Summary of the Day:
President Zelensky emphasized the critical importance of US military aid, particularly for Patriot air-defense systems, while indicating Ukraine’s willingness to use its positions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast as leverage in future peace talks. In response, Russian officials attempted to suppress military blogger reporting about Ukrainian advances in the region, particularly around Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka.
Russia launched a significant attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure with 19 missiles and 124 drones, targeting a Naftogaz gas facility in Poltava Oblast and damaging infrastructure across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces intercepted 57 drones. In response, Ukrainian forces successfully struck the Saratov Oil Refinery and reportedly hit Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces reported advances near Toretsk while Russian forces made gains near multiple settlements including Borova, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Hulyaipole. Meanwhile, the Russian State Duma removed Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev from its Defense Committee following controversial statements, and Russian intelligence services claimed Ukraine was planning false-flag operations in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition figures abroad.
Picture of the Day:
Local teenagers slide across the ice of a frozen fountain in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast. The town is frequently bombed by Russian forces and is nearly deserted by its inhabitants. (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Chinese refiners are receiving discounted offers for Russian ESPO crude oil following new U.S. sanctions imposed in January 2024 that target Russian oil companies, tankers, and insurance firms. The sanctions have caused delivery costs of Russian oil to China to spike from $1.5 million to $7 million per shipment, leading China to temporarily halt purchases and seek alternative suppliers. While ESPO crude typically trades at a premium in Asian markets, it’s now being offered at significant discounts, though Chinese state-owned refiners remain hesitant to purchase due to sanctions risks. This development represents a significant disruption in Russia-China energy trade, potentially impacting Russia’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine through fossil fuel revenues.
Marc Fogel, a U.S. schoolteacher imprisoned in Russia since 2021 on drug charges, was released in a deal negotiated by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. Fogel, who was serving a 14-year sentence for possessing prescribed marijuana, was flown out of Moscow on Witkoff’s private plane in the first known visit of a U.S. official to Russia since 2021. While specific details of the exchange weren’t disclosed, U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz suggested the release signaled progress in Trump’s efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. This release follows Fogel’s recent “unjustly detained” classification by the U.S. government and comes after he was excluded from a previous prisoner swap that freed journalist Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan.
The Path to Peace
Former U.S. President Trump made controversial statements about Ukraine’s potential Russian sovereignty while emphasizing repayment for U.S. aid, claiming a tentative $500 billion rare earth minerals deal with Kyiv. Though Trump stated U.S. support exceeded $300 billion, official figures show Congress allocated approximately $170 billion since 2022, with President Zelensky noting less than half has reached Ukraine, while the EU and member states provided $145 billion in combined assistance. The Trump administration has temporarily halted development of a Ukraine peace plan to consult with European allies, with two key figures leading negotiations: Steve Witkoff, a real estate billionaire whose role emerged after negotiating American teacher Marc Fogel’s release from Russia, and official envoy Keith Kellogg. Witkoff has engaged with Putin’s allies and Middle Eastern contacts, while Kellogg will join Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference to meet President Zelensky, followed by a February 20 visit to Ukraine to present ceasefire options, aiming for resolution within 100 days of Trump’s inauguration. Diplomatic developments include Trump’s disclosed recent contact with Putin, breaking from previous isolation policies, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s meeting with U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy in Moscow—an unusually high-level exchange focusing on “foreign institutions’ activities,” though both countries’ embassies operate with restricted capacities and U.S. consular services in Russia remain largely suspended since 2021 due to Moscow’s staffing restrictions.
