Russian Casualties Surpass 800,000 – Day 1047 (January 6, 2025)

Summary of the Day:

Ukrainian forces achieved tactical advances in Kursk Oblast successfully pushing into southern Berdin, central Russkoye Porechnoye, and central Novosotnitsky, all northeast of Sudzha. Supporting these ground operations, Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes near a Russian aviation base in Kursk City, demonstrating their integrated strike capabilities.

Russian forces responded with counteroffensives near Sudzha, advancing west of Malaya Loknya and claiming to capture Leonidovo. Additional Russian advances were reported in the Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions, with the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming control of Kurakhove. In a significant disclosure, Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed that 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast operations.

On the humanitarian front, a preliminary agreement was reached between Ukraine and Russia for regular prisoner exchanges in 2025, prioritizing seriously ill and wounded prisoners. This development comes amid reports of Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs near Neskuchne on January 3, raising concerns about violations of international law governing prisoner treatment.

Picture of the Day:

an apartment building at night with smoke coming out of the windowAn aerial view shows Ukrainian Orthodox believers bathing in cold water during Epiphany celebrations in Kyiv, Ukraine, amid the ongoing Russian invasion (Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images).

Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War

Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria faces a severe energy crisis after Russia’s Gazprom halted gas deliveries on January 1, leading Moldova to summon a Russian diplomat and causing a 30% energy deficit that has resulted in heating outages and rolling blackouts affecting 72,000 homes and 1,500 high-rise buildings. While Moldova proper has transitioned to European energy supplies, Transnistria – which hosts 1,500 Russian troops and remains dependent on Moscow despite being internationally recognized as part of Moldova – continues to rely on Russian gas, with regional leader Vadim Krasnoselsky warning of possible power station failure as electricity demand surges. The crisis stems from a disputed debt, with Russia claiming Moldova owes $700 million while Moldova maintains it’s only $9 million, and the situation threatens broader regional stability due to the interconnected power grids of Moldova and Transnistria, with Prime Minister Dorin Recean suggesting Russia is deliberately creating instability to influence upcoming parliamentary elections.

The European Union reports stable energy markets after Ukraine ended Russian gas transit through its territory on January 1, 2024. Despite warnings from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico about potential price spikes and supply issues, EU spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen confirmed no disruptions have occurred. Ukraine’s decision to end transit aims to stop funding Russia’s war effort, though some EU countries remain dependent on Russian gas. This development marks another step in the EU’s ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels since the invasion of Ukraine, though it has created political tensions with some member states.

Slovak lawmakers, led by Parliament Deputy Speaker Andrej Danko, plan to visit Moscow in January to develop relations with Russia, following Prime Minister Robert Fico’s December meeting with Vladimir Putin. The six-member delegation from the SNS and Smer parties aims to discuss Russian gas supplies and business ties, highlighting Slovakia’s continued reliance on Russian energy despite EU sanctions. This diplomatic move comes as Slovakia threatens to cut support to Ukraine over the end of Russian gas transit through Ukrainian pipelines. These actions potentially undermine EU unity in supporting Ukraine and could impact regional stability by strengthening Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe.

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has directly accused Russia of causing the December 25 crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 that killed 38 people. The flight, traveling from Baku to Grozny, crashed in Kazakhstan after reportedly being hit by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense missile. Speaking to victims’ families, Aliyev criticized Russian President Putin for not accepting responsibility and accused Russian agencies of suppressing evidence. The incident, which affected multiple nationalities including Azerbaijanis, Russians, Kazakhs, and Kyrgyz citizens, has created diplomatic tension between Azerbaijan and Russia, potentially destabilizing relations between these regional powers.

The Path to Peace

President Zelensky that Europe must be involved in any peace plan with Russia, given Ukraine’s European identity and future EU membership. He warned that Putin would target Europe if the U.S. leaves NATO and stressed that while Trump’s administration is crucial for security guarantees, any ceasefire without such guarantees would only allow Russia to rearm.

