As Russia Shells Kherson Energy Grid Amid Partial Truce, Trump Sets “Psychological Deadline” While Putin Demands Sanctions Relief and UN Control of Ukraine
Summary of the Day — April 1, 2025
Ceasefire efforts in Ukraine are faltering as Russia shelled Kherson’s energy grid despite the truce, cutting power to 45,000 residents. Trump set a “psychological deadline” for Putin while Russia demands sanctions relief before implementing even the Black Sea ceasefire. Russia rejected U.S. peace proposals for not addressing “root causes” and submitted alleged Ukrainian violations to international bodies. On the battlefield, Russian forces are expanding northeast of Lyman, potentially to seize Borova and the remaining 1% of Luhansk Oblast. Sweden and the Netherlands announced major aid packages totaling $1.6 billion and €2 billion respectively.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany Annalena Baerbock (L) and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha (R) honor the memory of fallen defenders of Ukraine at a makeshift memorial on the Maidan Nezalezhnosti Square in Kyiv. (Eduard Kryzhanivskyi / Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Psychological Deadline: Trump Sets Implicit Ultimatum for Putin
President Donald Trump declared on March 30 that there is an unspecified “psychological deadline” for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a general ceasefire amid continued Russian efforts to stall progress by holding the Black Sea ceasefire hostage to extract additional concessions. “It’s a psychological deadline,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “If I think [Russia] is tapping [the United States] along, I will not be happy about it.”
This statement follows Trump’s earlier expression that he is “angry and pissed off” at Putin for disparaging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy. Trump has threatened to impose secondary sanctions targeting Russian oil and buyers of Russian oil if Moscow prevents peace talks from progressing, warning of “a 25 percent tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all [Russian] oil.”
A bipartisan group of 50 U.S. senators (25 Republicans and 25 Democrats) proposed “hard-hitting” sanctions against Russia on April 1, suggesting a 500% tariff on imports from countries that purchase Russian energy products. The senators stated they “share President Trump’s frustration with Russia when it comes to obtaining a ceasefire, and support President Trump’s desire to achieve a lasting, just, and honorable peace.”
Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who met with Trump on March 29, has proposed April 20 as a deadline for a “full ceasefire without any conditions.” However, this timeline appears increasingly unrealistic given Russia’s continued demands for sanctions relief as a precondition for even implementing the limited Black Sea ceasefire agreement.
Ceasefire Violations: Russia Shells Kherson Energy Infrastructure
Russian forces are continuing to shell Ukrainian energy infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations over details of the ceasefire agreement on energy strikes, potentially exploiting vague or unfinalized terms to strike infrastructure with shorter-range artillery while refraining from longer-range cruise missile or drone strikes.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and Kherson Oblast Military Administration Head Oleksandr Prokudin reported on April 1 that Russian forces shelled energy infrastructure in Kherson City, leaving at least 45,000 residents without electricity. “This morning, another Russian strike damaged a power facility in Kherson, leaving 45,000 residents without electricity,” Sybiha stated at a news conference.
The foreign minister confirmed that Russian forces have repeatedly violated the energy infrastructure ceasefire since its announcement. “After Riyadh, one of the agreements with the U.S. was about not striking at energy infrastructure,” Sybiha noted, adding that Ukraine has recorded attacks against energy facilities in the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Poltava oblasts since March 25.
The energy infrastructure ceasefire is reportedly a moratorium on long-range strikes, but it remains unclear whether its terms prohibit striking energy infrastructure with shorter-range tube or rocket artillery. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had proposed a “temporary ceasefire in the sky” that would include “missile, bomb, and long-range drone” strikes, but the final terms have not been made public.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on April 1 that Russia has sent a list of alleged Ukrainian violations of the partial energy ceasefire to the U.S., the U.N., and OSCE. “The list of violations cited by (Defense Minister) Andrei Belousov at the Security Council meeting, we handed over to U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz,” he said, claiming the document proves Ukraine’s lack of credibility in adhering to agreements.
Root Causes: Russia Rejects U.S. Peace Proposals
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on April 1 that Moscow will not accept U.S. proposals to end Russia’s war against Ukraine in their “current form,” claiming they fail to address what Russia sees as the “root causes” of the conflict.
“As far as we can see, there is no place in them today for our main demand, namely to solve the problems related to the root causes of this conflict. It is completely absent, and that must be overcome,” Ryabkov told the Russian magazine “International Affairs.”
Ryabkov claimed that the Trump administration is attempting “some kind of scheme” to first achieve a ceasefire and then move to “other models and schemes” to end the war. He insisted that Russia has not seen the U.S. give Ukraine a “signal” to end the conflict.
