Summary of the Day – February 25, 2025
Vladimir Putin performs a diplomatic high-wire act: implicitly acknowledging Zelensky as Ukraine’s legitimate president while simultaneously launching information operations to destabilize him. Beneath Putin’s “friendly” rhetoric lies the unchanged goal of regime change in Ukraine. Meanwhile, a minerals deal materializes between Ukraine and the U.S., with Zelensky reportedly headed to Washington for a signing ceremony, even as Trump signals openness to similar deals with Putin. European leaders scramble to redefine continental security, with nuclear-armed France potentially deploying fighter jets to Germany. As North Korean delegations visit Moscow, the shape of a post-American security architecture in Europe begins to emerge—one that hinges on whether Trump’s vision of peace involves Ukrainian sovereignty or surrender.
Putin’s Paradox: Recognizing Zelensky While Undermining Him
In a surprising shift, Russian President Vladimir Putin implicitly recognized Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s president during an interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin. “Elections in Ukraine are not held under the pretext of martial law,” Putin stated—his first acknowledgment that Ukrainian law prohibits elections during wartime.
This rhetorical pivot comes as U.S. President Donald Trump insists the two leaders must negotiate. Yet beneath this apparent concession lies a calculated information operation: Putin claimed Zelensky is “toxic” for Ukrainian society and would lose any future election to other Ukrainian leaders, a transparent attempt to drive wedges between Ukraine’s government and its military.
“Putin is likely shifting his rhetoric to explain to Russian domestic audiences his decision to engage in any future negotiations with Zelensky,” military analysts noted. The Russian leader’s ultimate goals remain unchanged—he simply repackaged his demands for regime change, stating that Russia wants Ukraine to “turn into a friendly neighboring state” and not be “used as a springboard for an attack against Russia.”
The Mineral Rush: Trump, Zelensky, and Putin’s Three-Way Negotiation
“Ukraine has reached an agreement with the U.S. on a minerals deal,” Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna told the Financial Times, ending weeks of tense negotiations. Under the reported terms, Ukraine will contribute 50% of proceeds from the “future monetization” of state-owned mineral resources to a joint fund, while excluding resources currently contributing to Ukraine’s budget.
The deal reportedly drops earlier U.S. demands for a $500 billion claim over Ukraine’s natural resources, with Trump expecting Zelensky in Washington for a signing ceremony as early as February 28. When asked what Ukraine gets from the agreement, Trump bluntly stated: “military equipment and the right to fight on.”
Not to be outdone, Putin held a meeting with senior Kremlin officials specifically about developing Russia’s rare earth minerals industry, offering to make deals with the United States. “Russia has an ‘order of magnitude’ more rare earth materials than Ukraine,” Putin claimed, including resources from occupied Ukrainian territory in his sales pitch.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov made Moscow’s position clear: any U.S.-Russia cooperation on minerals can only begin after normalizing bilateral relations and achieving a peace settlement in Ukraine. “The Kremlin is framing any future US-Russian cooperation on rare earth minerals as conditional on the conclusion of a Russian-friendly peace deal on the war in Ukraine,” analysts noted.
Nuclear Shadows: France’s Bold Deterrent Proposal
As American commitment to European security wavers, France has proposed a dramatic escalation in continental defense—deploying jet fighters equipped with nuclear weapons to Germany. “Posting a few French nuclear jet fighters in Germany should not be difficult and would send a strong message,” a French official told The Telegraph.
The proposal comes as Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, urged Europe to boost its defenses and even consider a NATO alternative. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” Merz declared.
French President Emmanuel Macron, following his meeting with Trump, emerged without specific security guarantees regarding a plan to deploy European peacekeepers to monitor a future ceasefire in Ukraine. The proposed force would include 30,000 European troops backed by U.S. air power—but the critical American “backstop” remains nebulous.
“There is no definitive agreement as to how the U.S. will provide security assurances for peacekeeping forces in Ukraine,” a French official admitted, though they added: “There is no objection from President Trump to the Americans giving security guarantees.”
The Russian Empire Strikes Back: Budanov’s Warning
“The Russian Federation doesn’t see itself as a federation—it sees itself as an empire,” Ukraine’s intelligence chief Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov warned at a conference in Kyiv. The empire Putin envisions is modeled after the Soviet Union but with the addition of the Warsaw Pact countries, Budanov explained.
If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Budanov predicted that Poland would be its next target, followed by the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Bulgaria. “I’m telling you this directly,” he emphasized. “And there’s no need to fear it; you just need to be aware.”
This imperial ambition drives Russia’s need for a strategic pause, Budanov argued. “The Russian Federation understands that it is unrealistic to quickly achieve its strategic goal… Therefore, they need a pause” to regroup before pursuing their broader objectives.
Russia’s stated war goals remain unachieved despite diplomatic efforts, as Russia’s Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik admitted: “The objectives of the Special Military Operation have not yet been achieved.” These objectives include Russia’s failure to fully occupy Ukraine’s four illegally annexed regions and the need to ensure Kyiv no longer “poses a threat” to Moscow.