French President Emmanuel Macron has called for Ukraine to be “realistic” about territorial expectations and engage in “realistic discussions on territorial issues” regarding the war with Russia, which currently occupies one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, while emphasizing that Ukraine’s capitulation would damage Western credibility and warning there’s no quick solution to the conflict as Trump’s January 20 inauguration approaches. Macron stressed Europe’s role in providing security guarantees for Ukraine and supported the idea of European peacekeepers following any ceasefire, while urging U.S. involvement in bringing Russia to negotiations and warning of consequences for both Europe and the U.S. if Ukraine loses – a sentiment echoed by Germany, which added that peace terms cannot be dictated by Moscow.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized Ukraine’s position in Russia’s Kursk region as crucial for future negotiations, with Ukraine’s cross-border operations there beginning in August and allegedly securing 1,300 square kilometers of territory (though Russia has since reportedly reclaimed half), as Ukraine launched a new counteroffensive. Speaking in Seoul, Blinken stressed that Ukraine needs “the strongest possible hand” and warned that even after a ceasefire, Putin would likely “rest, refit, and re-attack” unless deterrents are in place, while noting that the Biden administration is expediting military aid to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. President Zelensky views the Kursk incursion as a strategic advantage for future talks, though this comes as President-elect Trump, who takes office January 20, has criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine as wasteful, with his aides suggesting using aid to pressure Ukraine into territorial concessions to Russia, even as Trump has pledged to facilitate negotiations while indicating possible changes to U.S. assistance levels and stating he won’t abandon Ukraine.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

On January 3, evidence emerged of Russian forces executing three Ukrainian prisoners of war near Neskuchne village in Donetsk Oblast, with Ukrainian intelligence releasing an audio recording allegedly capturing a Russian commander from the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade ordering the execution of a POW, while Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported that the soldiers were bound and shot in the head, adding to the reported 109 POW executions in 2024 – actions that violate both the Geneva Conventions and international law governing the treatment of prisoners of war, prompting Lubinets to seek intervention from the International Committee of the Red Cross and UN.

Ukrainian forces successfully targeted Russian air defenses in southern Ukraine, destroying five systems in one day. The Ukrainian Navy reported destroying two Pantsir-S1 systems and damaging an Osa system in occupied Kherson Oblast using drone strikes. Ukraine’s Southern Command confirmed the destruction of two additional S-300 systems. A Russian military blogger noted that one Pantsir was destroyed by a drone launched from a sea platform, criticizing Russia’s lack of countermeasures against Ukraine’s drone capabilities.

Ukrainian drone operations continue to disrupt Russian activities in the Black Sea, with Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk reporting that Russia has heavily fortified the 19-kilometer Kerch Strait Bridge with air defenses, increased fuel truck traffic after Ukrainian strikes damaged their ferry supply routes, and is working to install new barge barriers after previous ones were destroyed by Black Sea storms – the bridge, built after Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea in 2014, has been damaged multiple times by Ukrainian strikes, notably in October 2022 and July 2023, and remains the subject of an ongoing legal dispute at the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Russia has reduced its naval presence to a single submarine protecting a base, likely in Sevastopol, relies on aircraft for Black Sea protection due to Ukrainian drone threats, has been forced to stop repairing vessels in Crimea, and faces limitations at its base in occupied Ochamchire, Abkhazia, which lacks adequate harbor facilities for ships or fleet expansion due to unsuitable terrain and shallow waters.

A map of ukraine with a red line

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Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia

Recent Ukrainian military operations in Kursk Oblast showed tactical gains. Ukrainian forces advanced in southern Berdin, central Russkoye Porechnoye, and central Novosotnitsky, all located northeast of Sudzha. Russian forces, including Rosgvardia’s “Talib” Group and various military units, claimed to have repelled Ukrainian attacks in these areas. While some Russian sources suggest these could be diversionary tactics, the increased Ukrainian activity may signal the start of a larger operation in the region.