The deputy foreign minister’s comments reinforce Putin’s recent effort to portray the current Ukrainian government as illegitimate and unable to engage in negotiations. Putin and Russian diplomats made thinly veiled demands in late March for regime change in Ukraine by establishing a “temporary international administration” under United Nations auspices—a proposal rejected by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who stated that Ukraine has a legitimate government that must be respected.
U.S. Department of State Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated on March 31 that Trump did not appreciate Russia’s suggestion to establish a “temporary administration” in Ukraine, emphasizing that “Ukraine is a constitutional democracy. Governance in Ukraine is determined by its constitution and the Ukrainian people.”
Lyman Bridgehead: Russia Creates Conditions for Further Advances
Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead northeast of Lyman as part of a mutually reinforcing effort to create conditions for the seizure of Borova and Lyman in the coming months. Footage published on March 28 and geolocated on April 1 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Novolyubivka (northeast of Lyman) and likely seized Novolyubivka itself.
Russian forces advanced across the Zherebets River onto the west (right) bank in early January 2025 and have slowly expanded their bridgehead over the last three months. Elements of the Russian 144th and 3rd motorized rifle divisions (20th Combined Arms Army, Moscow Military District) have been credited with making the initial advances and expanding the bridgehead.
The Russian military appears to be leveraging a significant manpower advantage to make advances in the area. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction stated that Russian forces have almost exclusively conducted infantry assaults in the area since January 2025, rarely using armored vehicles. Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces reported that Russian forces intensified infantry attacks in the Lyman direction and have significantly more infantry in the area, mostly including well-trained contract servicemembers.
This expanded bridgehead could support Russian operations against Borova or Lyman. Russian forces initially focused on advancing from Ivanivka towards Kolodyazi in the general direction of Lyman but recently appear to have refocused their efforts on advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Nove and Katerynivka in the general direction of Borova.
The bridgehead may also help Russia seize the remaining one percent of Luhansk Oblast under Ukrainian control—about 266 square kilometers—which would complete Russia’s long-standing goal of controlling the entire oblast. Russian forces first seized all of Luhansk Oblast on July 3, 2022, but Ukrainian forces later pushed Russian forces back during Ukraine’s Fall 2022 counteroffensive. The Kremlin would likely exploit the second seizure of Luhansk Oblast to gain leverage during ongoing ceasefire negotiations and future peace talks.
Drone Defense: Netherlands and Sweden Boost Ukraine’s Arsenal
The Netherlands announced on March 30 that it is allocating 500 million euros (roughly $541 million) for Ukraine’s Drone Line project that aims to integrate drone and ground operations in the Ukrainian military. This package is part of the Netherlands’ two billion euros (roughly $2 billion) accelerated support package planned for 2025.
Ukrainian Defense Ministry officials plan to deliver 15,000 robotic systems to the battlefield in 2025, a significant increase from the previous year. One of the key systems being deployed is the domestically developed “Lyut” ground robotic complex, designed for surveillance and fire support, equipped with a 7.62mm machine gun and sensors that allow it to detect and engage targets in both day and night conditions.
Meanwhile, Sweden announced on March 31 its largest military aid package to Ukraine to date, worth roughly 16 billion Swedish kronor (about $1.6 billion) to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense, artillery, satellite communications, and naval capabilities. The Swedish package includes 9.2 billion Swedish kronor (roughly $920 million) for the supply of materiel from the defense industrial bases of Sweden, other Nordic states, and European states; over five billion Swedish kronor (roughly $500 million) in financial donations to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group; and roughly 500 million Swedish kronor (roughly $50 million) worth of materiel donated from the Swedish military.
On the same day, Latvia’s Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced his country would provide 1,500 combat drones to Ukraine as part of a broader commitment to deliver 12,000 drones worth 17 million euros in the first half of 2025 through the international drone coalition.
Strategic Advances: Russian Territorial Gains Slow but Continue
Russian forces’ advance into Ukraine has slowed significantly in the past few months, with Moscow seizing just 133 square kilometers in March, the lowest monthly total since June 2024, according to battlefield monitoring group DeepState. The pace of Russia’s offensive had steadily increased since July 2024, peaking in November when Russian troops captured 725 square kilometers, but gains have consistently declined since the beginning of winter.
Despite this slowdown, Russian forces continue to make strategic advances in several key areas. Beyond the bridgehead expansion near Lyman, recent Russian gains include:
- Seizing Veselivka in Sumy Oblast north of Sumy City and advancing in central Gogolevka in Kursk Oblast southwest of Sudzha, based on geolocated footage published on April 1.
- Advancing along the P-79 Kupyansk-Dvorichna highway and in fields northeast of Kindrashivka north of Kupyansk, based on geolocated footage published on March 30-31.
- Seizing Rozlyv southwest of Kurakhove, with the Russian Ministry of Defense crediting elements of the Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment with the capture.
