Summary of the Day:
Ukrainian forces reported significant advances in Kursk Oblast, marking a notable shift in the region’s military dynamics. During these operations, they captured the first North Korean prisoners of war, with one soldier carrying a Russian military registration card and claiming he believed he was attending a training exercise rather than deploying to combat.
North Korean forces continue to deploy large assault groups despite suffering heavy losses from Ukrainian drone strikes. In December, they launched an attack with 400-500 personnel, outnumbering Ukrainian defenders six-to-one. President Zelensky reported approximately 3,800 North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast – roughly one-third of their 12,000 troops in the area.
Meanwhile, Russian President Putin maintains his pre-war demands in any potential peace negotiations, insisting on preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership and forcing NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe. These demands mirror his December 2021 ultimatum, which sought to significantly restrict NATO’s presence and operations in the region.
In a separate development, Ukrainian forces may have conducted a drone strike against the Tanevo plant at the Tatarstan Oil Refinery Complex in Nizhnekamsk. While Russian opposition media reported evacuations and smoke, local authorities denied any fire, attributing visible effects to planned equipment changes. The nearby Nizhnekamsk Airport suspended operations amid general drone threats in the region.
Picture of the Day:
A woman with a child walks along the street after Russian shelling in Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. (Liubov Yemets / Gwara Media / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria is facing an energy crisis after Russia’s Gazprom halted gas deliveries on January 1, following Ukraine’s refusal to extend a transit agreement. While Transnistrian authorities announced reduced rolling blackouts from eight to three hours due to energy-saving measures, the crisis has forced factory closures and threatens industrial collapse. Moldova’s central government blames Russia for weaponizing energy supplies, with spokesperson Daniel Voda stating Moscow is using people as hostages. This situation highlights Russia’s continued use of energy as a geopolitical tool, potentially destabilizing the region and increasing tensions between Moldova and its Russian-backed separatist region. Despite offers of assistance from Moldova’s central government, Transnistrian leadership claims no formal proposals have been received.
A disabled Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker, Eventin, carrying 99,000 tons of oil, is being towed to safety in the Baltic Sea by German authorities. The Panamanian-flagged vessel, part of Russia’s fleet used to evade sanctions, lost power on January 10 near Rügen island. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized Russia for endangering European security with “dilapidated oil tankers.” This situation highlights the broader environmental threats posed by Russia’s attempts to circumvent international sanctions, following other environmental disasters like the Nova Kakhovka Dam destruction in June 2023.
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson emphasized that Russia must accept it is no longer an empire. Johnson, a strong Ukraine supporter during his 2019-2022 tenure, criticized Russia’s “archaic and barbaric” war and called for Ukraine’s NATO membership. He stressed that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and other former territories are independent nations, not part of a Russian empire.
The Path to Peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stance on potential peace talks regarding Ukraine and NATO remains consistent with his pre-war December 2021 ultimatum, demanding the prevention of Ukraine’s NATO membership, forcing NATO’s withdrawal from Eastern Europe, restricting NATO military activities in the region, and limiting US missile deployments. Despite the Kremlin stating readiness for talks without preconditions and prior claims that NATO expansion drove the invasion (though NATO had not significantly expanded in Eastern Europe or advanced Ukraine’s membership between 2008 and 2022), analysts note that meaningful peace is unlikely while Putin maintains these maximalist demands for Ukraine’s capitulation and NATO’s weakening. While Trump has expressed willingness to meet with Putin after his January 20 inauguration to discuss ending the war, Russia has already rejected an initial proposal that would freeze front lines and delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years, as Ukraine maintains that NATO membership remains its best security guarantee against future Russian aggression.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Latvian volunteer Edgars Platonovs, 41, was killed on December 25 while fighting for Ukraine’s International Legion near Novoyehorivka, Luhansk Oblast. The Latvian Armed Forces confirmed his death on January 10. Platonovs, who had no prior military experience, was remembered by his family as a caring and principled person. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics expressed condolences and honored Platonovs’ sacrifice in defending Ukraine’s freedom.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces made recent advances near Pogrebki in the Kursk Oblast amid ongoing combat. Fighting continues around several settlements including Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Makhnovka. While Russian sources claimed some territorial gains, including in Russkoye Porechnoye, these claims remain unverified. Weather conditions are improving for drone operations in the region, though muddy ground continues to limit major movements until a freeze occurs.
A Ukrainian soldier told the Washington Post that Russian forces launched coordinated attacks from multiple directions in Kursk Oblast, gaining some ground following Ukraine’s recent offensive operations in the area. While Russian forces briefly crossed the international border in several locations, Ukrainian forces reportedly recaptured these positions.
Ukrainian forces have captured two North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, marking the first North Korean prisoners of war in the conflict, with one soldier captured by Ukrainian Special Operations Forces on January 9 and another by Airborne Assault Forces on an unspecified date. The prisoners, one born in 2005 and another in 1999, were wounded and received medical care before being transferred to the Security Service of Ukraine in Kyiv, with one suffering a broken leg; due to language barriers, as they speak neither English, Russian, nor Ukrainian, Ukrainian authorities are working with South Korean intelligence to communicate with the POWs. One prisoner carried a Russian military registration card and revealed he was sent to Russia in November believing it was for training, only to be deployed into combat.
