Russian Forces Occupy City Hall in Kurakhove – Day 1025 (December 14, 2024)

Summary of the Day:

Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed that North Korean troops are now actively participating in Russian infantry assaults in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, marking a significant escalation in foreign involvement in the conflict. Russian forces have advanced near the settlements of Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Robotyne. Despite these Russian gains, Ukrainian forces have successfully reclaimed previously lost positions near Vovchansk.

In a strategic strike, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces and Armed Forces targeted the “Steel Horse” Oil Depot near Oryol City in Russia, successfully hitting a facility that supplies petroleum products to Russian military forces. Russian officials have confirmed both the strike and the resulting fire damage.

Meanwhile, Russia appears to be significantly reducing its military presence in Syria, with reports indicating large-scale evacuations of personnel and equipment from various bases including Damascus. Approximately 1,000 Russian troops have moved toward Port of Tartus and Hmeimim Air Base, while complex negotiations with Syrian opposition groups continue regarding Russia’s future military presence in the region.

In regional developments affecting the broader conflict, Georgia’s Georgian Dream party secured the presidency through a controversial election of Mikheil Kavelashvili, despite opposition boycotts and protests from current President Salome Zurabishvili, potentially impacting regional stability.

Picture of the Day:

an apartment building at night with smoke coming out of the windowLocal residents feed street cats in the city of Pokrovsk, eastern Donetsk region, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Roman Pilipey / AFP via Getty Images)

Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War

Russia’s military withdrawal from Syria marks a significant shift in global military dynamics, with approximately 1,000 Russian personnel evacuating Damascus toward the Port of Tartus and Hmeimim Air Base. The situation has become precarious, with hundreds of Russian soldiers near Homs Governorate unable to reach Hmeimim Air Base due to safety concerns, prompting Russia to deploy its Africa Corps to protect evacuating forces while Colonel Dmitry Motrenko seeks security guarantees for troops stranded at Tiyas Air Base. This reduction in military presence, confirmed by satellite imagery and attributed to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine weakening its ability to support Assad’s regime, threatens Russia’s strategic military foothold in the Near East, Mediterranean Sea, and Africa, particularly its key bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, Qamishli, and Kobani.

Simultaneously, Russia is navigating complex diplomatic challenges in Syria by attempting to establish relationships with opposition groups, including Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which controls the interim Syrian government. While Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed contacts with HTS on December 12, the future of Russia’s military presence remains uncertain, with opposition officials indicating that decisions about foreign military bases will need to be determined through a Syrian people’s referendum. This situation, highlighted by the U.K. Defense Ministry, could significantly impact regional stability and Russia’s reputation as a security partner while potentially creating a security vacuum in areas previously under Russian control.

In a move that could further destabilize Georgia’s political landscape, the Georgian Dream party successfully elected their candidate, Mikheil Kavelashvili, as Georgian President despite opposition boycotts and protests. Current President Salome Zurabishvili has challenged the legitimacy of both the election and the party’s parliamentary control. This political tension in Georgia, a strategically located country between Russia and NATO-allied Turkey, could have broader implications for regional stability and East-West relations.

Belarusian President Lukashenko met with Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said discussing economic cooperation. This meeting between a key Russian ally and a Middle Eastern state could affect regional diplomatic balances and international peace efforts.

The Path to Peace

Russia’s war in Ukraine appears to be entering a critical phase as Donald Trump’s election victory raises questions about future U.S. support for Ukraine. After significant Russian advances in 2024, four potential scenarios have emerged: a peace deal with strong security guarantees for Ukraine; a ceasefire without security guarantees; a compromised peace under Russian pressure; or continued Russian advancement without any peace agreement.

The battlefield situation has deteriorated for Ukraine, with Russia making territorial gains at the fastest pace since early 2022. Ukrainian President Zelensky has indicated willingness to freeze the conflict along current lines in exchange for NATO membership, but key allies like the U.S. and Germany have rejected this proposal. Meanwhile, Russia continues its advance in areas like southern Donetsk Oblast, while Putin demands Ukraine’s withdrawal from four annexed regions as a condition for peace.