- Advancing in central Novosilka west of Velyka Novosilka, according to geolocated footage published on March 30.
These advances, while incremental, demonstrate Russia’s continued ability to make tactical gains despite the overall slowdown in territorial acquisition. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on March 31 that while Russia is concentrating its main offensive efforts on the Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are “stalling” and failing to advance in that area.
Baltic Security Concerns: Finland Prepares for Potential Threats
Finland announced on April 1 that it will withdraw from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines and increase its defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2029, according to President Alexander Stubb. Military spending will rise from 2.41% in 2024 to 3% by 2029 as part of the country’s broader defense strategy.
“This is a part of Finland’s contribution to Europe taking greater responsibility for our own defense,” Stubb posted on social media. The decision to withdraw from the Mine Ban Treaty followed a comprehensive assessment by Finland’s ministries and Defense Forces and marks a significant shift in defense policy among NATO’s front-line states.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland had previously announced on March 18 that they would also withdraw from the Ottawa Convention to enhance their defenses against potential Russian aggression. These decisions reflect growing concerns among Eastern European and Baltic nations about the security implications of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
Estonia’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, warned that Russia would redistribute its forces very quickly in the event of a truce in Ukraine, meaning “the threat level will increase significantly very quickly.” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė has similarly warned that Moscow would use time after a ceasefire to speed up its military buildup.
According to Pevkur, of the approximately 600,000 Russian soldiers believed to be in Ukraine, around half would likely be redeployed following any peace agreement. He warned against relocating NATO troops from their current positions on the alliance’s eastern flank to police a peace agreement: “We cannot fall into the trap that our forces are somehow fixed in Ukraine. Then we will have risks at our border.”
Minerals Negotiation: Ukraine and U.S. Continue Talks
Ukraine received the text of the U.S.’s expanded deal on mineral resources on March 28 and carried out the first round of consultations with U.S. partners, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed on April 1. “Ukraine was ready to sign the previously developed framework agreement. Now we have received a proposal for development and a new text of the agreement,” Sybiha said at a press conference.
President Volodymyr Zelensky clarified that the minerals deal being negotiated with the U.S. does not mention Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, contrary to implications made by U.S. President Donald Trump. “As for this agreement and the NATO question, there is no mention of NATO in this agreement, and there never was,” Zelensky said. “A decision (regarding the deal) will be made in the coming days.”
Trump had claimed on March 30 that Zelensky was looking to back out of the critical minerals agreement with the United States. “He’s trying to back out of the rare earth deal and if he does that, he’s got some problems, big, big problems,” Trump told reporters. “He wants to be a member of NATO, but he’s never going to be a member of NATO. He understands that.”
Zelensky added that Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU remain an ongoing topic of discussion. He has previously said that Ukraine would not agree to any minerals deal if it compromised the country’s path toward EU membership: “As for the EU issue… we are linking it. When we talk about this agreement, it cannot go against… our future accession to the EU, so it is important that nothing should contradict.”
While Ukraine and the U.S. continue negotiations over the minerals deal, Russian officials are attempting to undermine it by promoting potential U.S.-Russian rare earth mining projects. Washington and Moscow have reportedly begun discussions on projects related to Russian rare earth minerals, according to Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
Looking Ahead: Coalition Meeting and Peace Prospects
Countries participating in the Coalition of the Willing are set to meet in Ukraine on April 4, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on April 1. “(We) will hold a meeting on Friday, there will be a meeting of our military teams among several countries, a narrow circle of countries. Those who will be ready to deploy a contingent in one form or another,” Zelensky said.
The visit will be “the first in-depth meeting” of the coalition, which has met previously in other European countries or virtually. The coalition is a group of countries that have pledged peacekeeping troops and other security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential ceasefire.
Several countries, including France and the U.K., which lead the coalition, have pledged to send troops on the ground to enforce a potential ceasefire. France is reportedly advocating for a European-led deployment along the Dnipro River, while other proposals include stationing forces in western Ukraine or a neighboring country.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told The Kyiv Independent on April 1 that Ukraine’s allies must impose stricter measures on Russia “sooner than later” to prevent Moscow from dragging out peace talks and escalating its demands. “We haven’t seen in history that Russia, without exact pressure, would agree on anything,” he said.
As diplomatic efforts continue, the European Union launched the Ukraine2EU program worth 16.7 million euros ($18 million) to support Ukraine’s preparation for EU membership. The three-year program will provide strategic support to Ukrainian institutions and civil society involved in European integration efforts, with a goal of EU membership by 2030.
In the meantime, Russian forces have conscripted 160,000 new recruits in their spring draft—the largest such campaign in 14 years. The decree states that men aged 18 to 30 are subject to a 10-month conscription period but specifies that conscripts will not serve in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, or Kherson oblasts and will not conduct “special military operation tasks.”