President Zelensky revealed in a Guardian interview that Ukraine may use its holdings in Russia’s Kursk Oblast as leverage in future peace negotiations to regain Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories. In response, Russia appears increasingly concerned about controlling information from this region, with Putin likely aiming to recapture Sudzha and other Ukrainian-held areas in Kursk before any peace talks begin to avoid territorial trade discussions.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Fighting persisted in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast salient with clashes reported in several settlements around Sudzha. Combat was reported northwest of Sudzha near Pogrebki, west near Sverdlikovo, and southeast near Makhnovka, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, and Fanaseyevka. Russian sources claimed advances near Sverdlikovo and Kurilovka, while Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted unsuccessful attacks near Russkoye Porechnoye and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Ukrainian forces successfully conducted a coordinated drone attack on Russia’s Saratov region, targeting both the Saratov Oil Refinery and Engels Airbase, marking the third strike on the refinery since November 2024. The attack, executed by Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, military intelligence (HUR), and Special Operations Forces, damaged the Rosneft facility—which has an annual capacity of 7 million tons and produces petroleum products for the Russian military—located approximately 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine’s border. While witnesses reported explosions and fire at the refinery, residents near Engels Airbase heard explosions and gunfire, following similar strikes on January 14 that caused a five-day fire at the Kristall oil depot. Russia claims it intercepted 40 Ukrainian drones, leading to the suspension of operations at several airports including those in Kazan, Kirov, Saratov, and Ulyanovsk. This strike is part of Ukraine’s broader strategy targeting Russian energy facilities, including recent hits on refineries in Ryazan and facilities in Tambov Oblast and Bryansk, which has contributed to a 9.1% decline in Russia’s seaborne petroleum exports in 2024, with significant drops in shipments through Baltic and Black Sea ports.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks near Kharkiv, particularly around Vovchansk, though without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reported slow progress near Lyptsi, north of Kharkiv, using drones to target Russian positions and supply lines to counter Russian artillery advantages.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces continued attacks in the Kupyansk direction targeting Kindrashivka to the north and Petropavlivka and Stepova Novoselivka to the east, though without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack near Dvorichna. Russian sources claimed unconfirmed advances west of Zapadne, near Doroshivka, and around Topoli near the international border.
Borova
Russian forces advanced near Borova conducting attacks at Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka to the northeast, Zeleny Hai, Novoyehorivka, and Kopanky to the east, and Novoserhiivka to the southeast. Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Zahryzove, while Russian forces made confirmed advances north of Makiivka.
Lyman
Russian forces advanced in the Lyman direction continuing attacks near Novolyubivka, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Ivanivka, and Terny. Ukrainian military confirmed Russian advances northwest of Ivanivka, while Russian sources claimed additional unconfirmed advances south of Ivanivka and around Yampolivka.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a rare Russian Smerch-2 anti-submarine rocket launcher in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast. The Soviet-era weapon, mounted on a Ural vehicle and hidden in nearby forests, was targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian drones. The Smerch-2, adopted by the Soviet Navy in 1961, was designed to combat submarines and torpedoes with its 12 radially arranged 213mm caliber barrels. This incident highlights Ukraine’s growing drone capabilities, with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov noting that over 200,000 domestically produced drones were delivered to front-line units in December alone.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked in the Siversk direction targeting Serebryanka to the north, Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka to the northeast, and Verkhnokamyanske to the east, but made no advances.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks around Chasiv Yar targeting the settlement itself along with nearby Vasyukivka and Bila Hora, though no confirmed advances were made. Russian troops in the area, reportedly consisting of volunteers and convict recruits, are using armored vehicles to move infantry into basement positions while operating in multiple small groups. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Orikhovo-Vasylivka and made advances toward Minkivka, these claims remain unverified.
