya, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachne, and Dalne.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced into central Uspenivka and Hannivka northwest of Vuhledar, likely securing positions in and around Romanivka, Veselyi Hai, Trudove, and the surrounding area, while also conducting attacks near Kostiantynopolske and Sukhyi Yaly, with Russian forces reportedly gaining control of key routes between Uspenivka and Hannivka that could allow them to push westward from Kurakhove towards Dachne and from Uspenivka towards Zelenivka, creating a risk of encirclement for Ukrainian units defending in the area, though while Russian sources claim to have already encircled Ukrainian forces, Ukrainian officials have denied these claims.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued attacks near Velyka Novosilka without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed advances southeast and southwest of Velyka Novosilka towards Storozheve and Neskuchne, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are attacking in small groups with air and armored support, suffering significant losses. Russian forces also conducted operations near Rozdolne, Neskuchne, and Novodarivka, and reportedly destroyed a bridge over the Mokry Yaly River near Novoocheretuvate.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces reported no ground combat near Hulyaipole in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. However, Ukrainian Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated that Russian forces are rotating troops and planning future infantry attacks in the area. Russian drone operators are active in the nearby Polohy region.
Russian forces launched attacks near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, without gaining ground. Ukrainian Colonel Voloshyn reported that Russian forces are attacking near Orikhiv, using armored vehicles and drones dropping toxic chemicals. Russian “Troyan” drone operators are active southeast of Kamyanske.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited attacks along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast but failed to gain any territory.
Ukraine News
Russian forces conducted their most extensive missile and drone attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, launching 94 missiles and 193 drones, with Ukrainian forces successfully intercepting 80-81 cruise missiles (including 11 shot down by F-16s), one ballistic missile, and 80 drones, while 105 drones were neutralized by Ukrainian countermeasures and six drones veered off course into Russian and Belarusian airspace. The assault, which marked the 12th mass attack on Ukraine’s energy sector this year, severely damaged DTEK’s thermal power plants and particularly impacted Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, which experienced its largest attack of the war, while also causing widespread power outages in Odesa, Lviv, and Ternopil Oblasts, with half of Ternopil’s residents losing power due to emergency shutdowns.
During the assault, which President Zelensky called one of the largest strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid and noted included missiles reportedly supplied by North Korea, European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius took shelter in Kyiv alongside EU Ambassador Katarina Mathernova, while Poland scrambled fighter jets and heightened its air defense systems in response to the attacks targeting both energy and transportation networks.
Russian strikes caused significant damage to Ukraine’s power infrastructure, particularly affecting thermal power plants operated by DTEK. The attacks targeted critical facilities across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Ternopil. As a result, much of Ukraine experienced rolling blackouts. The strikes also impacted nuclear power generation, with five of Ukraine’s nine nuclear reactors reducing their output, though three have since returned to full capacity.
Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are part of a larger winter strategy, like previous campaigns in 2022 and 2023. While Russia claimed the December 12-13 strikes were retaliation for a Ukrainian ATACMS attack on Taganrog in Rostov Oblast, analysts believe these strikes were pre-planned. The Russian messaging appears designed to both satisfy domestic demands for retaliation and influence Western decisions about providing weapons to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Allies
The US Department of Defense announced a new $500 million military aid package for Ukraine on December 12. The package includes a wide range of equipment including HIMARS ammunition, artillery rounds, anti-drone systems, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons. A senior Biden administration official reported that the US plans to deliver hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets, and hundreds of armored vehicles to Ukraine between mid-December 2024 and mid-January 2025. This sustained assistance is expected to help Ukraine maintain its current operations, which are putting significant pressure on Russia’s military capabilities and economy.
Russia may launch another Oreshnik ballistic missile at Ukraine this weekend, according to a U.S. National Security Council source cited by the Financial Times. Russia previously fired an Oreshnik without a nuclear warhead at Dnipro on November 21. The missile is believed to be a modified version of the RS-26 Rubezh, a nuclear-capable weapon with a 5,800-kilometer range. U.S. officials suggest Russia is using these launches to intimidate Ukraine and its allies, though they note it does not change battlefield dynamics.
