Summary of the Day:
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov opened communications about Ukraine in a phone call, as delegations from all three nations gathered in Saudi Arabia ahead of bilateral negotiations. At the Munich Security Conference, European partners reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s military efforts and defense industry development.
The Kremlin’s official statement declaring Ukraine lacks sovereignty appears designed to undermine future negotiations and potentially invalidate any agreements. This position was reinforced through Medvedchuk’s interview and Peskov’s statements, raising concerns about Moscow’s willingness to negotiate in good faith. In a separate diplomatic move, Moscow extended an invitation to US President Donald Trump to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade.
Russian forces advanced in multiple areas including Kursk Oblast, Kupyansk, Siversk, and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian forces made progress near Toretsk. Russia has redeployed additional troops to the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, suggesting a concentrated effort to pressure Kostyantynivka, the southernmost point of Ukraine’s “fortress belt.”
Western sources indicate the United States may ease sanctions on Belarus, despite its role as a crucial staging ground for Russian military operations against Ukraine and NATO, as well as its involvement in sanctions evasion schemes. This development comes as Russia appears committed to a multi-year campaign to seize Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast, further indicating Putin’s apparent lack of interest in achieving lasting peace.
Picture of the Day:
A woman holds a banner ‘Turning away from those who defended freedom is betrayal’ during a rally in support of Ukrainian POWs in Kyiv. Ukrainians continue to participate in the ‘Free Azov’ rallies in support of the captured defenders of Mariupol, which regularly take place in different Ukrainian cities. (hurricanehank / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
The Kremlin invited US President Trump to Moscow’s May 9 Victory Day parade, which marks the 80th anniversary of World War II’s end in 2025. Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov said Putin would welcome any head of state to the event. This invitation appears to be part of Putin’s broader strategy to portray Russia as a global superpower equal to the United States. Putin has historically used these parades to emphasize Soviet achievements while downplaying Western Allies’ contributions to the war effort, even claiming the Soviet Union fought alone. The potential attendance of a US president at this symbolically important event could significantly impact global diplomatic relations and peace efforts.
The US is reportedly considering easing sanctions on Belarus in exchange for the release of political prisoners, following a February 12 meeting between US Deputy Assistant Secretary Christopher Smith and Belarusian President Lukashenko. According to The New York Times, the deal could relax restrictions on Belarusian banks and potash exports. However, this potential relief raises concerns as Belarus serves as a critical staging ground for Russian military operations against Ukraine and NATO, while also helping Russia evade sanctions. Due to deep economic integration between Russia and Belarus through the Union State project, any easing of Belarusian sanctions would likely benefit Russia’s war effort.
In a concerning development for global security, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned of a “high risk” that Russia is preparing for a possible invasion of NATO countries, specifically Poland and Lithuania. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky revealed intelligence showing Russia is training 150,000 troops in Belarus for a potential large-scale operation by summer. This builds on a declassified Danish intelligence report suggesting Russia could launch a war on Europe within five years if NATO appears weakened or divided. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned such an attack would be “devastating” for Moscow.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski rejected the idea of a joint European Union army, responding to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for unified European armed forces at the Munich Security Conference. While opposing the merger of national armies, Sikorski supported expanding European defense capabilities and industry. He emphasized that Poland’s role would remain focused on protecting NATO’s eastern flank rather than deploying troops to Ukraine. The discussion emerges amid concerns over decreasing U.S. military support for Ukraine and Europe.
The Path to Peace
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to establish diplomatic communications regarding the Ukraine war. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported both sides agreed to work on restoring dialogue, removing trade barriers, addressing Middle East issues, and improving embassy operations.
A U.S. delegation led by Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, with Lavrov expected to arrive February 18. Ukrainian Economic Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has also arrived in Saudi Arabia, though separate US-Ukraine talks are planned when US Envoy Keith Kellogg visits Ukraine to meet President Zelensky. Trump aims to secure a ceasefire by Easter (April 20), though some consider year-end more realistic. Trump plans to meet Putin in Saudi Arabia, though no date has been set.