European nations are considering increased involvement, including possible troop deployments after a ceasefire, with France and Poland discussing potential military presence in Ukraine. The outcome may depend on four key factors: Ukraine’s ability to stabilize its defense lines, Trump’s approach to negotiations with Putin, Russia’s willingness to stop fighting, and Europe’s commitment to securing Ukraine’s future.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Ukrainian Colonel Nazar Voloshyn reported that Ukrainian forces now hold an artillery advantage of up to three-to-one in some areas, a significant change from his December 10 statement when he said Russian forces had a three-to-one advantage. These comments likely refer to specific areas in eastern Ukraine where the Khortytsia Group of Forces operates.

Russian forces have used chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops over 4,800 times since the full-scale invasion began, according to Ukrainian Colonel Artem Vlasiuk. More than 2,000 Ukrainian service members have been hospitalized for chemical poisoning, with three deaths reported. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons confirmed that Russia has used riot control agents in Ukraine, including deploying gas grenades via drones into Ukrainian positions to force soldiers into vulnerable positions. While the use of K-51 tear gas grenades has decreased due to cold weather reducing their effectiveness, Russian forces continue to conceal their chemical weapons use during heavy artillery and rocket attacks, making investigation and documentation difficult.

Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), claimed Russian forces intercepted a Ukrainian missile attack on Donetsk City on December 13, though falling missile debris reportedly damaged apartments in the Kyivskyi district. This claim has not been independently verified.

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Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia

Russian forces made advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast with confirmed gains near Lyubimovka and Kurilovka. During an assault near Lyubimovka, Ukrainian forces destroyed six Russian armored vehicles. Russian forces are attacking in small groups of 10-12 soldiers, with reports of activity near Martynovka, Novoivanovka, and Darino, though some of these claims remain unconfirmed.

In a significant development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Russia has deployed North Korean soldiers in combat operations in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, where over 10,000 North Korean troops are now stationed. These forces have suffered considerable casualties while participating in infantry assaults, with Russian military bloggers confirming North Korean involvement in capturing the settlement of Plekhovo on December 6 and advancing near Russkoye Porechnoye, while additional combat activity has been observed near Kremyanoye. This deployment follows a defense treaty signed between Russia and North Korea in June, where North Korea provided Russia with over 100 ballistic missiles and 5 million artillery shells in exchange for economic support.

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) reported that North Korean soldiers accidentally killed eight members of Russia’s Chechen Akhmat unit in a friendly fire incident due to language barriers, with approximately 200 Russian and North Korean soldiers killed as of today. Special protocols are in place requiring Russian soldiers to undergo inspections and surrender electronic devices before entering areas where North Korean personnel are located. Russia has reportedly reclaimed 40% of the territory Ukraine captured during its August offensive in Kursk Oblast, marking the first major confirmation of North Korean forces conducting assault operations in Ukraine since Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov’s initial report in November.

Ukrainian drones struck the “Steel Horse” Oil Depot near Oryol City in Russia’s Oryol Oblast, causing a large fire, with Governor Andrey Klychkov reporting that 11 drones were shot down over the region while local residents’ videos showed a drone hitting a storage tank, causing an explosion. The facility, which supplies petroleum products to the Russian military, was hit in a joint operation by Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces and Armed Forces, with Russian officials confirming both the strike and the damage while Ukrainian forces continue to assess the full extent of the damage.

Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) reported two incidents in Russia’s Krasnodar region: an Su-30 aircraft was set on fire at a military airfield near Krymsk, and three locomotives were disabled near Krasnodar City.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Ukrainian forces made progress in northern Kharkiv Oblast, with confirmed advances in southern Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City. While this advance was only recently documented on December 1, it likely occurred several weeks earlier. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue offensive operations near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line with reported but unconfirmed advances near Lozova, northwest of Svatove. Russian forces have adjusted their tactics, now attacking in larger groups of 10-15 soldiers instead of smaller 2-3 person teams. Attacks were reported near multiple settlements including Kolisnykivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, Pershotravneve, Nadiya, Kopanky, Shyikivka, Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Terny, Torske, Zarichne, Hryhorivka, and Dibrova.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Siversk

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Siversk targeting Bilohorivka (northeast), Verkhnokamyanske (east), and the areas near Spirne and Vyimka (southeast), but made no confirmed advances.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces continued attacks on Chasiv Yar with unconfirmed claims of gains at the Refractory Plant in the town center and Ukrainian withdrawals from some positions. Russian forces are also active near Stupochky, south of Chasiv Yar. They have installed protective nets over the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar road to defend against Ukrainian drones.

