Summary of the Day – February 26, 2025
As Ukrainian President Zelensky prepares for a high-stakes White House visit on February 28, the final terms of a controversial minerals agreement take shape—without the security guarantees Kyiv desperately seeks. Meanwhile, Trump declares Ukraine can “forget about NATO” while insisting Russia must make concessions, creating a diplomatic tangle that seems irreconcilable. In the shadows, Russian and American delegations arrange a second meeting in Istanbul, even as Lavrov rejects any ceasefire that doesn’t satisfy Moscow’s territorial demands. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces recapture the strategic village of Kotlyne near Pokrovsk while striking Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery with devastating precision, demonstrating that despite diplomatic uncertainty, Ukraine remains a formidable fighting force determined to shape its own destiny.
Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Diplomatic Chessboard
The Mineral Compromise: What Ukraine Gets—and Doesn’t Get
“I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond… we’re gonna have Europe do that… ’cause Europe is their next-door neighbor,” President Donald Trump declared at his first cabinet meeting. With these words, he confirmed what Ukrainian negotiators had feared: the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal would include no American security commitments.
The agreement, finalized after weeks of tense negotiations and expected to be signed during Zelensky’s Washington visit on February 28, creates a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” to which Ukraine will contribute 50% of future revenues from state-owned natural resources. Unlike earlier drafts demanding $500 billion or requiring Ukraine to repay U.S. aid at a two-to-one ratio, the final document focuses on future income, excluding “current revenue sources already part of the general budget.”
“Despite what is being said in the media, the agreement does not include any $500 billion debt, $350 billion, or $100 billion. Because that would be unfair to us,” Zelensky explained, emphasizing that security guarantees—though absent from this deal—will be “discussed in future rounds of negotiations.”
When asked what Ukraine gets from this bargain, Trump offered a blunt assessment: “Military equipment and the right to fight on.” The agreement states only that America “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace,” without specifics.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed the Cabinet’s approval of the deal, highlighting six key points: joint fund creation, Ukraine retaining resource ownership, 50% revenue sharing, U.S. financial contributions, exclusive use for Ukraine’s reconstruction, and alignment with European integration processes.
Trump’s Red Lines: NATO Off the Table, Sanctions Remain (For Now)
“You can forget about NATO. That’s probably the reason the whole thing started,” Trump stated flatly when asked what concessions Ukraine should make for peace. This direct rejection of Ukraine’s foremost security goal came alongside an unexpected stance on Russia: “I want to see if we make a deal first,” he said when asked about lifting sanctions against Moscow.
Trump’s position creates a glaring contradiction. While demanding Ukraine surrender its NATO aspirations (echoing Putin’s primary demand), he simultaneously insists that Russia “will have to make concessions,” without specifying what those might be.
Further complicating matters, Trump dangled the possibility of striking a similar minerals deal with Russia: “I’d like to buy minerals on Russian land too if we can… The rare earth, they have very good rare earth… It’s great for Russia too.”
French Finance Minister Eric Lombard revealed another dimension of Trump’s approach: European troops will guarantee any ceasefire, with American backup. “We want this ceasefire to be guaranteed by European countries with an American backup. And on that, President Trump said he would agree,” Lombard told Bloomberg.
The Moscow Mindset: No Compromise on Territory or Western Arms
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov laid bare Moscow’s uncompromising position: Russia will reject any peace deal involving continued Western arms provisions to Ukraine, and negotiations that freeze the current frontlines are “impossible” because Russia’s constitution stipulates its borders include all of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts—including major cities like Kherson, Kramatorsk, and Zaporizhzhia that remain under Ukrainian control.
This maximalist stance would require Ukraine to surrender approximately one million citizens to Russian rule—citizens living in areas Russian forces have been unable to capture through military means.
Lavrov confirmed that Russian and American officials would meet in Istanbul on February 27, continuing the diplomatic channel opened in Saudi Arabia on February 18. “I think the meeting will show how quickly and effectively we can move forward,” Lavrov said, emphasizing the goal of restoring embassy relations. A U.S. State Department spokesperson explicitly stated: “To be clear, there are no political or security issues on the agenda. Ukraine is not on the agenda.”
Russia’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik admitted the obvious: “The objectives of the Special Military Operation have not yet been achieved,” specifically citing Russia’s failure to fully occupy Ukraine’s four illegally annexed regions.
The European Response: Troops, Peacekeepers, and Nuclear Dilemmas
As U.S.-Russia talks progress without Ukraine or European participation, European leaders scramble to maintain relevance in the emerging security architecture. French Finance Minister Lombard revealed that European countries, including the UK, Germany, and France, are prepared to send troops to Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire.
“Of course, there is a long road ahead because a ceasefire has to be discussed primarily between President Zelensky and President Putin. But Europe and America can help,” Lombard said, noting that European forces would deploy only after a ceasefire is reached.
Meanwhile, French officials have proposed an even more dramatic escalation in continental defense: deploying nuclear-capable fighter jets to Germany. “Posting a few French nuclear jet fighters in Germany should not be difficult and would send a strong message,” a French official told The Telegraph, suggesting it could pressure the UK to follow suit.
Romania’s parliament passed a law allowing the country to shoot down drones violating its airspace, responding to multiple incidents of Russian drones crashing on Romanian territory during attacks against Ukraine. The legislation enables Romanian forces to “destroy, neutralize, or take control of” unmanned aircraft illegally crossing the border.
Poland’s Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that all civilian airports in Poland must be modernized for potential military use as transport hubs, evacuation points, or aid stations in an emergency—another sign of growing European concern about the reliability of American security guarantees.