While Kellogg announced Europe’s exclusion from peace negotiations, prompting France to schedule an emergency summit for February 17, Rubio contradicted this, emphasizing that both Ukraine and Europe must be included in serious peace talks. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested Ukraine’s NATO membership is unlikely and questioned Ukraine’s ability to reclaim all its territory, including Crimea. US officials describe these initial meetings as “trust building,” with expectations for Russian territorial concessions and military commitments, while China and Brazil have called for global cooperation in promoting peace in Ukraine.
Russian rhetoric through Medvedchuk’s interview and Peskov’s statements suggests Moscow may be unwilling to negotiate in good faith, potentially setting up grounds to violate future agreements by questioning Ukraine’s authority to make them. Secretary of State Rubio noted that Putin expressed desire to end the war but must demonstrate this commitment through actions.
European leaders from Germany, UK, Italy, Poland, Spain, Netherlands, and Denmark, along with EU and NATO representatives, will meet in Paris on Monday for an urgent summit called by French President Emmanuel Macron to address concerns over US-Russia peace talks and Ukraine’s exclusion from initial negotiations in Saudi Arabia. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced Britain’s readiness to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a European-led peacekeeping force, pledging £3 billion annually in military aid through 2030 and introducing new support including artillery and the Gravehawk mobile air defense system. The proposed peacekeeping mission could require up to 100,000 troops, with forces potentially stationed behind Ukrainian lines rather than at the front.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb outlined a three-stage peace process at the Munich Security Conference, emphasizing Ukraine’s future EU and NATO membership cannot be compromised. His proposal includes initial negotiations backed by military aid and increased sanctions on Russia, followed by a ceasefire with international monitoring and humanitarian agreements, culminating in Ukraine’s full integration into Western alliances. Stubb also called for the EU to appoint a special envoy for Ukraine peace talks after Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg indicated Europe’s exclusion from negotiations, with Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic supporting the proposal for a respected negotiator to bridge differences between Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, and European capitals. The White House is quietly surveying European nations about their willingness to contribute troops and resources to potential peacekeeping efforts, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Europe must develop its own urgent action plan regarding Ukraine and security.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have made recent advances in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, with intense fighting reported around several settlements near Sudzha, including Sverdlikovo, Pogrebki, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Guyevo. While Russian forces have confirmed advances in southeastern Sverdlikovo, claims of additional territorial gains remain unverified. Notably, North Korean troops have returned to combat operations with modified tactics after previously withdrawing due to heavy casualties from Ukrainian drone strikes. A Ukrainian brigade reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful tank assault in the region.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive operations north and northeast of Kharkiv City targeting areas near Kozacha Lopan, Vovchansk, and Tykhe. While a Russian military blogger claimed advances in eastern Vovchansk, these claims remain unconfirmed, and no significant territorial gains have been reported.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces have intensified their operations in the Kupyansk direction, successfully crossing the Oskil River southwest of Topoli. Attacks were conducted across multiple settlements including Dovhenke, Zapadne, Doroshivka, Kindrashivka, Dvorichna, Fyholivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Novoosynove. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are taking advantage of frozen ground conditions to move equipment across the river, establishing small groups on the western bank to create a bridgehead.
Borova
Russian forces launched attacks around Borova targeting multiple settlements including Novoplatonivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zeleny Hai, Novoserhiivka, Novoyehorivka, and Hrekivka. Despite these offensive operations, no territorial advances were reported.
Lyman
Russian forces continued their offensive operations in the Lyman direction attacking settlements including Nove, Novolyubivka, Novomykhailivka, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, Terny, Torske, and Dibrova, as well as the Serebryanske forest area. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are deploying small groups of soldiers supported by drones rather than armored vehicles, though no territorial gains were achieved.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian military command has reportedly moved significant forces to the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk regions, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets. The redeployment includes an estimated 14,000-16,000 troops. These forces are expected to advance toward Kostyantynivka, a key point in Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” along the T-0516 Toretsk and T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highways. While a Russian servicemember’s footage confirms Russian forces moving towards Toretsk, there are no additional combat reports from either division in these areas yet.
