Summary of the Day:
Russian forces achieved significant territorial gains cutting two major highways near Pokrovsk (the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka and T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova) as part of their strategy to encircle Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian troops captured positions near Myrne and seized control of Pishchane. The Russians continued attacks across multiple settlements surrounding Pokrovsk, indicating a concentrated effort to isolate the region.
Russian forces also advanced in other directions including Kharkiv, Borova, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Their strategy appears focused on cutting Ukrainian supply lines and forcing a northward withdrawal from key urban areas, rather than engaging in direct urban combat. Meanwhile, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported approximately 3,000 North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast, highlighting the international dimension of the conflict.
In economic developments, Russian state energy corporation Gazprom announced plans to reduce its central office staff in St. Petersburg by 40%, from 4,100 to 2,500 employees. This significant downsizing, proposed by Deputy CEO Elena Ilyukhina to CEO Alexei Miller, reflects growing concerns about the war’s impact on Russia’s gas industry, particularly following reduced exports to Europe and Ukraine’s decision not to renew its gas transit contract.
Picture of the Day:
Ukrainian military veterans work out in a gym in Kyiv, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Tetiana Dzhafarova / AFP via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Sweden is strengthening NATO’s defense capabilities in the Baltic Sea by contributing three warships and surveillance aircraft following recent damage to undersea infrastructure. This deployment, Sweden’s first as a NATO member, comes after several suspicious incidents including damage to the EstLink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia, and cuts to telecommunications cables connecting Sweden, Lithuania, Finland, and Germany. The situation has raised concerns about potential Russian sabotage, particularly after Finnish authorities seized a suspected Russian “shadow fleet” vessel believed responsible for the EstLink 2 damage. This escalation of infrastructure targeting in the Baltic Sea poses a significant threat to regional stability and communication networks, highlighting growing tensions between NATO and Russia in the region.
Russia and Iran will sign a strategic partnership agreement on January 17, 2025, during Iranian President Pezeshkian’s visit to Russia. The agreement will focus on transport, energy, defense, and regional cooperation, including the North-South Transport Corridor project. This strengthens an already growing alliance – Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed drones and ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine, and Russia is now producing its own version of these drones. Their partnership represents a significant challenge to Western-led global order, though it recently faced setbacks with the fall of their ally Assad in Syria. The alliance mirrors Russia’s similar agreement with North Korea, signed in June 2024, which has resulted in North Korean troops supporting Russian forces against Ukraine.
Poland denied blocking airspace access to a Slovak delegation heading to Moscow on January 12, stating the Slovaks submitted incomplete documentation. The delegation, led by far-right lawmaker Andrej Danko and Tibor Gaspar, traveled to Moscow to discuss Russian gas supplies to Slovakia following Ukraine’s decision to halt Russian gas transit through its territory. The visit highlights ongoing tensions as Slovakia’s Prime Minister Fico has threatened to cut support to Ukraine over the gas transit issue. This situation underscores the continuing challenge of European energy dependence on Russia, as countries like Slovakia and Hungary remain heavily reliant on Russian gas despite EU efforts to reduce Russian fossil fuel imports following the invasion of Ukraine.
The Path to Peace
President Zelensky and French President Macron discussed the potential deployment of peacekeeping troops to Ukraine during a phone call. Their conversation included plans for implementing a French initiative to deploy military contingents in Ukraine, as European nations prepare for a larger role in Ukraine’s defense after U.S. President-elect Trump takes office. Both leaders agreed to meet soon to further discuss security guarantees. U.K. Prime Minister Starmer is also expected to visit Ukraine to discuss peacekeeping force deployment.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces conducted a precision strike on a Russian command post in southeastern Novohrodivka, hitting the command center of Russia’s 2nd Combined Arms Army, as confirmed by video evidence and the Ukrainian General Staff’s report. This follows earlier successful strikes on Russian command posts in Khartsyzk and Svitlodarsk in the Donetsk region, with these precision attacks disrupting Russian logistics and command capabilities.
