As Israel Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Heart and Russia Prepares Strategic Reserves, Ukraine Faces a Perfect Storm of Diverted Attention and Rising Oil Revenues for Moscow
Summary of the Day – June 13, 2025
The global security landscape shifted dramatically on June 13 as Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” a massive preemptive strike targeting Iran’s nuclear program that killed top military commanders including the architect of Tehran’s drone supplies to Russia. The 200-aircraft assault, involving 330 munitions across 100 sites, sent oil prices soaring over 10%—a windfall that could inject desperately needed revenue into Russia’s war machine just as Moscow prepares strategic reserves for conflicts beyond Ukraine. While Ukrainian forces brought home 1,200 fallen soldiers, secured another billion euros in EU aid, and appointed a new NATO mission chief, the Middle East explosion threatens to eclipse Ukraine’s struggle for international attention at a critical moment when Western focus and resources may shift toward a new regional conflagration.
Operation Rising Lion: Israel Eliminates Iran’s Drone Architect
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s televised address at dawn marked a seismic shift in Middle East dynamics. “Operation Rising Lion” had begun—200 aircraft dropping 330 munitions on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the main enrichment facility at Natanz. The strike killed Iran’s aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the very architect of Tehran’s drone partnership with Russia that has terrorized Ukrainian cities for nearly three years.
President Trump revealed the United States knew about Israel’s plans in advance but emphasized Washington was not involved. “Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table,” Trump told Fox News. “There are several people in leadership that will not be coming back.”
Hajizadeh had been sanctioned by the European Union in 2022 specifically for overseeing Iran’s supply of Shahed-type drones to Russia. His death removes a key figure in the military-industrial pipeline that has fed Moscow’s nightly aerial assaults on Ukraine since late 2022. The commander was also known for his role in the January 2020 downing of a Ukrainian civilian aircraft, which killed all 176 people on board.
Iran’s response was swift but futile. Tehran launched over 100 drones against Israel in retaliation, all intercepted outside Israeli airspace according to military spokesperson Effie Defrin. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed “severe punishment,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified the strikes represented a “unilateral action” by Israel.
“Certain Iranian hardliners spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “They are all dead now, and it will only get worse!”
Oil Prices Surge: Putin’s Unexpected Economic Lifeline
The Israeli strikes delivered an unintended gift to Vladimir Putin’s struggling economy. Brent crude prices surged from $69.36 to $74.50 per barrel within hours—the highest levels since February—while forecasters warned of potential spikes to $80. For Russia, whose energy sector comprises 35-40% of budget revenues, the price jump represents a crucial lifeline after Ural crude had dropped 14% year-on-year through May.
“The Russian budget is directly dependent on oil price,” Warsaw-based energy analyst Wojciech Jakobik observed. “The higher it is the better it is for the Russians.”
The surge threatens to undermine Western sanctions efforts just as the G7 prepares to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel. David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, warned that rising prices could force G7 nations to “pause their current attempts to lower the price cap,” a development that “would also be welcomed by the regime in Moscow.”
Ukrainian officials acknowledged the double-edged nature of Middle East instability. While expressing concern over regional escalation, Kyiv’s Foreign Ministry noted that “the Iranian regime supports Russia in its illegal war of aggression” and provides Moscow with “weapons to kill Ukrainians.”
Putin’s Diplomatic Theater: Condemning Israel While Waging War
Russian President Putin seized the Middle East crisis as an opportunity to project influence, conducting separate phone calls with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within hours of the Israeli strikes. The conversations occurred just hours after Russia launched its own missile and drone assault on Ukraine, killing at least four civilians and injuring 24.
During his call with Pezeshkian, Putin expressed condolences for what the Kremlin described as “numerous civilian casualties” and condemned Israel’s actions as violations of the UN Charter and international law. With Netanyahu, Putin emphasized “the importance of returning to the negotiation process” and offered Russian mediation.
Russian Foreign Ministry statements condemned Israel’s “unprovoked military strikes” as “categorically unacceptable,” while claiming the timing undermined diplomatic efforts to resolve Iran’s nuclear program. First Deputy Defense Committee Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlev claimed Russia’s ties with Iran “can become closer if necessary.”
The diplomatic theater allows Putin—himself indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Ukraine—to position Russia as a responsible global actor despite waging the largest European conflict since World War II. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi delivered a pointed response: “One of those awkward moments when the Russian Foreign Ministry comments on the Middle East but forgets to look at the mirror.”