According to Ukrainian officials, North Korea has deployed around 12,000 troops in Kursk Oblast, where they began participating in combat operations in late 2024, with President Zelensky noting that Russian or North Korean forces typically kill wounded North Korean personnel to hide their involvement in the war. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called this military cooperation between Russia and North Korea a sign of Moscow’s desperation, while North Korean casualties since December are disputed, with estimates ranging from over 1,000 (according to Austin) to 4,000 (according to Zelensky); neither Russia nor North Korea has commented on these reports, though military cooperation between the two countries has increased since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast are using large-scale assault tactics despite heavy losses from Ukrainian drone strikes. According to the Washington Post, North Korean troops attack in large groups with Russian artillery and drone support, while Russian forces typically operate in smaller units. In December 2024, North Koreans launched an assault with 400-500 personnel, outnumbering Ukrainian defenders six-to-one. Communication problems between Russian and North Korean forces are reportedly hampering their effectiveness. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast – about one-third of their 12,000 troops in the area. This includes the loss of an entire battalion near Makhnovka in early January. Western officials noted that North Korean forces suffered approximately 1,000 casualties in just one week in late December 2024.
A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck the Taneko oil refinery at the Tatarstan Oil Refinery Complex in Nizhnekamsk, Republic of Tatarstan, located 1,300 kilometers from Ukraine’s border, with Ukrainian official Andrii Kovalenko confirming the strike and noting the refinery’s importance in supplying fuel to Russian military operations; while Russian opposition media reported evacuations and smoke from the facility, which processes over 16 million tons of oil annually, local authorities denied any fire, claiming the visible glow came from planned equipment changes. The Nizhnekamsk Airport suspended operations and authorities issued a drone threat warning, though details of the incident remain unclear, marking the second attack on the facility following a previous drone strike in spring 2024.
Russia claims it intercepted 85 Ukrainian drones overnight with one drone hitting apartment buildings in Kotovsk, Russia, causing minor injuries to three people. The Russian Defense Ministry reported drone interceptions across multiple regions, including 31 over the Black Sea, 16 over Voronezh Oblast and Krasnodar Krai, and others over various locations including Crimea. Ukraine, which rarely confirms such attacks, has been using domestically produced drones to target Russian military sites, airfields, and oil refineries, with their drones reportedly capable of reaching targets up to 2,000 kilometers away.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacking near Kharkiv, particularly around Vovchansk and Starytsya, but made no confirmed advances. A Ukrainian service member reported that Russian forces slightly pulled back in Vovchansk, while Ukrainian forces maintain positions north of the Vovcha River. The Russians are attacking in small groups of 2-3 soldiers, supported by artillery and FPV drones.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Kupyansk direction without confirmed advances. While Russian Lt. Col. Marochko claimed advances near Dvorichna north of Kupyansk, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces conducted attacks around several settlements including Holubivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, and Stepova Novoselivka.
Borova
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Borova without confirmed advances. While a Russian source claimed a 1-kilometer advance west of Makiivka, this remains unverified. Russian forces attacked multiple settlements including Lozova, Zahryzove, Pishchane, Zelenyi Hai, Pershotravneve, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Hrekivka.
Lyman
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman without confirmed advances. They attacked positions near Terny, Zarichne, and in the Serebryanske forest area. According to Ukrainian military observer Mashovets, Russian units are operating near Ivanivka but have failed to break through to Kolodyazi.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka (northeast of Siversk) without new advances. While Ukrainian military observer Mashovets reported Russian forces captured Hryhorivka, this advance occurred earlier.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks on Chasiv Yar targeting multiple areas including Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Predtechyne. While Russian sources claim to control 20% of the central Refractory Plant and parts of northern Chasiv Yar, these advances have not been confirmed. Russian forces appear to be attempting to encircle the settlement by bypassing its center and disrupting Ukrainian supply lines.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked around Toretsk, including operations near Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka. While Russian sources claim to have cleared most of Toretsk and advanced in southern Petrivka, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued attacks around Pokrovsk. While Russian sources claim to have captured Baranivka, Yasenove, and made advances near Novoyeliyzavetivka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces attacked numerous settlements including Nova Poltavka, Tarasivka, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, and others in multiple directions around Pokrovsk. They are reportedly using small mobile groups on ATVs due to poor weather conditions. Russian forces have severely damaged Pokrovsk’s infrastructure, destroying approximately 90% of its energy infrastructure and 70% of civilian buildings by late 2024.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces attacked around Kurakhove. While Russian sources claim advances west of Slovyanka and east of Andriivka, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces conducted assaults near several settlements including Dachne, Zelenivka, Rozlyv, Yantarne, and Kostiantynopil.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked around Velyka Novosilka. While Russian sources claim to have captured Neskuchne and advanced toward Novosilka, these claims remain unconfirmed. Russian forces conducted attacks near Rozdolne and Vremivka, using infantry assaults due to poor weather limiting vehicle and drone operations. Russian forces are reportedly using long-range fiber-optic drones with 15-20 kilometer ranges in the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces had no offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. A Russian military blogger reported that Ukrainian forces attacked near the settlement of Kamyanske, located northwest of Robotyne, on January 10.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dnipro area without making confirmed advances.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 74 Shahed drones against Ukraine from multiple locations including Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Oryol, and Bryansk. Ukrainian forces intercepted 47 drones across eleven oblasts, while 27 decoy drones were neutralized by electronic warfare. The attacks damaged residential and farm buildings in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s Samarivskyi Raion, struck a residential building in Chernihiv Oblast’s Prylutskyi Raion, and hit civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia City.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico criticized Ukraine and President Zelensky calling Ukraine an unreliable partner and accusing Zelensky of blackmailing European leaders for support.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 2 INJURIES: 12
Russian attacks in the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injured three men. Two men, ages 46 and 74, were hurt during daytime drone and artillery strikes, while a 40-year-old man was injured in an overnight attack.