Toretsk
Both Ukrainian and Russian forces made recent advances in the Toretsk area. Russian forces attacked Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka, achieving a small gain in western Toretsk. Ukrainian forces successfully advanced in northern Toretsk, northeast of Druzhba, and in central Leonidivka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces continued their offensive in the Pokrovsk direction, advancing in eastern Udachne and reportedly capturing Baranivka. They launched attacks across multiple settlements including Vodyane Druhe, Berezivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Myrolyubivka, Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Shevchenko, Dachenske, and several others. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful counterattacks near Pokrovsk, despite being outnumbered. Russian forces suffered significant casualties in this area, with an estimated 7,000 personnel killed in action during January 2025.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced in the Kurakhove direction, particularly in central Andriivka and along the T-0515 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynopil highway. They conducted attacks near Shevchenko, Andriivka, Dachne, Kostiantynopil, and Zelenivka. While Russian sources claim additional advances, Ukrainian forces report that poor weather conditions are limiting Russian equipment use in the area.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced northwest of Vremivka in the Velyka Novosilka direction, conducting attacks near Novoocheretuvate, Vremivka, Novosilka, and Burlatske. Russian sources claim additional advances near Novyi Komar and in the Vremivka-Temyrivka area, though these gains remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have made new advances near Marfopil, southeast of Hulyaipole in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, according to a map from the Ukrainian General Staff.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
No ground combat was reported in the Kherson area.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a significant attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, particularly targeting a gas facility in Poltava Oblast. The assault included 19 missiles and 124 drones, with Ukrainian forces successfully intercepting 57 drones across multiple regions including Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and others. The strikes damaged infrastructure and a Naftogaz gas plant, forcing energy restrictions. According to Ukrainian aviation expert Anatoliy Khrapchynskyi, Russia is adapting its tactics, using a combination of drones and missiles to overwhelm air defenses, while shifting away from strategic bomber-launched missiles to tactical aircraft-launched weapons in anticipation of Ukraine’s F-16 deployment.
Russia launched an overnight aerial assault on Ukraine’s power grid targeting gas infrastructure in Poltava Oblast and damaging Naftogaz Group facilities. The attack forced emergency power outages, though these were lifted by 10:50 a.m. local time. This strike continues Russia’s pattern of targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which has already destroyed all of the country’s thermal power plants and most of its hydroelectric capacity.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that U.S. military support remains crucial for Ukraine’s defense, particularly for obtaining Patriot air-defense systems, as European aid alone cannot meet Ukraine’s security needs. Zelensky outlined plans to discuss Ukraine’s reconstruction with the U.S., including potential partnerships in natural resource development. He highlighted Ukraine’s significant uranium and titanium reserves, proposing joint extraction opportunities with Western allies while stressing this would be a mutual partnership, not a resource giveaway. He also mentioned exploring the possibility of storing U.S. liquefied natural gas in Ukraine’s underground facilities.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry is launching a trial site to test new demining technologies, including artificial intelligence applications. With over 139,300 square kilometers of land potentially contaminated with explosives, Ukraine faces a decade-long clearance effort estimated to cost $35 billion. While Defense Ministry specialists have cleared 30,000 square kilometers in the past two years, Ukraine remains the world’s most heavily mined country, with mines having killed 399 civilians and injured 915 since Russia’s invasion began.
President Trump has signed an executive order implementing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, effective March 12. This significantly impacts Ukraine, where metallurgical exports account for 57.9% ($503 million) of its exports to the U.S. Ukrainian Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko noted that while Ukrainian steel represents a small portion of U.S. imports, the tariffs will further strain major Ukrainian producers ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and Interpipe, already affected by the war.
Ukraine’s parliament voted with 261 out of 401 lawmakers supporting a bill to approve the €500 million ($516 million) purchase of two Russian-made VVER-1000 reactors from Bulgaria to be installed at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant as power units No. 3 and No. 4, which are part of a larger plan to build four new reactors – two Western-designed and two Soviet-style units, with President Zelensky supporting the deal as crucial for Ukraine’s energy independence particularly as the country faces ongoing Russian attacks on its power infrastructure, though some lawmakers, including Oleksii Honcharenko, criticized both the 15-year-old reactors as outdated and the decision to use Russian technology during wartime, as the equipment, which Bulgaria purchased in 2015, is intended to compensate for the loss of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in a country where nuclear power currently provides more than half of electricity needs, with the bill now awaiting President Zelensky’s signature.
