Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Russia’s Rostov Oblast, targeting a facility that produces rocket fuel and ammunition components. Russian officials claim they intercepted 10 missiles, and reports indicate the Taganrog Metallurgical Plant may have also been targeted.
Germany’s Rheinmetall will provide Ukraine with 9 million euros worth of artillery propellant charges in January 2025, while the European Commission has disbursed 4.1 billion euros in grants and loans through the EU’s Ukraine Facility program. NATO has reportedly begun coordinating Western military assistance to Ukraine.
Russian forces have made advances near Kupyansk, Kreminna, and Pokrovsk, though military chief Valery Gerasimov’s claims of capturing 4,500 square kilometers in 2024 were inflated, with independent verification showing only 3,306 square kilometers taken. Russia currently controls 99% of Luhansk, about 70% of Donetsk, and approximately 74% of both Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
In Moscow, Russian authorities detained a 29-year-old Uzbek citizen suspected of killing Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Defense Forces, and his aide Major Ilya Polikarpov. The FSB claims the suspect was recruited by Ukrainian special services in exchange for money and EU residency.
Picture of the Day:
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (r) and President Volodymyr Selensky speak to journalists on the sidelines of a meeting at Rutte’s Brussels residence. (Ansgar Haase/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
NORAD detected four Russian military aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, marking another instance of Russian military presence near North American airspace. While the aircraft, identified as Tu-95MS bombers – the same type used in missile strikes against Ukraine – remained in international airspace, the incident highlights growing tensions in the strategically important Arctic region. Similar encounters with Russian and Chinese military aircraft occurred in July and August 2023. This pattern of military activity near Alaska demonstrates Russia’s continued assertiveness in the Arctic, challenging regional stability and raising concerns about potential escalation between NATO countries and Russia during an already tense period of global relations.
The Path to Peace
During a two-day European Summit in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss Ukraine’s air defense needs, troop training, and the possibility of deploying European peacekeeping forces. While Macron has advocated for sending troops since February 2024 and U.S. President-elect Trump has proposed using European forces to monitor a potential ceasefire, the EU does not expect near-term peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, contradicting Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s optimism about possible winter peace talks.
After discussions with EU and NATO leaders, Zelensky indicated some European leaders are showing positive responses to peacekeeping proposals, though Ukraine would only consider such measures after securing a clear NATO membership timeline. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has stated they will not accept security guarantees as a substitute for NATO membership, and Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak emphasized that Ukraine is not ready for negotiations with Russia without stronger Western support, with no current discussions taking place about sending European troops to Ukraine.
Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, stated on December 17 that peace talks with Russia will only be possible when Russia lacks resources to continue fighting. Speaking in Lviv, Yermak warned that any concessions would only allow Russia to regroup and launch new offensives. President Zelensky criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s attempts to negotiate with Moscow without leverage, while some European leaders like Slovakia’s President Pellegrini suggest Ukraine might need to accept territorial losses. Poland’s Foreign Minister countered that pressure for peace should be directed at Russia, not Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces captured 4,500 square kilometers in 2024, but independent verification shows only 3,306 square kilometers were taken. Defense Minister Belousov provided more accurate figures, stating Russia controls 99% of Luhansk, 70% of Donetsk, 74% of Zaporizhia, and 76% of Kherson regions. Independent assessments show slightly lower percentages for these areas except Luhansk.
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched four Storm Shadow missiles at the Russian-occupied cities of Berdyansk and Tokmak in Zaporizhia Oblast. According to Russian officials, including local occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky, these missiles failed to hit their intended targets.
Russian-appointed officials in occupied Crimea announced they can cut off mobile internet in Sevastopol at any time without warning, citing security reasons. While text messages and calls would still work during outages, Russian military sources suggest the real purpose is to prevent Ukrainian drones from using local SIM cards to navigate to targets and to stop partisans from reporting on drone strike results.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Combat operations persisted in the main Ukrainian advance area, though no confirmed territorial gains were reported. Russian military bloggers claimed advances near several settlements: Kruglenkoye, Plekhovo, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. A Ukrainian platoon commander noted that Russian forces are conducting attacks with infantry groups but have reduced their equipment usage due to Ukrainian drone strikes.
According to U.S. military officials and intercepted communications released by Ukraine’s Security Service, North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast have suffered significant casualties, with “several hundred” killed or wounded across all ranks. A Moscow hospital nurse reported receiving approximately 220 wounded North Korean soldiers by train over two days, with hospital wards being cleared to accommodate them, while Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces claimed their drone operators eliminated nearly 100 North Korean soldiers in just three days, including 50 killed and 47 wounded. These losses are attributed partly to the North Korean troops’ lack of combat experience.