The European Union plans to implement its first-ever sanctions targeting Russian disinformation efforts, affecting over a dozen individuals and three entities, including Russian intelligence officers and media figures. The EU will also sanction approximately 24 Belarusian individuals linked to human rights violations or President Lukashenko’s regime. This comes alongside the EU’s 15th sanctions package against Russia, which targets its fleet of tankers used to circumvent oil export restrictions. The measures aim to maintain pressure on Russia and counter its global destabilization efforts.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian security forces detained and beat two railway foremen in Simferopol, Crimea, accusing them of collaborating with Ukrainian forces, according to the partisan movement Atesh. The workers were placed in Detention Center No. 2. The partisans report that such detentions are becoming more frequent, with detainees typically released due to lack of evidence, suggesting the arrests are meant to intimidate locals and satisfy reporting requirements to Russian leadership.
Russia News
Russian military leadership has made several significant command changes. Major General Dmitry Ovcharov was reportedly removed from command of the 3rd Combined Arms Army, allegedly due to the loss of a T-90M tank to Ukrainian forces. This incident prompted Defense Minister Belousov to order an inspection of the Southern Military District. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed Lieutenant General Andrei Ivanayev’s appointment as commander of the Eastern Grouping of Forces. Ivanayev previously commanded the 20th Combined Arms Army operating in the Kupyansk-Svatove area.
Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the Hero of Russia medal to Viktor Zolotov, head of Rosgvardia, Russia’s internal security force. The award signals Zolotov’s growing influence in the Kremlin and trust in his leadership of the organization, which protects Putin’s regime and vital infrastructure.
Russia’s coal industry is facing severe financial difficulties, with companies reporting losses of 91 billion rubles ($873 million) in the first nine months of 2024. The crisis stems from lost Western markets and reduced demand from friendly nations, with exports falling 11.4% and shipments to China dropping 8%. In response, President Putin has called for urgent support measures, particularly for the Kuzbass region, which produces 60% of Russia’s hard coal. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is considering stricter oil sanctions against Russia before Trump’s inauguration, while sanctions have also impacted operations at the Ozernoye zinc mine.
The Netherlands’ Supreme Court rejected Russia’s appeal against a Hague Arbitration Court ruling that requires Moscow to pay $5 billion to Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz. The payment is compensation for assets Russia seized in Crimea following its 2014 occupation. This is the second Dutch court ruling confirming the original 2019 decision that Russia violated the bilateral investment agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1040
761160 |
Tanks +2
9539 |
Artillery +24
21102 |
Arm. Veh.
19675 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is creating a new military branch dedicated to drones and unmanned systems, following Ukraine’s establishment of a similar force earlier in 2024. The Russian Ministry of Defense aims to centralize control over various informal drone units that have operated independently since 2022. This reorganization, announced by President Putin in November 2024, is being led by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
The effort has faced challenges, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction where two prominent drone operators died in combat after their informal unit was disbanded. The Russian military established the “Rubikon” Center in August 2024 to oversee this reorganization, with new drone units already operating in Donetsk, Belgorod, and Kursk areas.
Military experts suggest this centralization could take 6-12 months to implement and may actually reduce combat effectiveness. The reorganization could disrupt the current flexibility of drone operations and slow down innovation. Unlike Ukraine’s approach of maintaining existing drone units while adding support structures, Russia is choosing to completely reorganize its drone forces, which could temporarily weaken their capabilities on the frontline.
The change represents a significant shift in Russian military structure, but its success remains uncertain due to manpower shortages and ongoing combat operations in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is expanding military influence in government through its “Time of Heroes” program, with plans to appoint war veteran Vladislav Golovin to lead Yunarmiya, a youth movement promoting military values in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The program is being used to test and train new government leaders, including former security personnel.
The Russian State Duma has proposed legislation to erase bad credit histories for citizens who sign military service contracts, as part of ongoing efforts to boost military recruitment through financial incentives.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com