According to the 2024 Bureaucracy Index, Ukraine ranks second in business-friendliness among European countries surveyed, despite having one of the highest bureaucratic burdens for starting new businesses. Opening a business in Ukraine takes significantly longer (64-79 hours) compared to Poland’s leading time of 19-24 hours. However, Ukraine performs well in ongoing business operations, requiring only 192 hours annually for industrial SMEs and 200 hours for hotels. The country’s main challenges include workforce management (40% of administrative costs), frequent legislative changes (35 in one year), and unsafe working conditions due to Russia’s missile attacks. Despite these challenges, Ukraine ranks better in administrative efficiency than Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Georgia.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 3 INJURIES: 23+
Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast killed two people and injured six others, while damaging six high-rise buildings and 12 houses.
Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast’s Zaporizhzhia and Polohy districts killed one person and injured two others.
A Russian airstrike hit the village of Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring six people, including a 12-year-old boy. The attack damaged a house. Three victims required hospitalization while others received treatment at the scene.
Russian forces attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with drones and artillery, injuring four people, including two women in Nikopol and two elderly residents in Marhanets. The attacks damaged multiple buildings across the region.
Russian attacks across Donetsk Oblast injured three people in the settlements of Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Leontovychi.
Ukrainian air defenses in Cherkasy Oblast shot down 17 Russian drones, but falling debris injured two men who were hospitalized in moderate condition.
A fire caused by falling drone debris damaged a non-residential building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district, while additional damage occurred to a kindergarten, two schools, and other buildings across Kyiv Oblast. No casualties were reported.
A Russian strike on Poltava Oblast damaged Naftogaz infrastructure, cutting off gas supplies to nine settlements in the Myrhorod district.
Ukrainian rescuers extinguished fires caused by Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast. (State Emergency Service / Telegram).
Ukraine’s Allies
US President Donald Trump revealed that Kyiv had “essentially agreed” to grant mineral rights, particularly rare earth elements, in exchange for continued US support, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scheduled to visit Ukraine to discuss this potential minerals trade deal with President Volodymyr Zelensky, who expressed openness to such an arrangement and acknowledged America’s significant support should have priority, while Trump, emphasizing his desire to end the conflict and linking future aid to these trade arrangements, claimed the deal would be worth approximately $500 billion – a figure that far exceeds both Ukraine’s pre-war GDP of $200 billion and total US aid of $183 billion – with Ukraine’s Center for Economic Strategy viewing the proposal positively as a way to integrate into global production chains, though Ukraine’s rare earth deposits (comprising 17 elements) remain classified and the specifics of how such a deal would be structured remain unclear, as this visit marks the first contact between Ukraine and Trump’s new administration, with Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg also scheduled to visit Ukraine on February 20, following the Munich Security Conference.
Japan has approved a grant of 8.8 billion yen ($58 million) to support Ukraine’s reconstruction projects through the Japan International Cooperation Agency. This adds to Japan’s substantial support of over $12 billion in various forms of assistance since Russia’s 2022 invasion, including a recently announced $3 billion loan backed by frozen Russian assets. The World Bank estimates Ukraine’s total reconstruction costs could reach $486 billion over ten years.
The U.S., U.K., and Australia have jointly sanctioned Russian cyber company Zservers for supporting the ransomware group LockBit in conducting widespread cyberattacks. The sanctions target company administrators Alexander Igorevich Mishin and Aleksandr Sergeyevich Bolshakov, freezing their assets and prohibiting U.S. financial transactions. The U.K. has additionally sanctioned four other Zservers employees. This action follows earlier sanctions against LockBit leaders, whose attacks have caused billions in losses across the U.S. and Europe. Any institutions conducting business with Zservers risk facing sanctions themselves.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth clarified during press conference in Stuttgart that while the U.S. plans to review its global troop deployment, it will not send troops to Ukraine. During his visit to U.S. European Command headquarters, Hegseth expressed support for President Trump’s commitment to a swift peace deal in Ukraine. He is scheduled to attend the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein summit) but, unlike during the Biden administration, is not expected to announce new military aid. Notably, for the first time since its establishment, the February Ramstein meeting was convened by the UK rather than the U.S., reflecting potential shifts in U.S. policy toward Ukraine under the Trump administration.