Russia has deployed over 10,000 North Korean soldiers to the region since early August, with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirming that Russian and North Korean forces are conducting an intensive offensive in the area. While pro-Kremlin sources dispute Western reports about North Korean troop presence, citing absence of definitive evidence of casualties near Kremyanoye and Plekhovo, the Kremlin’s reluctance to acknowledge their presence likely stems from concerns about contradicting Putin’s claims of high Russian recruitment and admitting reliance on foreign forces. This development coincides with strengthened military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including a recently effective defense pact, though Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost about half the territory they initially captured in Kursk Oblast during August and September operations.
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Kamensky Chemical Plant (also known as Kamensky Combine) in Russia’s Rostov Oblast, one of Russia’s largest chemical facilities that produces rocket fuel, explosives, and ammunition components for missile systems, and is currently sanctioned by the EU, UK, and US for its role in Russia’s war effort. While Ukrainian officials confirmed the strike and counter-disinformation chief Andrii Kovalenko verified the facility’s military production role, Russian officials haven’t confirmed the attack but claim their air defense intercepted 10 missiles, with additional reports suggesting the Taganrog Metallurgical Plant may have also been targeted, though the type of missiles used in the strike remains unconfirmed.
A large fire erupted at Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov Oblast following what Russian officials describe as a mass drone and missile attack. According to Acting Governor Yuri Slyusar, the attack involved over three dozen drones and three missiles. This attack follows a reported strike on the nearby Kamensky Combine chemical plant, which produces rocket fuel. The Novoshakhtinsk refinery has been a previous target, with a July attack reportedly destroying 1.5 million tons of oil products worth $540 million, and another attack in March causing a partial shutdown.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made minor advances in the Kharkiv region, with geolocated footage showing gains in central Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. While Russian attacks continued near Vovchansk, Ukrainian forces reportedly established a position near Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv City. A Ukrainian battalion commander warned that Russian reconnaissance groups are illegally impersonating Ukrainian soldiers to infiltrate their units, a violation of warfare laws.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces achieved small advances near Dvorichna (north of Kupyansk) and east of Terny (northwest of Kreminna), confirmed by geolocated footage. While Russian sources claimed a 5-kilometer push near Tabaivka and improved positions near Lozova, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces continued attacks across multiple locations including Petropavlivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nadiya, Zelenyi Hai, Yampolivka, and the Serebryanske forest area. Near Kruhlyakivka, a Ukrainian commander reported that Russian forces deployed about 100 armored vehicles since December 1, with Ukrainian forces destroying 90 of them. While Russians entered Kruhlyakivka, Ukrainian forces prevented their advance toward Kolisnykivka.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces launched offensive operations near Siversk on December 18, with attacks focused on Siversk proper, Hryhorivka to the northeast, and Verkhnokamyanske to the east. While no confirmed advances were made, a Ukrainian battalion commander reported that Russian forces used poor weather conditions to conduct a nighttime assault involving 60 personnel with various vehicles. Russian forces have doubled their guided glide bomb strikes in the area and are showing improved coordination and training, which Ukrainian officers attribute to recent command changes.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched offensive operations near Chasiv Yar targeting the town itself along with Hryhorivka to the north and Bila Hora and Stupochky to the south. While no confirmed advances were made, Russian military bloggers report ongoing fighting at the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Recent fighting near Toretsk has seen advances by both sides – Ukrainian forces reclaimed positions in southern Shcherbynivka while Russian forces made small gains west of Nelipivka. Combat continues around the Tsentralna Mine in central Toretsk, though Ukrainian officials state it’s premature to claim Russian forces have entered the facility.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces made a confirmed advance near the railroad line north of Novyi Trud, south of Pokrovsk. While Russian sources claim multiple advances near settlements including Dachenske, Novoolenivka, Novotroitske, and Pishchane, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials report Russian forces are now approximately three kilometers from Pokrovsk, prompting the evacuation of all children and families from the city. Fighting continues across multiple locations around Pokrovsk, with Russian forces conducting operations in numerous settlements stretching east, southeast, south, and southwest of the city.
Kurakhove
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kurakhove. Ukraine’s military reported losing some positions on the southeastern outskirts of Sontsivka. While Russian sources claim advances in multiple areas including Sontsivka, Zorya, and near Dachne, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Andriivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vuhledar without confirmed advances. Russian military bloggers claim advances toward Kostiantynopil and Ulakly, and report seizing Zelenivka, Hihant, Uspenivka, and Kostiantynopolske, though these claims remain unverified.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces reported losing some positions near Novyi Komar. While Russian sources claim to have captured Novyi Komar and Makarivka, and made advances near Storozheve, these claims remain unconfirmed. Fighting
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched attacks near several settlements in western Zaporizhia Oblast focusing on Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, and the Orikhiv area. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances near Bilohirya, these claims remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are conducting reconnaissance in preparation for potential future attacks in the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv areas.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked along the Dnipro River area, including the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast. However, they failed to make any confirmed territorial gains.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a large-scale drone attack against Ukraine, sending 81 Shahed and other drones from multiple regions including Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Rostov oblasts. Ukrainian forces shot down 51 drones across ten regions, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia, while 30 other drones were neutralized by Ukrainian countermeasures.