Toretsk

Russian forces advanced in central Toretsk gaining ground at the Tsentralna Mine and the town’s market area, with further claimed progress along 3rd Travnevyi Lane toward mine number ten. Russian forces are also conducting assaults near Dyliivka (north) and Krymske (northeast), using basements and destroyed buildings to conceal troop concentrations from Ukrainian detection and artillery.

Pokrovsk

Russian forces have made significant advances in the Pokrovsk direction, with confirmed gains in western Shevchenko and southern Novotroitske, placing them less than 4 kilometers from Pokrovsk city, while additional unconfirmed advances were reported near Mykolaivka, Pishchane, Dachenske, and Novovasylivka. Russian forces attacked multiple settlements including Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, and Pushkine, using less trained soldiers for initial assaults followed by professional troops and relying heavily on drones, artillery, and infantry attacks due to limited armored vehicle availability, while Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks near Novotroitske and Shevchenko. Pokrovsk, now home to 11,000 of its pre-war population of 60,000, is the last stronghold preventing Russian forces from advancing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with the city lacking gas, heating, and most utilities due to Russian shelling, evacuation trains canceled since September, and military experts suggesting it could face the same fate as Avdiivka, which fell to Russian forces in February 2024.

Kurakhove

Russian forces advanced in Kurakhove reaching the City Council building on Mechnikova Street in the western part of the city. The Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade reportedly led this advance. Russian forces also claimed unconfirmed advances toward Slovyanska and Shevchenko. Additional attacks continued near Sontsivka, Zorya, Stari Terny, Dachne, and Dalne around Kurakhove.

Andriivka

Russian forces continued attacks around Vuhledar targeting Yelyzavetivka, Veselyi Hai, Hannivka, Uspenivka, Trudove, Kostiantynopolske, and Sukhi Yaly, though no confirmed advances were made. Russian sources claim they nearly control Uspenivka and have established positions in Yelyzavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces are using new tactics, beginning with motorcycle-mounted small group attacks followed by large, armored vehicle assaults the next day.

Velyka Novosilka

Russian forces launched offensive operations near Velyka Novosilka targeting several settlements including Storozheve, Neskuchne, Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, Blahodatne, Novodarivka, and Novopil. While Russian sources claimed advances near Storozheve and Neskuchne, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian forces are reportedly launching counterattacks in the region, and fighting has resumed in Novyi Komar following an earlier Russian withdrawal.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces made a small advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Orikhiv. Specifically, verified footage shows Russian forces gained ground northeast of Nesteryanka, which is located northwest of Robotyne.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces attacked along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast but made no confirmed territorial gains. Reports indicate Russian military authorities are attempting to seize vehicles used by volunteers to transport troops and supplies in occupied Kherson Oblast.

Ukraine News

Russia launched a major drone attack against Ukraine overnight, deploying 132 Iranian-made Shahed and other drones from multiple Russian regions targeting 11 Ukrainian oblasts including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad, with Ukrainian forces shooting down 58 drones, while 72 failed to reach their targets and two returned to Russia. The attacks damaged homes in Chernihiv Oblast and struck an enterprise and warehouses in Kyiv Oblast.

Ukrainian actor Yakiv Tkachenko, known for his roles in films including “Chervonyi,” “Dovbush,” and “Mr. Jones,” was killed in action while serving with Ukraine’s 128th Territorial Defense Brigade. Tkachenko joined the Territorial Defense Forces of Dnipro at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion and fought in Donetsk Oblast. Despite sustaining two injuries during his service, he repeatedly returned to duty. He was one of at least 102 Ukrainian cultural figures killed since the invasion began.