Russia News
The Russian State Duma voted to remove Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev from its Defense Committee, transferring him to the Regional Policy Committee. According to Kommersant, the removal was reportedly due to his controversial statements damaging to the Defense Ministry, including his proposal for a childless tax and his role in publicizing Major General Ivan Popov’s criticisms of military leadership, which led to Popov’s dismissal and criminal charges.
Russian authorities are cutting injury compensation payments for soldiers with minor wounds, according to Russian opposition outlet Verstka. At least 42 Russian regions and occupied Crimea have implemented a new tiered payment system, moving away from the previous 500,000-ruble ($5,181) blanket payment for all injured soldiers. This change aligns with a federal decree from November 2024 that established reduced payments for minor injuries. Some regions like Kamchatka Krai have recently adopted this system, while others like Amur Oblast already had similar policies in place. The move appears to be part of broader efforts by the Kremlin to reduce military spending amid concerns about the war’s long-term economic impact.
Russian officials are worried that Western sanctions are weakening Russia’s economic influence over neighboring countries and the Global South. Moscow plans to counter this by creating a Eurasian trade bloc to rival the U.S., EU, and China. While Belarus remains aligned with Russia, Kazakhstan has distanced itself by refusing to recognize Russian territorial claims in Ukraine and complying with Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan has become a key route for sanctions evasion. The report reveals that Western pressure has effectively hindered Moscow’s regional integration efforts, as Central Asian countries increasingly seek to bypass Russia in global markets.
Russia’s corruption ranking has hit a historic low, placing 154th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index. With a score of 22 points, Russia dropped significantly from its 141st position in 2023, with Transparency International citing the war in Ukraine as a factor in increasing authoritarianism and corruption. Meanwhile, Ukraine ranked 105th with 35 points, showing resilience in anti-corruption efforts despite the ongoing invasion. Moldova and Albania showed improvement in their rankings, reaching 76th and 80th place respectively. Denmark maintained its position as the least corrupt nation, leading the index for the seventh straight year.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1150
853030 |
Tanks +9
10023 |
Artillery +53
22976 |
Arm. Veh. +27
20871 |
Aircraft 
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia’s Allies
According to South Korea’s Defense Ministry, North Korea has sent approximately 200 long-range artillery units and substantial ammunition to Russia, with plans to deliver at least 150 KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles to Moscow in 2025, adding to their previous supply of artillery units, rocket launchers, and millions of artillery shells, while between 11,000-12,000 North Korean troops were deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast to support Russia’s war effort, with casualties estimated at 300 killed and 2,700 wounded according to South Korean intelligence, though Ukraine estimates up to 4,000 total casualties, and while troops were temporarily withdrawn, President Zelensky reported on February 7 that they have returned to Kursk Oblast following Ukraine’s new offensive in the region, with Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov confirming that about 8,000 North Korean troops remain fighting there, contradicting earlier media reports of their withdrawal, and in exchange for this military support, Russia is reportedly providing North Korea with technical assistance for nuclear submarines, ICBMs, missile systems, and drone production.
Hungarian Deputy Foreign Minister Levente Magyar visited Kyiv claiming that Ukrainian officials are conducting a “slanderous campaign” against Hungary and alleging discrimination against ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia Oblast. No evidence was provided for these claims. As a key Russian ally in the EU, Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban has consistently blocked aid to Ukraine, delayed sanctions against Russia, and minimized Russian aggression.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russian military bloggers report they face potential legal charges for discussing recent Ukrainian advances near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, particularly around Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka. The bloggers suggest Russian officials are trying to suppress information about these Ukrainian gains, possibly due to concerns about Western pressure regarding territorial negotiations. One blogger claimed these Ukrainian operations disrupted Russian plans for an offensive to capture Sudzha, a key gas transit hub in the region.
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed that Ukraine and Western allies are planning to blow up a ship in the Baltic Sea to provoke NATO intervention and to assassinate Russian opposition figures abroad. These accusations align with previous SVR patterns of alleging false-flag operations to discredit Ukraine, typically timed around critical Western discussions about Ukraine support and peace negotiations.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com