In a significant shift, Russia has initiated communication with Ukraine regarding prisoner-of-war exchanges following Ukraine’s military operation in Kursk Oblast, according to Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, nearly 60 prisoner exchanges have occurred, freeing about 3,600 Ukrainians, though tens of thousands remain captive. During Ukraine’s recent Kursk Oblast operation, hundreds of Russian conscripts were captured, with some exchanged in October. Lubinets noted that Russia continues to complicate the exchange process, citing incidents like the disputed Il-76 plane crash in Belgorod Oblast and the Olenivka prison attack that killed 54 Ukrainian POWs.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico will meet with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss gas transit through Ukraine after 2024. While Ukraine plans to stop Russian gas transit after December 31, Slovakian officials are seeking alternatives as the country currently imports 3 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually through Ukraine. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has indicated openness to negotiating non-Russian gas transit. The situation particularly affects landlocked Central European countries, with Slovakia’s state energy company estimating an additional cost of 150 million euros to replace Ukrainian transit routes. Fico, who stopped military aid to Ukraine after taking office in September 2023, has also accepted an invitation to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in May.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine has announced the development of a new jet-powered drone called “Peklo” (Hell), unveiled by President Volodymyr Zelensky and military leadership on December 6. This drone can fly at speeds of 700 kph (440 mph) with a range of 700 kilometers (440 miles), carrying a 50-kilogram (110-pound) warhead. The Peklo’s high speed and long range would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russia’s European territory, while making it difficult for Russian air defenses to intercept. Ukrainian manufacturers claim they can produce around 30 units monthly, with 70% of components sourced domestically. If mass-produced, this weapon could significantly impact the strategic balance of the conflict by allowing Ukraine to target Russian military facilities without relying on Western-supplied missiles.
In December, Ukraine delivered over 200,000 domestically-produced drones to its front-line units, according to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. These Ukrainian-made drones help counter Russia’s artillery advantage and are part of a broader strategy to expand drone capabilities. Ukraine plans to produce 30,000 long-range drones in 2025 for targeting Russian military assets. The country established an Unmanned Systems Forces in September to improve drone operations and development. Both aerial and naval drones have proven effective in Ukrainian operations, with Russia also increasingly using drones for battlefield operations and attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine’s Allies
The EU expects to open two accession clusters for Ukraine in the first half of 2025 during Poland’s EU Council presidency. The first clusters will cover “Fundamentals” (including judiciary and rights) and “Internal Market” (covering trade and economic matters). While President Zelensky aims to open all clusters in 2024, EU Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi suggests Ukraine could potentially join the EU by 2029 if reforms continue. Ukraine, which received candidate status in June 2022, was approved to begin accession talks in December 2023.
The World Bank approved $2.05 billion in development grants for Ukraine, including $1 billion from a new U.S. $20 billion loan backed by frozen Russian assets. This is part of a larger G7 plan to provide $50 billion to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets as backing. The funding, which includes additional support from the UK and Japan, will help Ukraine implement economic reforms and strengthen sectors including railways, banking, and renewable energy as the country works toward EU membership.
Germany’s Rheinmetall will provide Ukraine with 9 million euros worth of artillery propellant charges in January 2025. Additionally, the European Commission has sent Ukraine 4.1 billion euros in grants and loans through the EU’s Ukraine Facility program. NATO has also reportedly begun coordinating Western military aid to Ukraine. This combined support aims to help sustain Ukraine’s defense capabilities and economic stability.
UK Defense Secretary John Healey announced a £225 million ($283 million) military aid package for Ukraine on December 19 during his visit to Kyiv. The package includes £92 million for naval equipment and drones, plus £39 million for counter-drone systems. The announcement comes as President Zelensky requests additional air defense systems from NATO allies, stating Ukraine needs 19 systems to protect its infrastructure. This UK support arrives as concerns grow about potential U.S. military aid delays before President-elect Trump takes office.
The US State Department, through spokesperson Matthew Miller, has confirmed that military equipment and materials already provided or scheduled for delivery will sustain Ukraine’s defense needs through 2025, though The New York Times reports that $5.6 billion in remaining military aid may not be delivered before Trump takes office in January despite Biden’s administration planning to continue aid through the presidential drawdown authority for direct Pentagon stockpile transfers. While the US remains Ukraine’s largest military donor, having provided over $60 billion in military support during Biden’s term, President Zelensky is working to secure continued US support ahead of the incoming Trump administration by emphasizing Ukraine’s strategic value and natural resources, noting in a Le Parisien interview that while Trump currently lacks access to critical intelligence, future discussions could be more productive once he has full presidential briefings, though concerns persist about continued U.S. aid under Trump, who has promised to end the war quickly without detailing his plans.