A Russian military blogger reported that Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge with 43 drones overnight between January 10-11, but claimed Russian forces intercepted all drones. Ukrainian partisans in Crimea noted that Russia has recently added S-400 air defense systems and radar installations at the Hvardiske Airfield near Simferopol in occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) successfully defended against a North Korean infantry assault in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, eliminating 17 DPRK soldiers and one additional soldier who died by self-detonated grenade in battles that lasted from morning until nightfall. During this same period, Russian forces attacked several settlements around Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, including Pogrebki, Kruglenkoye, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Makhnovka, though they made no confirmed advances despite fighting throughout the day.
According to South Korea’s intelligence service, approximately 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been involved in fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded, largely due to Russian forces deploying them without proper support. North Korean troops have reportedly been ordered to commit suicide rather than face capture. President Zelensky has offered to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian POWs held in Russia, while also suggesting alternatives for those who don’t wish to return to North Korea. When asked about Ukraine’s capture of North Korean soldiers, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment, stating “We cannot comment in any way, we do not know what is true there.” Pyongyang has emerged as Moscow’s primary ally in the conflict, which has continued for nearly three years.
A Russian drone strike in the Kursk region accidentally destroyed a North Korean surface-to-air missile (SAM) system after mistaking it for Western equipment. The incident was first reported by a pro-Kremlin military blogger who claimed it was a successful hit on Ukrainian forces. The SAM system, first unveiled during a North Korean parade in 2020, was mounted on a 10-wheeled tractor and designed to protect against aerial threats. This friendly-fire incident highlights coordination problems between Russian forces and their North Korean allies and raises questions about Russia’s ability to properly identify and protect allied equipment on the battlefield. The loss of equipment and high casualties among North Korean troops in “meat grinder” assaults could potentially strain Moscow-Pyongyang relations.
Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that Ukrainian drones attempted to attack the Russkaya compressor station of the Russian-Turkish Turk Stream gas pipeline in Gai-Kodzor, Krasnodar Krai. While Russia claims they intercepted all nine drones and that falling debris only caused minor damage without disrupting operations, these claims cannot be independently verified.
A Russian chemical plant in Bryansk Oblast was reportedly damaged during an aerial attack. Russian officials reported air defense units were responding to drone attacks, while the Astra Telegram channel claimed the Bryansk chemical plant was struck, possibly by an ATACMS missile. The plant, which produces gunpowder and explosives for Russian artillery ammunition and missiles, was previously damaged in November. Reports also mentioned explosions at the “Kremniy El” microelectronics plant, which makes components for Russian defense systems, though these claims could not be independently verified.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made a small advance northeast of Kharkiv City near Tykhe. While Russian sources claimed advances within Vovchansk, these remain unconfirmed. Russian forces continued attacks near the border at Kozacha Lopan and Vovchansk. A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that Russians have reduced their attack tempo by half and are avoiding using armored vehicles due to drone threats, instead relying on waves of poorly trained soldiers followed by better-trained troops.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacks near Kupyansk without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed to have expanded their position across the Oskil River near Dvorichna and allegedly hold half the town, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces attacked near Dvorichna, Zapadne, Kindrashivka, and Petropavlivka. A Ukrainian commander reported that Russians are trying to use poor weather conditions to cross the Oskil River using small boats and rafts, while building up forces near Dvorichna and Masyutivka. Russian forces are avoiding vehicle use due to soft ground conditions and are employing massive drone strikes, sometimes using 30-40 drones on a single target, with GRU special forces drone operators reportedly active in the area.
Borova
Russian forces advanced west of Makiivka (southeast of Borova) confirmed by visual evidence. They conducted attacks northeast of Borova near Lozova, Zeleny Hai, and Pishchane; east of Borova near Pershotravne, Kopanky, and toward Shyikivka; and southeast of Borova near Makiivka, Novoserhiivka, and Tverdokhlibove. Russian sources claim their forces are clearing Ukrainian positions in Zahryzove and Zeleny Hai and have established a crossing over the Oskil River between Kruhlyakivka and Senkove, though these claims remain unconfirmed.