During the 2026 World Cup draw, FIFA displayed a map that excluded Crimea from Ukrainian territory, prompting strong criticism from Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi demanded a public apology, stating FIFA violated international law and supported Russian propaganda. While FIFA acknowledged the issue and removed the map, the Ukrainian Football Association has sent a formal complaint to FIFA and UEFA leadership. Ukraine will compete in Group D against Iceland, Azerbaijan, and either France or Croatia.

Ukraine has delayed signing a rare earth mineral deal with the current U.S. administration, allowing President-elect Donald Trump to claim credit after taking office in January 2025, according to the New York Times. The strategic move comes as Ukraine seeks to secure Trump’s support, who recently met with President Zelensky and stated he would not “abandon” Ukraine. The deal, initially planned during Biden’s presidency, involves Ukraine’s significant deposits of cobalt, graphite, and lithium. Senator Lindsey Graham suggested Trump would negotiate an agreement benefiting both countries while pursuing peace with Russia.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to send humanitarian aid to Syria through the “Grain from Ukraine” program following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Russia-backed regime on December 8. The program, launched in 2022, has already helped 20 million people avoid hunger. As a major global agricultural producer, Ukraine will work with international partners to prevent a food crisis in Syria.

Innocent Victims Of War

The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)

DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 4

A deadly explosion in central Dnipro, Ukraine, killed one person and injured four others, including two police officers. Ukraine’s Security Service quickly detained a 37-year-old local resident suspected of carrying out the attack under Russian direction.

Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Putin spoke at Russia’s ruling party congress promoting the expansion of the “Time of Heroes” veteran program, which provides job training for military veterans and places them in government positions. He tied this program to national unity efforts, including youth military organizations Yunarmia and Movement of the First, all sponsored by the United Russia party.

Russian sources reported that Alexander Amelin, a veteran of Ukraine combat with BARS-Kaskad, will lead the youth organization Yunarmia. Some suggest this appointment signals plans to transform Yunarmia into a support system for veterans and recruitment, while critics see it as evidence of Russia’s ongoing struggles with veteran reintegration.

Russian officials announced that they are testing a new drone detection system called “Kalinka” in Ukraine. The system reportedly can detect Ukrainian aerial and maritime drones up to 15 kilometers away, including those using Starlink satellite connections.

Ukraine’s Allies

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for increased sanctions and military support for Ukraine during a G7 video conference. The UK recently imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s gold trade, freezing assets of five individuals including Paloma Precious CEO Anto Joseph. This comes as G7 nations work to finalize a $50 billion Ukraine aid package using Russian assets. Gold generated $15.5 billion for Russia in 2021, making it a key revenue source after energy exports.

Norway will move its F-16 pilot training program for Ukraine from Denmark to Portugal in 2025, Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram announced. The program includes aircraft, instructors, and technical support from Kongsberg Aviation Maintenance Services. This effort is part of a broader Air Defense Coalition supporting Ukraine, with Denmark recently delivering a second batch of F-16 fighters to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced potential new sanctions targeting “shadow fleet” tankers involved in Russian oil trades and warned that Chinese banks supporting Russia’s war effort could face sanctions. While China continues trade with Russia, they are wary of U.S. sanctions on their banks. The EU recently agreed on its 15th sanctions package against Russia, while the UK has already sanctioned 40 tankers from Russia’s “shadow fleet” involved in illicit oil trades.

Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has reinforced its commitment to support Ukraine with diplomatic, financial, humanitarian, and military aid in its upcoming parliament election platform. During a recent visit to Kyiv, CDU chairman Friedrich Merz advocated for continued support and suggested that Germany should supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine if Russia doesn’t end its aggression. The party also supports maintaining NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending target and potentially increasing sanctions against Russia.

Russian War Losses (Today/Total)

Troops +1280troops

762440

Tanks +12tanks

9551

Artillery +26artillery

21128

Arm. Veh. +32armd-veh

19707

Aircraft aircrafts

369

Helihelicopters

329

Shipsships

28

Source Material

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org

The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com

Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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