Summary of the Day:
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in an interview that he regrets not invading Ukraine before February 2022. Speaking with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin, Putin claimed Ukraine and Western powers misled Russia regarding the Minsk II Accords, which he says gave the West time to prepare Ukraine militarily. He argued Russia should have acted sooner rather than waiting until “it was no longer possible to do nothing.”
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the Stalnoy Kon oil depot near Oryol City causing a fire. Oryol Oblast Governor Andrei Klychkov claimed Russian defenses downed 20 Ukrainian drones during the attack. This was the second strike on this facility, following a previous attack on December 13-14. In response to such attacks, satellite imagery shows Russia constructing aircraft shelters at several bases, including those in Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk City, and occupied Belbek, Crimea.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces reclaimed previously lost positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast, while Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, as well as in Kursk Oblast. In a grave development, Russian forces committed another war crime with the execution of five Ukrainian prisoners of war near Blahodatne, south of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Intelligence reports indicate North Korea may have transferred additional ballistic missiles to Russia, further escalating international concerns about weapons transfers between the two nations.
Picture of the Day:
Activists hold banners urging for the return of Ukrainian POWs from Russian captivity during a rally, while a symbolic fire divides a table featuring a Christmas dinner for a civilian and one for a POW in Lviv. (Stanislav Ivanov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
President-elect Donald Trump has announced five key Pentagon nominations, including Stephen Feinberg, a billionaire investor with no defense experience, as deputy defense secretary. The nominations, which require Senate confirmation, include Elbridge Colby as under-secretary for policy, who opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership while supporting Russian sanctions. Michael Duffey, nominated for acquisitions and sustainment, was previously involved in withholding Ukraine military aid during Trump’s first term, leading to his impeachment. This follows Trump’s controversial nomination of Fox News host Pete Hegseth for defense secretary in November. These appointments, along with reported plans for military leadership dismissals, signal potential shifts in U.S. defense policy that could impact international alliances and global stability, particularly regarding support for Ukraine and NATO relations.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The meeting focused primarily on gas transit issues following Ukraine’s decision not to extend Russian gas transit agreements beyond December 31, 2024. This development threatens regional stability as Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, and Austria, heavily dependent on Russian gas, face potential energy challenges. The meeting, representing only the third visit by a European leader to Russia since the invasion began, highlights growing divisions within European unity regarding Ukraine. Fico’s criticism of Ukraine’s position on gas transit and nuclear sanctions, coupled with his opposition to military aid for Ukraine, signals a potential shift in European solidarity that could impact both regional security and peace efforts. Slovakia’s estimated additional transit costs of €228.73 million and Fico’s expressed desire to normalize relations with Russia suggest a complex balancing act between energy security needs and maintaining European unity in response to Russian aggression.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s met with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan signaling potential shifts in global alliances. This meeting, focused on expanding cooperation between Belarus and the UAE, could have implications for international relations, particularly given Belarus’s close ties with Russia and its role in regional tensions. Their discussions on bilateral development come at a time of increasing global diplomatic realignments.
The Path to Peace
Donald Trump announced at a Phoenix rally that Russian President Putin wants to meet with him “as soon as possible” to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This follows Putin’s December 19 statement about being prepared to meet “at any time.” Trump, who will take office on January 20, 2025, met with President Zelensky on December 7 in Paris where Zelensky reportedly praised Trump as the only leader Putin feared. Trump has nominated retired general Keith Kellogg as his special Ukrainian peace envoy. Kellogg’s peace plan would freeze the front line in Ukraine, postpone NATO accession discussions, and partially lift Russian sanctions. According to the Financial Times, Trump will continue sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine when he becomes president.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Geolocated drone footage has documented Russian forces committing a war crime by executing five surrendered Ukrainian prisoners of war near Blahodatne, south of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, with Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reporting the incident while Press officer Ivan Sekach of the 110th Mechanized Brigade specified that four soldiers were shot after surrender and two others were killed by earlier shelling; this adds to a documented pattern of over 100 POW executions by Russian forces, including a similar February incident in Avdiivka where six wounded Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed, though proving such violations of the Geneva Conventions remains challenging due to difficulty recovering bodies, with these executions appearing to be either enabled or ignored by Russian commanders.