Lyman
Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claimed to have advanced toward Kolodyazi and are attempting to establish a position across the Zherebets River, these claims remain unverified. Russian forces attacked near Terny and Zarichne. A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that Russian forces typically transport troops by vehicle past the first defensive line before deploying infantry to reinforce and secure positions. The commander noted equal artillery capabilities in their area and limited Russian drone usage.
Bottom of Form
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk, but failed to make any confirmed advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Chasiv Yar, though no confirmed advances were made. Russian military bloggers claimed their forces captured parts of the Pivnichnyi Microraion and the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar, as well as most of the Stupky-Holubovskyi forest to the south. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counterattacks in the area. However, these Russian claims remain unverified.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked near Toretsk without confirmed advances. While Russian sources claim to control about 94% of Toretsk, independent assessment shows Russian forces hold about 81.4% of the settlement. Ukrainian military observers confirm Russian forces hold most of central Toretsk, though Ukrainian forces maintain positions in parts of Toretsk and nearby Krymske. Russian operations continued around Toretsk, Krymske, and near Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces have made significant advances near Pokrovsk, cutting two major highways: the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova highway. Recent footage shows Russian forces captured positions near Myrne and likely seized control of Solone. The Russian military has deployed multiple brigades in the area. These moves appear to be part of a larger strategy to encircle the settlements of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Russian forces made additional advances southwest of Pokrovsk capturing the settlement of Pishchane. Russian forces continued attacks in multiple directions around Pokrovsk, targeting settlements including Baranivka, Zelene Pole, Nova Poltavka, Tarasivka, Novotoretske, Novooleksandrivka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Zelene, Shevchenko, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novovasylivka, Novoandriivka, Sribne, Yasenove, and Kotlyne.
Russian forces are targeting key supply routes into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, likely aiming to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw northward by cutting off their ability to resupply and move troops. By controlling two of the three main east-west ground supply lines (the T-0405 and T-0406 highways), Russian forces appear to be attempting to avoid direct urban combat in these towns. Their strategy seems focused on isolating these settlements to compel a Ukrainian withdrawal, rather than launching costly direct assaults through the urban areas.
Kurakhove Region
Russian forces advanced near Kurakhove with confirmed progress southeast of Dachne. While Russian sources claimed advances northeast of Yantarne, these remain unverified. Russian forces continued attacks around Kurakhove and nearby settlements including Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Shevchenko, Dachne, and Yantarne. Multiple Russian military units are reportedly operating in the area, including special forces and motorized rifle divisions.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced near Velyka Novosilka reaching the east bank of the Mokri Yaly River near Novyi Komar and likely capturing Neskuchne, though some Russian sources dispute this claim. Ukrainian military observers report Russian forces are close to encircling Vremivka and Velyka Novosilka from multiple directions, suggesting a major offensive may be imminent. Fighting continues near Vremivka, Rivnopil, and Neskuchne, with various Russian military units involved in operations throughout the area.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Recent fighting in western Zaporizhia Oblast continued with no changes to the front line. Ukrainian forces reported successfully destroying a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system in the area earlier this month. Russian forces are reportedly conducting small-group reconnaissance operations in the region, with drone units actively involved.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched limited ground attacks in the Dnipro direction but failed to gain any territory.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched 110 Shahed and other drones from multiple locations including Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Oryol, and Bryansk. Ukrainian forces intercepted 78 drones across twelve regions, while 31 decoy drones were neutralized by electronic warfare. Falling debris from downed drones damaged civilian infrastructure including a children’s health center in Sumy City, a medical facility in Kyiv Oblast, and a critical infrastructure site in Putyvlskyi Hromada, along with homes and buildings in Sumy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Zaporizhia regions.