The Battlefield Reality: Ukraine Recaptures Kotlyne, Strikes Russian Oil
Ukrainian paratroopers recaptured the strategic village of Kotlyne near Pokrovsk, the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade reported. Located approximately 10 kilometers west of the embattled city, Kotlyne’s strategic importance lies in its position along the T0406 highway connecting Pokrovsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
“If Russian troops occupied the settlement, they would have been able to access the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway,” the military noted. Russian forces had breached Ukrainian defensive lines in January and had occupied Kotlyne with elements of several brigades. The Ukrainian operation eliminated 275 Russian soldiers and wounded 203 others—roughly equivalent to two companies—during the preparatory phase alone.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces and military intelligence struck the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai, causing “at least 40 explosions and a fire, damaging oil refining equipment,” according to a HUR source. The facility, with an annual processing capacity of 12 million tons, plays a significant role in supplying fuel to the Russian military.
The overnight attack also targeted the Saky and Kacha military airfields in occupied Crimea, used by Russia to control airspace over the Black Sea and launch strikes on Ukrainian territory. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down 128 Ukrainian drones during the attack.
The Human Toll: Kulyk and Ivanchov, Victims of Russia’s Drone Terror
Journalist Tetiana Kulyk and her husband, surgeon Pavlo Ivanchov, were killed when a Russian drone struck their home in the Bucha district of Kyiv Oblast. Kulyk worked for the Ukrinform news agency, hosting “the Nation of the Invincibles” program and serving as editor-in-chief of the agency’s Multimedia Department.
“Tatiana Kulyk was a great journalist. She made many programs about our struggles and our heroes. Just yesterday, we were talking about preparing an interview with Kyrylo Budanov. She will forever stay in our hearts and in our memory,” said Serhii Cherevatyi, Ukrinform CEO.
Her husband, Ivanchov, was head of the Surgery Department at Bogomolets National Medical University and co-author of over two hundred scientific papers.
In Donetsk Oblast, Russian airstrikes on Kostiantynivka killed at least five civilians and injured 11 others, with guided bombs damaging or destroying 52 civilian sites, including more than 20 residential buildings.
Innovation Under Fire: Ukraine’s Quantum-Proof Battlefield Walkie-Talkies
While diplomats wrangle over Ukraine’s future, Ukrainian engineers are revolutionizing battlefield communications technology. Startup Himera has reinvented the humble walkie-talkie to withstand modern electronic warfare, with their G1 and G1 Pro models already in the hands of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
Now partnering with Canadian encryption startup Quantropi, Himera is integrating quantum-resistant encryption algorithms into their devices—preparing for the day when quantum computers might break standard military encryption.
“Radio communication, satellite, and video are the three really important data streams on the modern battlefield, and we’ve got a pathway to help with the encryption and security on each one,” said Jay Toth, Quantropi’s representative. The U.S. Air Force Research Lab is currently testing Himera’s radios, with results expected within a month.
The innovation represents a potential breakthrough for NATO forces as well. “The price point of a G1Pro is at a minimum five to ten times less expensive than most tactical radios on the market today,” Toth explained. “Every NATO nation I’ve talked to, every NATO Defense Ministry I’ve talked to did a double-take when I told them what the price point was.”
Ukraine’s Diaspora Dilemma: 5.2 Million Refugees Unwilling to Return
As the war enters its fourth year, Ukraine faces a growing demographic crisis: 53% of the 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees living abroad express unwillingness to return home, according to research from the Ukrainian Centre for Economic Strategy. If between 1.7 million and 2.7 million Ukrainians do not return, Ukraine’s economy could lose between 5.1% and 7.8% of its GDP.
The report reveals that 0.3 million more Ukrainians left the country in 2024 due to the war, with Russia’s intensified missile attacks, electricity shortages, and deteriorating living conditions pushing more to remain abroad. Adult men now make up 27% of refugees, up from 18% in January 2024—a concerning trend for a nation already struggling with military recruitment.
Germany hosts over 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees, while nearly 1 million have settled in Poland. Around 4.2 million Ukrainians in the EU have temporary protection status, creating what could become a permanent demographic shift with profound implications for Ukraine’s future.
The U.S. Aid Reality: Less Than Advertised
“The US government has valued its military aid to Ukraine at $65.9 billion, whereas our estimate places it at $18.3 billion,” economists from the Ukrainian think tank Economists for Ukraine revealed in a bombshell report. The actual aid turned out to be significantly lower for three reasons: the actual value of aging weapons and equipment is about 60% lower than officially claimed, many transfers have yet to occur, and approximately 25% of the military aid was actually loans—not grants.
This analysis contradicts Trump’s claim that Washington provided Ukraine with $350 billion worth of aid, a figure that appears to have no factual basis. The report calculates that the total monetary value of U.S. aid delivered to Ukraine’s government amounts to $50.9 billion, of which only $18.3 billion comprises military aid.
“The budgetary impact on the United States of supporting Ukraine has been negligible, at less than $17 billion per year – roughly the cost of maintenance and energy for federal buildings, or 0.25% of the federal budget in 2024,” the report states, challenging the perception that aid to Ukraine represents a significant burden on American taxpayers.
For perspective, French President Emmanuel Macron recently confronted Trump during their White House meeting: “To be frank, we paid 60 percent of the total effort,” he said, grabbing Trump’s arm to correct his mischaracterization of European support as mere loans.
As Ukraine faces perhaps its most critical diplomatic week yet, the truth about who has supported its defense—and to what extent—becomes increasingly important in shaping the terms of any potential peace deal.