Explosions were reported near a Russian aviation base in Kursk City, suggesting ongoing Ukrainian long-range strikes in the region. Russian sources claim their forces intercepted Ukrainian missiles over Kursk Oblast. These strikes appear to be part of Ukraine’s strategy to combine precision strikes with ground operations, potentially supported by electronic warfare systems.

Russian forces launched counterattacks in response to Ukrainian activity near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly advanced west of Malaya Loknya and claimed to have captured Leonidovo. Additional Russian attacks were reported near Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Russian naval infantry units, including elements from both the Pacific Fleet and Caspian Flotilla, were involved in operations near Malaya Loknya and surrounding settlements. The presence of Caspian naval units suggests a redeployment of forces from Zaporizhia Oblast to Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian President Zelensky reports significant Russian losses in the Kursk region over the past five months, claiming 38,000 Russian casualties (including 15,000 irreversible losses) and over 3,000 pieces of equipment including tanks, armored vehicles, and aircraft according to Ukraine’s General Staff, while also reporting that 3,800 North Korean military personnel have been killed or wounded in the region. Ukrainian forces launched operations in Kursk in early August (though Russia claims to have regained much of the captured territory) and initiated a new offensive on January 5, with reports suggesting approximately 11,000 North Korean troops are supporting Russian forces in the region, as Zelensky cautioned that North Korea might send more troops to support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) conducted a drone attack on Russia’s Ust-Luga commercial seaport near St. Petersburg during the night of January 3-4, 2025, with drones flying over 900 kilometers to reach the target and severely damaging one gas container while damaging three others at the facility, according to both SBU sources and Ukraine’s Suspilne news outlet. The strike targeted gas condensate tanks at this major Baltic Sea logistics hub – one of Russia’s largest seaports and crucial for its oil and gas exports via its “shadow fleet” – with the facility potentially requiring at least a month for repairs, disrupting terminal operations.

Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces launched limited attacks near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City without gaining ground. According to Kharkiv Oblast Military Administrator Oleh Synehubov, Ukraine’s offensive operations in Kursk Oblast have helped reduce Russian attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia

Kupyansk

Russian forces attacked near Petropavlivka and Synkivka in the Kupyansk area but failed to advance. A Ukrainian drone commander reported that Russians transport troops using armored columns, with mine-clearing vehicles and tanks leading, followed by infantry fighting vehicles carrying personnel. When weather prevents the use of vehicles and drones, Russian forces send infantry on foot, sometimes walking up to 10 kilometers to reach the front. Russian forces also struck Oskil River crossings near Kupyansk overnight.

Borova

Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Borova including Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Nadiya, Pershotravneve, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Makiivka, but made no confirmed advances. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances east of Zahryzove and west of Lozova, these claims remain unconfirmed. Video evidence showed a Russian platoon-sized mechanized assault east of Kruhlyakivka, but this attack also failed to gain ground.

Lyman

Russian forces captured Ivanivka and advanced southwest of the settlement and northwest of Terny (both northwest of Kreminna). While a Russian military blogger claimed further advances southwest of Ivanivka, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces also continued attacking near Terny and Zarichne during this period.

Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia

Siversk

Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but failed to advance. Luhansk Oblast Military Administrator Artem Lysohor shared footage showing unsuccessful Russian attacks using small fireteams of just two to four soldiers in the Siversk area.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar and nearby locations including Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Predtechyne but made no confirmed advances, despite claims of progress along Chervonoflotskyi Street. A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that while Russians have increased their use of armored vehicles in recent weeks, especially during poor weather, they continue to rely on small infantry group tactics.

Toretsk

Russian forces advanced in multiple areas of Toretsk capturing parts of Heroiv Chornobylia and Darhomyzhskoho streets in the northwest, and 3 Hirskyi and 4 Hirskyi streets in the north. While Russian sources claim to control 85% of Toretsk, independent assessment indicates they hold about 69.4% of the city. Russian forces also attacked near Krymske, northeast of Toretsk, and launched an armored assault toward Shcherbynivka to the southwest.