President Zelensky signed a decree imposing sanctions on 140 Russian financial sector entities, while also introducing a draft law to criminalize sanctions evasion. This action aligns with recent U.S. and U.K. sanctions targeting Russia’s oil industry, including restrictions on nearly 200 vessels and various Russian oil companies. The draft law, based on international standards, will be submitted to Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, for approval.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico proposed a meeting with President Zelensky in Slovakia to discuss the Russian gas transit situation. When Zelensky responded by inviting Fico to Kyiv instead, Fico declined to escalate tensions and suggested meeting near the Ukrainian border. The dispute centers around Fico’s threats to limit aid and cut electricity supplies to Ukraine. While Ukraine had offered Slovakia assistance during this transition period, Fico had rejected it. The situation reflects broader tensions, as Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban maintain friendly ties with Putin despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and both countries remain heavily dependent on Russian gas despite EU efforts to reduce such reliance.
The first exhumation of Polish victims from the Volyn tragedy will begin in April 2025 in Ukraine’s Ternopil Oblast, at the former village of Puzhnyky. This follows an agreement between Ukraine and Poland to address the events of 1943, when tens of thousands of Poles were killed by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army during Nazi occupation, with thousands of Ukrainians also killed in retaliatory actions. The Freedom and Democracy Foundation, which discovered the grave site, will work with Polish experts to identify the remains through genetic testing. This initiative marks an important step in Polish-Ukrainian reconciliation, following recent discussions between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Tusk.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 17
Russian attacks in Sumy Oblast led to multiple incidents: a Shahed drone strike caused a fire at a children’s health center in Sumy city, an FPV drone attack in the Myropilska community injured three civilians and damaged a bus, and artillery shelling in the Seredyna-Buda community injured one civilian and set fire to a residential building.
Russian forces attacked Kherson Oblast targeting critical infrastructure, social facilities, and residential areas, resulting in 10 civilian injuries.
Russian forces attacked Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in one person being injured.
Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia city, causing blast and limb injuries to two civilians.
In the city of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, Russian shelling near a civilian business killed a 70-year-old man.
Ukraine Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced that foreign companies can now participate in modernizing military equipment for Ukrainian Armed Forces, including aircraft, ships, and components. The initiative allows companies with special permits to transfer military technology and export defense goods, aiming to enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities through Western technologies. Ukraine has allocated Hr 55 billion ($1.3 billion) for weapons production in its 2025 budget as part of its ongoing efforts to modernize defense infrastructure.
Ukraine’s Allies
The European Union announced an additional 140 million euros in humanitarian aid for Ukraine, plus 8 million euros for Moldova to support Ukrainian refugees. This brings the EU’s total humanitarian assistance to both countries since 2022 to over 1.1 billion euros. The funds will provide essential services including food, shelter, water, healthcare, and winter protection in war-affected regions of eastern and southern Ukraine. The announcement came during EU Crisis Management Commissioner Hadja Lahbib’s visit to Ukraine. Ukraine, which became an EU candidate in June 2022 and began accession negotiations in June 2024, could potentially join the EU by 2030, according to EU Ambassador Katarina Mathernova.
The U.K. will help finance Ukraine’s production of air defense systems and long-range weapons, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced after meeting with U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey in London.
Germany has delivered its first batch of RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, announced German Foreign Minister Boris Pistorius. Of the 54 howitzers promised, six will stay in Germany for training Ukrainian crews. The RCH 155 is a new weapons system that combines a GTK Boxer armored carrier with a PzH 2000 artillery turret, capable of firing 155mm shells up to 54 kilometers and reaching speeds over 100 kilometers per hour. Ukraine, which requested these weapons in July 2022, is the first country to receive them.
Lithuania is sending 4,500 drones worth 5 million euros to Ukraine, announced Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene. This delivery follows delays in previous drone shipments due to bureaucratic issues. Lithuania has streamlined its procedures for transferring state assets to ensure faster aid delivery.