A Russian attack on the front-line town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast resulted in one civilian death and one injury.
Russian strikes in Kherson Oblast injured two people and damaged 21 houses.
Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast killed one person and injured six others. In Zaporizhzhia city, a 39-year-old man and a 56-year-old woman were hospitalized after an evening attack. A Russian drone strike on a car in Primorske village killed a 47-year-old woman and injured four people: two men (ages 46 and 60) and two women (ages 49 and 52).
The aftermath of Russian attacks against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Serhii Lysak/Telegram)
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Nearly 1,300 Ukrainians from various European countries have applied to join the newly formed Ukrainian Legion based in Poland. The volunteer military unit, established in July 2024, began recruiting at its first center in Lublin, Poland, last October. The second group of volunteers, including women in medical and communications roles, recently signed contracts. The initiative aims to address Ukraine’s military manpower shortages by allowing Ukrainians living abroad to serve while maintaining their foreign residency, circumventing the martial law restrictions that prevent fighting-age men from leaving Ukraine.
Ukrainian police conducted 600 simultaneous raids across the country on January 10, uncovering nearly 50 schemes helping draft-age men illegally leave Ukraine. Sixty suspects, including government officials, hospital managers, and military officers, were charged for activities such as forging documents and helping men cross borders illegally. The schemes charged between $5,000 and $22,000 per person. The scale of the problem is significant, with reports indicating 11,000 Ukrainian men illegally entered Romania and 23,500 entered Moldova since Russia’s 2022 invasion. These illegal departures are worsening Ukraine’s military manpower shortages as it faces Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast. Suspects face up to nine years in prison, property confiscation, and bans from official positions.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine and Italy are discussing the purchase of Italian air defense systems and ammunition using profits from frozen Russian assets. Deputy Defense Minister Anatolii Klochko discussed these plans following talks with Italian officials. The purchases would be funded through a $50 billion G7 loan program backed by profits from approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, allowing Ukraine to acquire weapons without relying on direct Western aid.
President Joe Biden expressed hope that U.S. support for Ukraine will continue after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20. Biden, who provided over $170 billion in assistance to Ukraine during his presidency, including $60 billion in military aid, stated he did everything possible to help Ukraine defend its independence. Just before leaving office, his administration announced a $500 million military assistance package and new sanctions against Russia’s oil industry. While Trump has criticized Ukraine aid, he indicated he wouldn’t abandon Ukraine but might use aid as leverage for peace talks. Biden believes Ukraine can prevail if European support remains unified, citing Russia’s high casualties (over 600,000 dead or wounded) and Putin’s domestic economic and political challenges. The Biden administration aims to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position before leaving office.
The European Commission will begin drafting its 16th sanctions package against Russia on January 14, aiming for approval by February 24, 2024 – the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Poland, as EU president, supports this timeline. The process requires unanimous approval from all EU members, though Slovakia and Hungary are expected to oppose the measures. This follows December’s sanctions package which targeted 54 individuals and 30 organizations from Russia, China, and North Korea, including companies helping Russia sell oil.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities forcibly deported over 3,300 Ukrainian children from occupied Kherson Oblast to camps in Russia’s Vologda and Tula regions in 2024, according to Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lyubinets. Another 400 schoolchildren from occupied Donetsk Oblast were sent to Moscow as part of a Kremlin-sponsored cultural program. President Zelensky reported that Ukraine managed to secure the return of 449 children from Russian-controlled territories in 2024.
Russia News
Russia denounced new U.S. sanctions against its energy sector vowing to continue major oil and gas projects despite the measures. The sanctions, targeting companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas (which together produce over 1 million barrels of oil daily), also blacklisted 183 vessels involved in transporting Russian oil. These represent the most extensive U.S. measures yet against Russia’s energy revenue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the sanctions, saying reduced Russian oil revenue would help restore peace. The Biden administration designed these sanctions to give both Ukraine and incoming President Trump leverage in future peace negotiations.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1750
808250 |
Tanks +5
9756 |
Artillery +22
21839 |
Arm. Veh. +18
20289 |
Aircraft 
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com