Russian forces aim to eliminate Ukrainian positions around Stara Mykolaivka and along the H-20 Avdiivka-Kostyantynivka highway before advancing on Kostyantynivka from multiple directions. Russian troops are currently positioned about 22 kilometers south of Kostyantynivka near Vozdvyzhenka and 11 kilometers away in Toretsk. While Russian forces could potentially reach Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts by May 2025 if they maintain their current pace, this timeline is unlikely due to stronger Ukrainian defenses and weakened Russian units. Additional Russian reinforcements may be deployed to the area after completing operations near Andriivka and west of Kurakhove.
The Russian military appears to be planning a long-term campaign to capture Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting Putin is not seriously interested in lasting peace. According to Ukrainian military observer Mashovets, Russia has moved tank regiments to the Siversk and Chasiv Yar areas, while increasing activity near Lyman. These movements indicate Russia may be planning to pressure the key cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk from multiple directions while simultaneously advancing on Kostyantynivka from the south.
Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” consisting of the major cities Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka, forms a crucial 50-kilometer defensive line in Donetsk Oblast. Currently, Russian forces are positioned 25-30 kilometers from Slovyansk, 20 kilometers from Kramatorsk, and 9 kilometers from Kostyantynivka. Despite months of efforts, Russian forces have not yet captured Lyman, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, or Toretsk, which they must take before threatening the fortress belt. While Russia may attempt to isolate Kostyantynivka from the other cities, military analysts suggest the complete capture of the fortress belt is unlikely before 2026.
Russian forces are unlikely to maintain a prolonged assault on Ukraine’s fortress belt while conducting other military operations, according to recent analysis. After suffering significant losses in battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Russia’s current strategy of using infantry-heavy attacks against well-fortified Ukrainian positions appears unsustainable given their limited ability to replace troops and equipment. Despite these challenges, Russian President Putin appears committed to a long-term military campaign against Ukraine’s defenses in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting little genuine interest in diplomatic negotiations.
Siversk
Russian forces made recent advances near Siversk, conducting assaults in multiple directions including toward Dronivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Ivano-Darivka. Footage confirmed a small Russian advance in northern Bilohorivka, northeast of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar and nearby areas including Vasyukivka, Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora, but did not make confirmed advances. Russian sources claim their forces seized tactical heights east of Stupochky, though this remains unverified. Russian drone units are operating in the area.
Toretsk
Ukrainian forces made a small advance in northern Toretsk, while Russian forces continued attacks on Toretsk itself and nearby settlements of Dyliivka and Krymske.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Pokrovsk targeting numerous settlements including Tarasivka, Malynivka, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Dachenske, Kotlyne, Pishchane, Udachne, Uspenivka, Nadiivka, and Zaporizhzhia. While Russian sources claim advances in several areas, Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed Russian troops out of Pishchane. Russian forces are experiencing logistical challenges due to insufficient transport vehicles and Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes.
Andriivka
Russian forces advanced near Kurakhove, particularly around Ulakly where they conducted mechanized assaults. They launched attacks near Kostiantynopil, Oleksiivka, Andriivka, Dachne, Ulakly, Zelenivka, and Rozlyv, using up to 37 pieces of equipment. Russian sources claim advances along the H-15 highway and into several settlements, though Ukrainian forces reportedly launched counterattacks near Kostiantynopil and Ulakly.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces attacked around Velyka Novosilka targeting the town itself and nearby settlements of Novyi Komar, Burlatske, and Novosilka. Russian sources claim they used electronic warfare equipment in an assault on Novosilka and advanced to several locations, though these claims remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast targeting the settlements of Novoandriivka, Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, and Pyatykhatky. Despite these offensive operations, Russian forces failed to make any territorial gains in the region.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted ground attacks along the Dnipro River but made no advances. Russian military bloggers report their troops are struggling with a shortage of proper boats, forcing them to use old Soviet fishing vessels for frontline supplies and troop movement.