South Korea’s military reports that approximately 1,100 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded while fighting for Russia in Ukraine since December. North Korea has deployed thousands of troops to support Russia, including forces in the Kursk border region. Additionally, North Korea is supplying Russia with military equipment including self-destructible drones, rocket launchers, and artillery. The partnership stems from a defense agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang that took effect this month.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced near Kruglenkoye in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast. While Russian sources claim to have captured Kruglenkoye and parts of Kurilovka, these claims remain unverified. Fighting continues around several settlements including Novoivanovka, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Pogrebki, and Martynovka. Ukrainian commanders report that Russian forces have recently begun using armored vehicles in their assaults, a change from their previous infantry-only tactics.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the Stalnoy Kon oil depot near Oryol City in western Russia causing a fire, with Oblast Governor Andrei Klychkov claiming Russian defenses downed 20 drones during the attack and no casualties reported, while videos shared on social media showed large explosions lighting up the night sky before the fire was extinguished by 8 a.m. local time; this was the second strike on this facility following a previous attack on December 13-14, with Ukraine’s military confirming the depot is a major terminal supplying petroleum products to Russian forces, and according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, these strikes, combined with international sanctions and economic factors, have significantly impacted Russian oil refineries’ operations, increasing their downtime from 35.9 million tons in 2023 to 41.1 million tons in 2024, while in response to such attacks, satellite imagery shows Russia constructing aircraft shelters at several bases, including those in Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk City, and occupied Belbek, Crimea.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attacked several areas near Kharkiv City but failed to make confirmed advances. The attacks focused on settlements north of Kharkiv including Kozacha Lopan, Hoptivka, Hlyboke, and Vysoka Yaruha, as well as Starytsya and Vovchansk to the northeast. Chechen forces are reportedly operating near Vovchansky-Khutory.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made a small advance near Dvorichna, northeast of Kupyansk. While Russia claims to have captured Lozova and made advances near Zahryzove and Kruhlyakivka, these claims are unverified. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian mechanized assault near Synkivka. Fighting continues along multiple settlements in the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Novoserhiivka, Zeleny Hai, Nadiya, Ivanivka, Terny, Druzhelyubivka, Torske, and Dibrova.
Bottom of Form
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk at Serebryanka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyimka but failed to make any advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky but failed to make confirmed advances. While Russian military bloggers claimed their 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade made progress in northern Chasiv Yar (Pivnichne Microraion), this claim remains unverified.
Toretsk
Russian forces advanced in northern Toretsk with video evidence confirming their progress. They conducted attacks near Toretsk, Druzhba, and Sukha Balka. Russian reconnaissance and motorized rifle units were reported operating in the area, including near Niu York.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces captured Dachenske (south of Pokrovsk) with video evidence confirming their advance. They also conducted attacks across multiple settlements around Pokrovsk, including Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Novoukrainka, Novovasylivka, Novoyeliyzavetivka, and Novoolenivka.
Kurakhove
Russian forces attacked near Kurakhove and surrounding settlements including Sontsivka, Shevchenko, Stari Terny, and Dachne, but made no confirmed advances. While Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have captured Sontsivka and some bloggers suggested Russian forces nearly control Kurakhove, these claims remain unverified. One Russian source reported their forces are approaching Kurakhove’s thermal power plant.
Andriivka
Russian forces attacked near Vuhledar targeting areas near Uspenivka, Kostiantynopil, Kostiantynopolske, Yantarne, and Rozlyv, but made no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances near Yantarne and south of Zelenivka, these claims remain unverified.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces conducted attacks near Velyka Novosilka targeting areas near Rozdolne, Odradne, Makarivka, Blahodatne, Neskuchne, Storozheve, Vremivka, and Novosilka, but made no confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed they are conducting clearing operations near Storozheve, while Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Rozdolne, with rainy weather hampering Russian drone operations.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported no fighting near Hulayipole in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian forces regained positions in Kamyanske, northwest of Robotyne, pushing Russian forces from the northern part of the village near the Kakhovka Reservoir. While Russian sources claim they stopped the Ukrainian advance and cut off supplies, Ukraine continued local attacks in the area. Russian forces launched counterattacks near Pyatykhaty and Novoandriivka, with Chechen drone units conducting reconnaissance near Robotyne. A Russian claim of capturing Ukrainian positions near Orikhiv remains unconfirmed.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn confirmed that Russian forces attempted to cross the Dnipro River near the Antonivsky bridge east of Kherson City on December 20. The crossing attempt failed when Ukrainian forces intercepted the Russian group before they reached the river’s midpoint. Russia used poor weather and smokescreens to cover their advance and continues targeting Kozatskyi and Velikiy Potemkin islands. Ukrainian forces also reported destroying a Russian Starlink terminal in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a major aerial attack against Ukraine consisting of one Iskander-M missile from Crimea and 103 Shahed and other drones launched from multiple Russian regions and occupied territories, with Ukrainian forces intercepting 52 drones across 12 regions (Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia) while 44 were disabled by electronic warfare; the attacks damaged civilian areas including apartment buildings and businesses in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv regions with no reported casualties, and according to Ukrainian Air Force Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, while Ukraine intercepts about 95% of Russian drones, their success rate against missiles is lower due to Russia’s increased use of harder-to-intercept ballistic missiles, noting that Russia has significantly escalated its drone attacks, launching about ten times more Shahed drones compared to last fall, with deployments increasing from 2,023 in October to 2,576 in November.