The North Korean Connection: Expanding Axis of Authoritarians
A high-ranking delegation from North Korea’s Workers’ Party arrived in Moscow on February 25 at the invitation of Russia’s ruling party, amid evidence that North Korea may be shipping more military supplies to Russia.
Commercial satellite imagery shows a 110-meter-long vessel entering and leaving North Korea’s Rason Port near the Russian border, with a line of containers roughly 100 meters long on the pier. The vessel reportedly unloaded containers on one side of the pier and loaded new ones on the other before departing—a pattern consistent with previous weapons transfers.
Ukraine’s intelligence chief Budanov previously reported that half of Russia’s ammunition now comes from North Korea, which has also begun delivering 170mm self-propelled artillery systems and 240mm multiple launch rocket systems to Russia, with plans to provide 148 ballistic missiles in 2025.
Europe’s Difficult Choice: Security Without America
The G7 remains deadlocked over a joint statement on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion due to disagreements with the U.S., particularly over language describing Russia as the “aggressor.”
“Canada and other countries don’t agree with the position that the U.S. advocated at the UN, particularly the resolution they brought up,” Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly stated, referring to the U.S. joining Russia and Belarus in voting against a UN resolution condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Germany’s finance minister, Joerg Kukies, firmly rejected any possibility of readmitting Russia to the G7 despite Trump saying he would “love” to see it happen. “The condemnation of the G7 of Russia’s war of aggression is very clear, especially on the third anniversary of Russia’s brutal attack,” Kukies affirmed.
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced plans to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, calling it “the largest sustained increase in British defense spending since the end of the Cold War.” The move will require cutting foreign aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of national income, reflecting the painful choices facing European nations as they prepare for a security environment without reliable American support.
The Battlefield Reality: Incremental Russian Gains Continue
Russian forces continued their grinding advance across multiple sectors of the front, with confirmed advances in the Kursk Oblast near Pogrebki, northwest of Tabaivka (southeast of Kupyansk), and southwest of Terny (northeast of Lyman). Ukrainian forces also made a confirmed advance west of the P-79 Dvorichna-Kupyansk highway.
In the Velyka Novosilka direction, Russian forces advanced in fields north and west of the settlement, with unconfirmed claims that they had seized Skudne and were surrounding Burlatske from two sides.
A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces are using donkeys to transport infantry near the frontline after suffering heavy equipment losses in early February. Russian forces are also deploying FPV drones with fiber optic cables to destroy Ukrainian heavy bomber drones.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry authorized a new high-speed FPV drone called “Vidmak” (Witcher), designed to intercept and destroy Russian vehicles. The compact yet powerful drones can operate day and night, identifying and tracking targets with high-speed maneuverability that allows them to chase down any wheeled Russian vehicle.
The Human Cost: Attacks on Kramatorsk
Russian forces attacked the city of Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, killing one person and injuring at least 16, including four children. The strike damaged at least 17 residential houses, a grim reminder of the war’s continuing toll on civilians.
Across the frontline, Russian attacks killed two civilians and injured 36 others over a 24-hour period, with Sumy, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Kyiv oblasts all reporting casualties.
The United Nations reported that the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine after three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion will be $524 billion over the next decade—2.8 times higher than Ukraine’s nominal GDP for 2024. Direct losses have reached $176 billion, with housing, transportation, energy, trade and industry, and education sectors suffering the most damage.
The Golden Gambit: Trump’s $5 Million Citizenship Path
As the U.S. relationship with Russia continues to warm, Trump unveiled a new “gold card” scheme offering a $5 million path to U.S. residency and citizenship for “people of wealth.” When asked if Russian oligarchs would be eligible, Trump responded: “Yeah, possibly. Hey, I know some Russian oligarchs that are very nice people.”
The initiative comes as the State Department reportedly requests exemptions to Washington’s freeze on foreign aid that would free up funds for Ukraine. These exemptions would extend beyond the U.S. waiver for “life-saving” programs, allowing Ukraine to receive funding for demining, narcotics control, and civil society projects.
Whether these exemptions will be granted remains uncertain. As one official noted, “programs that serve our nation’s interests will continue. However, programs that aren’t aligned with our national interest will not.”
Democracy’s Last Stand: Ukraine’s Parliament Addresses Elections
Ukraine’s parliament passed a resolution to hold elections after “a comprehensive, just, and sustainable peace is secured,” responding to Trump’s criticism of Zelensky as a “dictator” for not holding elections.
The resolution emphasizes that elections cannot be held under martial law, noting that Putin is “the only one who is responsible for making it impossible to hold free, transparent, and democratic elections in Ukraine with the participation of international observers.”
This defense of democratic principles comes as the war enters its third year with no clear end in sight. As Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told Western leaders gathered in Kyiv: “The best thing about heroes is that they always win at the end. And if they aren’t winning, then it’s not the end.”