Six European nations – Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia – have urged the European Commission to lower the G7’s $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil. They argue that reducing the cap would limit Russia’s war funding capabilities without disrupting global oil markets. The current policy only allows Western companies to transport and insure Russian oil sold below the cap.
The Biden administration seeks to establish a strong foreign policy foundation regarding the Russia-Ukraine war before Trump takes office on January 20. Secretary of State Blinken and President Biden both emphasized their success in building a 50-nation coalition supporting Ukraine through military aid and sanctions against Russia. Biden highlighted his 2023 Kyiv visit and declared Putin has failed to achieve his strategic objectives, while urging Congress to maintain Ukraine support. Trump plans early communication with Putin and has pledged to end the war quickly, though his previous peace proposal – which included freezing front lines, delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership, and deploying European peacekeepers – was rejected by Moscow. Biden acknowledged uncertainty about future U.S. assistance under Trump, who has previously criticized U.S. military support for Ukraine.
Russia News
Russian authorities have reversed their commitment to fund anti-drone protection at 31 major airports, canceling plans to spend 11 billion rubles ($107 million) by 2028. The protection would have covered airports in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Sochi, and other major cities. Instead, individual airport management will now be responsible for their own drone defense systems, according to pro-Kremlin publication Vedomosti. This decision comes amid frequent operational disruptions at Russian airports due to Ukrainian drone strikes and may reflect Russia’s difficulty managing rising war costs in Ukraine.
Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy company, is planning to cut 1,600 jobs at its St. Petersburg central office, reducing staff from 4,100 to 2,500 employees. The proposal was submitted by Deputy CEO Elena Ilyukhina to CEO Alexei Miller in December, as reported by Russia’s 47News. These cuts come amid significant financial challenges following an 80% drop in European exports since 2021, Ukraine’s decision not to renew its gas transit contract, and Gazprom’s shares falling to their lowest level since 2009. While the company contributed $28 billion to the Russian government in 2023, the workforce reduction could help offset its annual salary expenditure of 50 billion rubles ($480 million). The EU has largely moved away from Russian gas, with most countries now relying on alternative sources and record LNG purchases.
Three oil tankers carrying over 2 million barrels of Russian crude are stranded off China’s coast following new U.S. sanctions announced January 10. The vessels – Huihai Pacific, Mermar, and Olia – are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to evade sanctions. China’s Shandong Port Group has banned U.S.-sanctioned tankers from its ports, forcing the ships to remain offshore. This development follows extensive U.S. and U.K. sanctions targeting 180 vessels in Russia’s shadow fleet, along with Russian oil companies and officials. The sanctions aim to reduce Russia’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine and have prompted Chinese financial institutions to reduce economic ties with Russia to avoid secondary sanctions.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
| Troops +1330
811090 |
Tanks +3
9767 |
Artillery +47
21923 |
Arm. Veh. +11
20326 |
Aircraft
369 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities have begun offering grants worth up to 7 million rubles ($68,126) to veterans of the Ukraine war to start agricultural businesses. This new benefit, which started January 1, appears to be part of Russia’s strategy to attract more military recruits.
Russia’s Allies
Russian military bloggers claim North Korea has provided Russia with air defense systems like Russia’s “Tor” system, now being deployed in Ukraine. In one reported incident, they claim Russian forces accidentally struck one of these North Korean systems with a drone after mistaking it for an enemy target. These claims cannot be independently verified.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has labeled Komi Daily, an independent media outlet, as a terrorist organization – the first time such a designation has been applied to media in Russia. The outlet, which covers culture and life in Russia’s Komi Republic and has criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, allegedly has ties to the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum, a movement seeking to break Russia into 41 autonomous states. Komi Daily denies these connections. The Supreme Court’s December ruling reinforces Russia’s ongoing suppression of independent journalism and dissenting voices, particularly those supporting regional independence or criticizing the government.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com