Ukraine’s Justice Ministry expects to fully restore state registries within two weeks following a major cyberattack on December 19. First Deputy Justice Minister Mykola Kucheryavenko reported that while the attack created serious challenges, no data was lost, and backup copies exist. Ukraine’s Security Service suspects Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU) orchestrated the attack, which targeted multiple government services, including sensitive adoption records. A criminal investigation is underway, with officials noting the attack had been planned for months.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 10
Russian forces attacked the western bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast using glide bombs, artillery, and a ballistic missile. One person was killed, and six others were wounded, including a child.
Russian forces heavily shelled Nikopol and surrounding areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast wounding three people, including a 16-year-old boy.
Russian forces attacked front-line areas in Donetsk Oblast, injuring one person in the city of Pokrovsk.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Poland, Vasyl Bodnar, reported that over 1,000 applications have been submitted to the Ukrainian Legion in Poland, with the first contracts signed in November 2023. The volunteer military unit, launched in July and based in Lublin, Poland, provides basic and specialized training to Ukrainian men living in Poland before they join military units in Ukraine. The initiative represents part of Poland’s strategic support for Ukraine’s military needs as the war enters its third year, with the next recruitment phase scheduled for early January.
Ukraine’s Allies
The IMF has released updated projections for Ukraine with two scenarios: a baseline scenario where the war ends by late 2025, and a downside scenario extending to mid-2026. Under the baseline scenario, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow 4% in 2024, with inflation at 10%. The downside scenario predicts more severe economic impacts, including higher inflation and fiscal deficits above 20% through 2026, requiring $177.2 billion in external financing. The IMF just approved a new $1.1 billion tranche for Ukraine as part of its $15.6 billion support program, bringing total disbursements to $9.8 billion.
Russia News
Russian President Putin threatened Ukraine with “more destruction” following drone strikes on Kazan, Russia. Eight drones hit the city, located 620 miles from Ukraine’s border, damaging luxury apartments and an industrial facility. While Kyiv hasn’t claimed responsibility, the attack prompted school evacuations and airport closures in Tatarstan region. Putin also recently threatened to test Western air defenses by launching Oreshnik missiles at Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in an interview that he regrets not invading Ukraine before February 2022. Speaking with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin, Putin claimed Ukraine and Western powers misled Russia regarding the Minsk II Accords, which he says gave the West time to prepare Ukraine militarily. He argued Russia should have acted sooner rather than waiting until “it was no longer possible to do nothing.” This echoes similar comments he made during his December 19 press conference. Putin notably ignored that Ukraine’s military strengthening was a defensive response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukrainian territory and conflict in eastern Ukraine. The Minsk II Accords, which favored Russia and placed no obligations on Moscow despite its role as a supposed neutral mediator, established a ceasefire that Russian-backed forces repeatedly violated.
BMW announced that it discovered illegal exports of luxury cars to Russia from its Hanover branch, violating sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Following a Business Insider report about over 100 luxury cars being delivered to Russian buyers, BMW suspended sales and dismissed responsible employees. While EU and U.S. sanctions banned luxury car exports to Russia in March 2022, vehicles have continued entering Russia through third-party countries, with imports increasing in 2023 despite initial declines. BMW states it is taking measures to prevent future sanctions violations.
Western luxury goods remain readily available in Moscow’s high-end shopping districts despite sanctions meant to restrict their import. Major shopping centers like GUM and TSUM continue selling products from brands like Prada and Yves Saint Laurent, even though these companies officially left Russia. The goods reach Russia through intermediaries in countries like Kazakhstan and Dubai, with retailers using creative methods including professional “buyers” who purchase directly from European boutiques. Moscow shoppers report little change in product availability, though prices may be higher.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1990
776090 |
Tanks +6
9615 |
Artillery +29
21313 |
Arm. Veh. +15
19885 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
329 |
Ships
28 |
Russia’s Allies
According to footage from December 21, North Korea may have sent four more ballistic missiles to Russia via a train spotted in Tyumen Oblast that appeared to carry 10 M-1939 Koksan artillery systems and possibly either Pukguksong-2 missiles or Hwasongpho-11Na missiles, though both Ukrainian and Russian sources note the video quality is too poor to confirm what’s being transported; South Korea’s military reported that North Korea is preparing to send more troops and kamikaze drones to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, following their existing military support which includes troops already engaged in combat operations in Kursk Oblast, ballistic missiles including KN-23, and artillery ammunition, with South Korean officials stating at least 100 North Korean soldiers have been killed in Ukraine due to inexperience with drone warfare, while President Zelensky has accused Russia of attempting to conceal these casualty numbers; this expanded military cooperation follows a defense treaty signed between Russia and North Korea in June, with North Korea viewing this partnership as an opportunity to gain combat experience and modernize its weapons systems.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com