Strategic Reserves and Rearmament: Russia Prepares for Expanded Conflict
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha’s warning at the Globsec conference in Prague carried ominous implications. Intelligence indicates Russia has begun preparing strategic military reserves “for combat operations not only in Ukraine,” he revealed.
“Putin only understands strength, and right now it’s crucial to apply sanctions in a timely manner, using them as economic weapons to pressure Russia,” Sybiha declared.
The revelation coincides with Putin opening discussions about Russia’s State Rearmament Program for 2027-2036, focusing on modernizing air defense, space, drone, and robotic systems. Putin claimed Russian air defenses have downed over 80,000 air targets since February 2022, including 7,500 operational-tactical and cruise missiles—”almost all” Western-manufactured.
Russian defense spending has surged to 6.3% of GDP, the highest level since the Cold War. Putin emphasized developing spacecraft to increase reconnaissance capabilities and integrating advanced digital technologies and artificial intelligence into military systems.
Ukraine’s Diplomatic and Financial Progress Amid Global Turmoil
While international attention shifted toward the Middle East, Ukraine secured crucial diplomatic and financial victories. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced receipt of another 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in macro-financial assistance from the European Union—the fifth tranche under the ERA (Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration) initiative, bringing total EU assistance under the program to 7 billion euros.
The ERA mechanism represents part of a $50 billion G7 program supporting Ukraine through loans repaid using future income from frozen Russian assets. “Together, we will make (Russia) pay for all the damage caused to Ukraine,” Shmyhal declared.
President Zelensky simultaneously appointed Aliona Hetmanchuk as head of Ukraine’s mission to NATO, replacing Nataliia Halibarenko at what Hetmanchuk called “a critical time for the future of Ukraine, for the future of NATO itself.” The founder and director of the New Europe Center brings extensive foreign policy expertise ahead of the crucial NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte affirmed that Ukraine’s “irreversible path” into NATO remains unchanged, even if not explicitly mentioned in the upcoming summit’s final communique.
Homecoming and Denials: Bodies Return as Border Claims Are Disputed
Ukraine brought home the bodies of 1,200 soldiers and citizens under an Istanbul agreement with Russia, following an earlier return of 1,212 fallen service members. Moscow expressed readiness to release remains of some 6,000 Ukrainians total during recent peace talks, though over 5,000 Ukrainians have been returned from Russian captivity since March 2022 while Russia continues to resist comprehensive exchanges.
Ukrainian military spokesmen delivered a firm rebuke to New York Times reporting suggesting Russian forces had crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for the first time since the war began. Victor Tregubov of the Khortytsia group categorically denied the claims, with press officer Andrii Zadubinnyi stating: “No enemy incursion into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been recorded. We refute this information.”
The denial reflects Ukrainian sensitivity about territorial integrity claims regarding the major industrial region that has faced constant attacks but no confirmed ground incursions. Russian forces remain “only a couple of kilometers from the border,” according to Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState, while Russia’s Defense Ministry had claimed on June 8 that its forces entered the Oblast.
Ukrainian Military Operations: Precision Strikes and Domestic Production
Ukrainian forces demonstrated continued offensive capabilities with a MiG-29 fighter jet precision strike against Russian positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction, targeting a command post for drone operators and a combined ammunition and fuel depot using Western-supplied guided munitions. “We thank our partners for their highly accurate and effective ‘arguments’,” the Air Force wrote, releasing video footage.
The night brought explosions across occupied Crimea as Ukrainian drones struck Russian military facilities. Pro-Ukrainian Atesh partisans reported “precise hits” near Simferopol, claiming damage to “probably an air defense missile system” and losses among troops. Russia claimed intercepting 125 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 70 over Crimea—suggesting one of Ukraine’s largest single-night barrages against the peninsula.
Alleged footage of a smoke rising near Simferopol, Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine. (Crimean Wind/Telegram)
Ukraine’s domestic defense production achieved a milestone as the Sapsan ballistic missile entered serial production after successful combat testing. The 480-kilogram payload missile struck a Russian target at nearly 300 kilometers range during May testing, representing crucial progress in defense self-sufficiency as Western partners remain slow in delivering adequate long-range weaponry.