The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a military coalition of Northern European nations including Sweden and Finland, has provided significant support to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, with member states committing €11 billion in military and financial aid. While Ukraine participated in its first JEF exercise in Latvia in November 2024, it has not yet achieved its goal of full membership in the alliance. The Netherlands has recently pushed for Ukraine’s inclusion, calling for membership through a parliamentary resolution ahead of the JEF Summit in Tallinn. Critics question the UK’s leadership role, as Britain has been notably quiet on Ukraine’s membership despite being JEF’s leading nation. The alliance was designed as a rapid response force focusing on Northern Europe, the Arctic, and the Baltic Sea regions to counter Russian threats.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels on December 18 to discuss strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and securing Western support. During the two-day European Summit, Zelensky is meeting with leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the EU to discuss military and humanitarian aid. The talks come as U.S. President-elect Trump has suggested reducing military aid to Ukraine and proposed using European troops to monitor a potential ceasefire. Zelensky indicated Ukraine might consider this proposal, but only after receiving a clear timeline for NATO membership. He also requested 19 additional air defense systems to protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While NATO affirmed Ukraine’s path to membership in July 2024, no definitive timeline has been established.
Russia News
On December 17, Russian Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the 54-year-old head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Defense Forces, and his aide Major Ilya Polikarpov were killed in Moscow when a bomb attached to a scooter exploded near Kirillov’s residence on Ryazansky Prospekt. Russian authorities have detained two suspects, including a 29-year-old Uzbek citizen identified by media as Ahmad Kurbanov, who allegedly confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services to plant and remotely detonate the explosive device in exchange for $100,000 and EU residency, with the Uzbek Embassy now working with Russian law enforcement to verify these claims.
While Ukraine officially denies involvement, sources within Ukraine’s special services told Kyiv Post that the operation was conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), with the SBU claiming responsibility and calling Kirillov “a war criminal” who had been charged by Ukrainian prosecutors for ordering chemical weapon attacks against Ukrainian soldiers. U.S. General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s nominee for Ukraine peace envoy, criticized the assassination, warning that killing military officers in their hometowns could escalate tensions.
Russian lawmakers have approved legislation to expand the definition of high treason to include any activities deemed “against the security of the Russian Federation,” particularly targeting affiliations with foreign organizations. The bill, passed by the State Duma, awaits upper house approval and President Putin’s signature. Those convicted of high treason can face life imprisonment, a penalty introduced in April 2023. The legislation also includes new restrictions on “foreign agents,” limiting their ability to manage money from various sources including property rentals and bank deposits. Currently, about 500 individuals and organizations are registered as foreign agents in Russia. Rights groups warn the expanded law could be used to target journalists and others with Western connections.
Russian shopping centers are facing a severe crisis, with about 25% at risk of closure by 2025, according to the Russian Council of Shopping Centers. The crisis stems from record-high interest rates, currently at 21%, and the departure of Western companies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mall operators are struggling with massive tax increases, some rising tenfold in two years, while consuming half their income. The situation reflects broader economic troubles in Russia, where foreign company exits have resulted in losses exceeding $107 billion since 2022. The Central Bank is considering further rate hikes to combat inflation, potentially worsening conditions for struggling retail centers.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has reportedly damaged or destroyed 28 Russian ships, including 10 of the Black Sea Fleet’s 15 landing vessels, according to military observer Petro Chernyk. The Black Sea Fleet still maintains 20 ships capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. The loss of landing ships is particularly significant as Russia uses them to supply Crimea and currently lacks the capability to build replacements. For context, Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Pletenchuk noted that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had approximately 80 naval combat vessels when the invasion began.
Troops +1530
768220 |
Tanks +5
9576 |
Artillery +14
21178 |
Arm. Veh. +27
19799 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian conscripts’ parents have reported that military officials are pressuring their children into signing combat service contracts for the war in Ukraine. Parents from Chebarkul, Chelyabinsk Oblast, plan to raise this issue during President Putin’s Direct Line event. Separately, a conscript from Pskov Oblast died under unclear circumstances in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to be using these tactics to maintain their offensive operations in Ukraine.
In a military briefing, Russian General Valery Gerasimov announced that Russia is completing its first S-500 air defense regiment and finalizing tests of the “Prince Pozharsky” nuclear submarine. He stated that Russia plans to add two more similar submarines to its navy fleet by 2028.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com