Ukraine News
Russia launched a major overnight attack against Ukraine using 143 drones and two ballistic missiles targeting multiple regions, with Ukrainian forces intercepting 95 drones across ten provinces and disrupting 46 through electronic warfare; the strikes severely damaged the Mykolaiv Thermal Power Plant, leaving over 100,000 residents without heat amid freezing temperatures, while nine Shahed drones damaged five high-rise buildings and injured one person, with additional civilian casualties reported in Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts and extensive damage to shopping centers and stores, as President Zelensky condemned the deliberately targeted civilian attacks, with Ukraine reporting a total of 479 drones and seven missiles intercepted between February 10-16.
A Russian strike on February 14 damaged the protective shelter and equipment at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Ukrainian authorities are still fighting fires at the facility a day later, with damage confirmed to both the inner and outer layers of the containment structure.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska arrived in the United Arab Emirates for an official visit following Zelensky’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference, beginning a regional tour that includes Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Upon arrival, they met with UAE officials, with Zelensky stating that returning Ukrainian captives home was their “top priority” and indicating the visit would focus on economic partnership, bilateral cooperation in investment, and a potential “large-scale humanitarian program” between the nations. Prior to Zelensky’s planned visit, delegations from Saudi Arabia and Ukraine met to discuss increased investment and bilateral cooperation, while senior U.S. and Russian officials are preparing to meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine, though Zelensky confirmed he has no plans to meet with either Russian or U.S. delegations during his Middle Eastern tour.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected a proposed U.S. agreement that would exchange Ukrainian rare earth minerals for military aid, calling the terms insufficient for Ukraine’s security needs. The draft agreement, presented by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on February 12, sought 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. A former senior Ukrainian official, speaking anonymously to AP, described it as a “colonial agreement.” While U.S. officials, including National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, urged Zelensky to accept the deal, Ukrainian officials noted that U.S. delegates at the Munich Security Conference offered no concrete security guarantees to protect the mineral deposits from Russian aggression. The White House criticized Zelensky’s decision as “short-sighted,” while U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed Ukraine “essentially agreed” to a $500 billion resource deal, though this appears to conflict with Ukraine’s current position.
Ukraine’s Allies
At the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Zelensky met with several European leaders to strengthen defense partnerships. In talks with German Chancellor Scholz and Rheinmetall CEO Papperger, discussions focused on joint ammunition production and air defense improvements. Meetings with Finnish, Dutch, Norwegian, and Swedish leaders centered on defense assistance and weapons production. Czech President Pavel announced continued ammunition support through April 2025, with reports indicating the Czech Initiative has already provided Ukraine with 500,000 artillery rounds. Ukrainian officials also met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss peace negotiations.
Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak met with US Presidential Envoy Richard Grenell to prepare for upcoming high-level meetings, with Grenell emphasizing Ukraine support as crucial for global stability. President Zelensky also met with a bipartisan US congressional delegation to discuss continued defense assistance and security guarantees.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian forces are blocking International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts from leaving the occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, according to Ukrainian officials. This marks the third time in 2025 that Russia has disrupted IAEA staff rotations at the facility.
Russia News
On the first anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s death in a Russian Arctic penal colony, his widow Yuliya Navalnaya and Western leaders condemned Russia’s ongoing political repression. Western nations, including Canada, France, Germany, and the UK, issued a joint statement holding Russian authorities responsible for Navalny’s death and criticizing the imprisonment of over 800 political prisoners. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Navalnaya warned against negotiating with Putin, while Western leaders highlighted Russia’s intensifying crackdown on dissent, particularly regarding opposition to the war in Ukraine.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops +1530
859920 |
Tanks +16
10089 |
Artillery +37
23222 |
Arm. Veh. +52
21063 |
Aircraft 
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Russia’s Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Ukraine lacks sovereignty and cannot be trusted in negotiations, citing Ukraine’s rejection of the 2022 Istanbul peace talks. Peskov blamed Ukraine for the invasion, falsely claiming it violated the Minsk agreements and abused Russians in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin also used state media to question President Zelensky’s legitimacy through an interview with pro-Russian former Ukrainian official Viktor Medvedchuk.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com