Pokrovsk

Russian and Ukrainian forces made advances near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces advanced on the northwestern outskirts of Vozdvyzhenka, while Russian forces gained ground northeast of Vovkove. Russia confirmed its control of Dachenske, which it had actually captured on December 22. Russian forces attacked multiple locations in the area, including Pokrovsk, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Solone, Novovasylivka, Novoyeliyzavetivka, and Yasenove.

Ukraine’s Ground Forces commander Mykhailo Drapatyi has confirmed serious problems within the French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Mechanized Brigade operating near Pokrovsk, including high desertion rates with approximately 1,700 of the 5,800 intended troops going AWOL before combat and fewer than 2,000 receiving training in France, while lacking critical equipment like drones and electronic warfare tools and facing experience gaps with only 51 of 1,924 soldiers having more than a year of service. Meanwhile, the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade operates near Vozdvyzhenka alongside the “Maxim Krivonos” volunteer unit, which is reportedly composed of former Ukrainian soldiers who switched sides, though Drapatyi stated the military is working to address the problems and improve the brigade’s effectiveness.

Kurakhove

Russian forces claimed to have captured Kurakhove with elements of their 5th and 110th motorized rifle brigades reportedly taking the city, while Ukrainian Khortytsia Group spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov reported that fighting was still ongoing in the city that morning, with Russia claiming to have defeated 15,000 Ukrainian troops and destroyed significant military equipment there. Russian sources also claimed partial control of the Kurakhivske Thermal Power Plant west of Kurakhove, with battles continuing around its administrative buildings and pipe factory, and Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Dachne, Kostiantynopil, and Zelenivka, while Ukraine reports repelling 27 assaults in these areas.

The Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState indicates Kurakhove is mostly under Russian control, with forces moving westward toward Dachne, and if verified, Kurakhove would be Russia’s first major capture of 2025, following their 2024 takeovers of Avdiivka and Vuhledar, as Russian forces are now targeting Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub, as part of their campaign to control all of Donetsk Oblast.

Velyka Novosilka

Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka, specifically near Novyi Komar, but failed to make confirmed advances. According to Ukrainian official Trehubov, Russian forces are increasingly using armored vehicles in the Vremivka area due to the open terrain. Russian sources claim they are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in Neskuchne, southwest of Velyka Novosilka, and suggest capturing Velyka Novosilka as their next priority to free up forces for redeployment to other areas like Pokrovsk or Zaporizhia.

Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces launched attacks near Novodanylivka, north of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast but failed to gain ground. A Russian military blogger reported that Russian forces successfully defended against two Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhia region.

Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

Russian forces launched limited attacks in the Dnipro area without gaining territory. Ukraine’s Southern Command reported that Russian troops are trying to establish a foothold on islands in the Dnipro River Delta.

Ukraine News

Russia launched a large-scale assault on Ukraine using two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 128 drones, including Shaheds, from multiple locations including Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and the Oryol and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted both missiles and 79 drones across eleven oblasts, while 49 drones were lost. While no direct hits were reported, falling debris caused damage to buildings and infrastructure in Chernihiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Kyiv oblasts. Railway operations in Kyiv Oblast were temporarily disrupted but have since resumed.

President Zelensky strongly criticized the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which required Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., UK, Russia, China, and France. He revealed that Ukraine sought help three times since Russia’s 2014 aggression but received no response from any signatory nations. Zelensky called for the imprisonment of those who pressured Ukraine into signing the agreement, particularly citing pressure from the U.S. and Russia. He emphasized that the memorandum has been ineffective during Russia’s aggression, stating that “mere signatures” and “promises are not enough for security.”

President Zelensky expressed uncertainty about running for a second term, noting that elections can only resume after martial law ends, as they’re currently constitutionally prohibited during wartime.

Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets announced a preliminary agreement with Russia for regular prisoner of war exchanges in 2025, including both military and civilian prisoners. Priority will be given to those who are seriously ill or wounded, followed by those held longest in captivity. This development follows a major prisoner exchange on December 30, 2024, which freed 189 captives, including defenders of Azovstal, Mariupol, the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, and Snake Island. Russia’s willingness to participate comes after previously refusing exchanges before Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast operations in August 2024, which resulted in numerous Russian prisoners. In 2024, Ukraine has already freed 1,358 people through 11 exchanges. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began, Ukraine has secured the release of 3,956 people in total.

President Zelensky revealed that Belarus’ President Lukashenko apologized shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, claiming Putin launched missiles from Belarus without his permission. However, Lukashenko’s spokesperson Natalia Eismont denied any apology occurred, stating the only contact between the leaders was a phone call prompted by Lukashenko’s son Nikolai’s “emotional reaction” to the invasion. While Belarus hasn’t directly fought in the war, it has allowed Russia to use its territory for military operations, hosts Russian nuclear weapons, and reportedly permitted a Russian torture chamber in Naroulia where Ukrainian POWs and civilians were held.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claims to have prevented a planned terrorist attack against a military facility in Kyiv Oblast, where Russian agents allegedly recruited a 16-year-old boy to plant explosives in December 2024. The plot involved four suspects working under a Russian handler, with the boy being unaware that the remote detonation would have killed him. Two residents of Vinnytsia Oblast manufactured the weapons, while a 19-year-old man delivered the explosives and military uniform to the minor. All suspects have been detained and could face life imprisonment if convicted. This incident adds to repeated accusations of Russia recruiting underage Ukrainians for sabotage operations against Ukrainian military targets.

Innocent Victims Of War

The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)

DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 8

A Russian drone attack on a bus in Kherson, Ukraine, killed Volodymyr Shum, a 50-year-old city council employee, and injured eight others. The wounded, including seven women and one man, were taken to the hospital for treatment of blast injuries.

A bus with the door open

Description automatically generatedA Russian drone hit a bus in Kherson killing one person and injuring six others. (Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin / Telegram)

Ukraine’s Allies

Rheinmetall, the German arms manufacturer, will supply Ukraine with 180,000 rounds of 35 mm ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns, with deliveries starting in 2026. The December 2024 order, funded by Germany, supports the 55 Gepard systems previously sent to Ukraine. The Gepard has proven effective against Russian aircraft and drones, particularly Shahed drones. Germany has become Ukraine’s second-largest military aid provider after the United States, marking a significant shift from its initially hesitant response to Russia’s invasion.

Russia News

An unexpected meeting occurred between Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz commander Apty Alaudinov and leaders of the far-right Rusich Group, including self-declared Nazi Alexei Milchakov. Despite their ideological differences, both leaders promoted a message of Russian unity and ethnic harmony. Alaudinov expressed support for Russian nationalists who don’t claim ethnic superiority, while acknowledging their “common enemy” and goals in Ukraine. This meeting represents a notable shift, as Rusich had previously criticized other groups for joining Akhmat Spetsnaz. The meeting appears to align with President Putin’s efforts to portray Russia as an ethnically and religiously harmonious society while managing demands from ultranationalist groups.

Russian weapons manufacturer Degtyaryev Plant has filed a second lawsuit against Russia’s Defense Ministry for 100 million rubles ($930,000). This follows their successful December 2024 lawsuit where they won a similar amount. The legal actions come amid recent arrests of high-ranking Defense Ministry officials on corruption charges related to procurement and logistics.

Russian War Losses (Today/Total)

Troops +1970troops

800010

Tanks +10tanks

9710

Artillery +45artillery

21710

Arm. Veh. +25armd-veh

20189

Aircraft aircrafts

369

Helihelicopters

331

Shipsships

28

Source Material

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org

The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com

Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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