President Zelensky had announced in November 2024 that Ukraine produced its first 100 missiles, part of broader domestic production increases that now account for over 40% of front-line weapons, including 95% of drones used at the front.
Aerial Incidents and Equipment Losses
British fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft that violated Baltic Sea airspace on June 13 morning, with Poland’s military command reporting the incident as “another case of provocative testing of NATO readiness.” The Russian aircraft, equipped with radar and signal intelligence gear, was promptly met by two British jets operating from Poland.
A Russian Su-25 fighter jet reportedly crashed over Donetsk Oblast, according to Russian social media channels. Videos appear to show the plane crashing after being closely followed by another fighter jet, sparking speculation about potential “friendly fire.” The incident comes less than two weeks after Ukraine’s “Operation Spider Web” struck 41 Russian heavy bombers at four airfields.
Western Political Pressures: Trump’s Revisionism and European Preparations
President Trump’s June 12 White House press conference delivered startling validation of Kremlin propaganda narratives about World War II. “He lost 51 million people. He fought with us in World War II,” Trump said of Putin. “And now everybody hates Russia and loves Germany and Japan. It’s a strange world.”
Trump’s comments echoed Kremlin revisionism that downplays non-Russian Soviet casualties—particularly sensitive for Ukraine, which lost over 10 million people during the war. “We were your ally,” Trump quoted Putin as saying. “Now everybody hates Russia.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced sharp bipartisan criticism during congressional testimony, struggling to defend the administration’s Ukraine policy while denying reports of paused cyber operations against Russia. “Russia must be stopped!” declared Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. “A Russian victory in Ukraine would also be a victory for China, North Korea, and Iran.”
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Europe must prepare for gradual reduction in U.S. military support. “We now have to look at how much support drops and whether Europeans can compensate for it,” Pistorius said, following Hegseth’s announcement of reduced Ukrainian assistance in next year’s budget.
European Solidarity and Military Transformation
European Union interior ministers unanimously approved extending temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 2027, covering 4.3 million registered Ukrainians. “While Russia continues to terrorize Ukrainian civilians, the EU continues to show its solidarity,” said Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak.
European financial institutions are simultaneously embracing defense sector financing, abandoning decades of treating weapons manufacturers as reputational risks. Major banks including BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and ING are preparing to support Europe’s defense boom, with the European Investment Bank working on 20 defense-related projects.
“Defense is going to be a very good business—there is a massive flow of money coming,” concluded Diego de Ojeda, head of the European Commission’s Unit for Defense and Preparedness.
NATO is considering combining its ballistic missile shield with other integrated defense assets on the eastern flank for the first time, suggesting a shift from Iran-focused defenses toward deterring Russian capabilities. Secretary General Mark Rutte has called for a “quantum leap” in defense investment, urging 400% increases in air and missile defense capabilities.
Transnistrian Tensions and Frontline Dynamics
Moldovan President Maia Sandu warned that Russia may instigate a crisis in occupied Transnistria to destabilize the country before September parliamentary elections. The warning follows the region’s emergency declaration due to gas supply cuts after Gazprom halted deliveries. “Russia may promise assistance in exchange for votes,” Sandu said, noting that Transnistria rejected a 60-million-euro EU energy aid package under Moscow pressure.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continued intensive combat across multiple fronts, with confirmed advances by both sides. Ukrainian forces recaptured positions near Toretsk, while Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast, near Chasiv Yar, and northwest of Velyka Novosilka. Military spokesmen reported Russian tactical adaptations toward motorcycles, small infantry groups, and fiber optic drones rather than large, mechanized assaults.
The Convergence of Crises: Looking Ahead
The interconnected nature of global security challenges became starkly apparent on June 13. Israel’s strike eliminated a key architect of Russia’s drone supply while potentially providing Moscow with oil revenue windfalls. European attention risks shifting from Ukraine to the Middle East just as Russia prepares strategic reserves for expanded operations.
The Middle East explosion offers Putin multiple advantages: diverted Western attention, reduced pressure for ceasefire agreements, higher oil revenues, and opportunities to project influence as a regional mediator. For Ukraine, the timing could hardly be worse—coming as domestic production capabilities grow but Western support potentially diminishes.
The convergence suggests 2025 may witness the first truly global test of the post-Cold War international order. Whether Ukraine’s allies can maintain focus and resources amid multiplying crises will determine not just the war’s trajectory, but the broader architecture of international security for decades to come.